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Kadokawa FY3/2024 Q2 Earnings Release - Game Segment Cml Net Sales ¥13,670M (-20.23% YoY), Cml Operating Profit ¥4,028M (-46.94% YoY). Armored Core VI

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(They publish Dark Souls)
Link to slides: https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/9468/ir_material_for_fiscal_ym13/143593/00.pdf

Note: There are a lot of slides since they go over their mid-term plan which includes the word AI being used a few times.

Link to Q1 FY3/2024 thread: https://www.installbaseforum.com/forums/threads/kadokawa-fy3-2024-q1-earnings-release-game-segment-net-sales-¥4-308m-65-76-yoy-operating-profit-¥1-156m-82-4-yoy-elden-ring-d.1845/

Cumulative Net Sales ¥13,670M (-20.23% YoY)

Cumulative Operating Profit ¥4,028M (-46.94% YoY)

Q2 Net Sales ¥9,362M (+105.58% YoY)

Q2 Operating Income ¥2,871M (+180.92% YoY)

Quoting from the slides:
• Sales declined on a YTD basis from the previous year, when ELDEN RING significantly contributed to sales, but increased in 2Q alone due to the strong start of the new title ARMORED CORE VI FIRES OF RUBICON.
- ARMORED CORE VI achieved a major success with over 700,000 units sold in Japan. Current sales reflects domestic sales.
- Repeat sales of past titles, including ELDEN RING, remained strong.
• Spike Chunsoft recorded an increase in sales thanks to the new titles such as Master Detective Archives: RAIN CODE and repeat sales.

As a result of the above factors, profit decreased on a YTD basis but significantly increased in 2Q.

Outlook for 2nd Half
• Global sales of ARMORED CORE VI are expected to grow. Measures for maximizing LTV of ELDEN RING will be taken.
• Spike Chunsoft will release several new titles, including Shiren the Wanderer. To further increase sales and profits, the mobile game of The Eminence in Shadow will take collaborative measures with the second season of its animated title.

Screenshot:
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Random screenshots again:
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From the Q&A:
Q8: What is the development status of DLC for ELDEN RING and when will it be released?
A: We are currently working hard on the development of DLC for ELDEN RING but we have not announced a release date at this time.
 
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More than 700K for Armored Core 6 !

The last retail numbers I can find on GDL are 147 154 (PS5) + 69 383 (PS4) = 216 537

We have to assume a very important digital part here, and also a growing PC market in Japan I guess ?

Oh, also, Oshi no Ko is a must read o/
 
More than 700K for Armored Core 6 !

The last retail numbers I can find on GDL are 147 154 (PS5) + 69 383 (PS4) = 216 537

We have to assume a very important digital part here, and also a growing PC market in Japan I guess ?

Oh, also, Oshi no Ko is a must read o/
Half the sales of AC6 could be on PC in Japan. Huge.
 
More than 700K for Armored Core 6 !

The last retail numbers I can find on GDL are 147 154 (PS5) + 69 383 (PS4) = 216 537

We have to assume a very important digital part here, and also a growing PC market in Japan I guess ?

Oh, also, Oshi no Ko is a must read o/

Huge digital split once again.
Elden Ring had ~60% digital.
AC6 is looking closer to 70%!

We're reaching close to Western digital ratios here

Wasn't like half (or more) than the JP sales of ER from PC(+Xbox) already?

There has been 0 data on platform splits afaik
 
Digital share is getting huge in Japan, making retail only data quite useless. Wonder when publishers will start sharing digital with Famitsu/MC. Seem like AC6 sold 450k on PS and 250K on PC.
 
Assuming a 50% digital ratio on console AC6 is presumptuous given Falcom's 20% as the only real barometer we have.

thats not data, its a 3rd party estimate. Like Famitsu digital its useless.

Actual digital data is recieved from 3rd party publishers, Sony, Nintendo, or Valve.
We all know why you're saying that but Kadaokawa ASCII Lab's modeling also comes from data collection. It isn't simply polling panels (like the old Famitsu digital charts) and they'd presumably also have access to any hard data from other group companies like (notably) From Software, Spike Chunsoft and Gotcha Gotcha Games.

All sales trackers are estimates, no one has 100% market coverage. That doesn't make them useless.

edit: The Japanese PC gaming market grew 43% in 2002. I would guess Elden Ring played a large role in that.
 
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Digital share is getting huge in Japan, making retail only data quite useless. Wonder when publishers will start sharing digital with Famitsu/MC. Seem like AC6 sold 450k on PS and 250K on PC.

