• Welcome to Install Base!
    Join the Community and gain access to Prediction Leagues, Polls, specific answers and exclusive content now!

  • Industry Q&A featuring Mat Piscatella

    Q&A is now over. Check out a legendary 5-hour answering marathon here!

Industry Q&A with Mat Piscatella : Ask your questions before November 26th! [CLOSED]

Status
Not open for further replies.
Lelouch0612

Lelouch0612

Staff
Archivist Genius Staff
Hello everyone !


After a succesful first Q&A with Daniel Ahmad, I am glad to announce that Mat Piscatella, industry expert on the US market, will answer your questions on Wednesday, November 27th.


Mat-Piscatella.jpg


In the meantime, it is the occasion to submit your questions in this thread, until November 26th 23:59 CEST.

Each member is allowed 2 questions, with at least one related specifically to the US market which is Mat's area of expertise, and the topics he'll be able to speak more of. Given the timing, the Holiday shopping season will be a key theme to explore.

You can also touch on global industry trends, or ask about a platform's holder strategy even if those won't be the main focus here.

Understandably, he probably won't be able to answer to everything but there might be enough common themes to satisfy everyone!
 
Greetings, Mat!

Longtime follower!

My question for you is, what type of challenge or challenges do you think the Switch successor may tackle?

Thank you for all you do!
 
Hi Mat!

My question is; Nintendo has in the past often struggled when they have transitioned to new hardware. Do you think Nintendo is well positioned now in the US market to have a strong launch of their successor hardware this time around?
 
Hello Mat!

First of all thank you and Circana for sharing the games ranking for the US market and some tidbits with us fans that just want to know how much games sell and aren't acting investors.

Recently tariffs have been the talking point of the internet following the US elections, do you think a possible increase in prices for consoles could push hardware manufacturers to invest more to expand their install base in other territories rather than leading to US-based manufacturing? We recently learned that Nintendo's earnings have grown significantly in the so called "Other Countries" (aka not US, not Europe, not Japan) this generation so that's definitely a portion of the market they'll be paying close attention to in the upcoming console cycle in my opinion.
 
Last edited:
This is huge, congrats IB!

1) Which have been the most interesting gen for a US tracker/analyst ever, in terms of sales, competition, results, unexpected trends and so on..?

2) Which have been the most interesting (not necessarily succesfull) "accessory" (no game or console) sales curve/trend ever and in this generation?
 
Last edited:
Hello, Mat. Love your work.

What are your opinions on Gen Z and Alpha moving away from desktop consoles - Xbox and PlayStation - and towards PC gaming in the United States? Is it happening? What does the data we have tell us? If it is happening, how big of a phenomenon is it and how worried should Sony and Microsoft be long-term?
 
Thanks for participating here Mat!

1) GTA6 will I think obviously be the biggest gaming launch ever, what effects do you think this will have on the market as a whole? Could it pull gamers away from their current preferred live service games?

2) Is the higher price of new consoles a barrier to increased adoption as this gen continues? With the switch likely going its entire life without a price cut and the PS5 not seeing deep sales like the PS4 is this expected to reduce adoption as the generation continues?
 
Hello:

1) Do you see Switch reaching 160 millions units sold in 2025?
2) Do you think Microsoft strategy for XboX family sistems is working? Is possible for them to leave the dedicated hardware market?
 
Hi Mat! Nice to see you interface directly with the sales community! I have one question I always wanted to ask.

Back in ye olden days (circa late 2000s), The NPD Group actually used to provide NeoGAF with hardware numbers along with numbers for the Top 10 best-selling games by Units. For example:
https://www.neogaf.com/threads/npd-sales-numbers-for-november-2008.345152/

I understand why Circana clients may not want to have exact software numbers of their games posted without their permission. But has there been any thought at Circana about bringing back exact hardware numbers in your monthly PR reports like NPD did once upon a time?

