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Is Xenoblade Chronicles X underestimated?

Lelouch0612

Lelouch0612

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Xenoblade Chronicles X is coming back with a Definitive Edition on March 20th, so as early as next week. The game originally launched on WiiU and had a different proposition than the Xenoblade Chronicles. We know it didn't manage to cross 1m on WiiU, shackled by an underperforming platform.

The Xenoblade franchise has grown a lot during the Switch era with the whole trilogy (XC2, XC: DE, XC3) likely crossing 2M units on the platform.

For those that don't know much about the series and why it is beloved, there's a fan-made video below.




Now, Xenoblade Chronicles X is looking like a worthy rerelease, in line with the great work done by Monolith Soft in the past. It release timing is interesting, as the only Nintendo game in two months, but also two weeks before their Switch 2 Direct.

Do you believe the game will also cross 1M units in only 12 days ?
How close do you expect its launch sales to be from the other Xenoblade games?
Will the Switch audience show up once again, despite all the eyes focused on Switch 2?
Does the X subseries have a higher potential than other Xenoblade games?

Looking forward to read your thoughts ;)

Xenoblade-X-Year-2054.jpg
 
Xenobalde's unveiling on a random Tuesday was genuinely baffling and it probably played a role in the public's great reception of the announcement.

But on the topic of sales, yes, I think the game can sell 1M copies eventually. Can it reach 2M? I don't know yet. No one does, really. The uncertainty of the global economy and the imminent unveiling of the Switch 2's launch date and price will affect its sales.
 
I think its performance is highly dependent on whether there is a segment during the Switch 2 Direct that shows the game with significant resolution/framerate enhancements. If they showcase it and a couple of other games as a group of flagship enhanced titles I think it'll have a longer sales curve. Without that I think it'll significantly underperform relative to other Xeno games, less noticeably so in Japan but in US/Europe it's going to have a rough time.

By now I think there's more than enough data to show that if Nintendo want to maximise sales, they can't skip Directs anymore - in the last year or so I'd say Mario Party Jamboree is really the only title that hasn't noticeably suffered from the lack of a Direct. I know Switch 2 is the reason behind it, but I think relatively smaller titles like this need to be grouped into the Direct format alongside bigger stuff like Mario Party so that a wider group of customers are made aware of it.

As for this question:

Does the X subseries have a higher potential than other Xenoblade games?
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Even if it did, an awkward release spot at this stage in the Switch 1 life cycle simply can't be overcome I think. I don't think sales potential for these games is attached to particular series/subseries but something more akin to how Atlus/FromSoft operate, where they grow an audience attached to the studio reputation and gameplay specifics/genre rather than particular titles. I will say, as far as sales potential goes, they'd be much better served by having a non sci-fi RPG alternative to Xenoblade, rather than simultaneously operating a series and subseries that are completely interchangeable sci-fi JRPGs to casual observers. Whereas some other genre of fantasy or a contemporary setting might give them a break out hit of a different flavour than Xenoblade.
 
It’s weird because this game technically has everything going for it.
Crazy good graphics. Open world. Cool flying mech exploration. Redone UI that doesn’t immediately scare people off. Toooons of QoL updates. New story.
But… will people show up for it like it deserves?
 
I dont think it will do well in the west, Japan should do around Xenoblade 2 numbers in retail.

I dont think it will reach 1M too, little hype outside of a niche audience
 
Damage2 said:
I dont think it will do well in the west, Japan should do around Xenoblade 2 numbers in retail.

I dont think it will reach 1M too, little hype outside of a niche audience
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Every Xenoblade game has a niche audience, should still be enough to sell 1 million copies, that would be half the amount of normal Xenoblade games, which seems like a natural level of decline this late into the Switch lifespan. I don't see why the decline would be 60-70 % though compared to normal Xenoblade sales.
 
nah. it's a weird game within the larger Xenoblade series. it can serve as it's own thing; and even have more growth potential, but it would have to make some changes to really reach it's selling peak. online cooperative multiplayer is in, and there just needs to be a sequel to better accommodate that

as for Definitive Edition, it has the misfortune of being filler. the last full year of Switch, the out of nowhere announcement, squeezed between Donkey Kong Country 4 HD (also a filler but higher potential) and the Switch 2 presentation. IMO, they can hit 1M if Nintendo ships a lot of units, but I don't expect sell-through to hit that
 
It's the fourth Xenoblade game coming out on the ninth year of the Switch. There just isn't much wiggle room for a game like that. It'll sell 1 million but more than that I have my doubts.
 
