Lets predict lifetime sales of Xbox Series X|S

[Sky-X]

Microsoft released two new consoles, Xbox Series X and Xbox Series S. let us predict how much Xbox Series family will sell during its overall lifespan. choices:

* 50-59m: Xbox series will sell about the same as Xbox One, or slightly higher. anything less than that isn't realistic given that the system is already the fastest selling Xbox.

* 60-69m: Xbox Series sales are an improvement over Xbox One family, but being weak in some markets and tough competition from Sony will limit its overall potential.

* 70-79m: Combination of excellent hardware/price, Xbox Game Studios growth, and Game Pass growth will lead to strong sales globally, doing 10m+ units for as many fiscal years as possible.

* 80m+: Xbox Series is a worldwide hit and the brand is back to its former glory, its Xbox 360 all over again.

Share your prediction with us and lets see how things are gonna end up a few years down the line. you have a single choice and you can't change your vote.

 

[Concurseiro do Futuro]

70~79 million.

Xbox Series could sell 10~12 million consoles per year. If it lasts 7 years, like Xbox One did, it should sell like 70~84 million.

 

[slipperyfishes]

Improved over Xbox One but not in the 80m+ range. We need to think about mid gen refreshes that extend the console life through ten years which I think they will do. I think that as tech advances and better access through streaming becomes available we will see a significant number of people playing new titles through cloud streaming instead of new hardware (esp if they already own a Series console).

 

[Sky-X]

I voted for 70-79m, which puts it in the same sales range of the 3DS. I think its still difficult for Xbox to achieve more than that due to weaknesses in some markets. still, the combination of Game Pass value and the presence of game titles like Starfield, Doom, Fable, Fallout, The Elder Scrolls and others will lead to strong performance for a longer period of time compared to Xbox One.

 

[Stygr]

If Xbox One is at 50 million more or less with Game pass and the huge amount of exclusive titles coming I think at least 15-20 more million units are achievable.

 

[Flakster99]

Because of Game Pass and all their games in the pipeline and their aggressiveness, it is a matter of getting and working out their hardware pipeline, parceling woes. Once they do, watch out.

I'm going with 80m+.

 

[fiendcode]

Voted 70-79m. Their value proposition is off the charts (best hardware this time at $500, lowest entry price at $300, keeping $60 1st party games, Gamepass) and their 1st party is making a monumental comeback with good management and smart acquisitions. I don't see them leading any major markets again (unlike 360 in US/UK) but they've really been executing so well it's not hard to see them doing appreciably better than One.

 

[Benji-Sales]

Can't see less than 70m to be honest considering Xbox One got to 50m and that had a disastrous image for years

Game Pass, great hardware, low priced entry point, and a huge amount of exclusives on the way

It would be awesome to finally see Xbox get a 100m selling platform but that's probably too high.

 

[Rowsdower]

Microsoft has that hunger that hasn’t been seen since the X360 days. Gamepass shows they are thinking very long term. I think 80 million is very doable.

 

[slavesnyder]

the big spender policy with gamepass and acquisitions (and I guess the shopping spree is far from over) should lead to huge hardware sales of 90 million plus.

there's only one thing that can lower the numbers, and that's gamepass on pc, which might cannibalize consoles.

 

[biglo25]

Can't see less than 70m to be honest considering Xbox One got to 50m and that had a disastrous image for years

Game Pass, great hardware, low priced entry point, and a huge amount of exclusives on the way

It would be awesome to finally see Xbox get a 100m selling platform but that's probably too high.

xbox one had a lot going against it with the bad image and barely any exclusive and it's still sold over 50 million and now with the Series S|X and good exclusive coming and Game Pass so 80+ would be my guess since i want it to get to xbox 360 levels and that console had the RROD in the early hardware and still sold that many.

