FFXVI VS. FFVIIR-2

[Neo_arcadia7]

Final Fantasy VII Rebirth is right around the corner.

We know how well FFXVI performed domestic (Japan) & globally. While I think it’s fair to assume FFVIIR-2 will do better but just how much? Personally I think 400K-500K opening maybe reaching 700K physical LTD. Possible 1M with digital.

- FFVIIR launched with 703K physical, 1M including digital. Physical & digital estimates put FFVIIR at 1.5M via GDL


- FFVIIR sold more then FFXV (which was around 1.2M, digital estimates included) so it seems Japanese fans are more keen on picking up something that seems more traditional then new entries. Doesn’t change the fact that FF as a whole in Japan is not what it use to be.


- FFVIIR-2 is tracking ahead of FFXVI at COMG, though COMG can be tricky.



- PS5 does have more consoles in the market but the scalping issue will likely play a role in actual Japanese users. FFVIIR-2 will have the advantage of the “slim” model becoming available & the holiday season is right before the launch which could help build momentum for PS5 & that possibly lead into more consumers picking up FFVIIR-2

 

[Lelouch0612]

That's a great thread idea @Neo_arcadia7 !

Maybe you could put relevant data points in the OP to help people make a prediction ? (Previous launches for FF7R and FFXVI for example)

Also, try to specify clearly about what market you are talking (seems like Japan?)

 

[Himura Kenshin]

Final Fantasy VII Rebirth is right around the corner.

We know how well FFXVI performed domestic & globally. While I think it’s fair to assume FFVIIR-2 will do better but just how much? Personally I think 400K-500K opening maybe reaching 700K physical LTD. Possible 1M with digital.

You think FFVIIR-2 will open at 400K-500K with a 700K LTD?

Also, try to specify clearly about what market you are talking (seems like Japan?)

Ahh, this makes more sense. Yeah, you need to be clear about that cause otherwise this looks like a massive lowball.

 

[Neo_arcadia7]

Ahh, this makes more sense. Yeah, you need to be clear about that cause otherwise this looks like a massive lowball.

Updated. lol sorry domestic as in Japan.

 

[ILikeFeet]

I expect FF7R2 to do better, but I'm gonna say not significantly better.

 

[Tbone5189]

I think FFVIIR will do better in Japan by about 100k (retail)

WW? Maybe close to to tie. 4mil each

 

[Bodokoh]

FFXVI - 6.2m for PS5/PC
FF7R2 - 7m for PS5/PC

 

[Neo_arcadia7]

FFXVI - 6.2m for PS5/PC
FF7R2 - 7m for PS5/PC

Interesting. I have a feeling that FFVIIR walked so FFVIIR-2 could run. The sequel is more ambitious & might be a game attracts a wider audience. I am going to say 9-10M LTD for FFVIIR-2 (PS5/PC) I know that seems ambitious but my gut is telling me this might be the FF title that could really catch on.

 

[fiendcode]

R2 will do better everywhere imo. CBU3 should probably stick to MMOs without Niinou.

 

[Quinton]

I don't think Final Fantasy 7 Rebirth hits ten million worldwide LTD.

The more ambitious appearance, I think it's going to help court some who may have soured on Remake, or even stopped paying attention outright. This is good - before the previews dropped, I would have figured it'd be lucky to come within striking distance of its predecessor. Now, my thoughts are more positive, albeit cautiously so. Striking distance isn't out of the cards.

Even having played the demo firsthand, and it's plenty of fun, I just don't see it drawing in more people than Remake did. Maybe it gets a couple of hundred thousand newcomers, but I'd sooner predict they would help make up for those who have tuned out.

Since we know that Remake recently struck seven million, I think it could top out a couple million past that, in the (relatively) distant future. Meanwhile, Rebirth is the second part in a trilogy no matter how you slice it, and people aren't going to be fooled into thinking otherwise. And when we start talking about numbers as big as millions, it's a case where, IMO, if they're not interested by now, there won't be a meteoric shift going forward.

My global LTD prediction is the same as Bodokoh's: 7 million for Rebirth.

Now, as for Final Fantasy XVI. I don't know. LTD means forever, just as Vita means life. But still. In Japan, we know it's been performing poorly, and even its OW was low enough to make that abbreviation feel unusually apt. Any statistical numbers we can produce educated (but never guaranteed) inferences off of in the West don't seem to be ringing endorsements to Ifrit having particularly long legs.

