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Install Base predicts: How much will the Switch 2 cost at launch?

How much will the Switch 2 cost at launch? (US-price)

  • Total voters
    162
  • Poll closed .
Tokuiten

Tokuiten

Member
Infected with 'Xenoblade'. 御免なさい🙇‍♀️
I couldn't find any such existing poll, only threads asking for WHEN Switch 2 will launch, so let's do this. With most of us expecting Switch 2 (or whatever the successor to the Switch is called) to launch in 2024, it's a good point in time to ask this question: What will the nextgen-Switch cost?

For ease of vote, the question is about the standard-model of the Switch 2. In case of different versions launching simultaneously, we're asking the price of the "popular" model, similar to how Xbox Series X is the more popular Xbox despite the Series S being cheaper, or likewise PS5 with disc drive versus PS5 digital. If you expect multiple versions at launch, feel free to elaborate in a posting. Any discussion is welcome, anyway.

Also, we'll predict the US-price here. The Yen-price doesn't matter to most users here, and the Europe-prices will probably be all over the place again, just like how Switch 1 ranged from 299 to 349 back then in 2017. I'm not familiar with US-taxes, but again, let's keep it simple: In the way that the PS3 was announced as "599 Dollars", that's the price we're asking for in this prediction. No idea if those 599 Dollars back then included tax or not ;>

Note: I picked voting options so that we don't need to argue about whether the price was 299 or 300. That's basically the same, so I chose the larger number as the limit and went in 50 Dollar-steps from there. Just pick the option that fits your prediction best.

Otherwise, let's not make this needlessly complicated: What will the Switch 2 cost at launch? Simple question, simple answer. And eventually we'll find out who was wrong and right. Have fun, guys! Vote stays open for one month.
 
$300 to $350; OLED and other Switch models will be price-cut after its release. Full backwards compatibility.

Your poll is a little hard to vote for with my opinion, lol. I'd say the cut-off should be "less than 299" and then go from there.
 
I predict that one of the SKUs will cost 449 USD at launch. Maybe an OLED model with more internal storage, pretty mich like the Switch OLED.
 
I am still conflicted, I do not see a $450+ Nintendo console selling well. I would love it to be $400, but I'm going to go $450.
 
Vena said:
$300 to $350; OLED and other Switch models will be price-cut after its release. Full backwards compatibility.

Your poll is a little hard to vote for with my opinion, lol. I'd say the cut-off should be "less than 299" and then go from there.
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I made the vote specifically so that everyone really gets to predict ONE price, not several, hence why I made it so you cannot have 300 and 350 both :D

Vote for the one price you feel is the likeliest, then you can still add in your posting what price range you find likely. But for the vote's purposes, I wanted it to be one price.

Edit: For example, I voted 351 to 400, because I think 399 is the likeliest.
 
Tokuiten said:
I made the vote specifically so that everyone really gets to predict ONE price, not several, hence why I made it so you cannot have 300 and 350 both :D

Vote for the one price you feel is the likeliest, then you can still add in your posting what price range you find likely. But for the vote's purposes, I wanted it to be one price.

Edit: For example, I voted 351 to 400, because I think 399 is the likeliest.
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I want have my cake and eat it too. That said if we're also expecting an OLED with launch I'll actually echo @Welfare.
 
$400, I don't see why they'd go lower and I also don't think they'll cut the prices of any Switch models.
 
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ILikeFeet said:
  • $400
  • OLED screen
  • 256GB UFS storage
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If you think it's gonna be 400, you voted for the wrong option, though (currently you vote for 401-450). But you can still change it, so go for it.
 
I voted for 301-350 because I think an ideal price point would be $349.99, but in reality it probably makes more sense for them to go with $399.99 because if it's successful then that's a reasonable enough price to keep for a long time and if it struggles then they can cut it to $349.99. I'll stick with my vote, but I'm probably wrong.

Anything over that and IMO we're out of Nintendo console territory. I don't see them breaking that $400 psychological barrier. They shouldn't grow a big head again just because the Switch was a massive success.
 
I think it will be $400 at launch. I'm hopeful that the current Switch 1 models receive price drops before then. Would make sense in my opinion for Switch OLED to be $300 when a $400 Switch 2 launches (and a price drop would make the most sense to occur this upcoming holiday).
 
I know things don't work like that but just for the sake of it, I checked what $299.99 in 2017 money was today ($373.41), as well as $349.99 in 2021 money ($394.08). I'd be satisfied with a price point that roughly matches that value. If they cross the $400 barrier, personally I'm out until there's a sale or a bundle.
 
I like the idea of there being two SKU’s.