 

[Benji-Sales]

xbox one had a lot going against it with the bad image and barely any exclusive and it's still sold over 50 million and now with the Series S|X and good exclusive coming and Game Pass so 80+ would be my guess since i want it to get to xbox 360 levels and that console had the RROD in the early hardware and still sold that many.

Yep I definitely wouldn't be surprised to see it go over 80m

I gave "can't see anything less than 70m" as basically my bottom base line. Seems just incredibly unlikely going under that considering how much better positioned Series X|S are over One. Getting to 80m+ or higher doesn't seem far fetched at all

 

[storres]

The challenge for Xbox is regaining the market share in Europe and other places. If they do, I can see 360 numbers.

 

[biglo25]

Yep I definitely wouldn't be surprised to see it go over 80m

I gave "can't see anything less than 70m" as basically my bottom base line. Seems just incredibly unlikely going under that considering how much better positioned Series X|S are over One. Getting to 80m+ or higher doesn't seem far fetched at all

agreed now let's hope the supply issues are better in the coming years also @Benji-Sales have you noticed an increased marketing budget from Xbox because the Age of Empire marketing and new regional accounts makes me think that MS gave the xbox division more money since we got of a lot of exclusive games coming from XGSP and XGS and Third party deals for Game Pass.

 

[Benji-Sales]

The challenge for Xbox is regaining the market share in Europe and other places. If they do, I can see 360 numbers.

Yep Europe is absolutely the hardest part for Xbox this generation. It will definitely do better than One there but the big question is can it get to Xbox 360 levels there?

agreed now let's hope the supply issues are better in the coming years also @Benji-Sales have you noticed an increased marketing budget from Xbox because the Age of Empire marketing and new regional accounts makes me think that MS gave the xbox division more money since we got of a lot of exclusive games coming from XGSP and XGS and Third party deals for Game Pass.

I definitely don't have the specifics of Xbox Marketing spend but I do agree it seems to have ramped up a lot over the last year. Wouldn't be surprised if Microsoft leadership gave Xbox an increased marketing budget consider the new platform launch and big increase in 1st party output

 

[Welfare]

I'm bullish and going with +80M. Game Pass with a $299 console the entire generation should be evergreen and when games like Starfield and Elder Scrolls 6 are console exclusive, casuals will gravitate towards Xbox far better than Xbox One.

Momentum should also be far greater than XB1 which stalled after 2016 and never kept up with a continually growing PS4.

 

[MysticGon]

Hard to say since we haven't had numbers from Xbox since their 80 million for 360 and 1 million in 24 hours for One 8 years ago.

Going off third party/indie support it's still seems a good enough investment if included with other platforms but I think a strong PC market could actually start to eat into their share. Especially if the PC hardware itself is comparably priced like Steam Deck.

Why do I think that? Xbox and PC have audiences with similar tastes. If cross-play starts to become the norm the bigger library and free online could be tempting draws.

Xbox also still misses out on some Japanese games and the growth they are seeing in the country might not be enough to sway companies that don't get the Game Pass offer. Those developers have embraced PC even if they still sometimes treat it like a bargaining chip or a second class platform.

I could see a wildly successful Steam Deck costing Xbox millions of sales.

So I'll say low 50s maybe even lower.

 

[Welfare]

Hard to say since we haven't had numbers from Xbox since their 80 million for 360 and 1 million in 24 hours for One 8 years ago.

Going off third party/indie support it's still seems good enough investment if included with other platforms but I think a strong PC market could actually start to eat into their share. Especially if the PC hardware itself is comparably priced like Steam Deck.

Why do I think that? Xbox and PC have audiences with similar tastes. If cross-play starts to become the norm the bigger library and free online could be tempting draws.

Xbox also still misses out on some Japanese games and the growth they are seeing in the country might not be enough to sway companies that don't get the Game Pass offer. Those developers have embraced PC even if they still sometimes treat it like a bargaining chip or a second class platform.

I could see a wildly successful Steam Deck costing Xbox millions of sales.