Hopefully soon, we get digital in US, UK, FR and GER (occasionally SPN), JPN is the last major market.

I reckon 50% digital PS5, so 500K PS, 200K PC
 
Where is PC estimated?
PC estimate relies on what you estimate PS digital is, which is a circular train of thought.

400K PS physical, 40-50% digital = 670-800K PS alone.

The reasoning is explained in the quoted post. You're pulling numbers out of your ass with far less justification and just oozing of obvious bias, lol.
 
Hopefully soon, we get digital in US, UK, FR and GER (occasionally SPN), JPN is the last major market.

I reckon 50% digital PS5, so 500K PS, 200K PC
We get a small slice of digital in those western markets, usually from a packaged console centric panel of publishers and in some cases ignoring all PC storefronts outside Steam. The fact digital goes largely or entirely unrepresented from major publishers like Nintendo, Valve, Riot, Blizzard, CD Projekt or Roblox and also 99% of AA, boutique and indie publishers paints an incredibly skewed picture of the actual marketplace.

Japan isn't the last major market to cover, we've yet to have one major market with real comprehensive digital coverage. The industry has so far to go here and the old packaged oriented trackers that cover console (plus PC now, kinda) are in the stone age compared to the modeling we see for mobile or PC (focused) tracking from newer tech firms.
 
The reasoning is explained in the quoted post. You're pulling numbers out of your ass with far less justification and just oozing of obvious bias, lol.

Did you even read my post?
The PC estimate relies on PS digital estimate, its not derived from somewhere else lmao

I, and everyone else, is literally doing the same thing:
physical sales -> shipment
Estimate PS digital
Rest is PC

So again, how are we estimating PS digital?
 
Did you even read my post?
The PC estimate relies on PS digital estimate, its not derived from somewhere else lmao

I, and everyone else, is literally doing the same thing:
physical sales -> shipment
Estimate PS digital
Rest is PC

So again, how are we estimating PS digital?
The problem is that you are estimating digital while prioritizing the conclusion that confirms your bias that Playstation is doing far better digitally relative to the market.
Ignoring the 50% PC guess, the other estimates use the basis off non-stock limited games like Falcom's 20% digital from when they only natively developed Playstation games. Logically, it suggests digital should be 30%, maybe 40% from Playstation. At 40% digital for Playstation, it would be 430k PS and 270k PC at absolute best for Playstation. We should expect a that this would be an overestimation of Playstation. Marco's estimate is probably the one we should lean on unless we get more precise data.
 
The problem is that you are estimating digital while prioritizing the conclusion that confirms your bias that Playstation is doing far better digitally relative to the market.
Ignoring the 50% PC guess, the other estimates use the basis off non-stock limited games like Falcom's 20% digital from when they only natively developed Playstation games. Logically, it suggests digital should be 30%, maybe 40% from Playstation. At 40% digital for Playstation, it would be 430k PS and 270k PC at absolute best for Playstation. We should expect a that this would be an overestimation of Playstation. Marco's estimate is probably the one we should lean on unless we get more precise data.

To be fair we also had PS exclusive EDF with much higher digital. In general I would say we should be careful when the sample size is so small not to let potential outliers skew estimates.

An interesting comparison would be Steamdb numbers compared to something like MH World(which we got leaked figures for), I remember Elden Ring was higher.
 
Not surprised seeing this. I think it’s a bit of both… physical for PS shrinks & digital grows (although market share as a whole for PS is shrinking)

PC is just growing in general given Elden rings PC sales this shouldn’t be a shocker & last report I read was that last year the PC market in Japan grew a pretty decent amount.
 
This really throws a wrench on a lot of the discussion regarding PlayStation games' performance on the charts, when the digital split on the console can be this high.

Unfortunately we don't have precise data on the PC sales for this (or mostly anything really) and, as such, the estimations of how much of those 700k came from PC could go one way or another depending on the narrative you're trying to push.
 
The problem is that you are estimating digital while prioritizing the conclusion that confirms your bias that Playstation is doing far better digitally relative to the market.
Ignoring the 50% PC guess, the other estimates use the basis off non-stock limited games like Falcom's 20% digital from when they only natively developed Playstation games. Logically, it suggests digital should be 30%, maybe 40% from Playstation. At 40% digital for Playstation, it would be 430k PS and 270k PC at absolute best for Playstation. We should expect a that this would be an overestimation of Playstation. Marco's estimate is probably the one we should lean on unless we get more precise data.