Option 1:
$400 for a Nintendo Switch 2, New Dock, and New Joy-Cons

Option 2:
$300 for a Nintendo Switch 2 and New Joy-Cons

(New Docks are available for purchase, separately, for $100. Retailers are able to sell them individually or bundled with games/accessories.)

Nintendo Switch 2 consoles can work with original Nintendo Switch Docks, but will not be able to output into 4K (a likely feature of NS2 Docks) or take advantage of other NS2 Dock features should there be any. (Technically the Docks that came with the OLED Model have the ability to output 4K, so if you own one, you’re a little closer to a modern NS2 Dock.)

I like this route a lot, because it keeps going next-gen, affordable, but with the opportunity to enter TV mode later, should you want. It also gives us a nicely priced, likely powerful, full entry into Nintendo’s next generation.
 
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I don't like the idea of two SKUs at launch. It can add to confusion and in the end just splits the number of people who were gonna get it more than it adds users. It's basically gonna sell out at launch regardless. Make it one SKU at launch and save another one for when you need a sales bump.
 
$399.99 7 inch screen/128gb/lcd screen

The only question for me is whether the screen will be 720p or 1080p. If the screen was 1080p then it would be easy to tell the average consumer that the Switch 2 is better at first glance. But it will be probably 720p and the marketing will be about it potentially reaching 4k when docked, with dlss.
 
Since the price of the Switch has been static at 299.99 USD I can only assume it'll cost at least 100 dollars more than that.
 
Going with 351-400 but hopefully it's not too much. OLED being most popular shows people are willing to pay for a desirable product.

If the goal is still multiple switches per household, then can't go too high as parents wouldn't be able to justify more than one.
 
351 to 400.

The launch of the 3DS showed Nintendo that even the successor to a cultural phenomenon cannot be "wrongly priced".
 
350-400 i feel. But if we are lucky hopefully 350 which will make me really happy.
 
Whoa, I'm surprised that you all think it'll be so expensive!

I'm probably wrong, but I'm confident they'll stick to a $299, because anything higher will make it less accessible and Nintendo consoles have always been "affordable". 350 at the VERY highest!

A more expensive version will come later.
 
399.99 USD, no way it cost the same as the OLED.

If Nintendo thinks their best games are worth 69.99 they sure enough believe their consoles are worth the price of cheapest ps5. When the Switch came out the PS4 was 299.99, cost have gone up since then.
 
Remember_spinal said:
399.99 USD, no way it cost the same as the OLED.

If Nintendo thinks their best games are worth 69.99 they sure enough believe their consoles are worth the price of cheapest ps5. When the Switch came out the PS4 was 299.99, cost have gone up since then.
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Some costs might have, some have not. And in terms of electronics parts, it's never been a better time to get parts contracts.

For example, LPDDR5 RAM prices are in the toilet right now due to over-supply and, even when accouting for inflation, a pair of 6-8GB LPDDR5 SO-DIMMs will very likely be cheaper than the RAM Nintendo purchased in 2016/2017 for Switch. RAM is traditionally one of the 4 most expensive parts of any portable electronic device (SoC, RAM, display and battery), so falling prices on the RAM most people are dead-certain Nintendo will use in their next hardware can only mean good things for them.

In addition to RAM being over-supplied, NAND is in an even worse pickle that way (having been over-supplied since before COVID) and it's a buyer's market for getting an amazing contract rate on higher capacities of eUFS storage.

Batteries on the same chemical technology increase capacity by around 5% per year compounded YoY at the same form factor without price hikes, so by the time this new hardware enters full production, a battery of the same size and very similar cost as in 2017 (the 4310mAh battery in Switch) should be able to achieve anywhere from ~1500-1750mAh increase in capacity. So, if they don't want/need that much extra capacity, they can simply use a smaller battery and pay less or pay close to the same price for a bit of extra capacity.

As for the display... I know I wouldn't mind them using the same OLED panel they're already using, it's a great panel. And a pre-established economy of scale means that, at worst, it wouldn't be far beyond what they paid for the LCD panel they started with on Switch. More, sure, but not obscenely so.

2 out of 4 of the most expensive parts of a new hybrid likely being cheaper than what Nintendo would have paid for lesser parts in 2016/2017 and 1 likely being equal or modestly more expensive (and getting practically a steal on what is likely the 5th most expensive part) gives credence to the notion that, cost-wise, Nintendo's doing better than they have any right to in terms of component costs now compared to 2017. The SoC is the only wild card there, as we don't know enough about it to have any notion on cost for it, but when every other big-ticket part has a path to lower costs, I think they're doing alright.
opaidiota said:
351 to 400.

The launch of the 3DS showed Nintendo that even the successor to a cultural phenomenon cannot be "wrongly priced".
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Did you mean "can" instead of "cannot"? Cuz a massive price slash 6 months into the 3DS' life certainly tells me that such a device can be priced wrong. As does the PS3 launch debacle.
 
