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May 2024 Circana (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Friday, July 5 [RESULTS IN]

Welfare

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Scholar Archivist Staff
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NEW RULES + EXPLANATION
Because Michael Pachter of Wedbush Securities decided to stop subscribing to NPD last year, access to retail NPD appears to have been massively limited. Whether that's due to firms getting NPD through Pachter or agreeing with him that NPD data is worthless without digital sales (only video game companies that are on the digital board have access), leaks of hardware numbers might've dried up.

Fear not! I have a plan to remedy this set back so that this game can live on spirit. We will be transitioning away from predicting hardware units by console and instead be predicting Total Video Game Hardware Revenue and Order of Consoles.

Every month NPD releases hardware revenue along with which console was in first place. We can always ask Mat Piscatella for the #2 console if he doesn't initially provide it.

How This Will Work
Predict how much revenue will be generated by Hardware for the given month as such

Good/Bad Formatting
Code:
Good                Bad
[REV] 405M          [REV] 400.5 million
[REV] 405,000,000   [REV] 405.000.000
[REV] 405000000     [REV] - 405000000

Then: Predict the order of each console FOR REVENUE as such

1. [NSW]
2. [PS5]
3. [XBS]

THE ABOVE IS IMPORTANT

The above is how you rank each console in terms of REVENUE. If you put NSW at 1., you are predicting NSW will be #1 in revenue.

Points
Hardware Revenue will be 50 points and follows how the hardware unit points work.

50 points * (percentage of correct revenue for hardware); anything over 100% difference = 0 points.

Correct Order would be the following in points.

If #1 correct = 18
If #2 correct = 10
If #3 correct = 7

If All Three correct = 15


That would be a total of 50 points to earn from console placements.

100 points in total to earn a month from the above two, plus bonus points for finishing in the Top 10 of hardware revenue.

#1 - 17 points
#2 - 13 points
#3 - 11 points
#4 - 9 points
#5 - 7 points
#6 - 5 points
#7 - 4 points
#8 - 3 points
#9 - 2 points
#10 - 1 point

Tradition Is Dead?
Not exactly. You will still put numbers down as if the game never changed. This will be your Unit ranking. Because I don't know if/when numbers will be made available again, there's always the potential they pop up again. If that happens, I want all of us to still make predictions as we have in the past.

RECAP
The 1.2.3. placements are how you will be ranking each platform for revenue. So if it's revealed PS5 was #1 in revenue and you had PS5 as 1., you get points for that.

The "traditional" predictions for unit sales will be separate to that. You can put whatever number you want there. You could have PS5 as 1. for revenue, but say you aren't sure about units and want to hedge your bets on Xbox being the actual unit lead. Example prediction below:

1. [PS5] 200K
2. [XBS] 300K
3. [NSW] 100K

This user has PS5 winning revenue, but Xbox for units. This is a valid prediction. How points are calculated are still the same 50 points assigned, but like this.

Each ranking still has the same value, If #1 correct = 18, If #2 correct = 10, If #3 correct = 7. If the revenue and unit results have the same placements, then nothing changes.

If revenue and unit placements/results are different, then points will be halved. Take the above example and we'll say the actual results are PS5 > XBS > NSW in both revenue and units.

The above predictor would get 9 points for predicting PS5 on top of revenue, but not the full 18 due to the unit placement. They would get 5 points for XBS for the same reason as PS5, then 7 points for NSW.

There are also bonus points for the both unit and revenue rankings being correct = 15.



ITT, predict for the Circana May 2024 retail period (May 05, 2024 - June 01, 2024) for U.S. hardware REVENUE and UNIT placements.

What is Circana?: Circana is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the Circana hardware sales will be for the most recent month. Circana months are defined by the National Retail Federation (find calendar links here).
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales followers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations. (Only used for Hardware Units)
Why are there still predictions when official Circana numbers are not released?:
Despite not receiving numbers from Circana directly since 2010, we have always found ways of obtaining them, whether through official company PR or leaks. These threads are also a place for the community to discuss the upcoming releases and current state of the US market as well as potential impacts in the future. In the end, it's for fun!

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EST on Friday, July 05. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

Circana Coverage: May 05, 2024 - June 01, 2024 (4 weeks, April was 4 weeks)
Circana Results Release: Monday, July 08 @ 9 a.m. EST? (PR + thread posted Monay, July 08 around 9 a.m EST)

Format:

[REV]

1. [NSW] XXX
2. [PS5] XXX
3. [XBS] XXX

Note: Combined totals for multi-SKUs. e.g. PS5 physical and digital edition total go under PS5. Xbox Series X and Xbox Series S total goes under XBS.