To be more specific, going by the estimate I posted in the MC thread:

280.000 units sold on PC would result on 420.000 units sold on consoles, with 219.000 coming from retail sell-through (PS4+PS5). As of September 24th, the shipment range I calculated was 237.125 to 254.471; let's use a value more in the middle for retail shipments as of September 30th, 2023, therefore around 245.500 units. That would leave 174.500 units sold through the PSN (PS4 + PS5), which would be 41,55% of overall console shipments and 44,36% of retail sell-through + digital sales.

300.000 units sold on PC would result on 400.000 units sold on consoles, with 219.000 coming from retail sell-through (PS4+PS5). As of September 24th, the shipment range I calculated was 237.125 to 254.471; let's use a value more in the middle for retail shipments as of September 30th, 2023, therefore around 245.500 units. That would leave 154.500 units sold through the PSN (PS4 + PS5), which would be 38,62% of overall console shipments and 41,36% of retail sell-through + digital sales.

In conclusion, in my estimate overall I was already accounting for a high share of overall console sales coming from digital stores.

@Oregano Earth Defense Force 6 enjoyed an early 15% discount for both the Standard and the Digital Deluxe editions, both for digital pre-orders and shortly after the game's launch; I don't think we should discount the impact of this early incentive.

EDIT: Added the detailed scenario where the PC version sold 300.000 units.
 
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This really throws a wrench on a lot of the discussion regarding PlayStation games' performance on the charts, when the digital split on the console can be this high.
Idk, even if we double the software sales (so 50% digital, which is unlikely imo) the numbers are still rather bad compared to previous generations.
 
The problem is that you are estimating digital while prioritizing the conclusion that confirms your bias that Playstation is doing far better digitally relative to the market.
Ignoring the 50% PC guess, the other estimates use the basis off non-stock limited games like Falcom's 20% digital from when they only natively developed Playstation games. Logically, it suggests digital should be 30%, maybe 40% from Playstation. At 40% digital for Playstation, it would be 430k PS and 270k PC at absolute best for Playstation. We should expect a that this would be an overestimation of Playstation. Marco's estimate is probably the one we should lean on unless we get more precise data.

One thing to keep in mind is digital share increasing with time. In UK FF16 released in June had 56% digital share first week. Spider Man 2 released in Octuber seem to have around 65% digital share first week.

When was the last time we got digital split from Japan?
 
One thing to keep in mind is digital share increasing with time. In UK FF16 released in June had 56% digital share first week. Spider Man 2 released in Octuber seem to have around 65% digital share first week.

When was the last time we got digital split from Japan?
...you really think the digital ratio went up 9% in 4 months? Those are two different genres of games.
 
Unfortunately we don't have precise data on the PC sales for this (or mostly anything really) and, as such, the estimations of how much of those 700k came from PC could go one way or another depending on the narrative you're trying to push.

Quoted for truth.

Where is PC estimated?
PC estimate relies on what you estimate PS digital is, which is a circular train of thought.

400K PS physical, 40-50% digital = 670-800K PS alone.

And I lean closer to enpleinjour's "pulled out of his ass" and "bias" number.
 
Where is PC estimated?
PC estimate relies on what you estimate PS digital is, which is a circular train of thought.

400K PS physical, 40-50% digital = 670-800K PS alone.

I might miss something but what is that 400k PS physical about ?
We do know that retail shipment is around ~250k at best so I'm curious.

Sad they're not sharing more accurate data for Rain Code.
 
I might miss something but what is that 400k PS physical about ?
We do know that retail shipment is around ~250k at best so I'm curious.

Sad they're not sharing more accurate data for Rain Code.
I think they're talking about Elden Ring?
 
The problem is that you are estimating digital while prioritizing the conclusion that confirms your bias that Playstation is doing far better digitally relative to the market.
Ignoring the 50% PC guess, the other estimates use the basis off non-stock limited games like Falcom's 20% digital from when they only natively developed Playstation games. Logically, it suggests digital should be 30%, maybe 40% from Playstation. At 40% digital for Playstation, it would be 430k PS and 270k PC at absolute best for Playstation. We should expect a that this would be an overestimation of Playstation. Marco's estimate is probably the one we should lean on unless we get more precise data.

You're making the same mistake. Taking a single game, with one of the lowest digital ratios we've heard of, and using that as the assumption.

We have no data on the exact avg digital rate in Japan for full games on Playstation. Everyone is guessing, without any significant data.

