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February 2022 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Wednesday, March 9 [Predictions CLOSED / NEW RULES READ OP]

Welfare

Welfare

Staff
Scholar Archivist Staff
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NEW RULES + EXPLANATION
Because Michael Pachter of Wedbush Securities decided to stop subscribing to NPD this year, access to retail NPD appears to have been massively limited. Whether that's due to firms getting NPD through Pachter or agreeing with him that NPD data is worthless without digital sales (only video game companies that are on the digital board have access), leaks of hardware numbers might've dried up.

Fear not! I have a plan to remedy this set back so that this game can live on spirit. We will be transitioning away from predicting hardware units by console and instead be predicting Total Video Game Hardware Revenue and Order Of Consoles.

Every month NPD releases hardware revenue along with which console was in first place. We can always ask Mat Piscatella for the #2 console if he doesn't initially provide it.

How This Will Work
Predict how much revenue will be generated by Hardware for the given month as such

Good/Bad Formatting
Code: 
Good                Bad
[REV] 405M          [REV] 400.5 million
[REV] 405,000,000   [REV] 405.000.000
[REV] 405000000     [REV] - 405000000

Then: Predict the order of each console as such

1. [NSW]
2. [PS5]
3. [XBS]

Points
Hardware Revenue will be 50 points and follows how the hardware unit points work.

50 points * (percentage of correct revenue for hardware); anything over 100% difference = 0 points.

Correct Order would be the following in points.

If #1 correct = 18
If #2 correct = 10
If #3 correct = 7

If All Three correct = 15

That would be a total of 50 points to earn from console placements.

100 points in total to earn a month from the above two, plus bonus points for finishing in the Top 10 of hardware revenue.

#1 - 17 points
#2 - 13 points
#3 - 11 points
#4 - 9 points
#5 - 7 points
#6 - 5 points
#7 - 4 points
#8 - 3 points
#9 - 2 points
#10 - 1 point

Tradition Is Dead?
Not exactly. Because I don't know if/when numbers will be made available again, there's always the potential they pop up again. If that happens, I want all of us to still make predictions as we have in the past. So you can still attempt to predict hardware units which I highly encourage, they will just not be used for the points total or ranking unless we get confirmable numbers from NPD or leaks.

ITT, predict for the NPD February 2022 retail period (January 30, 2022 - February 26, 2022) for U.S. hardware REVENUE sales.

What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined by the National Retail Federation (find calendar links here).
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales followers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations. (Only used for Hardware Units)
Why are there still predictions when official NPD numbers are not released?: Despite not receiving numbers from NPD directly since 2010, we have always found ways of obtaining them, whether through official company PR or leaks. These threads are also a place for the community to discuss the upcoming releases and current state of the US market as well as potential impacts in the future. In the end, it's for fun!

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EST on Wednesday, March 9th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: January 30, 2022 - February 26, 2022 (4 weeks, January was 4 weeks)
NPD Results Release: Thursday, March 10 @ 4 p.m. EST (PR+thread posted March 11)

Format:

[REV]

1. [NSW]
2. [PS5]
3. [XBS]

Note: Combined totals for multi-SKUs. e.g. PS5 physical and digital edition total go under PS5. Xbox Series X and Xbox Series S total goes under XBS.

Good/Bad Formatting
Code: 
Good                Bad
[REV] 405M          [REV] 400.5 million
[REV] 405,000,000   [REV] 405.000.000
[REV] 405000000     [REV] - 405000000

Code: 
Good              Bad
[XBS] 1200K       [XBS] 1.2 million
[XBS] 1,200,000   [XBS] 1.200.000
[XBS] 1200000     [XBS] - 1200000

Potential hardware impacting events in February:
NSW OLED, PS5, and XBS shortages - 28 days
Tax Returns Begin Sent Out Estimated January 31 - 27 days

Video Game Hardware Prices
Switch: $199/$299/$349 (Lite/Regular/OLED)
Xbox Series: $299/$499 (S/X)
PS5: $399/$499 (Digital/Regular)

Older Hardware: ??? (This is a factor but a small one)

Recent History Of February Hardware Revenue
Screen_Shot_2022-02-27_at_11.48.19_AM.png


January 2021 NPD thread
February 2021 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 
[REV] 300M

1. [XBS] 355K
2. [NSW] 330K
3. [PS5] 155K
 
[REV] 370M
1. [NSW] 400K
2. [XBS] 350K
3. [PS5] 175K
 
Last edited:
Thanks for adjusting to keep something going for predictions, Welfare!

