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How much will the Mario vs. Donkey Kong remake sell?

How much will the Mario vs. Donkey Kong remake sell?

  • <1m

    Votes: 16 16.0%

  • 1-1.5m

    Votes: 33 33.0%

  • 1.5-2m

    Votes: 22 22.0%

  • 2-2.5m

    Votes: 15 15.0%

  • 2.5-3m

    Votes: 9 9.0%

  • 3-3.5m

    Votes: 2 2.0%

  • 3.5-4m

    Votes: 2 2.0%

  • 4-4.5m

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • 4.5-5m

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • 5m+

    Votes: 1 1.0%
  • Total voters
    100
AK World

AK World

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MvsDK_NS_Key_Artwork.png
The Mario vs. Donkey Kong remake is releasing in just under 3 weeks.

With the marketing starting to kick in, how much will this remake actually sell? Does it have a chance to become a modest hit and significantly outsell the original, or will it sell around the same ballpark (or less)?

The original Mario vs. DK was released on the GBA in 2004 and sold 1.37m copies for reference.
 
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I'm voted 2.5-3m. The games puzzle nature will hinder it some I guess, but with Mario getting a boost I think that is a good projection.
 
Marketing has been non-existent. I believe it will pass a million, but not by much. Nintendo isn't really marketing their stuff. I really expected more for this and Peach.
 
Probably comparable to Prime Remastered, so 1.5 million is my guess.

For reference the original sold 1.37m.
 
This release has near zero buzz from Nintendo fans. I think it's entirely reliant on Mario's star power amongst casual consumers at a time where there are plenty of Mario games to choose from. Like whats the hook here? Its a 2D puzzle platformer starring Mario at a time where we just had a big name brand new 2D Mario last holiday.

I think it's easy to say this won't climb past 2.5 million lifetime. Right now I'm hedging closer to 1.5 million LTD on where it ends up just because I'm doubtful we see this appear in the Q1 results for Nintendo come the report in May, and so it may be quite some time until we eventually see it pop up in a White Paper.

Also while I doubt the demo will impact it much, I do think that was a really bad demo to sell people on the game. Stages in MvDK are like a minute long and the demo offered 4 of them, so that says about how much actual game time you get to try it out.
 
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I'm guessing over 2.5mil, but not by much. This is very much in Captain Toad territory in terms of genre and appeal, and that game did 2.35mil on Switch alone and 3.72mil across both Wii U and Switch, so a little over 2.5mil WW is a conservative estimate based on that thinking.
 
I'm going to be more pessimistic in this case. I voted 1.5-2m, but I really think that it is going to sit right around 1.5m for lifetime. It doesn't feel like there is much of any buzz for this game. The franchise has been largely an eshop franchise for the longest time. I don't see a $50 remake making any huge waves. 1m wouldn't surprise me. Anything over 2m would be down right amazing.
 
If I'm being honest, I have a hard time seeing it go past 1 million. Hardly anyone seems to be talking about it, even I forgot it was coming out until I saw this thread. Feels a bit too late in the Switch's life for a niche Mario spinoff to do really good numbers.
 
1-1.5 imho, it's gonna be mostly parents thinking they are buying a regular Mario game for their kids while saving a buck because it'll be sold slightly cheaper than the others in a few months.
 
AK World said:
MvsDK_NS_Key_Artwork.png
The Mario vs. Donkey Kong remake is releasing in just under 3 weeks.

With the marketing starting to kick in, how much will this remake actually sell? Does it have a chance to become a modest hit and significantly outsell the original, or will it sell around the same ballpark (or less)?

The original Mario vs. DK was released on the GBA in 2004 and sold 1.37m copies for reference.
Click to expand...
Also for reference, Mario vs. Donkey Kong 2: March of the Minis on the DS sold 1.52M copies and Mario vs. Donkey Kong: Mini-Land Mayhem! also on the DS sold a quite impressive 2.98M.

I don't see this remake getting close to that third game, but 1.5M should be doable.
storres said:
Marketing has been non-existent. I believe it will pass a million, but not by much. Nintendo isn't really marketing their stuff. I really expected more for this and Peach.
Click to expand...
Not really true. I've seen new trailers for both this and Peach.
Terrell said:
I'm guessing over 2.5mil, but not by much. This is very much in Captain Toad territory in terms of genre and appeal, and that game did 2.35mil on Switch alone and 3.72mil across both Wii U and Switch, so a little over 2.5mil WW is a conservative estimate based on that thinking.
Click to expand...
Captain Toad is cheaper and took many years to get that high.
 
It's looking to be a pretty low-key release. Anything above 1M should be fine but I don't see it going much higher than that. It strikes me as the same tier as Miitopia, speaking of rereleases.
 
I would be shocked if it hit over 1.5, but this was likely made for a tiny budget, so it will be fine.
 
The game is really good so I voted 3,5 mill. I think the co op is a killer feature for this type of game. Had fun with my 5 year old while playing the demo.
 
Throwing my hat in the ring for 1.5m-2m. It'll be a nice, cool remake with good co-op that will have its appeal that way.
 
BTB123 said:
Captain Toad is cheaper and took many years to get that high.
Click to expand...
It was 1.58m as of June 2020 (would love for Wayback or Google to tell me what that number was in 2018 or 2019, but can't win 'em all), which was just under 2 years after its launch, with only a 770K difference between then and the most recent number in Dec 2022, and released when the userbase was... let's say a fair bit smaller and had mostly seen new B&M retail shipments disappear by 2020 outside of places like Japan that can backorder a product almost ad infinitum so long as there's enough of them for a new shipment.

If the situations aren't the same, that's fine, but you have to account for all the ways in which they're not the same then, and I think the larger userbase offsets the conditions you point out, as does this release of MvDK being separated from the original by a fair bit more than 4 years.
 
Captain Toad wasn't only cheaper, it was a straight port of a 3.5 year old game (with new DLC) and cross-gen with an honestly pretty cool looking 3DS day and date release. And (Captain) Toad isn't exactly Mario or DK in terms of massmarket popularity and awareness.

I think this game is going to do better than people expect. Still a pretty lowkey release but also multimillions lifetime.
 
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