|GIBiz] Analysts predictions for 2025 : Switch 2 (finally), GTA 6 to dominate, Ubisoft, AI in game dev...

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GamesIndustry just published their annual panel of industry-watchers who offered new forecasts for the year to come.

Panel:

This year we've got all of last year's participants returning: Niko Partners' Lisa Cosmas Hanson, Midia Research's Rhys Elliott, Kantan Games' Dr. Serkan Toto, Ampere Analysis' Piers Harding-Rolls and Newzoo's Emmanuel (Manu) Rosier.

The big topics on this year's prediction are the following

Switch 2

The Nintendo Switch 2 faces the challenge of living up to the original Switch's monumental success, even with the appeal of backward compatibility as an upgrade incentive.

With over 146 million units sold and helped by the pandemic, the original Switch has deeply penetrated the market, leaving many players satisfied with their current systems. Without groundbreaking innovations, consumers may see little reason to upgrade. Compounding the challenge, a budget-friendly version of the original Switch – if still available – could attract cost-conscious buyers, diverting attention from the new console.

To make an impact, the Switch 2 will need exclusive launch titles or games that fully utilize its hardware improvements. Yet, no major exclusives have been announced, leaving questions about how it will differentiate itself. While Nintendo's history suggests it may have surprises in store, surpassing the Switch's unprecedented sales figures seems like a steep climb.

Despite Nintendo's pledge and best efforts, the new device will sell out very quickly and not be available for months in 2025. It will be even worse than 2017 when the Switch launched. Furthermore, the name will be Switch 2. I also expect deep price cuts for the original Switch in 2025.

Nintendo will release its Switch 2 in 2025, and we should expect to see a new Mario Kart and a Super Mario title during the launch window. This console will sell well, driving game-related hardware and console revenues in 2025.

However, this is just the beginning for portable gaming’s oncoming tailwind. The attention economy is oversaturated, and Nintendo was shrewd to release a hybrid handheld that allows both at-home play on the TV and portable play. Similarly, companion portables like the Steam Deck complement a gamer’s main platform (a gaming PC, in this case). Companion portables give players more opportunities to engage with their ecosystem of choice, and more opportunities for games to grow their share of the attention economy [...]

The console market is set to grow marginally with Switch 2 launch (currently expected it to arrive in Q2 at minimum $400/€400) and GTA 6 releasing. US import tariffs are a dark cloud on the horizon, but I’m going to positively predict that console hardware is once again made exempt from these import charges.

If Switch 2 hits in Q2 (one to three months later in the year than the original Switch did), I’m forecasting sell-through of a little north of 13 million units. That’s a sales rate higher than the original Switch. I’m interested to see what Nintendo does with Nintendo Switch Online at launch. I’d like to think it will expand its content and feature set for the launch of the Switch 2.

GTA VI

Grand Theft Auto 6, scheduled for a fall 2025 release, is poised to reshape the gaming industry – much like its predecessor, GTA 5, which shattered records with 32.5 million units sold in its first year. While the market landscape has evolved, Rockstar's legacy of delivering groundbreaking experiences ensures that GTA 6 will leave a lasting mark.


When GTA 5 launched in 2013, it capitalised on the late lifecycle of the PS3 and Xbox 360, leveraging a vast and mature audience. GTA 6, by contrast, will arrive earlier in the PS5 and Xbox Series X|S lifecycle, facing a smaller but rapidly growing install base. However, the enduring success of GTA Online, with millions of active players, has kept the franchise at the forefront of gaming, driving extraordinary anticipation for GTA 6.

Rockstar's history of crafting genre-defining titles positions GTA 6 to set new industry standards. Yet, its challenge lies in navigating a gaming world increasingly dominated by live-service titles. How Rockstar adapts the Grand Theft Auto formula to this evolving landscape will not only determine GTA 6's success but may also redefine the future of open-world gaming.

The console market is set to grow marginally with Switch 2 launch (currently expected it to arrive in Q2 at minimum $400/€400) and GTA 6 releasing. US import tariffs are a dark cloud on the horizon, but I’m going to positively predict that console hardware is once again made exempt from these import charges.

GTA 6 will be the largest entertainment release of all time in terms of revenue generated in its launch months. Such is the size of a new GTA, if it is delayed into 2026, the console market performance will probably be down even without the potential impact of tariffs. GTA Online will continue for gamers that play on PS4, Xbox One and PC, meaning a fractured GTA userbase for Rockstar to deal with.

and more including Ubisoft's future, AI's impact on gaming and more trends...

Switch 2 (finally), GTA 6 to dominate, AI in game dev (again): Analysts predictions for 2025

Every year, we turn to a panel of trusted analysts to ask them what they see coming down the road, and ask them to asse…

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