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Kepler: The PlayStation 6 has 2 SoCs in Development
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Yep, which would be even worse for obvious reasons. Like I've said - they locked into this paradigm of "believing in generations" despite diminishing returns being apparent for 10+ years, and they have a competitor (Nvidia) who will not just trivialise the offer of a PS5Pro++ badged as a new generation in 2027, they'll almost certainly be designing whatever goes into Switch 3 in whatever form that takes.
So they either roll the dice on a $400-$500 console to keep reaching the mass market despite the performance uplift being relatively poor (probably a decent move, in PS' position they can probably force another generation with rasterisation), PS3 themselves again with a console priced out of the mass market, or try to extend the current generation as much as possible until they can offer significant improvements in the $400-$500 range (probably ideal for them if they can sell a decent amount of Pro models for a few years at what are sure to be gigantic margins).
What would justify 2 separate SoCs for a 150 difference though? That's the price of a disc drive these days!
different margins for SOny in selling both SKU?
sacrifice margins to get market share..?
I honestly don't know, but 2 separated SKU with that much of a gap (300 vs 700) is basically
- creating two separated development pipeline as it was for Nintendo with the Wii U and the 3DS or whatever, or even Sony with PS Vita and PS3/4 (but with a significant tech-gap imho)
- creating basically 2 generation-split hardwares
PS5 Pro is €800, I'd be impressed if the high end PS6 was under €700. Maybe you meant to input USD instead of Euro?
no, that's my European heart that was trying to cope, avoiding the hurt caused by the Pro price over here ;(
I guess it's PS6 and a PS portable. With the option of making a PS6 pro later on
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A new PlayStation-handheld would be funny, if only to expose some of the big Japanese publishers. Would they really put their big games on that PS handheld when they refused to do so for Switch and possibly Switch 2? Not sure if it'd be more funny or more sad, though.
But most people seem to assume this would be a Series X/Series S-situation, so no handheld. Doind a handheld now would be a crass business decision, after spending the past 10 years of driving all their Japan business (and thus handheld-leaning business) into the ground.
But most people seem to assume this would be a Series X/Series S-situation, so no handheld. Doind a handheld now would be a crass business decision, after spending the past 10 years of driving all their Japan business (and thus handheld-leaning business) into the ground.
Cribbing the strategy everyone criticized Xbox for would be hilarious, but it does seem more likely than a mythical PS5.5+ level handheld coming out of AMD in 2027/2028.
I think I agree with @ILikeFeet that the most realistic option for a 2nd SoC is a new companion device (Portal 2) built for native emulation in addition to streaming and sourcing that outside AMD (probably Qualcomm again). Such a device could be crossgen really and come before full PS6 launch to try and provide some direct alternative earlier for Switch 2.
For a true PS6 Portable to be realized would likely mean handicapping PS6 at large, the gulf is just too large otherwise. Although with Xbox maybe having a questionable future in hardware, perhaps the calculus makes some sense for Sony dropping out of the tech arms race?
I'm not sure if that's wise either as meeting a more competitive Switch on the lower performance end sort of gives up PlayStation's major advantage in maintaining support not shared with Nintendo. Actually Xbox crashing also greatly erodes this advantage, which is why it to me always seemed so premature for Sony diehards to be celebrating Xbox's potential exit. Careful what you wish for.
I think I agree with @ILikeFeet that the most realistic option for a 2nd SoC is a new companion device (Portal 2) built for native emulation in addition to streaming and sourcing that outside AMD (probably Qualcomm again). Such a device could be crossgen really and come before full PS6 launch to try and provide some direct alternative earlier for Switch 2.
For a true PS6 Portable to be realized would likely mean handicapping PS6 at large, the gulf is just too large otherwise. Although with Xbox maybe having a questionable future in hardware, perhaps the calculus makes some sense for Sony dropping out of the tech arms race?
I'm not sure if that's wise either as meeting a more competitive Switch on the lower performance end sort of gives up PlayStation's major advantage in maintaining support not shared with Nintendo. Actually Xbox crashing also greatly erodes this advantage, which is why it to me always seemed so premature for Sony diehards to be celebrating Xbox's potential exit. Careful what you wish for.
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A Sony version of “Series S” could be possible, so long as it’s designed to easily hit the same visuals as PS6 scaled down to 1080p, which is still the max resolution in a large number of televisions in homes around the world, and to make it silly easy to do the downward conversion to that S platform (this seems to be where the Series S stumbled).
You force publishers to make a handheld/hybrid SKU for their games, and all that means is they’ve lowered the technical floor. The consequences of that are immense to PlayStation.