You already reveal quite a bit of insight into monthly hardware sales performances. Like for this past October release, you shared all this info:

"Video game hardware spending dropped 23% in October when compared to a year ago. Switch dollar sales fell 38% year-on-year during October, while PS5 declined by 20% and Xbox Series showed an 18% decrease. PlayStation 5 was once again the best-selling hardware platform in both unit and dollar sales for the month, with Xbox Series ranking 2nd across both measures. 604k units of new video game hardware sold in October 2024 across Arcade, Nintendo Switch, PlayStation 4, PlayStation 5, Plug-N-Play, and Xbox Series platforms. This is down from the 759k units sold a year ago. Xbox is still behind Switch in units for the YTD rankings, but the gap is under 1% at this point. Digital 35% of PS5 units in Oct, S 42% of XBS Oct units."
Click to expand...

So we already have quite a good idea about how each console performed. Why not go whole hog at this point and just reveal the monthly PS5 / Switch / Xbox Series hardware numbers outright? I think it would be a good PR boost and wouldn't affect your client base. Hardware numbers are really quite harmless to share. And of course us enthusiasts would love it! 😊
 
Last edited:
Hello Mat,

1) What do think was the most surprising game launch in the US market in the last few years and why?

2)Who do you think is the biggest missing publisher from the digital leader panel, outside of Nintendo and Take-Two, that would make the monthly charts more accurately reflect the full game landscape?
 
1) Hypothetically, you're now in the seat of Nintendo president Shuntaro Furukawa. When will you announce Switch 2? When will you release it? And what game is its launch killer app?

(Mat answers the hypothetical question.

Internet: NPD industry expert Mat Piscatella claims Switch 2 release date!)

2) What's your favorite Pokemon?
 
Last edited:
Hello Mat! Sorry for any typos and grammar errors but here are my questions:

1 - If you could revive and change the fate and the strategy behind a "failed" platform to become a success, which one would you choose and what would you do?

2- How do you see the change from the exclusive 3rd party releases and late ports to simultaneous multiplatform releases? In the previous gens, exclusive 3rd party releases used to do fine and boost the sales of some major platforms, but now it seems that when a game is exclusive , most will underperform without a PC or a Nintendo release.
 
1) With the looming successor to the Nintendo switch, are external partners/publishers looking forward/excited to be working with the platform?

2) how would you compare market trends pre-COVID and post-COVID in Habits that encompass platform preferences, path of entry to game purchases(Physical/Digital), subscriptions, types of games being purchased and how you envision this next decade (ending 2032?) to shift, if any, from the pre vs post covid in terms of these aforementioned trends that major publishers and platform holders need to take into account that is best not ignored?

can you sing
 
1.) With how younger generation prefer non-cutting edge graphics game, such as Minecraft, Roblox, Fortnite, etc, do you foresee that current type of AAA games are hitting ceiling in terms of unit sales? With preference of GAAS mobile game by younger generation, has the big publisher/platform holder successfully manage to convert them to be the audience for premium console games? Has there been any changes in focus of video game development by major publisher/developer?

2.) In terms of unit sales, has the console video game market in the US been expanding in the last 2-3 years? If yes, what are the main drivers of the growth? If not, which segment/genre has been contributing the biggest decline?
 
Hello, Matt. Thank you for taking the time to answer our questions.

1) When I look at the Circana charts, the thing that jumps out at me is the underperformance of Xbox hardware. The US is traditionally Xbox's best market, but it is selling worse than Playstation and is very close to the Switch, a much older console. How do you feel about the long-term viability of Xbox hardware? Do you think that in the future, Microsoft will transition away from hardware entirely and become a publisher focused on subscription services?
 
Last edited:
Hi Mat, thank you for taking the time to answer our questions.

1) I'd like to know why Circana's MAU engagement charts don't cover Switch given it's sizable position in the marketplace as a leading platform?

2) Along the same lines, I'm curious why the PC MAU engagement chart is limited to Steam when there are so many millions of players outside that ecosystem (Fortnite, Roblox, Minecraft, WOW, LOL, Valorant, Overwatch, etc, etc)?
 