Lelouch0612 said:
Do you believe the game will also cross 1M units in only 12 days ?
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Yes. If no, then it'll reach 1M during next quarter for sure. But I don't expect it to sell more than ~2M lifetime.

The announcement was very well received, with a lot of enthusiastic comments on YouTube and social media.

Damage2 said:
I dont think it will do well in the west, Japan should do around Xenoblade 2 numbers in retail.
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Wdym? The majority of this game’s sales will come from Western markets, just like with all other Xenoblade entries.
 
I think 1+ million should be a lock due to how big Switch is and how the Xenoblade fanbase has grown.

In case it doesn't pass 1 million by the end of March will we ever get the numbers from Nintendo? Since it wouldn't qualify for the "at least 1 million units sold in the current fiscal year" in FY25 or FY26.
 
Z-Z0 said:
I think 1+ million should be a lock due to how big Switch is and how the Xenoblade fanbase has grown.

In case it doesn't pass 1 million by the end of March will we ever get the numbers from Nintendo? Since it wouldn't qualify for the "at least 1 million units sold in the current fiscal year" in FY25 or FY26.
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We wouldn't since CESA stopped reporting million-sellers.
 
I don't think it's underestimated
Me think it will sell 1m+ for sure, not bad for the "remaster" of a game within a brand that is now around 2mil sales range, being released also this late in the lifecycle and being the 4th iteration of the franchise itself on the console
 
Yes, it is being underestimated. The socials have been pretty good and quite a bit of positive WoM has been generated over the past couple of weeks as more info has come out. But what I see people keep missing is that Open World games have sold incredibly well on Switch and this game is set to take advantage of that base of players who may be looking for their next fix.

I'd expect it to become the second best-selling Xenoblade on the system at 2,5 million units ww. 1-1.5 in the first 12 days. And by end of next fiscal quarter an additional 1 million.

Color me shocked if it becomes the best-selling entry.
 
the Switch is over saturated with Xenoblade and the system is in its twilight. It may crawl to 1M+. I hope the new features are good, I’m excited to play.
 
Lelouch0612 said:
Amazon preorders for the game, one week before launch:
  • Japan - 4.000+ (#6)
  • US - N/A
  • France - 1.000+ (#19)
  • Spain - 2.000+ (#2)
  • Germany - 1.000+ (#6)
  • UK - 1.000+ (#35)
Click to expand...

Do we have comparison with previous Xenoblade game release performance?

I personally believe X will have no problem selling 1m fast. Xenoblade fans has always been the most loyal and dedicated ones.(Like Fire emblem fans)

So i dont see the hardcore fans not supporting X there.
 
It will obviously sell 1m, the Xenoblade community is very very dedicated. I’d even describe it as feral.
 
Damage2 said:
I dont think it will do well in the west, Japan should do around Xenoblade 2 numbers in retail.

I dont think it will reach 1M too, little hype outside of a niche audience
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These two sentences don't match

If you expect Xenoblade 2 retail numbers you're ultra optimistic for Japan
347./101. [NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 2 # <RPG> (Nintendo) {2017.12.01} (¥7.980) - 5.136 / 337.531 (-86%) (97.732 <77,46%>)
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And basically hoping for comfortably more than half a million only in the country (it's a high priced SKU which makes it very voucher friendly and bound to lean towards a high digital ratio, Xenoblade DE, a cheaper game, was >50% digital, Xenoblade 3 was >60% digital)

If at the same time you don't expect it to do "well" in the west then that means sales crumbling down to absurd level outside Japan

Xenoblade 3 JP share of WW shipment was around <30% (>520k of 1.9M WW shipment)
Xenoblade DE JP share of WW shipment is somewhere below 30% as well (>350k out of 1.9M WW shipment, but the JP shipment number is 2y older than WW)

Even if we go towards a lopsided 40% share for Japan (which seems super unlikely) Xeno X DE would need to sell something like <200k retail to not get to 1M WW shipment.
<200k is 60% of Xenoblade 2 retail number

Mind it will sell less than 200k retail in Japan, maybe below 150k as well but that should be enough to reach 1M WW regardless.