PS customers would scream how such a device is “holding games back” because they are conditioned to demand the best and greatest performance possible for consoles, not to accept concessions to make games work across multiple hardware capabilities. We see people complain that cross-gen has lasted too long this cycle and “held games back” from their real potential, and even the most unreasonable complaining about Series S doing the same thing, imagine if that extended to the entire PS6 hardware cycle. You don’t do well subverting consumer expectations without giving them something in return to compensate (or finding an equal or greater number of new customers to replace the ones who lost interest).
And 3rd parties would then have to develop software for a device that is close enough to Nintendo hardware (which will benefit from first-mover advantage and momentum from Switch) that they’d be idiots to decide not to release on Nintendo hardware for what would be blatantly arbitrary reasons that devs couldn’t possibly spin their way out of like they can now, and then you’re just increasing the value of your competitor’s offering at the expense of your own.
The risks do not outweigh the rewards.
I think most people are arguing whether they should.
You force publishers to make a handheld/hybrid SKU for their games, and all that means is they’ve lowered the technical floor. The consequences of that are immense to PlayStation.
PS customers would scream how such a device is “holding games back” because they are conditioned to demand the best and greatest performance possible for consoles, not to accept concessions to make games work across multiple hardware capabilities. We see people complain that cross-gen has lasted too long this cycle and “held games back” from their real potential, and even the most unreasonable complaining about Series S doing the same thing, imagine if that extended to the entire PS6 hardware cycle. You don’t do well subverting consumer expectations without giving them something in return to compensate (or finding an equal or greater number of new customers to replace the ones who lost interest).
And 3rd parties would then have to develop software for a device that is close enough to Nintendo hardware (which will benefit from first-mover advantage and momentum from Switch) that they’d be idiots to decide not to release on Nintendo hardware for what would be blatantly arbitrary reasons that devs couldn’t possibly spin their way out of like they can now, and then you’re just increasing the value of your competitor’s offering at the expense of your own.
The risks do not outweigh the rewards.
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This is it - they're currently in a position where they can dictate terms for next-gen in the set top box market and most 3rd parties would follow along due to their usual inertia. Why would you use that situation to realign your specs downward, and thus neuter the 2 main differentiators you have vs Nintendo (performance and captive 3rd party support), as well as making it even easier for the PC market to be price competitive? The only reason would be the belief that you can just weather those consequences because the hardware margins will be high (i.e. you can rinse enthusiasts by having them pay substantially more for the "real" model while hiding behind the cheaper SKUs MSRP).
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A handheld capable of PS5 performance in the upcoming years is unfeasible. This is more likely a PS6 S and PS6 Premium at launch, with one focused on 8K and the other on 4K.
PS6 S with same GPU design as PS5 but using newer IP
PS6 Premium with same GPU design as PS5 Pro but using newer IP.
PS6 S with same GPU design as PS5 but using newer IP
PS6 Premium with same GPU design as PS5 Pro but using newer IP.
To me, it's quite simple. They can't make a PS6 at a mass market price and a PS6 that is a leap over the Pro in a single model. So they will make 2 of them.
Even if they wanted to pivot to make portable/hybrid, which is a bad idea for reasons already covered, the timing for it would be midgen with devkits available by the time crossgen is almost over (assuming they can get a modern PS5 portable then like they could get a modern PS4 now).
Even if they wanted to pivot to make portable/hybrid, which is a bad idea for reasons already covered, the timing for it would be midgen with devkits available by the time crossgen is almost over (assuming they can get a modern PS5 portable then like they could get a modern PS4 now).
Playstation 6, like the next box, will be a hybrid in this sense - handheld and console with games that scale from handheld to console.
Nintendo may have patents on the proprietary mechanisms needed for a Switch clone. This is why we haven't seen anyone copy it yet. We have seen handhelds only.
I think Sony and Microsoft are keen on being able to sell more hardware to folks who want a console and a handheld to play the same games.
Having seen the writing on the wall, Sony and Microsoft have an incentive to slow the pace of high-end console fidelity. With Nintendo already choosing it's path, Sony and Microsoft will align themselves with the Nintendo path - thereby deliberately slowing the pace of high-fidelity gaming to guarantee lower costs without a major competitor trying to one-up them.
If Nintendo, Sony, Microsoft all indirectly agree to maintain this fidelity truce, then you will get a paradigm shift in video gaming development. A reset generation, a do-over. The HD twins can spend resources aligning their tools for this level of fidelity and focus more on the content.
Gen 10 will be Switch 2, PS6, and Next Box all at similar fidelity (with Nintendo setting the lower end as usual) - unless I am completely wrong - which is entirely possible.
Nintendo may have patents on the proprietary mechanisms needed for a Switch clone. This is why we haven't seen anyone copy it yet. We have seen handhelds only.
I think Sony and Microsoft are keen on being able to sell more hardware to folks who want a console and a handheld to play the same games.
