Headlines

Legend of Zelda: Echoes of BOLD Wisdom, Will Open at 6mil Worldwide!

Echoes of wisdom opening Quarter will open around

  • 3mil or lower

    Votes: 24 24.0%

  • 3-4mil

    Votes: 41 41.0%

  • 4-5mil

    Votes: 21 21.0%

  • 5-6mil

    Votes: 3 3.0%

  • 6mil+

    Votes: 11 11.0%
  • Total voters
    100
Tbone5189

Tbone5189

Member
Analyst
Everyone's reaction going into this thread right now! "Not another one of tour Cringey Bold predictions Tbone!"

80211fcebc2eca5e35141d1e407d2354.jpg


Main topic: Bold Prediction of Echoes of Wisdom Doing 6mil, keep In mind that Opening is essentially First Week since quarter results will only have the game sales between launch and Sept 30th (so 5 days) and I'm talking strictly ship+digital!

I know alot of people do believe this game will be hit with the 2nd iteration on same system syndrome but I do think EoW will open up pretty high and end the year on a huge note. I'm gonna say that 4mil opening most people are expecting is safe but this is not what safe is, its BOLD!

To give a few examples of some games opening launches take a look below

*LoZ: LA did 3.13mil with it being out of roughly 2 weeks
*LoZ: SSHD did 3.60mil but that was 2.5 months so there is that
*SM3DW+BF did 5.59mil opening quarter with roughly 2 months of sales

Why did I show SM3DW as a comparison? Who the the hell knows but only thing I know is 6mil is too high but Imma bet on that. Need a win after a few fails recently Haha somewhat do y'all think? Either post and/or vote and let me know what y'all thinking!

please let this game be a 93+ on metacritic lol

echoes-of-wisdom.jpg
 
I voted 6+. If it doesn't open with that much then the *world* is wrong, not me.
 
Kirby said:
I didn't read the OP properly, I thought LOZ:LA did like 2M at launch, not over 3M... Time to change my prediction.
Click to expand...

Yeah that’s why I said that’s very Bold of you lol. It’s still early for the votes but I can’t believe some people chose under 3mil!!!! If you guys are right then i believe that’s in flip territory
 
6M is way too high... I'm sorry 😔

Voted for 3M or lower.

This situation reminds me of DS era games:

Phantom Hourglass – 4,76M
Spirit Tracks – 2,96M

And 3DS era games:

Ocarina of Time 3D – 6,44M
Majora's Mask 3D – 3,46M

Of course, Switch is stronger than those consoles, but still I expect a drop in launch sales and overall sales compared to Link's Awakening.

6M launch is a Smash territory, and hype levels are not the same at all.
 
3.0-3.5M is the most likely scenario, maybe 4M if reviews are exceptionally strong (90MC+) and there is a bigger-than-expected pre-order surge right before launch.

6M is impossible.
 
SkyerIst said:
6M is way too high... I'm sorry 😔

Voted for 3M or lower.

This situation reminds me of DS era games:

Phantom Hourglass – 4,76M
Spirit Tracks – 2,96M

And 3DS era games:

Ocarina of Time 3D – 6,44M
Majora's Mask 3D – 3,46M

Of course, Switch is stronger than those consoles, but still I expect a drop in launch sales and overall sales compared to Link's Awakening.

6M launch is a Smash territory, and hype levels are not the same at all.
Click to expand...

These are good points but one huge difference in this is Remake->New game compare to the list you did. That said I really am surprised on the votes going for 3mil or under!

awng782 said:
3.0-3.5M is the most likely scenario, maybe 4M if reviews are exceptionally strong (90MC+) and there is a bigger-than-expected pre-order surge right before launch.

6M is impossible.
Click to expand...

I don’t think review being 90+ will make a change of sales during the opening week (which stores will already have their retail stock).

After reading a few post i thought the general thought would be roughly 4mil so looking like my 6mil really is too high. But again we shall see. How I look at it imo is 3mil is the floor and 4mil is safe. 6mil is an almost impossible goal which could happen. Just extremely not likely
 
What works in favour or against Echoes of Wisdom (compared to LOZ:LA remake)?

+ new game vs remake
+ larger userbase
+ zelda mc
- link is not the mc
- it looks like LOZ:LA remake

I think EOW is going to be more front-loaded. My prediction tend to be wrong tho.
 
Sorbete said:
I voted 6M+ I believe in this game since it was revealed
Click to expand...
YOUR a crazy guy than too, glad I'm not the only mental person here :P

Kirby said:
What works in favour or against Echoes of Wisdom (compared to LOZ:LA remake)?