A scenario where it won't reach 1M eventually should be a mix of lower retail in Japan and west dissapointing sales but that would be realistically 35% for Japan out of WW shipment (it's huge), and retail numbers below 140k
That's not impossible but within the unlikely territory for me
 
I think a lot of Switch users have been eager to play something new (yeah yeah I know it's a remaster, but it's also a Wii U game), and I think a fully open world game could scratch that itch, I think it's gonna sell surprisingly well. 1M in 12 days I don't know about, but I think it's definitely gonna sell over 2M in the long run and is likely gonna be used to showcase the technical improvements of Switch 2 for Switch 1 software.
 
Fisico said:
These two sentences don't match

If you expect Xenoblade 2 retail numbers you're ultra optimistic for Japan

And basically hoping for comfortably more than half a million only in the country (it's a high priced SKU which makes it very voucher friendly and bound to lean towards a high digital ratio, Xenoblade DE, a cheaper game, was >50% digital, Xenoblade 3 was >60% digital)

If at the same time you don't expect it to do "well" in the west then that means sales crumbling down to absurd level outside Japan

Xenoblade 3 JP share of WW shipment was around <30% (>520k of 1.9M WW shipment)
Xenoblade DE JP share of WW shipment is somewhere below 30% as well (>350k out of 1.9M WW shipment, but the JP shipment number is 2y older than WW)

Even if we go towards a lopsided 40% share for Japan (which seems super unlikely) Xeno X DE would need to sell something like <200k retail to not get to 1M WW shipment.
<200k is 60% of Xenoblade 2 retail number

Mind it will sell less than 200k retail in Japan, maybe below 150k as well but that should be enough to reach 1M WW regardless.

A scenario where it won't reach 1M eventually should be a mix of lower retail in Japan and west dissapointing sales but that would be realistically 35% for Japan out of WW shipment (it's huge), and retail numbers below 140k
That's not impossible but within the unlikely territory for me
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I thought Xenoblade 2 launch week in Japan, but Yeah..

I believe that X will do much less in the west that the Xenoblade games usually do
 
Damage2 said:
I thought Xenoblade 2 launch week in Japan, but Yeah..

I believe that X will do much less in the west that the Xenoblade games usually do
Click to expand...

The thing is, even if it sells half what Xeno DE and Xeno 3 did in the West (so close to 1.5M) it would still be comfortably ahead of 1M shipment WW.

There's selling less (-10 /-20 /-30%) and there's completely crumbling down (-60/70%), for a stable series like Xenoblade on NSW it would take some extraordinary negative circumstances for that to happen.
 
Fisico said:
The thing is, even if it sells half what Xeno DE and Xeno 3 did in the West (so close to 1.5M) it would still be comfortably ahead of 1M shipment WW.

There's selling less (-10 /-20 /-30%) and there's completely crumbling down (-60/70%), for a stable series like Xenoblade on NSW it would take some extraordinary negative circumstances for that to happen.
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I feel like it its less desired with the JRPG audience in west.

But my assumption can be wrong, you do bring good points
 
The only question i would have regarding Xenoblade X is that it has a short period of time to sell until Nintendo shift fully to 100 % Switch 2 marketing, that might make an impact on legs. But still it should sell well the first 2 weeks at least.
 
The question can be answered from a few positions:
  1. Is XBCX underestimated in the broader market context?
    Yes. Switch is a 150+ million platform that's still engaging to its playerbase despite an 8+ year run. Switch players still want quality games to play, and so far this year Nintendo has dropped the ball in servicing such a need. Somewhat understandable considering the successor is months away, but Nintendo fans have been left with a (second) Remastered DKC Returns and now a "Director's Cut" Remastered XenoBlade Chronicles X. The upside for the latter game is that it was woefully underappreciated being stuck on the Wii U, and now has a chance to reach a wider, appreciative audience. So yes, it has all the qualities of doing well.

  2. Is XBCX underestimated in the mind of a dedicated, internet savvy audience (such as ours)?
    No. In fact, the franchise itself is overestimated in its reach, prestige, and (in this case) sales ceiling. XenoBlade Chronicles on Wii was a bright spot for a Wii system that had lost all momentum (releasing in 2011 in the West). It was everything dedicated fans had wanted: a serious (on a console many considered "unserious" and "kiddy"), open world (when most JRPGs were still struggling with this concept, even on HD consoles), real time JRPG that made its mark immediately upon launch.