So I'll say low 50s maybe even lower.

I'll just say that cross play and cross buy have been major things for years now and XBS is the fastest selling Xbox yet and demand still outstrips supply as confirmed by Microsoft.

The expansion to PC has shown to be growing the pie in a non cannibalistic way.

 

[Benji-Sales]

I've never been of the belief really that PC eats into console martket share

They are two different markets for the most part. Your average console gamer buys them for a reason instead of building a PC. Cheaper entry point, no need to worry about spec compatibility with games, etc

I don't think launching games on PC will have any detrimental effect on PlayStation or Xbox console sales

 

[supercommodore]

I voted 70-79, but I would guess low 70s.

Generally a great recovery from the One generation, but to hit the 80-100 million range I feel it would need to be on the back of a solid previous gen.

By releasing day and date on PC + streaming with XCloud, their true audience size will be well north of just the console units alone anyway.

 

[MysticGon]

I'll just say that cross play and cross buy have been major things for years now and XBS is the fastest selling Xbox yet and demand still outstrips supply as confirmed by Microsoft.

The expansion to PC has shown to be growing the pie in a non cannibalistic way.

The semiconductor shortage and the extended launch period FOMO and scalping that comes with it make me hesitant to declare the demand is anything out of the ordinary. It's a successful launch compared to any other Xbox and Microsoft would love for this thirst to be perpetual but I'm not convinced it can sustain these headlines past the demand of the die hards yet.

 

[nextgeneration]

I've never been of the belief really that PC eats into console martket share

They are two different markets for the most part. Your average console gamer buys them for a reason instead of building a PC. Cheaper entry point, no need to worry about spec compatibility with games, etc

I don't think launching games on PC will have any detrimental effect on PlayStation or Xbox console sales

Agreed. Most people who buy consoles buy consoles for a reason. And for the very, very small percentage of people who do forgo getting a console and end up buying/building a pc instead, even if a console manufacturer doesn't make as much money off these individuals (since these individuals won't be in the console ecosystem), the fact that these games are now on PC and the sales they will generate will far, far outweigh any financial shortcomings of a lost console sale.

Oh, and I picked 70-79 mil for Xbox in this poll. Microsoft should definitely be much more successful this generation versus last generation, but until they can get a solid footing and grow their mindshare/marketshare in Europe, I can't see them breaking the 80 mil barrier.

 

[Stygr]

The PC and console argument never made sense and never will.

There are far people willing to spend only $500 and get a console to play certain games, thinking that people will switch from consoles to PC especially now when GPU prices are really high is just nonsense. And yes even if MS wants to push Game Pass, they will have to ship consoles and have a big userbase of people willing to get Game Pass and spend on their ecosystem, because that's where the real money is, for both MS and Sony.

Expanding to PC for MS means reaching some regions where Xbox is either not available or unaccessible for several reasons and Sony is doing the same with their PC efforts even if they are not day and date. There's a lot of potential and money to be made in certain regions/countries where consoles are not popular and it's either PC or mobile if you want a slice of those markets.

MS biggest problem in EU is the lack of aggressive marketing in their big countries (France, Spain, Italy, Germany); they have the big mkt campaigns for UK and USA and partially for some LATAM countries but Europe never had big ads on TV or banners in the biggest cities, unlike Sony which is always putting effort and spending millions in mkt campaigns WW.

 

[Chris1964]

Xbox having big increase this generation is connected to having big increase in Europe. If Xbox doesn't improve its mindshare here the rest of the world can't give XBS more than 10-20m advantage over XB1.

 

[Benji-Sales]

Xbox having big increase this generation is connected to having big increase in Europe. If Xbox doesn't improve its mindshare here the rest of the world can't give XBS more than 10-20m advantage over XB1.