What we do have is 6-7 data points, showing us a range, which I've already made a thread on:
  • FF7R : 700k sold (close to sold out), 1M+ total => 30+% digital
  • P5R : 260k shipped, 400k total => 35% digital
  • 13 sentinels : 120-150k sold/shipped (?), 200k total => 25-40% digital
  • MHW : 2.6M sold (inc Iceborne Master edition), 3.18M total => 20% digital (35% not inc the master edition)
  • Elden Ring - 370k sold, 1M+ total = ~<60% digital
  • EDF6 - 92k sold, 300k total => ~<70% digital
    • 360K 07/03/23, ~140K sold = ~60% digital
  • Falcom - 20% digital on Playstation
  • Witcher 3 - 1M total sold, ~400k physical => 50-60% digital
  • Disgaea 7 - 50k sold, 23-32K shipped retail => 50-60% digital
  • Melty Blood: Type Lumina - 400K sold, 32-40K shipped retail => 90% digital
  • Ghost of Tsushima - 1M sold, ~600K retail => 40% digital
  • Armored Core 6 - 216k sold (PS), 700K total = ~70% digital

Ragnarok released in Nov 2022 had first week digital ratio of just over 50% in UK. So it does seem like digital ratio is increasing with time for Sony triple AAA SP games.

SM2 had a digital rate of 65% in the UK as well.
 
You're making the same mistake. Taking a single game, with one of the lowest digital ratios we've heard of, and using that as the assumption.

We have no data on the exact avg digital rate in Japan for full games on Playstation. Everyone is guessing, without any significant data.

What we do have is 6-7 data points, showing us a range, which I've already made a thread on:




SM2 had a digital rate of 65% in the UK as well.
Falcom was asked about their PlayStation games not a single game. Also despite saying you want to talk about PS digital you are including games with both PC or Switch in the mix. You also threw in games that were long past launch and were in catalog territory which will have much different behavior. 13 sentinels managed to sell out post launch in what was word of mouth overwhelming retail. Ghost was also sold out at launch.
 
You're making the same mistake. Taking a single game, with one of the lowest digital ratios we've heard of, and using that as the assumption.

We have no data on the exact avg digital rate in Japan for full games on Playstation. Everyone is guessing, without any significant data.

What we do have is 6-7 data points, showing us a range, which I've already made a thread on:




SM2 had a digital rate of 65% in the UK as well.

We have a very recent data point that we were lucky enough to get the full sale details on as well, Ed-0: Zombie Uprising.

y_650d3d311832a.webp


The game wasn't a big seller by any means, but just in terms of actual confirmed sales breakdown information it's one of the few examples we have from the horse's mouth.

For the PlayStation 5 version, 2480 physical and 1826 downloadable versions were sold on Japan (4306 units in total). This is a 42 percent digital ratio in Japan.
 
Idk, even if we double the software sales (so 50% digital, which is unlikely imo) the numbers are still rather bad compared to previous generations.
They'd still be worse than the WiiU, in fact. From the decline of Playstation in Japan thread:
PS5 software sales at retail are bad. But how much bad?

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Let's play a game.
How high PS5 digital ratio must be in Japan so that PS5 total software sales (physical+digital) match just the physical software sales of previous consoles during the first 3 calendar years?

Total physical software sales in the first 3 calendar years, in parenthesis PS5 digital ratio to match a past console physical software sales (source: source: Media Create Top 1000 for the period 2009-2022; Media Create Top 500 for the period 2006-2008):

PS5: 2.370.767

WIU: 5.565.761 (PS5 digital ratio "mandatory to match": 57.4%)
PSV: 5.931.134 (PS5 digital ratio "mandatory to match": 60.0%)
PS3: 7.828.937 (PS5 digital ratio "mandatory to match": 69.7%)
PS4: 16.185.598 (PS5 digital ratio "mandatory to match": 85.3%)
WII: 26.488.620 (PS5 digital ratio "mandatory to match": 91.0%)
NSW: 37.628.996 (PS5 digital ratio "mandatory to match": 93.7%)
3DS: 47.274.721 (PS5 digital ratio "mandatory to match": 95.0%)

Note: CY1 is special because consoles have different launch date and some console listed had much lower digital software sales compared to nowadays or even non-existant.
A super high (for Japan) digital ratio isn't saving PS5 sw sales from being dreadful.
 
For what it's worth Armored Core 6 already has (slightly) more Japanese-language reviews than Elden Ring on Steam:
AC6 - 4219
ER - 4200
Armored Core seems to be relatively stronger on PC than Elden Ring, which is already more popular than most other games, so I personally would say PC definitely plays a large part of From Software games' sales (not the majority though).