Last edited:
Hello Mat,

EA Sports College Football 25 seems poised to become the best selling sports title in the US next month. The NCAA series that originally ended in 2013 always did well, but never better than Madden. Do you think EA College Football will maintain its stronger momentum and outperform the Madden series in future years? Also, are there any other interesting data points relating to EACF25 that you would be interested in sharing?
 
Hi Mat, glad to have you back for a while.

Q1) PS5 as the successor to market leader PS4 is over- and underperforming at the same time when it comes to (at least my) expectations. It's doing well in some random months and often compared to the competition in a tough overall market situation. But at the same time PS5 has massive struggles to reach PS4 peaks and shift huge quantities with price promotions and during the expected high volume months. Is that unpredictability, just demand leveling out over the year, or a shift in consumer and/or seller behavior? Some insight form someone with way more detailed data would be helpful here. I don't see this patterns with Xbox and Nintendo, who have more traditional, linear and predictable ones.

Q2) Price promotions. Nintendo started with not really doing them anymore, yet demand skyrocketed under covid. PS4 in the last trimester of it's lifetime followed and this year Xbox is doing no significant deals. Is it just not worth it anymore? Will people eventually just buy the console at normal price if they can't get a deal. In previous gens, those holiday promotions were huge demand drivers. Is historic knowledge of basic economic principles dead? I don't even want to talk about GPU prices. Some lower income households will surely be priced out with that. Especially if Series S is not desiderable enough and Switch 2 not launching immediately with a cheaper handheld only device.
The US is still seeing a big population growth for a "western country", yet the market is not expanding when it comes to userbase. Only in nominal $ sales. Is that really all the platform holder want to rely on in an inflationary world? Seems quite risky to me long term.
 
Hello Mat,

1) The transmedia strategy is on a very rapid rise and seems poised to be one of the next big things in the industry. Data and specific comparisons may not exist, but what do you feel was the most impactful transmedia effort in the last few years in the USA video game industry (be it in terms of engagement, surge of interest, sales..) ? Between Fallout, Super Mario, The Witcher, The Last of Us, Cyberpunk 2077, Sonic and League of Legends.

2) What would be your dream video game adaptation ?
 
Thanks for the opportunity Mat and Install Base!

1. Can you comment on how the Sonic franchise and historically performed across all platforms since Sega went 3rd-party? Sonic has historically sold most on Nintendo systems, is this still the case today with Switch versions vs. other platforms? Thanks!

2. I'll ask you this as well; any comments on Sony and Microsoft's current and future strategy on releasing games for Switch (and ahem certain future Nintendo hardware 👀), as we've already had both Ori titles, Grounded, and Pentiment from MS, with Sony now joining the fray with LEGO Horizon Adventures and now via licensing Freedom Wars Remastered to Bandai Namco. Are you privy to any further plans? MS have been quiet on this front with only PS5 getting any focus. Obviously I'm not talking about the expected Minecrafts and MLB The Show releases.

Thanks! :D
 
Last edited:
Howdy Mat, thank you for everything you do for the community with sharing insights and data with the public.

1) What is a market analysis you would like to do or share, but haven’t been able to do due to lack of data/permission/time/etc? Doesn’t necessarily have to be US specific.

2) Have you tried cloud gaming? If so, which services? What are your thoughts on it in its current state and potential for growth in the US market?

Thanks
 
Hello Mat, welcome to Install Base!

1. With both Microsoft and Sony planning handhelds and the success of devices like the Steam Deck and the Portal, do you think there is an untapped market for handhelds other than Nintendo, or is Nintendo going to be the dominant player in that field for the time being?
 
1. Circana (previously NPD) has a lot of data from retailer partners and digital platforms. The company has also been willing to provide this data through different means. Before, it was just Top 10's or 20's posted to the NPD website. Then it became NPD giving websites like IGN different charts depending on the platform. Then the whole NeoGAF agreement where console sales and software were revealed every month. So on and so on.