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It depends…I don’t even know what are the price differences are between 8GB and 12GB of RAM. Or the difference between LCD and OLED in terms of price.

All I know that Nintendo previously made the OG Switch so it didn’t sell at a loss from the start. Will they use the same approach for the successor? People say they should go all out since they got billions from the Switch. I’m not sure if that works that way. They definitely don’t want to go back to the Wii U days where they were bleeding money enough that Iwata had to cut his own salary to keep the majority, if not all, of the staff in Nintendo. And they certainly don’t want to be where the PS3 was because they will not only bleed money for expensive tech for a hybrid, but will not get the benefit of the doubt that the PS3 got over time during its respective lifespan.
 
Kai_Mao2345 said:
It depends…I don’t even know what are the price differences are between 8GB and 12GB of RAM. Or the difference between LCD and OLED in terms of price.

All I know that Nintendo previously made the OG Switch so it didn’t sell at a loss from the start. Will they use the same approach for the successor? People say they should go all out since they got billions from the Switch. I’m not sure if that works that way. They definitely don’t want to go back to the Wii U days where they were bleeding money enough that Iwata had to cut his own salary to keep the majority, if not all, of the staff in Nintendo. And they certainly don’t want to be where the PS3 was because they will not only bleed money for expensive tech for a hybrid, but will not get the benefit of the doubt that the PS3 got over time during its respective lifespan.
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I expect another round of hardware priced at close to break-even with their expected MSRP at launch and for those costs to decline over time, as what happened with Switch. Nintendo can say it was profitable from launch, but that just means they didn’t lose money selling them and most cost breakdowns in 2017 pointed in a similar direction, with a $50 profit per unit being the most aggressive (and likely wrong) figure offered at the time. And then between economies of scale on parts produced and specifically a die shrink due to process node changes on the Tegra X1 to facilitate the Lite being applied across the whole product line, profit per unit took a sharp increase.

I fully expect the same playbook to be followed, with a $300-400 MSRP mostly depending on final costs more than outright profiteering (and with Switch hardware pricing adjusted to accommodate the MSRP if necessary), but priced in such a way that they get as close to break-even as is comfortable.
 
I really don't see it going over 400, they want this to be approachable to kids and families. I wonder if Switch 1 will get a price cut though immediately or later.
 
Concurseiro do Futuro said:
If Nintendo wants to sell alot, they should price it U$299,90 and fase out the Switch 1.

Or they could price it U$399,90 and keep Switch and Switch on market.
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300 USD in 2023 is worth a lot less than 300 USD in 2017. Sure they'd sell a lot of hardware and fast, but they should want a long, reliable gen like the Switch.

In previous gens, they'd have priced the Switch OLED at the same price as the OG and lowered the price of the OG at the same time, but they didn't, they priced it higher and have never dropped the price of the other models. Sony and Microsoft have RAISED prices. Nintendo surely wants none of that negative publicity, they'll want to go for a price that is not too high but not too low and with enough breathing room that they could realistically afford to drop it by $50 at some point in case of floppage. That's why the lowest I can see is $350 as they know people are willing to buy a Nintendo Switch system at that price point thanks to the OLED. Going lower would be an extremely aggressive move and would leave them with zero breathing room.
 
I don't vibe with these portable only, different screens SKU. only thing there should be are different colours.

don't want the best version of the system selling out and people are left with other scraps SKU that they don't want.
 
Honestly, 299 Dollars in 2024 would feel ridiculously cheap, like, babytoy-like cheap. I'd rather bet on 499 than 299.
 
Hasn't Nintendo come out in the past arguing against multiple different SKUs at launch, in order to avoid confusion and shipping headaches? I remember that from ages ago but can't find a link. The one time they tried it was the Wii U and we all know how that turned out.

Obviously Sony and MS have been doing it, but their base systems were way more expensive than you'd expect a Switch 2 with the rumored specs to be in 2024.
 
Years ago I would say $299, but after costs increases and inflation I will go with $349-399.
I can't imagine Nintendo going beyond that, low prices are key in their strategy.
 
it depends really on the internals but if it has dlss, decent ram and storage it cant be cheaper than $400 and even then it might sell at a slight loss or just break even
 
$399.99

Only one model, two SKU (color variants).

They'll progressively phase out all Switch 1 models except the Lite (or a new Lite model), which they'll keep in production for several years until S2 is ready for it's own Lite variant.
 
Doubting between $349 and $399. $399 would make sense since all cost are way higher but $349 would so much easier to sell to all parents who wanna buy next console for their kids.

Im gonna say $349 for now
 
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