+ new game vs remake
+ larger userbase
+ zelda mc
- link is not the mc
- it looks like LOZ:LA remake

I think EOW is going to be more front-loaded. My prediction tend to be wrong tho.
Click to expand...
+ zelda mc
- link is not the mc

Doesnt this conflict with the other? Unless you think both should of been MC lol. It does look like LA remake, I think it's made by the same team too.
 
Around 3 million, with something like an 81 Metacritic score.

I just think that Link's Awakening, being a beloved Gameboy classic and being the first Zelda in that style, got a different kind of hype than this game.
 
I'll go 5 million+! It is a new game led by Zelda. A game that people have been asking for a while.
 
Games who had monster openings on Switch had a way bigger marketin rollouts than this, they were treated at tentpole releases. And even Link's Awakening had the Switch Lite along with it. Marketing doesn't feel on par with the biggest Switch games. And it's very late in the gen.

It'll probably have good reviews and WoM, so it should do very well. Just not sure about such an explosive start.
 
I don't see how EoW hasn't received big marketing. Sure, maybe not to the level of TotK (obviously), but it has received three 5 minute trailers, commercials and ads online.
 
storres said:
I don't see how EoW hasn't received big marketing. Sure, maybe not to the level of TotK (obviously), but it has received three 5 minute trailers, commercials and ads online.
Click to expand...
Sure but to open at 6M first week end, it needs to be an event. We already know it won't do anything crazy in Japan, so that's even harder.
 
Charamiwa said:
Sure but to open at 6M first week end, it needs to be an event. We already know it won't do anything crazy in Japan, so that's even harder.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I agree on that part. But 4 to 5 opening week is on the table, imo
 
Charamiwa said:
Games who had monster openings on Switch had a way bigger marketin rollouts than this, they were treated at tentpole releases. And even Link's Awakening had the Switch Lite along with it. Marketing doesn't feel on par with the biggest Switch games. And it's very late in the gen.

It'll probably have good reviews and WoM, so it should do very well. Just not sure about such an explosive start.
Click to expand...

Did Bowser Fury have bigger ,marketing rollout than this, I dunno. SM3DW did have 2 months though to reach 5.59mil but Intel like EoW will be bigger, just nowhere near as leggy

Edit: actually how come we dont have a thread with quarter launches for software. I feel like having a thread like that could prove more useful to get a better idea overall on software performances
 
I'm predicting the 3-4 mil range, purely based on vibes. The Switch is losing steam fast, and a good chunk of the software sales of the system are software being picked up along with new system purchases. Existing users are starting to move on from the system, too.

We'll see! I think if the game has some amazing word of mouth, people will go out of their way to pick it up. If it's like one of those Kirby games that are "eh, it's fine", it will be in that smaller range.
 
Do we have any good early indicators on pre-orders and tracking? Right now I'm going with 3 to 4 million since it comes out the last week of a quarter and will get a big shipment. But I just don't know right now, the vibes are just off with the Switch getting not as much online engagement right now as everyone waits for Switch 2.

I know this game would have never gotten the buzz and marketing of a big installment like TotK but it's still odd how quiet things seem when we are a few days away from the launch of a new mainline Zelda game. Even this being the first new 2D Zelda in 11 years should make it a bigger deal. Plus we haven't had a Nintendo game launch at over 2 million in a single quarter since Mario Wonder and SMRPG almost a full year ago now.

I hope I'm wrong with low balling the game. Just feels like compared to 3 months ago when we had that big Direct, things have cooled considerably with regards to the Switch's mindshare online.
 
Gartooth said:
Do we have any good early indicators on pre-orders and tracking? Right now I'm going with 3 to 4 million since it comes out the last week of a quarter and will get a big shipment. But I just don't know right now, the vibes are just off with the Switch getting not as much online engagement right now as everyone waits for Switch 2.

I know this game would have never gotten the buzz and marketing of a big installment like TotK but it's still odd how quiet things seem when we are a few days away from the launch of a new mainline Zelda game. Even this being the first new 2D Zelda in 11 years should make it a bigger deal. Plus we haven't had a Nintendo game launch at over 2 million in a single quarter since Mario Wonder and SMRPG almost a full year ago now.

I hope I'm wrong with low balling the game. Just feels like compared to 3 months ago when we had that big Direct, things have cooled considerably with regards to the Switch's mindshare online.
Click to expand...
I don't know, preorders (Both digital and physical) seems to be pretty big for Echoes of wisdom. The fact that Switch have sold less software this year could be more about Nintendo not launching any big game this year, the biggest game they released this year is a remaster of Luigi's Mansion 2.
 