What I'm curious about is to what degree of control Circana has on its current data sets. If the company were willing, could it still give out hardware numbers like "PS5 sold 300K this month, Switch 150K" and it chooses not to, or was there some agreement with console vendors that they'd rather that data not be given out? The digital panel of publishers, from what I understand, works in this way where digital data can't be published without approval from the publisher.

Always interested in what data Circana (or you) choose to reveal every month. I'm a fan of the hardware data that gets published monthly now in the revenue changes YOY, and the newer stat of how many total consoles were sold this month.

2. Following up on the previous question, what other rankings could Circana release every month? We get top 20 for the month and YTD, top 10 for each platform, and a top 10 for active players. We're always told what the #1 accessory is, but NPD used to release a top 10 accessories ranking in the early to mid 2000's. Could an accessories top 10 be produced? As well, do you think the platform specific rankings should stick to a top 10, or be expanded to a top 20 like the main ranking? What gets missed in the Xbox and PlayStation rankings that the Nintendo ranking benefits from is more games that probably wouldn't show up in the main combined platforms list have additional context to where they rank. Coming up on the holiday season and discounts, I would think the Xbox 11-20 would look more unique to its platform than the PlayStation 11-20, which would be different to the combined platforms 11-20.

Thanks for taking the time to answer these questions!
 
Hello Mat.

1) Relative other major regions like Europe and Asia, it seems that in the US PlayStation 5 is finding the biggest growth and Nintendo Switch is experiencing its biggest decline. What do you think are the factors behind this?
2) Nintendo currently does not share digital sale figures to Circana (or any other sale tracker worldwide). While Nintendo is notoriously hard to predict, do you personally expect this stance to change in the near to medium future as digital approaches the 50% barrier?
 
Hi Mat, thank you also from me. I have only one question.

1)Could you update how Xbox Series and PS5 are doing saleswise in the US compared to one another and to their predecessors?
 
Hello Mat, happy you answer our questions

1)I would like to know the market share of console sales in relation to retail chain and online stores? I think Walmart and GameStop are #1 and #2 but it would be nice to have confirmation with percentages (for Best Buy, Target and Amazon too if possible)

2)And is this share the same for physical video game sales?
 
Last edited:
Hello Mat, thanks for answering these questions:

1) Did you find the explosion of the Wii in its early years or the extended longevity of the Switch in the US the more surprising?

2) Which Nintendo first party IP in your opinion pushed the Switch to have the most success in the US?
 
Hello Mat and thanks again for doing this 😊

  • What are your sales expectations on the Black Friday/Cyber Monday deals? (Hardware and software)

  • In terms of hardware launch nowadays, which strategy optimizes adoption? (Launch month? Earlier launch with 1M units first month or delayed launch to build more stock)
 
Thanks a ton Mat! And thanks @Lelouch0612 for again helping to organise these Q&As, it's a real privilege to have them.
Anyway:
1) With the PS5, I think it's fair to say that although sales are still great, they're not significantly better than that of the PS4 - the PS4 still gets a good amount of support and has an active player base too. And we've started to see people slowly grow less infatuated with the idea of additional power, as was seen with the reaction to the PS5 Pro. So my question is: do you think Sony is going to have trouble maintaining their typical sales momentum going into the next generation, and what could they do to offset any potential problems (assuming they aren't going to make many drastic changes to the hardware of their next console and that it will be a fairly straightforward successor)?
2) If you could sit down and have a conversation with any person who has worked in the video game industry, living or dead, who would you most want to talk with? And what would you want to ask?
 
1) Sony finally confirmed that the PS2 sold over 160 million. Switch is selling sensational for an old console in Japan, but it needs the EU and US to get that record. Do you think it can do it?

2) We know that MLB, Madden, and FC (FIFA) are doing great, and the reboot of College Football is seeing great success, but what about NHL, NBA, and UFC? I get the feeling their trajectory has been disappointing in the last 5-6 years or so, is that correct? and why would they lock NHL and UFC on console? what's the benefit of that?
 
