Kadokawa / Famitsu's online seminary "2022 Autumn Game Industry Status and Outlook: The seeds of games sprout beyond the pandemic"

[MarcoP90]

Thanks to @ggx2ac for finding out the original news.

浜村弘一氏の“2022年秋季 ゲーム産業の現状と展望 ～パンデミックを越えた先に芽吹くゲームの種子”リポート。任天堂は大型タイトルが今後もハードを牽引、SIEはPC展開とライブゲームに注目 | ゲーム・エンタメ最新情報のファミ通.com

2022年10月28日にファミ通編集長などを歴任し、KADOKAWAデジタルエンタテインメント担当シニアアドバイザーを務める浜村弘一氏がオンラインセミナーを実施した。「2022年秋季 ゲーム産業の現状と展望 ～パンデミックを越えた先に芽吹くゲームの種子～」と題した本セミナーでは、コロナ渦からロシアによるウクライナ侵攻にかけてのゲーム産業の動向について、さまざまなデータに基づいて分析。今後の展望についても語られた。ここでは、その模様をお届けしよう。

www.famitsu.com

Both the seminary title and the extracts reported here are translated via DeepL. The source for the Japanese sales retail numbers (hardware and software) is Famitsu.

General overview on the gaming market

The seminar first mentioned the recent gaming market. The size of the global game content (software) market was approximately 21.9 trillion yen in 2021 (calculated at 100 yen to the dollar), growing approximately 6% from the previous year. Hamamura recalled that the Corona period's nest egg demand is still leading to growth in the video game industry.

The peak-out of the Nintendo Switch and the lack of PlayStation 5 ("PS5") inventory have led to an overall decline in hardware sales in the US and European markets in the first half of the year, while Japan saw a slight increase in the April-September period of 2022. Hamamura attributed this largely to killer titles, and mentioned "Splatoon 3," which was released on Nintendo Switch in the first half of this year. While this title is popular worldwide, it has become an extraordinarily killer content in Japan, among others, and "the record-setting start of this title has boosted the (domestic) market," he said.

The following slide is about the Japanese gaming market. It compares the first half of FY3/2022 with the first half of FY3/2023, and these are the main stats

First half FY3/2022 (March 29th, 2021 - September 26th, 2021)

Hardware - 814,5 billions of Yen
Packaged software - 634,7 billions of Yen
Total - 1.449,2 billions of Yen

First half FY3/2023 (March 28th, 2022 - September 25th, 2022)

Hardware - 886,6 billions of Yen (+8,9% YoY)
Software - 631,5 billions of Yen (-0,5% YoY)
Total - 1.518, 2 billions of Yen (+4.8% YoY)

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Japanese software sales for the first-half of FY3/2022 (March 28th, 2022 - September 25th, 2022)

Nintendo

In terms of cumulative sales of each hardware in Japan, Nintendo Switch recorded 2,629,093,093 units. Hamamura said, "The concept of incorporating the needs of both console and handheld consoles was correct. As for PS5, which has been in stock short supply since last year, Hamamura expressed his hope that this will gradually change once hardware becomes plentiful.

As for the various platforms, Nintendo's aforementioned "Splatoon 3" has sold 3.45 million units in three days, surpassing "Atsumare Animal Crossing," and the Nintendo Switch is also selling well. While the release of popular titles has boosted hardware sales in the past, there are other high-profile titles coming in the future, such as "Pokémon Scarlet Violet" (scheduled for release on November 18, 2022) and "The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom" (scheduled for release on May 12, 2023), which are expected to drive hardware sales. Hamamura predicts that these titles will drive the hardware.

Sony

SIE, which is still short of PS5 supplies, has picked up the expansion of "PlayStation Games for PC," in which PlayStation platform games can be enjoyed on PC, and the acquisition of mobile game developer Savage Game Studios. Game Studios, a mobile game developer. The two pillars of "PC development" and "live games" are aimed at further earnings, and by developing PlayStation games on PCs at a staggered pace, the company aims to attract people who can enjoy the latest titles on their consoles earlier. Mr. Hamamura analyzed that the company is also trying to attract people who are interested in the newest console games by offering PlayStation games on PCs at a staggered time.

In addition to the "Essential" plan, which allows users to enjoy existing services such as online multiplayer, a new subscription service, PlayStation Plus, will be available in June. A new, more expensive plan was added in June, which allows users to enjoy PS5 games for free, but it does not cover newly released AAA titles, which means that many users may still be on the Essential plan.

Microsoft

In contrast, Microsoft's strategy is centered on its subscription service, Xbox Game Pass, which allows users to play the latest AAA titles as soon as they are released. The "Ultimate" plan allows users to play the latest AAA titles as soon as they are released. He also mentioned the participation of Riatt Games as an important point to be noted in the future. The company's globally popular PC games such as "League of Legends" and "Valorant" will be playable on the Xbox, which he said "will have a significant impact.

Breakdown of the differences between the three subscription services

The state of PC, VR, indie games and e-Sports

PC

As new developments in the domestic game industry, Mr. Hamamura noted the significant increase in the number of PC (Steam)-related exhibits at the Tokyo Game Show 2022, which was open to the public for the first time in three years, and the large scale exhibits of VR and indie game-related products. In fact, the number of PC game users in Japan has been increasing year by year. He cited the difficulty of obtaining high-end game consoles such as PS5 and the fact that such software can now be played on PCs, as well as the rise of e-sports as reasons for this increase. In addition, Steam Deck is scheduled to ship in Japan around the end of 2022, and the increase in PC game users is expected to accelerate.

VR

As for VR, the price of Meta Quest 2, which attracted much attention at the Tokyo Game Show 2022, was revised in August, and a new Meta Quest Pro was also announced, with a strong price tag of 226,800 yen. In addition, the PICO 4 will be released in October 2022, and the PlayStation VR2 is scheduled for release in 2023 (*recently announced for release on February 22, 2023). With these new headsets and the Metaverse movement, Hamamura predicts that VR will also start to gain momentum in 2022.

Indie Games

As for indie games, there have been moves to create works with the support of major publishers, such as the recently popular "Tenho no Sakunahime" (Marvelous), but publishers such as Shueisha (Shueisha Game Creators CAMP) and Kodansha (Kodansha Game Creator's Lab) have also established similar (Kodansha Game Creators Lab) also established similar projects. He stated that indie games, which used to fill in the gaps between works by major publishers, are now being marketed as works of art, and as a result, "the gap between publishers and developers and between indies and major companies is becoming less and less clear.

e-Sports

Meanwhile, the e-sports market, which had been stagnant due to the Corona period, which prevented free overseas travel and real events, is expected to grow again now that the Corona has dawned, and the global market size is expected to increase approximately 1.3 times in the three years starting in 2022. The world's top-class e-sports teams have come to have corporate value on par with some MLB and NHL teams, and Mr. Hamamura also evaluated the top overseas teams, saying that they are becoming comparable to major sports teams.

Under such circumstances, the e-sports market in Japan, like overseas, has been stagnant during the Corona period, but from around 2021, real-life competitions will gradually be held. In addition, "DreamHack," a complex entertainment event that includes games, animation, and music, has been announced for the first time in Japan (East Asia), and is expected to grow and flourish along with Corona.

In the world championships, the Japanese e-sports team "ZETA DIVISION" placed third at the "2022 VALORANT Champions Tour Stage 1 - Masters Reykjavík" held in April. ZETA DIVISION" achieved the feat of placing 3rd in the "VALORANT" tournament "2022 VALORANT Champions Tour Stage 1 - Masters Reykjavík". This achievement has made "VALORANT" one of the most popular e-sports titles in Japan, and the "RAGE VALORANT 2022 Spring" held in May recorded the highest attendance ever for a paid e-sports event in Japan, further boosting the popularity of the event. The "RAGE VALORANT 2022 Spring" in May recorded the highest attendance ever for a paid e-sports event in Japan, further energizing the entertainment industry. He analyzed this as a sign that large-scale, pay-per-view events are beginning to be established in Japan as well.

What about the future of the gaming market in a post-pandemic world?

Mr. Hamamura also discussed the future of the gaming industry. During the Corona, the gaming market expanded due to the demand for nest eggs, and the accompanying increase in living in virtual space and the sale and purchase of skins, which led to the meta-versification of games. However, now that the Corona has dawned, there are signs of an economic downturn on a global scale due to the invasion of Ukraine, which may have affected game billing and other activities.

Meanwhile, the video game market is also moving to cope with the current recession, and one such example is the introduction of major free-to-play home video game titles such as "Overwatch 2". In Japan, "Megaton-class Musashi" will be free to play with the latest title "Megaton-class Musashi X" to be released on December 1, and TV anime is also being distributed for free on YouTube after the latest episode airs.

In addition, the business schemes in the game industry have been diversifying in recent years, including market expansion such as the porting of AAA titles to PCs, the introduction of advertising, and new Web3 markets such as Metaverse and NFT, and IP holders are required to be able to respond to these trends, Hamamura said. He also analyzed the situation in which developers, whose presence is increasing due to the revitalization of the indie game market, are developing AAA titles in cooperation with IP holders, while at the same time beginning to offer their own copyrighted titles in line with diversified business schemes. He continued that the advent of Web3 is making it easier for individual creators to enter the game market, and they will be able to create and trade games and game parts.

He concluded by expressing hope for the development of the gaming industry, saying that the diversification of these business schemes has the potential to boost the market even during the recession at the end of the Corona.