I don't see any reason though Xbox Series wouldn't sell better than One in Europe? It's better positioned in every way

Better hardware at launch, cheaper entry point, much bigger 1st party output, and Game Pass growing in value / offerings

Xbox Series not outperforming One worldwide by a wide margin seem almost impossible tbh

 

[Sky-X]

MS biggest problem in EU is the lack of aggressive marketing in their big countries (France, Spain, Italy, Germany); they have the big mkt campaigns for UK and USA and partially for some LATAM countries but Europe never had big ads on TV or banners in the biggest cities, unlike Sony which is always putting effort and spending millions in mkt campaigns WW.

To be honest, I think software is also an issue. Microsoft software is not that varied compared to the rest of console manufacturers, they are satisfying the most for American players I feel. many first person and WRPGs for example, but where are the adventure games? third person games? platformers/colorful games? and what about something new and inventive like Returnal? software is one of the reasons that limit the appeal of Xbox in many markets outside the US, imo.

 

[slavesnyder]

waiting for the 1% of China

 

[Benji-Sales]

To be honest, I think software is also an issue. Microsoft software is not that varied compared to the rest of console manufacturers, they are satisfying the most for American players I feel. many first person and WRPGs for example, but where are the adventure games? third person games? platformers/colorful games? and what about something new and inventive like Returnal? software is one of the reasons that limit the appeal of Xbox in many markets outside the US, imo.

RPGs are popular in Europe

Microsoft currently has 6 in development

Starfield
Avowed
Elder Scrolls VI
Fable
The Outer Worlds 2
InXile Steampunk RPG

 

[SoonyXboneUhh]

I'm a little more optimistic on growing the overall market in emerging markets like Latin America and Asia.

The US will also have over 50m more people at the end of this generation compared to end of X360 generation.

Add the multi SKU strategy with streaming sticks and Xbox Series might really be the first 100m seller for Microsoft.

 

[Sky-X]

RPGs are popular in Europe

Microsoft currently has 6 in development

Starfield
Avowed
Elder Scrolls VI
Fable
The Outer Worlds 2
InXile Steampunk RPG

And first person shooters are also popular there and everywhere else, but they are not the only thing people want to play, I think people want more varied stuff and they want it consistently, not 1 or 2 games per generation.

Being weak for Japanese games is also another issue for Xbox, they have better support now but sales remain incredibly low from what we've known. the biggest Japanese games like MHW which is a 20m seller, didn't reach 2m on Xbox One, and smaller stuff is like, only couple of thousands. Japanese games aren't the biggest sellers out there but they add variety and the audience is very faithful. they also help to increase popularity in certain markets like some Asian markets for example.

From hardware perspective and services Microsoft is the best option right now, from software point of view there is still work to be done even after acquiring Bethesda.

 

[Benji-Sales]

And first person shooters are also popular there and everywhere else, but they are not the only thing people want to play, I think people want more varied stuff and they want it consistently, not 1 or 2 games per generation.

Xbox will likely have more 1st party releases than any console holder over the next 5 years? Their firsty is enormous now. I don't think it's yet sunk in for people how high their output will be this generation

 

[kimbo99]

Sweet spot between the 360 and Xbox One, voted 70-79, but prolly just a bit over 80M. Now that Xbox is on more platforms, and more software is coming, I feel that it will easily surpass the Xbox one.

 

[Violette]

Microsoft's made great strides in making more appealing games for the European market, especially with their renewed PC focus. They have a flight sim, racing sims, RTS, and several WRPGs.

The big hurdle is winning back marketshare from Playstation when the PS brand has become the one-stop-shop for console gaming.

 

[MysticGon]

You have an all-digital Xbox at $299.99 and a top of the disc unit for $499.99 with $9.99/month for Gold.

PCs being so expensive and requiring effort to get running made it an easy choice.

But when you have Gabe Newell throwing out the word "millions" and seeing the pitch behind Deck Valve is positioning it in the space consoles occupy. Affordable dummyproof gaming. And seeing as market share is exactly 0% right now it's only logical if it succeeds it needs to get it's sales from somewhere. If it hits retail shelves any time during Xbox Series' lifetime it will compete for sales. That's unavoidable.