5.5 million, even with PC on the horizon. A blemish on the franchise's perceived profitability, though hardly a downright disastrous one. Enough of one, however, that whatever the heck Final Fantasy XVII ends up as, and even with Square Enix's impressive propensity for making business decisions that don't appear sensible, I suspect it will be neither produced nor marketed in similar fashion.

 

[bladestrikex]

FFVIIR sold more then FFXV (which was around 1.2M, digital estimates included

FFXV is at 1.3m since August 2017 in Japan, XV was 1.1m in its launch month and did better than 7R at launch, 7R was only 1m in launch month including digital and it got an update much later. The fact that trackers still claim XV is 1.2m means that data is heavily outdated and hasn't been updated in nearly 7 years.

In an interview in August 2017 Tabata stated that XV had sold 6.5m worldwide so far and that 20% of FFXV sales are in Japan.

田畑氏：現在世界で650万本以上，そのなかの2割が日本で売れていますが，

Hajime Tabata: Currently, more than 6.5 million units have been sold worldwide, of which 20% have been sold in Japan.

2017/08/23 00:00

［gamescom］「FINAL FANTASY XV」はさらに進化する。新たに発表された展開について，ディレクターの田畑 端氏に聞いた

　PC版やスマホ版の発表をはじめとする「FINAL FANTASY XV」の新展開がgamescom 2017で明らかになった。発売から9か月経ってもなお活発な動きを見せる同作の今までとこれからについて，ディレクターの田畑 端氏にインタビューしたので，その模様をお届けしよう。

www.4gamer.net

20% of 6.5m is 1.3m

To answer your question Rebirth will do more than XVI but less than XV which had a higher launch than 7R, and less than 7R.

Worldwide Rebirth will do less than 7R's 3.5m but more than XVI's 3m. At the rate FFXVI is selling it will likely never hit 5m for another 4 years if at all. 7 Rebirth sales will keep getting prolonged due to the nature of the 7 Remake project, and part 1 and part 2 will get another boost when part 3 comes out.

 

[opaidiota]

I don't think Final Fantasy 7 Rebirth hits ten million worldwide LTD.

I believe it will, but only when the trilogy is complete and released on all possible platforms over the years.

I can easily imagine a pack with the trilogy being released on everything by 2028 lol

 

[Neo_arcadia7]

FFXV is at 1.3m since August 2017 in Japan, XV was 1.1m in its launch month and did better than 7R at launch, 7R was only 1m in launch month including digital and it got an update much later. The fact that trackers still claim XV is 1.2m means that data is heavily outdated and hasn't been updated in nearly 7 years.

In an interview in August 2017 Tabata stated that XV had sold 6.5m worldwide so far and that 20% of FFXV sales are in Japan.

［gamescom］「FINAL FANTASY XV」はさらに進化する。新たに発表された展開について，ディレクターの田畑 端氏に聞いた

　PC版やスマホ版の発表をはじめとする「FINAL FANTASY XV」の新展開がgamescom 2017で明らかになった。発売から9か月経ってもなお活発な動きを見せる同作の今までとこれからについて，ディレクターの田畑 端氏にインタビューしたので，その模様をお届けしよう。

www.4gamer.net

20% of 6.5m is 1.3m

To answer your question Rebirth will do more than XVI but less than XV which had a higher launch than 7R, and less than 7R.

Worldwide Rebirth will do less than 7R's 3.5m but more than XVI's 3m. At the rate FFXVI is selling it will likely never hit 5m for another 4 years if at all. 7 Rebirth sales will keep getting prolonged due to the nature of the 7 Remake project, and part 1 and part 2 will get another boost when part 3 comes out.

Thanks for the information. I was using GDL estimates. Hmm.. FFXVI can surely pass 5Million (PS5/PC) how much further will it go? Not sure. Maybe 7M at most.

Rebirth seems what people wanted from remake. Rebirth is also bundled with remake (digital) for the same price. Rebirth seems more appealing to a general audience. I just don’t see it selling less than remake at all. At least (WW) the excitement for remake was certainly storing but I feel like when most realized it was a bit more linear some of the excitement died down.

Rebirth could have more WOM due to its more sandbox style gameplay it could draw a bigger crowd. Reception with previews seems very positive as was remake. I am going to remain optimistic on this one but I feel rebirth will sell better then FFXVI domestically so in Japan & sell more then remake WW.

 

[Mekanos]

I expect Rebirth to sell slightly more but probably not more than a million or so.

 

[Danny]

XVI is in a weird state that while SE made it to appeal to western audiences in the end the asthetics made it unappealing both in Japan and in the west, it didn't appeal to any market. FF7 rebirth at least has Japanese appeal and appeal from western FF7 fans.