Hello, Mat! Thanks for doing this :)

1) Do you think there is an upper limit to games and consoles pricing to the point where sales (units or revenue) drop or get stagnant? I feel the next couple of years are going to be rough for the gaming community (well, for everybody actually) and lots of people will be locked out of gaming because of costs.

2) I know that your area of work is focused in the US market, but is there any data or insight you could share about the Mexican market? Like size comparison of userbase or revenue. Anything is good. There is not a lot of info publicly available to consult about my country.
 
Aquamarine said:
Hi Mat! Nice to see you interface directly with the sales community! I have one question I always wanted to ask.

Back in ye olden days (circa late 2000s), The NPD Group actually used to provide NeoGAF with hardware numbers along with numbers for the Top 10 best-selling games by Units. For example:
https://www.neogaf.com/threads/npd-sales-numbers-for-november-2008.345152/

I understand why Circana clients may not want to have exact software numbers of their games posted without their permission. But has there been any thought at Circana about bringing back exact hardware numbers in your monthly PR reports like NPD did once upon a time?

You already reveal quite a bit of insight into monthly hardware sales performances. Like for this past October release, you shared all this info:



So we already have quite a good idea about how each console performed. Why not go whole hog at this point and just reveal the monthly PS5 / Switch / Xbox Series hardware numbers outright? I think it would be a good PR boost and wouldn't affect your client base. Hardware numbers are really quite harmless to share. And of course us enthusiasts would love it! 😊
Click to expand...
Welfare said:
1. Circana (previously NPD) has a lot of data from retailer partners and digital platforms. The company has also been willing to provide this data through different means. Before, it was just Top 10's or 20's posted to the NPD website. Then it became NPD giving websites like IGN different charts depending on the platform. Then the whole NeoGAF agreement where console sales and software were revealed every month. So on and so on.

What I'm curious about is to what degree of control Circana has on its current data sets. If the company were willing, could it still give out hardware numbers like "PS5 sold 300K this month, Switch 150K" and it chooses not to, or was there some agreement with console vendors that they'd rather that data not be given out? The digital panel of publishers, from what I understand, works in this way where digital data can't be published without approval from the publisher.

Always interested in what data Circana (or you) choose to reveal every month. I'm a fan of the hardware data that gets published monthly now in the revenue changes YOY, and the newer stat of how many total consoles were sold this month.

2. Following up on the previous question, what other rankings could Circana release every month? We get top 20 for the month and YTD, top 10 for each platform, and a top 10 for active players. We're always told what the #1 accessory is, but NPD used to release a top 10 accessories ranking in the early to mid 2000's. Could an accessories top 10 be produced? As well, do you think the platform specific rankings should stick to a top 10, or be expanded to a top 20 like the main ranking? What gets missed in the Xbox and PlayStation rankings that the Nintendo ranking benefits from is more games that probably wouldn't show up in the main combined platforms list have additional context to where they rank. Coming up on the holiday season and discounts, I would think the Xbox 11-20 would look more unique to its platform than the PlayStation 11-20, which would be different to the combined platforms 11-20.

Thanks for taking the time to answer these questions!
Click to expand...
Just to saïd it, I am very interesting on what Mat can reply for theses questions in particular.

For what question I have:

1) 20 years ago Nintendo DS launched in North America what do you remember of that system ?
Do you believe in the success of this console in 2004 back then against the aggressive PSP ?
 
Hello Mat!
First of all, thank you for your availability for this Q&A :D
And now, time for my questions:

1) Circana has long ago shifted from reporting and rankings based on unit sales to ones that are revenue-based instead; now, I understand the reasoning behind the change since we live in a world where, thanks to digital storefronts, games can witness such massive timed discounts to greatily alter their sales by copies sold / downloaded and in the process "distort" the market picture (to give an example of games from a specific series that saw massive sales boost because of the combination of low prices and a successful tv series adaptation: think about Fallout), but is there any chance that in the future we could get the return of public releases of units-based rankings alongside the dollar ones? This question comes from the fact that I think charts based on revenue aren't completely safe from the "distortion of the market picture" phenomenon, even if quite differently from unit-based rankings: more precisely, I'm referring to the fact that, by following such a criteria, not only games with higher price points and especially premium-priced special editions can be "overrepresented" in the charts compared to the units they actuall sell to their audience, but also games retailing at lower prices (I'm referring to titles in the $40-to-60 range, not to those that go through heavy discounts) are consequently underrepresented. Long story short, I think that a better representation of the state of the market and where it's going would see both revenue and units taken into account, and I would love to see Circana showing a little more openess on the units side of the story as well.