---
By the way while checking those I also decided to check another big series like Monster Hunter and was surprised that World and Rise only have 3k and 1.8k reviews respectively - it's definitely lower than I would've expected, but then again, both of these came out ~10 months after the console releases so maybe Japanese players just stuck to the PS4/Switch versions
 
This really throws a wrench on a lot of the discussion regarding PlayStation games' performance on the charts
No it doesn't? I encourage you to click on the link in my above post where this was discussed, retail sw sales are so bad in the PS5's first three cy that a digital ratio of 57% would be necessary just to match the WiiU. That doesn't materialy change the conversation around PS5 sw sales.
 
No it doesn't? I encourage you to click on the link in my above post where this was discussed, retail sw sales are so bad in the PS5's first three cy that a digital ratio of 57% would be necessary just to match the WiiU. That doesn't materialy change the conversation around PS5 sw sales.
Even better: it's 57% assuming Wii U digital is zero.
 
Even better: it's 57% assuming Wii U digital is zero.
Right, again, I encourage people to click on the above link where it's discussed. PS5 retail sw isn't just bad, it's eye poppingly, hilariously, comicaly bad. I think some are not quite up to date on just how horrible the numbers are. A high digital simply wouldn't be enough to change that fact.
 
No it doesn't? I encourage you to click on the link in my above post where this was discussed, retail sw sales are so bad in the PS5's first three cy that a digital ratio of 57% would be necessary just to match the WiiU. That doesn't materialy change the conversation around PS5 sw sales.

That's an inaccurate analysis for many reasons:
  • GaaS now accounts for 50% of playtime on PS and 40% of that is F2P
  • PS5 owners have BC and buy PS4 software, PS4 software needs to be accounted somehow
  • Launch digital is =/ LTD digital.
We already know JP 3rd parties have total digital ratios of 80-90% even in Japan.
 
That's an inaccurate analysis for many reasons:
  • GaaS now accounts for 50% of playtime on PS and 40% of that is F2P
That doesn't change ps5 sw sales and its implications for Japanese publishers. PS5 owners don't buy games anymore, if that's because of f2p or exporting or something else doesn't change that fact.
  • PS5 owners have BC and buy PS4 software,
Total speculation on your part.
  • PS4 software needs to be accounted somehow
BC has never changed sw buying habits, consumers don't forgo new gen sw for a previous consoles games, at least they haven't in the past. Why would they now? Do we see this same (speculative) phenomenon in other markets? Are consumers in the US, UK, France ect. buying PS4 games to play on their PS5 leading to tiny PS5 sw sales in those markets?
  • Launch digital is =/ LTD digital.
  • We already know JP 3rd parties have total digital ratios of 80-90% even in Japan.
Maybe I'm not getting what you're saying here? Are you seriously contending that JP retail games on the PS5 end up at 80-90% digital? WHAT?
 
Just a reminder this is a thread about Kadokawa's financial results and not about the digital ecosystems of platforms in Japan.

Side note: Interesting to see My Love Story with Yamada-kun at Lv 999 ranking so high for their publishing business. I guess the anime was really well received.
 
I dont know why its so hard to believe that Armored Core VI have a high digital ratio on PS5 just because Falcom games or whatever they make have low digital ratio on the plataform.

The data is there and i doubt that ACVI sold better on PC that PS4/PS5 in Japan
 
I dont know why its so hard to believe that Armored Core VI have a high digital ratio on PS5 just because Falcom games or whatever they make have low digital ratio on the plataform.

The data is there and i doubt that ACVI sold better on PC that PS4/PS5 in Japan
The data is definitely not there, that's why everyone is speculating. As @Iraiza said, AC6 already has more Japanese Steam reviews than Elden Ring, which at least implies that PC sales were very good.
 
I'm curious since I didn't see anything mentioned in the slides and I'm not super familiar with thier pipeline, but has anything come of the partnership they entered with Sony and Cyberagent? The announcement was almost 3 years ago now.

 
If AC6 has done better on PC compared to ER, my assumption is that is because it is more niche comparatively.
 
Wait, there's a new Toaru series? ITEM was that popular? It's crazy how many spinoffs this franchise has. Is Index even still going in some form or is it just spinoffs?
 
Launch digital is =/ LTD digital.
We already know JP 3rd parties have total digital ratios of 80-90% even in Japan.
So, since enpleinjour hasn't responded as yet does anyone else have an idea of what he could've meant by this? It seems like ridiculous statement, especially as it relates to PS5 retail releases. Honestly curious.
 
So, since enpleinjour hasn't responded as yet does anyone else have an idea of what he could've meant by this? It seems like ridiculous statement, especially as it relates to PS5 retail releases. Honestly curious.
What I think he means is that early sales of a game tend to skew physical, while later sales then skew digital, which is generally true imo. How he gets the 80-90% number though, idk.
 
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