    Monolith Soft made a statement, and audiences paid attention. Due to NoA's treatment of the title and its distribution, it didn't see the sales success it clearly deserved (but I do love that reversable cover ^_^).

    Nintendo clearly course corrected, seeing fan response and critical praise. Not only was there a sequel, but XenoBlade Chronicles 2 was out year one and part of its holiday sales push. Quite the affirmation from Nintendo. And not only did XBC2 do well, but had good legs, especially for a JRPG. As of 2022, the game had sold 2.7 million copies.

    Thing is, XBC2 (2.7) XBCD (1.9) and XBC3 (1.9) have sold well. But they're certainly not paradigm shifting titles from a sales standpoint. They're... good. And only good. Especially on a super-successful system whose rising tide has lifted countless games with it.

    Here's Nintendo series on Switch who have seen a higher ceiling than the XenoBlade franchise:
    1. Mario Kart
    2. Animal Crossing
    3. Super Smash Bros.
    4. The Legend of Zelda (3D)
    5. Super Mario Bros. (3D)
    6. Pokémon
    7. Mario Party
    8. Super Mario Bros. (2D)
    9. Switch Sports
    10. Ring Fit Adventure (the true JRPG king this generation!)
    11. Luigi's Mansion
    12. Splatoon
    13. Kirby
    14. The Legend of Zelda (2D)
    15. Clubhouse Games
    16. Donkey Kong Country
    17. Mario Tennis
    18. Fire Emblem
    19. 1-2 Switch
    20. Pikmin
    21. Paper Mario
    22. Yoshi
    23. Metroid (2D)
    24. Arms
    25. XenoBlade Chronicles
  3. But on dedicated gaming and Nintendo message boards, you'd think XenoBlade was a top 10 (even top 5) franchise for the big N. Yes, it is a well received, critically acclaimed, and much beloved series developed out with the efficiency like no one else in gaming (That Monolith can put out two sequels, a remake, and a ground-up remaster in one generation in today's dev climate is amazing. All while supporting other studios). But the series is limited in its reach and impact on the wider market. Part of that is the decline of the JRPG as an entire genre (even XenoBlade, which was innovative in 2011, is not immune), but there's other elements that hold it back from being a franchise that truly pushes Nintendo's position forward.

    A certain XenoBlade lovin' nopon wont like me for saying this, but: XenoBlade is not an important franchise for engaging a wide audience. It has its fanbase. It has its place in Nintendo's portfolio. But it is a place in the shadows of much larger franchises that have much larger impacts. As of now, XBC has not hit that paradigm shift that other franchises saw with Switch (3D Zelda, Animal Crossing, 3D Mario, Pokémon, Kirby, Splatoon, Luigi's Mansion, etc.). It has its place, but not as a market-changer.
TLDR: It will do well, but remain in its B-Grade sales tier.
 
As long as it sells relatively on par with the other Xeno games I'll be satisfied. I don't think anyone is expecting a BOTW moment here.
 
AuroraMusisAmica said:
Fire Emblem
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Interestingly, Xenoblade as a series has been growing faster since its inception compared to Fire Emblem. Fire Emblem debuted in 1990 and got its first million-selling game in 2013 with Fire Emblem Awakening (not counting re-releases).

Nintendo is very happy with Xenoblade. This franchise fills an important niche and is growing.

aAH1Q3J.jpeg


When comparing Xenoblade's sales to those of JRPGs from other developers, the biggest difference lies in the fact that Nintendo offers fewer discounts, which makes Xenoblade's sales even more impressive.

For example, Tales of Arise, the biggest game in the Tales series, debuted in 2021 and, as of 2024, has sold 3 million copies across 5 platforms. It has seen many price drops and promotions since its release, with its price sometimes dropping to $9.99.

mNgJtIo.png


Tales of Arise price history, PS Store

Xenoblade 2 debuted in 2017 and had sold 2.7 million copies on 1 platform by 2022. It is still priced at $59.99 on the eShop, although its price sometimes drops to $39.99. However, as you can see below, its discount chart is VERY different overall.

9IyQyU4.png


Xenoblade 2 price history, US eShop

Another example is Yakuza: Like a Dragon, the biggest game in the Yakuza series. It debuted in 2020 and sold 1.8 million copies across 5 platforms by December 2023. Sega was very pleased with the results. Here's its discount chart... Again, it's very different from Xenoblade and other Nintendo games.

ak6AhF3.png


Like a Dragon price history, PS Store

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Xenoblade 3

hFGPTCX.png


Xenoblade: Definitive Edition

meH8uFI.png


Final Fantasy XVI

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Dragon Quest XI

etc...