2) While obviously you can't go much into detail, even when accounting for the greater digital discounting activity, looking at the ecosystems-specific monthly rankings, what kind of changes (if any) have you seen in terms of game sales by units in the Top 10s across the last five years during non-Holiday months, but also in terms of the amount of sales necessary to get into the Top 10s?
 
First off, kudos to Circana and ESA Canada for approaching 2 full years of providing sales data on the Canadian software market. It’s been greatly appreciated. But this foreshadows the particular focus of my questions and since Circana collects the data, I’m hoping and assuming you’re able to answer on that basis (if not, so be it).

1) What are the most appreciable differences you can recall between the US and Canadian markets? I’m thinking things like physical/digital splits, consumers’ platform preferences (including PC), genre or publisher over-performances, market size per capita… whatever is easy info to recall, wouldn’t ask for a deep dive (though I wouldn’t turn my nose up at a deeper look, either) For example, the ESA Canada charts give the appearance of Nintendo software performing stronger in Canada comparatively (relative to the sizes of each market of course), but that could just be a mirage we’re witnessing, better to get a confirmation what I and others interpret from the limited data we have is real.

2) Some data that’s managed to shake out over the years suggests that attach rates for software in Canada are low and recently wrote how I believe that the Canadian market is a growth opportunity if publishers considered it as such and didn’t rely on treating the country as the 51st state. In your professional opinion, would you consider Canada a console/PC market with a lot more room to grow, or has that part of the market matured as far as it can and will only mature/shrink in line with the industry as a whole?
 
Last edited:
BTB123 said:
That didn't actually happen.
Click to expand...
J

Milestone  Thread 'Sony shares new sales figures for PlayStation consoles, confirming PS2 sold over 160M'

www.playstation.com

2000 PlayStation 2 - PSP PlayStation Portable | PlayStation History timeline

The 30 years of PlayStation timeline continues with the launch of PlayStation 2, and later with PSP PlayStation Portable.
www.playstation.com www.playstation.com

PlayStation - over 102m units
PlayStation 2 - over 160m units
PlayStation 3 - over 87m units
PlayStation 4 - over 117m units

PlayStation Portable - over 80m units
  • Thanks!
 
Welfare said:
J

Milestone  Thread 'Sony shares new sales figures for PlayStation consoles, confirming PS2 sold over 160M'

www.playstation.com

2000 PlayStation 2 - PSP PlayStation Portable | PlayStation History timeline

The 30 years of PlayStation timeline continues with the launch of PlayStation 2, and later with PSP PlayStation Portable.
www.playstation.com www.playstation.com

PlayStation - over 102m units
PlayStation 2 - over 160m units
PlayStation 3 - over 87m units
PlayStation 4 - over 117m units

PlayStation Portable - over 80m units
  • Thanks!
Click to expand...
Oh, that happened just now? I was thinking of this Jim Ryan comment in an interview.
 
Hi Matt.

1 - Theres a lot of discussion about Final Fantasy going multiplataform being the saving moment for the series, with all the data that you have, do you feel that theres an audiences or good sales for these games outside of the Playstation plataform?

2 - The JRPG genre have been growing a lot in the west with the recent sucesses of games like Nier Automata and Persona 5, what are you seeing with the data that you have and how do you feel if theres a growing market in the genre?( can you post a top 10 JRPG in revenue if its possible? no Pokemon included because it would be just Pokémon xD)
 
Last edited:
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top Bottom