Having seen the writing on the wall, Sony and Microsoft have an incentive to slow the pace of high-end console fidelity. With Nintendo already choosing it's path, Sony and Microsoft will align themselves with the Nintendo path - thereby deliberately slowing the pace of high-fidelity gaming to guarantee lower costs without a major competitor trying to one-up them.
If Nintendo, Sony, Microsoft all indirectly agree to maintain this fidelity truce, then you will get a paradigm shift in video gaming development. A reset generation, a do-over. The HD twins can spend resources aligning their tools for this level of fidelity and focus more on the content.
Gen 10 will be Switch 2, PS6, and Next Box all at similar fidelity (with Nintendo setting the lower end as usual) - unless I am completely wrong - which is entirely possible.
I dunno how many people are chomping at the bit to buy both, though. A very different USP from the Switch and its all-in-one convenience.
Sure, the Switch will give you that all-in-one, but what it won't get you is your game on-the-go and in high fidelity. The Playstation 6, if it is like I predict, would do both. Which would be the best of both worlds, but you would need two devices to accomplish it.
there's no patents. the reason you haven't seen anyone copy it is because Windows/Linux doesn't have functions to do seamless switching like the Switch does. development of such a function would be pretty intensive, I bet.
Right, and I don't know how many people exist to buy that offering. That's going to be insanely expensive.
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Nintendo may have a patent on how supremely easy and quick it is to go from portable to television play, maybe even a detachable control method, but they do not and cannot have the patent on connecting a portable/handheld device to a television; so with that in mind, hybrids will exist beyond Nintendo and to a certain degree already do, perhaps simply not as seamlessly. And even if such a patent for their method exists, Nintendo could pull a power move and give others a license to use their patented method(s), earning more money on every hardware unit sold by their competition. And if there's value in that, they might even pay it.
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How are you going to do that when Switch 2 won't even be matching Series S? PS6 is PS5 Pro level of performance at minimum.
There's no technology that can get you a PS5 into a portable this decade. Microsoft maybe can do a Series S portable in some years.
The only way such handheld can exist is if players are ready to pay $999+ and deal with all their shortcomings.
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The last known number is ~30 million for Xbox and ~60 million for Playstation 5.
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They're using predicted final numbers for both consoles.
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By 2028 there will be $500 handhelds with fidelity/performance of PS5 at lower resolution upscaled with AI.
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PC Handhelds with approximate performance, sure. At a much higher price and not a PS5 though.
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I'm honestly questioning the $500 aspect. with the way wafer prices have gone up and the higher difficulty of bleeding performance out of these magical rocks, I hope we can hit PS5 at 360p for $500
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$500 is being extremely optimistic because the trend is future SoCs to embrace advanced packaging, which is another cost adder. And, as you said, 3nm and 2nm not only are extremely expensive but also see design cost skyrocket.
The trend is that budget client consumers (<$599) will be serviced with older IP on older manufacturing processes and trailing edge solutions. While the high-end clients gets the latest and best because they can afford to.
You're already seeing this with AMD, Intel and Apple. Very likely others fabless customers will follow suit soon. GPU space is also holding out on nodes that are 1-2 steps behind and increasing their cadence from 2 to 3 years. It's a whole new world basically.
That's why I'm so skeptical of the hopium PS and XB fans have while thinking they can have a PS5/XSeries X on a portable for the next generation. The driver of mobile fast development, node scaling, is dead.
As I have claimed previously, I think, given the few instance of PS5 exclusives, that Sony would work to downport those games to work on a PS6 handheld. A PS6 handheld could have modern GPU features and an SSD, so the major features of the PS5 could be retained.
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To have the entire PS5 library playable on this supposed PS6 handheld, you would need to ask every developer to spend extra resources on porting these games to this new and weaker device. That's a non-starter.
If you want a PS6 handheld, then it can happen. But it will have shortcomings like no compatibility with anything from PS5 library. That's already a deal-breaker for developers, much less users.
Besides, such weak device would only serve to be Sony own Series S. A device heavily hated by the development community.
Imma go out on a limb and say "no".
Predicted final numbers of the PS5 is closer to 100 million than 120 million as of now.
You are asking folks to pay 1200-1500 dollars for that experience.
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Update from Resetera. If true this point towards fall 2027 release which is interesting.
From the thread :
zhangzhonghao has been pretty reliable in the past, and has previously leaked legitimate roadmaps
>No more RDNA5 codename, after RDNA4 it's UDNA.
>MI400 and RX9000 using the same UDNA, architecture using GCN-like ALU design.
>UDNA Gaming GPU tentative plan 26 Q2 mass production
>Sony's PS6 will be using UDNA, the CPU has not yet been determined whether it's ZEN4 or ZEN5
>Sony's handhelds will also use AMD hardware
From the thread :
zhangzhonghao has been pretty reliable in the past, and has previously leaked legitimate roadmaps
>No more RDNA5 codename, after RDNA4 it's UDNA.