Good/Bad Formatting
Code:
Good                Bad
[REV] 405M          [REV] 400.5 million
[REV] 405,000,000   [REV] 405.000.000
[REV] 405000000     [REV] - 405000000

Code:
Good              Bad
[XBS] 1200K       [XBS] 1.2 million
[XBS] 1,200,000   [XBS] 1.200.000
[XBS] 1200000     [XBS] - 1200000

Potential hardware impacting events in April:
[4 Weeks] [GameStop] Save $25 When You Buy $250+ In-Store Or Buy Online & Pick Up In-Store (December 2 - TBD)

[PS5] [3 Weeks] [Walmart] Spider-Man 2 bundles restocked
[PS5] [1 Week] Temporary Price Cut: PS5 Slim Standard Edition $499 > $449 (May 29 - June 12)
[PS5] [1 Week] Temporary Price Cut: PS5 Slim Digital Edition $449 > $399 (May 29 - June 12)

Older Hardware, PS4, ROG Ally, Logitech G Cloud, Arcade cabinets, etc: ???

Recent History of April Hardware Revenue
201920202021202220232024
Mar$282,000,000$463,000,000$680,000,000$515,000,000$574,000,000$391,000,000
Apr$160,000,000$420,000,000$295,000,000$343,000,000$368,000,000$208,000,000
May$149,000,000$233,000,000$244,000,000$216,000,000$338,000,000

May 2023 Units
1. PS5: ???
2. NSW: ???
3. XBS: ???

April 2024 Rankings
Units: 1) PS5 2) Switch 3) XBS
Dollars: 1) PS5 2) XBS 3) Switch

April 2024 Unit Ranges
1. PS5: <250K
2. NSW: <150K
3. XBS: >100K

April 2023 NPD thread
May 2023 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 
Last edited:
[REV] 200M

1. [PS5] 243K
2. [XBS] 99K
3. [NSW] 124K
 
Last edited:
Okay so I only realized today the report was delayed to July 8, so predictions are open for another week.



Upcoming U.S. video game market results from Circana:
Coverage Month - Public Release Date

May (May 5-Jun 1) - Jul 8 (Delayed from Jun 28)
Jun (Jun 2-Jul 6) - Jul 24
Jul (Jul 7-Aug 3) - Aug 21
Aug (Aug 4-Aug 31) - Sep 18

Digital Data Sharing Participating Publishers:
For those interested, we're moving a significant number of products into video games from other industries that is requiring a full refresh back to 1995. Lot o' data. And with the US holiday next week we're therefore shifting the next public release to July 8th.
Headsets, for example. There's always been a headset segment in the video game tracking, but now we're also shifting in headsets that had previously been in our Technology tracking.
 
Today is the real last day for predictions. Also be ready on Monday night because I'll have the June prediction thread up then.
 
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Install Base Prediction Average
REV: 195.05M (Standard deviation = 8M)

PS5: 240K (Standard deviation = 13K)
NSW: 120K (Standard deviation = 7K)
XBS: 94K (Standard deviation = 4K)
 
NPD Prediction Results - May 2024

Revenue

Result: $202M
RankUserRevenue Difference
1Myriotes0
2Welfare2,000,000
3GamingCJ3,000,000
4Xevross4,000,000
5BTB1235,000,000
6Malden6,000,000
7Astrogamer7,000,000
8GaiusBaltar257,000,000
9Astral_lion027,000,000
10StrazakGoz8,000,000
11awng7829,000,000
12macfinatic10,000,000
13derby_44011,000,000
14jroc7412,000,000
15Maluigi12,000,000
16Fatih_65615,000,000
17The Hunter16,000,000
18Ystad17,000,000
19NobsPlaystation17,000,000


Congrats to @Myriotes for the perfect score! We were very close this month, 2/19 (11%) were within 1%, 4/19 (21%) were within 2%, 12/19 (63%) were within 5%, and 19/19 (100%) were within 9% of the actual result.

Points

Code:
May                              Total   
1.  Myriotes       117.00        Astrogamer      512.05
2.  Welfare        112.50        awng782         501.49
3.  GamingCJ       110.26        Malden          498.95
4.  Xevross        108.01        Xevross         488.72
5.  BTB123         105.76        The Hunter      488.69
6.  Malden         103.51        Welfare         485.67
7.  Astral_lion02  102.27        Ystad           472.22
8.  Astrogamer     102.27        GamingCJ        458.92
9.  GaiusBaltar25  102.27        derby_440       447.87
10. StrazakGoz      99.02        Astral_lion02   444.88
11. awng782         97.77        BTB123          390.87
12. macfinatic      97.52        Fatih_656       381.39
13. derby_440       97.28        GaiusBaltar25   377.87
14. jroc74          97.03        jroc74          377.61
15. Maluigi         97.03        Myriotes        335.84
16. Fatih_656       96.29        NobsPlaystation 334.87
17. The Hunter      96.04        Maluigi         281.56
18. NobsPlaystation 95.79        StrazakGoz      275.13
19. Ystad           95.79        Kenka           174.94
20.                              macfinatic       97.52
21.                              Tbone5189        97.16
22.                              Limabean01       92.98
23.                              Avitsky          87.12
24.                              Yomi             87.02
25.                              ESCK Swiss       73.38
26.                              Jin+Jang         72.35
27.                              Kmds             72.35

Congrats to @Myriotes ! Every predictor got the console order right, so everyone got the +50 points. This ranking is the same as the revenue ranking.
 
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