Nintendo stands out from the rest when it comes to pricing, which makes the growth of its franchises like Xenoblade even more impressive. This is often overlooked in discussions about sales, and JRPG sales in particular.
 
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@SkyerIst yes, Xenoblade is a very solid JRPG series nowadays; the challenge will be to see if it can sustain its "2mil" range as a baseline going into the generation shift (with X in the very last tail of Switch commercial life, and entering the new hardware era)
 
SkyerIst said:
Interestingly, Xenoblade as a series has been growing faster since its inception compared to Fire Emblem. Fire Emblem debuted in 1990 and got its first million-selling game in 2013 with Fire Emblem Awakening (not counting re-releases).

Nintendo is very happy with Xenoblade. This franchise fills an important niche and is growing.

aAH1Q3J.jpeg
Click to expand...

Important to kept in mind that lots of Fire Emblem games never got releases outside Japan and that the context of each release is important.

If Xenoblade Chronicles started in 2001 not sure it would have take off in 2007.
 
SkyerIst said:
For example, Tales of Arise, the biggest game in the Tales series, debuted in 2021 and, as of 2024, has sold 3 million copies across 5 platforms. It has seen many price drops and promotions since its release, with its price sometimes dropping to $9.99.

mNgJtIo.png


Tales of Arise price history, PS Store
Click to expand...

For Tales of Arise the 10 bucks pricedrops began to happen after it reached 3M and when it was made available in Gamepass and as a free game on PS+, before that it "only" went as low as 20$/€.
Changes nothing to your analysis anyway, most publisher do pricedrops to keep catalogue sales high in volume, Nintendo keeps price high and still sells, FF is the worst of both world the price stays high and it doesn't sell.

SkyerIst said:
aAH1Q3J.jpeg
Click to expand...

This graph is infuriating to look at no matter how many times I encounter it, it's understandable why but it should still be banned into oblivion.
 
Fisico said:
Changes nothing to your analysis anyway, most publisher do pricedrops to keep catalogue sales high in volume, Nintendo keeps price high and still sells, FF is the worst of both world the price stays high and it doesn't sell.
Click to expand...
Well actually the worst of both worlds is if you drop the price and still don't sell!
 
2 millions are a lock. 1M in Spain + 1M rest of the work.

Jokes aside, I beleive the games market is paralised waiting for GTA and Switch 2. People buy, people play, but the atmosphere is not there. And that plays really hard against XCX.
 
Goinf by pur MC thread, it's going to debut lower than other games at retail in Japan (70k/80k)
Butnwith a +50% digital ratio, due to its high price/voucher discount
 
AruanaRiva said:
Probably not. It will need Switch XCX to do like....1.5m?
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Here's Astral Lion estimates using Nintendo's franchise figures.

Astral_lion02 said:
Sales on 3DS and Wii U:

Xenoblade: 1.41M

[WIU] Xenoblade Chronicles X: 0.8M
[3DS] Xenoblade Chronicles 3D: 0.6M

Xenoblade Serie on all platforms as of September 2024:

01 [NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 2: 2.8M
02 [NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3: 2.1M
03 [NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles DE: 2.0M
04 [WIU] Xenoblade Chronicles X: 0.8M
05 [WII] Xenoblade Chronicles: 0.7M
06 [3DS] Xenoblade Chronicles 3D: 0.6M
07 [NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 2 Torma: 0.3M

Total Serie sales: 9.3M

I am very confident on Xenoblade X > Xenoblade > Xenoblade 3D Worldwide.
Click to expand...
So around 800k for Xenoblade Chronicles X on WiiU.
 
Fisico said:
None of the 4 group bars are on the same scale.
It makes the 5.62M Kirby sold on Wii U* look smaller than the 4.99M Metroid sold on NSW.

Besides that the comparison isn't totally fair either as far as numbers of titles/platform is concerned.
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*Sold on Wii U and 3DS. By far most of it on 3DS.
It doesn't compare the different franchises to each other, so that doesn't matter.
2 platforms against one and the Switch still does way better?
The numbers of titles are mostly very comparable.
 
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