>MI400 and RX9000 using the same UDNA, architecture using GCN-like ALU design.
>UDNA Gaming GPU tentative plan 26 Q2 mass production
>Sony's PS6 will be using UDNA, the CPU has not yet been determined whether it's ZEN4 or ZEN5
>Sony's handhelds will also use AMD hardware
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The Switch's success is not based on the fact that it is a handheld, and it's not based on the fact that it can be a stationary console. It is both and people use it both ways.
Even buying a Sony PS6 handheld and a Sony stationary console together would be not as convenient as a Switch, and would probably cost 4-5x as much as a Switch2 or 3.
Even buying a Sony PS6 handheld and a Sony stationary console together would be not as convenient as a Switch, and would probably cost 4-5x as much as a Switch2 or 3.
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No there will be not.
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PS6 handheld will be niche device. But if Sony can sell it for $399 in 2028 then it will do ok.
I was going to post the exact same thing lol, but you said it first. And I think I’ve posted before; I feel like a lot of these companies don’t understand why the Switch is a success (Valve included). If their takeaway is “handheld gaming” is “booming” again, is just completely wrong. Kind of feel like those BOTW clones who copied the art and aesthetic of the game and didn’t understand that it’s the open-air nature of the game; that’s why it’s huge, not just the cell shading, glider, and long green grass lol. They copied the surface level stuff but the core nature of the game went over their heads.
The Switch is a modular hybrid console. You can play it docked. You can play it handheld and in tabletop mode. It has detachable controllers which means two controllers out of the box, which allows co-op play. It also allows more freedom. You don’t have to use the default option if you don’t want to. You can choose from a variety of third party options. And the docking is not just a simple TV out (those types of devices have existed before). The Switch has increased power to transform itself into a console. The switching between portable and dock is also very fast and hassle free. The seemlessness of the transformation of the device to various modes that allow you to play anywhere is why it is a success. Why the hardware clicked. That’s the big main reason. Not just because it’s a handheld. And of course, the library of EXCLUSIVE games and IPs. The first handheld to play console games on the go, not just “handheld or mobile” games. The joint library. Nintendo joining their dev pipeline to support it (both used to be handheld and console ips and games existing on it). And one last thing, PHYSICAL MEDIA. The games are on the carts. NO INSTALLS. Most games anyway.
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Who knows, but i'm thinking that "PS6 handheld" is just Portal 2.0, everything has a soc, even my Nintendo Alarmo. So people telling me that they are developing a SoC tells me absolutely nothing about the device.
Or maybe is a "PC Handheld" without any exclusive stuff, but i have my doubts.
Or maybe is a "PC Handheld" without any exclusive stuff, but i have my doubts.
I think it could be an SX and SS situation, but in that case the weakest SKU would be a handheld.
But if the handheld isn't cheaper, then I don't see how it will work.
They need something priced like a mass market product, like consoles used to be 5 years ago.
Who knows, maybe finally something with a price that an ordinary Japanese citizen can buy.
About stationary vs handheld: Nothing stops Sony from launching a type of dock to connect the handheld to a TV (and play with a Dualsense).
It would be more or less like charging the Dualsense battery: you can simply plug a cable into the socket, but Sony released that nifty charger for that.
The PS6P could have an HDMI input to connect to a TV, but a stylish dock wouldn't be a bad idea.
But if the handheld isn't cheaper, then I don't see how it will work.
They need something priced like a mass market product, like consoles used to be 5 years ago.
Who knows, maybe finally something with a price that an ordinary Japanese citizen can buy.
About stationary vs handheld: Nothing stops Sony from launching a type of dock to connect the handheld to a TV (and play with a Dualsense).
It would be more or less like charging the Dualsense battery: you can simply plug a cable into the socket, but Sony released that nifty charger for that.
The PS6P could have an HDMI input to connect to a TV, but a stylish dock wouldn't be a bad idea.
Considering they will not be able to sell PS5 at the low prices of PS4, 2027 could be a good timing to keep anual hardware sales at higher levels.
PS4 cross-gen won't be entirely over by 2027 even. We might have EAFC across PS4/5/6 at once (plus NSW1/2 and 3+ Xboxes).
Also RIP PS5 Pro. In retrospect it probably wasn't worth releasing, though they probably needed to beta PSSR.
Incredible that Sony will go an entire generation without a single exclusive*. What a sad state of affairs.
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Crazy thar 2027 years feels too soon despite the fact it's 7 years. Tells a lot about this current generation.
PS5 sales are past peak and GTA magic will only work once. So better focus on the next device.
PS5 sales are past peak and GTA magic will only work once. So better focus on the next device.
Well they wont have exclusives amymore since they release their games on PC. So this is more a criticism of strategy than a criticism of pipeline.
