• Forum updates

    We have done some forum updates. Please check out the thread here.

February 2022 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Wednesday, March 9 [Predictions CLOSED / NEW RULES READ OP]


Because Michael Pachter of Wedbush Securities decided to stop subscribing to NPD this year, access to retail NPD appears to have been massively limited. Whether that's due to firms getting NPD through Pachter or agreeing with him that NPD data is worthless without digital sales (only video game companies that are on the digital board have access), leaks of hardware numbers might've dried up.

Fear not! I have a plan to remedy this set back so that this game can live on spirit. We will be transitioning away from predicting hardware units by console and instead be predicting Total Video Game Hardware Revenue and Order Of Consoles.

Every month NPD releases hardware revenue along with which console was in first place. We can always ask Mat Piscatella for the #2 console if he doesn't initially provide it.

How This Will Work
Predict how much revenue will be generated by Hardware for the given month as such

Good/Bad Formatting
Good                Bad
[REV] 405M          [REV] 400.5 million
[REV] 405,000,000   [REV] 405.000.000
[REV] 405000000     [REV] - 405000000

Then: Predict the order of each console as such

1. [NSW]
2. [PS5]
3. [XBS]

Hardware Revenue will be 50 points and follows how the hardware unit points work.

50 points * (percentage of correct revenue for hardware); anything over 100% difference = 0 points.

Correct Order would be the following in points.

If #1 correct = 18
If #2 correct = 10
If #3 correct = 7

If All Three correct = 15

That would be a total of 50 points to earn from console placements.

100 points in total to earn a month from the above two, plus bonus points for finishing in the Top 10 of hardware revenue.

#1 - 17 points
#2 - 13 points
#3 - 11 points
#4 - 9 points
#5 - 7 points
#6 - 5 points
#7 - 4 points
#8 - 3 points
#9 - 2 points
#10 - 1 point

Tradition Is Dead?
Not exactly. Because I don't know if/when numbers will be made available again, there's always the potential they pop up again. If that happens, I want all of us to still make predictions as we have in the past. So you can still attempt to predict hardware units which I highly encourage, they will just not be used for the points total or ranking unless we get confirmable numbers from NPD or leaks.

ITT, predict for the NPD February 2022 retail period (January 30, 2022 - February 26, 2022) for U.S. hardware REVENUE sales.

What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined by the National Retail Federation (find calendar links here).
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales followers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations. (Only used for Hardware Units)
Why are there still predictions when official NPD numbers are not released?:
Despite not receiving numbers from NPD directly since 2010, we have always found ways of obtaining them, whether through official company PR or leaks. These threads are also a place for the community to discuss the upcoming releases and current state of the US market as well as potential impacts in the future. In the end, it's for fun!

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EST on Wednesday, March 9th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: January 30, 2022 - February 26, 2022 (4 weeks, January was 4 weeks)
NPD Results Release: Thursday, March 10 @ 4 p.m. EST (PR+thread posted March 11)



1. [NSW]
2. [PS5]
3. [XBS]

Note: Combined totals for multi-SKUs. e.g. PS5 physical and digital edition total go under PS5. Xbox Series X and Xbox Series S total goes under XBS.

Good/Bad Formatting
Good                Bad
[REV] 405M          [REV] 400.5 million
[REV] 405,000,000   [REV] 405.000.000
[REV] 405000000     [REV] - 405000000

Good              Bad
[XBS] 1200K       [XBS] 1.2 million
[XBS] 1,200,000   [XBS] 1.200.000
[XBS] 1200000     [XBS] - 1200000

Potential hardware impacting events in February:
NSW OLED, PS5, and XBS shortages - 28 days
Tax Returns Begin Sent Out Estimated January 31 - 27 days

Video Game Hardware Prices
Switch: $199/$299/$349 (Lite/Regular/OLED)
Xbox Series: $299/$499 (S/X)
PS5: $399/$499 (Digital/Regular)

Older Hardware: ??? (This is a factor but a small one)

Recent History Of February Hardware Revenue

January 2021 NPD thread
February 2021 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
Top Bottom