 

[Benji-Sales]

I mean, as of now we already know at least 18, 1st party projects coming from Xbox and this isn't including stuff from The Coalition, Double Fine, and many of the Bethesda Studios

Xbox output this generation will be massive to feed Game Pass

Halo Infinite
Forza Horizon 5
Redfall
Elder Scrolls VI
Starfield
Fable
Forza Motorsport
Hellblade II
Project Mara
The Outer Worlds 2
Avowed
Perfect Dark
State of Decay 3
Everwild
Contraband
Project Indus
Project Cobalt
Project Belfry

 

[Chris1964]

I don't see any reason though Xbox Series wouldn't sell better than One in Europe? It's better positioned in every way

Better hardware at launch, cheaper entry point, much bigger 1st party output, and Game Pass growing in value / offerings

Maybe this will change when Microsoft exclusives start to hit and XBS X supply improves but so far most European territories don't show big excitement for these offers.

 

[Sky-X]

Xbox will likely have more 1st party releases than any console holder over the next 5 years? Their firsty is enormous now. I don't think it's yet sunk in for people how high their output will be this generation

Maybe I'm overestimating software issue but I think variety is not there yet. its not about the number of games. Switch for example is much more popular than 3DS despite both having the same Nintendo games, but you can argue that third party offerings increased popularity and made Switch a lot more attractive than 3DS with games like Fortnite, Fifa, Rocket League, Stardew Valley, MK11, TW3 and many others.

When I look at Microsoft announced games, I feel something is missing, I asked many people about this, they said they feel the same and its a reason why they still want to get a PS5 or PC despite Xbox being basically the best value in gaming right now.

If I asked you, why you think 70m is base for what XS can do and not 100m, what will you say the reason is?

 

[Benji-Sales]

If I asked you, why you think 70m is base for what XS can do and not 100m, what will you say the reason is?

Main reason for 70m floor for me is it's still under the Xbox 360 which has been the peak for the brand. I won't predict surpassing the peak until it happens

Won't go for 100m because no Xbox has ever done it (would be cool if it happened here though)

Mainly I just don't see how Xbox Series doesn't significantly outperform Xbox One worldwide. It's literally positioned better than its predecessor in every metric

 

[Welfare]

You have an all-digital Xbox at $299.99 and a top of the disc unit for $499.99 with $9.99/month for Gold.

PCs being so expensive and requiring effort to get running made it an easy choice.

But when you have Gabe Newell throwing out the word "millions" and seeing the pitch behind Deck Valve is positioning it in the space consoles occupy. Affordable dummyproof gaming. And seeing as market share is exactly 0% right now it's only logical if it succeeds it needs to get it's sales from somewhere. If it hits retail shelves any time during Xbox Series' lifetime it will compete for sales. That's unavoidable.

Remember Steam machines?

And I'm still not convinced why Xbox will be negatively impacted by the Deck anymore so than PS5 or even the Switch. Hell, Switch launched in the middle of the 8th gen and XB1/PS4 weren't impacted by it.

We've also seen that not every new device needs to steal market share from competitors to be a success.

You can also just as easily argue that a big portion of potential Deck buyers are people that already game on PC and want the portability. The market for a console, PC and mobile device are very different

 

[Benji-Sales]

We've also seen that not every new device needs to steal market share from competitors to be a success.

I think this is really important

I'm expecting a LOT of cross ownership between PS5 and Xbox Series this generation. Xbox One first party output was so low last generation it was pretty easy to skip the console. With Xbox Series there's going to be so much 1st party content it will be much more attractive to pair even with another platforms

 

[MysticGon]

Remember Steam machines?

And I'm still not convinced why Xbox will be negatively impacted by the Deck anymore so than PS5 or even the Switch. Hell, Switch launched in the middle of the 8th gen and XB1/PS4 weren't impacted by it.

