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Legend of Zelda: Echoes of BOLD Wisdom, Will Open at 6mil Worldwide!

Echoes of wisdom opening Quarter will open around

  • 3mil or lower

    Votes: 24 24.0%

  • 3-4mil

    Votes: 41 41.0%

  • 4-5mil

    Votes: 21 21.0%

  • 5-6mil

    Votes: 3 3.0%

  • 6mil+

    Votes: 11 11.0%
  • Total voters
    100
Tialo said:
If the game overperforms in Japan and underperforms in western markets / US , then this could indeed be possible. But yeah, lets add some numbers to the NA sales, but this will not change the big sales picture here
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I think the most conservative approach is a 2x over Japan numbers for NA. Like TOTK last year. But maybe you want to be bold... XD.
Agree that it wouldn't change the big picture for this quarter anyways.
 
Tialo said:
If the game overperforms in Japan and underperforms in western markets / US , then this could indeed be possible. But yeah, lets add some numbers to the NA sales, but this will not change the big sales picture here
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It's Zelda we're talking about. Not some "random" game.

Please, check how Zelda games are selling in US compared to Japan historically.
 
Tialo said:
Feel free to add another 50k-100k for NA sales, but this will not change the 'big picture' very much - especially when we consider that numbers of Others or EU could also be close to the lower range that I posted. I think sell-through numbers will be somewhere between 1.4m and 1.7m, this range should be a pretty safe bet from my pov.

Yes you are right, maybe shipping numbers will also be a bit higher, but this will be adjusted then in the following quarters for sure (as we can see for TotK in the last quarters. Its initial shipment was very big, thats why they did not ship so much units in the following quartes afterwards). So in the 'longrun', the shipment numbers will follow the sell-through numbers. I would predict 4.5m-5.0m units for EoW LTD
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NA is Zelda's strongest market. You're probably looking at 700k+ there imo. I think extrapolating NA performance from Europe as opposed to Japan is a mistake. Zelda games do not sell on par in NA compared to Japan. I don't think when you are dealing with a lower floor, you can compare TotK's EU vs NA numbers either.
 
balgajo said:
I think the most conservative approach is a 2x over Japan numbers for NA. Like TOTK last year.
Click to expand...

Most conservative approach? Lets make it easy:

TotK sold 2.24m units in Japan on its opening weekend.
It sold 10m units worldwide on its opening weekend (see Nintendo statement at that time)

So worldwide, it sold the 4,4 multiplied quantity of japanese numbers. If we do this same calculation now for EoW:

350k X 4,4 = 1.54m worldwide

OR (if Japanese numbers are a bit higher including digital)

375k X 4,4 = 1.65m worldwide

So this leads also to the number that I mentioned before. And if the game has a slightly underperformance in western markets, then the numbers will be even lower

@SkyerIst You do NOT consider in your assumptions, that EoW has a great overperformance in Japan, so you can not simply use the multiplicators of earlier Zelda games now. Example: TotK started 5x times better in Japan than in UK last year. EoW now started 6x times better in Japan than in UK, so the multiplicator has changed between Japan and European markets
 
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Tialo said:
Most conservative approach? Lets make it easy:

TotK sold 2.24m units in Japan on its opening weekend.
It sold 10m units worldwide on its opening weekend (see Nintendo statement at that time)

So worldwide, it sold the 4,4 multiplied quantity of japanese numbers. If we do this same calculation now for EoW:

350k X 4,4 = 1.54m worldwide

OR (if Japanese numbers are a bit higher including digital)

375k X 4,4 = 1.65m worldwide

So this leads also to the number that I mentioned before. And if the game has a slightly underperformance in western markets, then the numbers will be even lower

@SkyerIst You do NOT consider in your assumptions, that EoW has a great overperformance in Japan, so you can not simply use the multiplicators of earlier Zelda games now. Example: TotK started 5x times better in Japan than in UK last year. EoW now started 6x times better in Japan than in UK, so the multiplicator has changed between Japan and European markets
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If we are talking about sell-through numbers I agree with you. But considering this thread is about Q1 performance it will ended up favoring the other markets that aren't as frontloaded as Japan. I think the proportions for sell-in will endup being near to those here.
https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2023/231108e.pdf
But as I said I agree it won't change the big picture. And I also have this feeling that Japan proportion will be greater than TOTK as I see Switch healthier there than other areas in this exact moment.
 
What was LA's performance in the second week？

If it achieves 3.13M within two weeks. Why did this game calculate only 1.54M in the first week. Especially when calculating, people use Japanese data as a benchmark.
 