Aostia82 said:
I agree but @Tbone5189 Tboned aiming at double the sales of Links Awakening lol
Click to expand...
No well, that bold prediction was way too bold lmao, a "spin off" 2D Zelda game selling 60% in the same timeframe of what one of the most hyped-up games in Nintendo history would be like the greatest shock ever.

But this is @Tbone5189 and we love it, so faith is the last thing you lose
 
As I posted in the other thread: I think opening weekend will have close to 1.5m units sell-through:

Japan: 350k-400k
EU: 350k-400k
NA: 450k-500k
Others: 200k

My guess is that the game is performing a bit underwhelming outside of Japan. Shipments should be around 2m units, maybe a bit higher because of overshipping
 
Tialo said:
As I posted in the other thread: I think opening weekend will have close to 1.5m units sell-through:

Japan: 350k-400k
EU: 350k-400k
NA: 450k-500k
Others: 200k

My guess is that the game is performing a bit underwhelming outside of Japan. Shipments should be around 2m units, maybe a bit higher because of overshipping
Click to expand...
I can't see NA being that low for a Zelda game. For event games like TotK I can see the ratios being a lot closer between regions but otherwise NA is still notably stronger for Zelda than other regions. Only 400k for the US and about 50k for Canada ignoring everything else seems like an under estimation imo. And the shipments will need to cover more than launch week since this is an end of quarter release so if the sell through is 1.5m then I expect shipments closer to 2.5-3 million.
 
It's late in the gen, and the Switch already has a high performing 2D Zelda game. Maybe if WoM was out of this world it might have overperformed, but otherwise I don't think it is unexpected.

It's a bit counter intuitive to have a remake sell more than a brand new game but it did come out at the height of the gen and had great legs for the genre.
 
SoonyXboneUhh said:
6 Million dream is already dead with the (limited) sales figures we got so far.
Above or below 3 million is the question now.
Click to expand...


considering that LA on Switch debuted slightly higher than 3mil and that EoW with digital factored in is slightly higher, I'd say 3mil is a lock
 
Yeah don't think it will reach 3-4M I voted for this quarter. I think in the end Nintendo was able to sell Link's Awakening as completely new product instead of being seen as a remake. I was expecting this being the first original 2D Zelda an advantage for EOW.
 
Gotdatmoney said:
I can't see NA being that low for a Zelda game. For event games like TotK I can see the ratios being a lot closer between regions but otherwise NA is still notably stronger for Zelda than other regions. Only 400k for the US and about 50k for Canada ignoring everything else seems like an under estimation imo. And the shipments will need to cover more than launch week since this is an end of quarter release so if the sell through is 1.5m then I expect shipments closer to 2.5-3 million.
Click to expand...

Feel free to add another 50k-100k for NA sales, but this will not change the 'big picture' very much - especially when we consider that numbers of Others or EU could also be close to the lower range that I posted. I think sell-through numbers will be somewhere between 1.4m and 1.7m, this range should be a pretty safe bet from my pov.

Yes you are right, maybe shipping numbers will also be a bit higher, but this will be adjusted then in the following quarters for sure (as we can see for TotK in the last quarters. Its initial shipment was very big, thats why they did not ship so much units in the following quartes afterwards). So in the 'longrun', the shipment numbers will follow the sell-through numbers. I would predict 4.5m-5.0m units for EoW LTD
 
Interesting tidbit regarding Link's Awakening vs Echoes of Wisdom launch sales in Europe specifically:
awng782 said:
One thing to note is that Link's Awakening 2019 had a European-exclusive retail Collector's Edition at launch, which will bias its launch sales more toward retail (probably with a decent number of double dippers as we see with many games that launch with a retail collector's edition).
D8zK4l7WwAALGOk.jpg:large

Echoes of Wisdom has no such special/collector's edition so direct comparisons of retail sales will be challenging.
Click to expand...
 
It took LA 9 days to surpass 3m, i don't see how WoW doesn't reach AT LEAST 3.5m with the data we have
 
SkyerIst said:
Only 100K difference between NA (biggest Zelda market by far) and Japan? Absolutely impossible.
Click to expand...

If the game overperforms in Japan and underperforms in western markets / US , then this could indeed be possible. But yeah, lets add some numbers to the NA sales, but this will not change the big sales picture here
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom