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Japan Sales: OLED vs Lite Model, Which Will Sell More Lifetime?

Tbone5189

Tbone5189

Member
Analyst
OLED vs LITE in Japan!

OLED release and there is a huge supply issue (WW) that is currently going on right now. Despite the system being more expensive, it looks to be a nice upgrade that many people still haven’t gotten their hands on yet. But how does that compared to Nintendo last new model brought to the Japanese market back in 2019?
By launch week aligned

W# LITE Model — ( +LTD) — OLED — ( +LTD) ———> LTD Difference

W1: 177.936 — 177.936 — 138.409 — 138.409 —> 39.527
W2: 80.757 —— 258.693 — 32.494 —— 170.903 —> 87.790
W3: 38.668 —— 297.361 — 61.169 —— 232.072 —> 65.288
W4: 17.316 —— 314.677 — 30.805 —— 262.877 —> 51.800
W5: 19.246 —— 333.923 — 21.620 —— 284.497 —> 49.426
W6: 18.238 —— 352.171 — 23.708 —— 308.205 —> 43.966
W7: 66.272 —— 418.443




And currently there are more than 4260k Lite models in japan

JAPAN LITE SHIPMENTS

Q1: 390k
Q2: 970k (1360k)
Q3: 640k (2000k)
Q4: 360k (2360k)
Q5: 440k (2800k)
Q6: 620k (3420k)
Q7: 390k (3810k)
Q8: 340k (4150k)
Q9: 110k (4260k)
Q10: ???k

Lite was the budget model or handheld only consumers that were being targeted. To everyone surprise, despite the 2/3rds ($100 less) price tag compared to the original, WW and even japan rather had the OG model in comparison. Fast forward to present day, now we have OLED model, nsw first real upgrade model (if you exclude battery OG+) and is quickly selling out.

As of now it seems like it’s impossible for OLED to catch up with a 4.3mil+ head start but that’s what this thread was made for. What do you think will sell more lifetime? Will OLED catch up and sell 5mil+?

Post your 💭
switch-family
 
Lite.
Because the Lite is still selling and will probably reach 5m+ and the OLED does not replace the regular Switch.
 
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The Oled clearly has more appeal. It will depend on supply, revisions (cheaper, chargerless lite?) and positioning (discontinuation of the og switch).

Of course the elephant in the room is the release date of the Switch 2, as that would make a cheap lite the only sensible old-gen option. I'll vote for the OLED though, just because.
 
I'm thinking at some point the OLED becomes the standard Switch (replacing the OG Switch) and will therefore at some point have the plurality of sales since the Switch that actually switches seems to be the most popular version.
 
When you look at it, NSW is at 22.07mil before OLED released. How much more do you think NSW will sell lifetime? If it’s under 29mil then OLED won’t outsell Lite.
 
OLED will catch up because most people will buy the OLED model over the Switch going forward and people will upgrade to OLED. I think the OLED has been a pretty good move by Nintendo to extend the life for a 1 and a half years until the pro comes out. With price drops the Lite and OLED models will be the cheap alternatives to the pro and continue selling for a few more years after that.
 
OLED i think.
Lite is about ~17% of overall sales.
OLED is about ~7.4% of Lite overall sales (6 weeks on market).
With same dynamics it will take two years range to overperform Lite.
 
Depends entirely if they just phase out the regular Switch or not. If they do, it will, if not, it still might but it will be a lot closer.
 
I'm gonna say OLED...provided Nintendo can make enough and support it for a few years yet.
 
OLED probably. It is the hottest item now for japan market.
 
Assuming no stock issues for years to come or Switch getting cut off sooner than expected, I do think OLED has a chance. Japan didn't latch onto the Lite that strongly; sales of the original model are still much stronger. OLED is basically just a better version of that and may eventually phase it out
 
I would say Lite as I believe Switch 2 will cut OLED’s legs short. It will not have enough time to catch up. The current shortage is also wasting some of OLED’s limited life span.
 
Oled
Yeah the lite has shown its really not the preferred product as many would think. With enough time in the market with any new hardware launching till end of 2023
 
If the Switch is really sticking around until early 2024 then I expect that they might start to slowly phase out the base Switch leaving only the OLED. So I'll go with that.
 
All depends on how long SWOLED gets on the market before Switch 2 releases (probably in March 2023) and eats its lunch completely; oh and also on whether or not the standard Switch model gets discontinued in favour of SWOLED.

Given enough time, SWOLED will definitely outsell Switch Lite, but time isn't really on SWOLED's side...
 
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