Necu said:
What was LA's performance in the second week？

If it achieves 3.13M within two weeks. Why did this game calculate only 1.54M in the first week. Especially when calculating, people use Japanese data as a benchmark.
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Because the cut date for Q3 report is Sep 30 I believe.
 
@balgajo Yes I agree to your shipping assumptions.

We should also consider that the second-week-drop of EoW will most propably be higher than it was for LA remake, because EoW launched on a thursday now and had one additional sales day in its first week. This should lead to a higher drop in the second week as we have seen it now for some of the newer releases. For shipping numbers, I would predict the following:

First quarter: 2.3m-2.4m
Second quarter: 1.1m

LTD in the end: 4.6-4.7m
 
Charamiwa said:
It's late in the gen, and the Switch already has a high performing 2D Zelda game. Maybe if WoM was out of this world it might have overperformed, but otherwise I don't think it is unexpected.

It's a bit counter intuitive to have a remake sell more than a brand new game but it did come out at the height of the gen and had great legs for the genre.
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It’s similar to Link To The Past outselling Minish Cap on the GBA. First come, first serve.
 
balgajo said:
Yeah don't think it will reach 3-4M I voted for this quarter. I think in the end Nintendo was able to sell Link's Awakening as completely new product instead of being seen as a remake. I was expecting this being the first original 2D Zelda an advantage for EOW.
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But why? It sells more than Link's awakening at retail in Japan and is mostly tied with retail of Link's Awakening in Europe. Digital included should make it a bit stronger launch than Link's Awakening. Only difference is that legs will be weaker this time around.
 
theprodigy said:
If we're talking about sellthrough, Link's Awakening sold 2 million in the first 5 weeks (note that this is North America/Europe/Japan only, as opposed to fully WW) as a comparison.
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yeah, and EoW so far has sold more than LA: in Japan even at retail; in EU (I think UK, France and Spain?) slightly lower AT REATAIL ONLY, with 5 years of digital adoption growth, after COVID digital spending behaviour and no limited edition

so it's safe to assume that in those countries it started stronger (distribution + digital)
 
Danny said:
But why? It sells more than Link's awakening at retail in Japan and is mostly tied with retail of Link's Awakening in Europe. Digital included should make it a bit stronger launch than Link's Awakening. Only difference is that legs will be weaker this time around.
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The thing is that the numbers we got today in Japan is almost the entire Q3(missing Sep 30). Link's Awakening had bit more time for its first quarter sales.
 
I imagine most of this game's lifetime sales will come from what it sells this holiday before we get into 2025. Since there's not much in terms of big new releases coming in November and December for the US market then hopefully it has some legs there. October is really the only stacked month left this year.

But yeah feels like the opening quarter in September being between 3 and 4 million is probably in the right spot unless Nintendo really over shipped this game.
 
Gartooth said:
I imagine most of this game's lifetime sales will come from what it sells this holiday before we get into 2025. Since there's not much in terms of big new releases coming in November and December for the US market then hopefully it has some legs there. October is really the only stacked month left this year.
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Yes I agree. I think 70% of its lifetime sales (or even more) will be executed by end of 2024. I think that software sales of Switch 1 titles will in general decrease very cleary after Switch 2 will have been released - although it will have BC.
 
Tbone5189 said:
Let's give a special thanks to those that believe in my 6mil, i failed you all and will be better with the BOLDness going forward. I blame FOOTBALL for European sales 😭
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Time to rename the thread as 'Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Bold Wisdom Will Hit 6mil Worldwide in 2024'? Should be a safe one by the end of the year, right? Right?!
 
Tbone5189 said:
Let's give a special thanks to those that believe in my 6mil, i failed you all and will be better with the BOLDness going forward. I blame soccer for European sales 😭
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Don't be so hard on yourself, who knows you may be right in this game hitting 6 million sales only it will be the lifetime numbers instead of the opening.
 
Danny said:
Don't be so hard on yourself, who knows you may be right in this game hitting 6 million sales only it will be the lifetime numbers instead of the opening.
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images


you know which one is me, which one is you, and which one is @Lelouch0612
 
Danny said:
Don't be so hard on yourself, who knows you may be right in this game hitting 6 million sales only it will be the lifetime numbers instead of the opening.
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It hitting 6 million eventually won't make this prediction any less wrong.
 
Tbone5189 said:
Let's give a special thanks to those that believe in my 6mil, i failed you all and will be better with the BOLDness going forward. I blame soccer for European sales 😭
Click to expand...
We just need your next bold prediction, what about DQIII?
 
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