We've also seen that not every new device needs to steal market share from competitors to be a success.

You can also just as easily argue that a big portion of potential Deck buyers are people that already game on PC and want the portability. The market for a console, PC and mobile device are very different

Deck will gobble up some gaming laptop share for sure but desktop gamers I know have turned up their noses at it lol.

 

[gtj1982]

For those thinking Xbox will get close to 80 million units where are you all expecting them to sale these consoles. Yes there are shortages of XSX but resale prices don't point to overwhelming demand despite the anemic shipments. And there already appears to be sales discounts being applied to XSS to move inventory.

 

[Nokia]

Gamepass and the far better PR Microsoft has had with the Series consoles compared to the One should push it past that 50m mark. I think it hitting the 70m is reasonable.

Also why are people using the Steam Deck as a means of threat to console sales when it isn't even currently hitting store shelves as far as I know? You have to reserve it for $5 only on the Steam Store meaning only Steam fans and PC enthusiasts are the current market for Valve.

 

[Astral_lion02]

For those thinking Xbox will get close to 80 million units where are you all expecting them to sale these consoles. Yes there are shortages of XSX but resale prices don't point to overwhelming demand despite the anemic shipments. And there already appears to be sales discounts being applied to XSS to move inventory.

Yes, for what I see XSS did not sell well.

It will depend on how the public will react to New Microsoft games.

 

[Benji-Sales]

Xbox Series X |S will be well over 10 million by the end of the year

To sell on par with Xbox One you would basically have to assume the launch year is its peak year in sales before it was regularly stocked, had it's big 1st party games hit, and was at its most expensive

 

[supercommodore]

For those thinking Xbox will get close to 80 million units where are you all expecting them to sale these consoles. Yes there are shortages of XSX but resale prices don't point to overwhelming demand despite the anemic shipments. And there already appears to be sales discounts being applied to XSS to move inventory.

I imagine people expect it by Xbox releasing considerably more first party games than last gen.

For most of last gen Xbox had 5-7 studios with maybe 10ish teams.

They now have 23 studios with 30-35 teams (and counting).

 

[MysticGon]

Xbox Series X |S will be well over 10 million by the end of the year

To sell on par with Xbox One you would basically have to assume the launch year is its peak year in sales before it was regularly stocked, had it's big 1st party games hit, and was at its most expensive

Even with all of the acquisitions it's hard to imagine anything they have outdoing a Halo game that is firing on all cylinders, like what Infinite will likely be.

They do have a great deal more of them this time around. It will make 360's lineup look petite in comparison.

But I do think Xbox will have it's peak closer to launch with most if the current One owners wanting to upgrade.

 

[supercommodore]

Even with all of the acquisitions it's hard to imagine anything they have outdoing a Halo game that is firing on all cylinders, like what Infinite will likely be.

Starfield is going to be pretty big next year and is only on next-gen. People will have to upgrade to play it, unlike Halo.

If it hits the tail of the gen, Elder Scrolls 6 will also be a huge driver of sales. I think most people would consider ES6 a bigger event than a Halo release.

 

[Benji-Sales]

Starfield is going to be pretty big next year and is only on next-gen. People will have to upgrade to play it, unlike Halo.

If it hits the tail of the gen, Elder Scrolls 6 will also be a huge driver of sales. I think most people would consider ES6 a bigger event than a Halo release.

Yeah I'm really bullish on Xbox performance this gen. Their 1st party is too strong in the coming years

I don't expect Series X|S to be front loaded at all.

 

[biglo25]

Yeah I'm really bullish on Xbox performance this gen. Their 1st party is too strong in the coming years

I don't expect Series X|S to be front loaded at all.

i follow the thought of it will be like how the PS4 was slow first couple of years but picks up as the exclusive start coming in like we wont the Starfield till end of next year 2022 then more of XGS in 2023