[REV] 430M

1. [NSW] 430K
2. [XBS] 250K
3. [PS5] 175K
 
[REV] 320M


1. [NSW] 380K
2. [XBS] 310K
3. [PS5] 160K
 
Last edited:
SoonyXboneUhh said:
@Welfare will $ sales or unit be used for the 1-3 ranking?
Click to expand...
Oh God

I think for tradition we do unit rankings. If revenue is different I could do half points

So if unit rank is Xbox > Switch > PS5, but you predict Switch > Xbox > PS5 and that's the right order for revenue, you'd get half the points for #1 and #2. So predicting the unit ranking is higher priority but you can still save some points if the revenue ranking is different.

Next prediction thread I'll make this clearer. Overlooked the two rankings have been different before.
 
Below is my roundup of all the PS5/XBS drops in February

February Full Month (January 29 - February 26)

PS5 - NPD: ???
Week #StoresSource Post
1Source
2TargetSource
3Sony Direct / CostcoSource
4Walmart / Amazon / Sony DirectSource

Xbox Series - NPD: ???
Week #StoresSource
1GameflySource
2AntonlineSource
3GameStop / AntonlineSource
4GameStop / Walmart / Best Buy / Sam's Club (2) / Costco (2)Source
Notes
February is a special month in the US as this is around where tax reporting starts (January) and tax refunds are sent to tax payers (around start of February). What this means is that any money overpaid in taxes for the prior year will be sent back to the tax payer as a correction. The average refund this year is around $3,500

Amazon full month rankings: #16 Xbox Series S $299 / #20 PS5 $499 / #77 Xbox Series S Fortnite + Rocket League Bundle $299 (Amazon full month goes from February 01 to February 28) Source

Xbox Series S is in stock at GameStop, Walmart, Best Buy, Amazon, and Target.

Target began selling Xbox in stores again October 17, 2021. On any day they could sell units.

Best Buy is selling units in store unofficially and has a "trick" that shows which stores have inventory

February looks to be horrible for PS5, less so for Series X. This is the least amount of drops for a month in a long time. We already know Sony only plans on shipping 2M units worldwide for the January to March 2022 quarter. This is down from last year's 3.3M. How Sony splits US sales this quarter could be critical as they will have 1.3M less units to work with compared to 2021. January is estimated to have been high (think +300K), but going by these February drops, we are starting to see the limitations of the reduced shipments. PS5 US Q1 2021 sell through sales were ~33% of the worldwide shipment (3.3M). On the flip side, Q4 2021 was over 40%. Of that 2M expected shipments, that could mean PS5 will only be working with 660K to 800K units for all of Q1 2022, assuming Sony doesn't heavily pivot to the US to fend off Xbox and ship closer to 50% here. If not, PS5 would be closer to that lower range. It's possible we are only looking at 300K - 500K remaining units to be sent to the US over February and March.

Series S has been available all month again and was consistent in its ranking on Amazon (#16 in January & February) while having the reintroduction of the Fortnite Bundle adding even more sales. Series X on the other hand might be in a similar spot to PS5. The first two weeks were bare while the later half was somewhat busy.
 
Remember that you can still predict for the next two days!
 
[REV] 333M

1. [NSW] 352K
2. [XBS] 344K
3. [PS5] 195K

Total shot in the dark here, not feeling good on this lol.
 
Install Base Prediction Average
REV: 360.69M (Standard deviation = 36M)

NSW: 363K (Standard deviation = 32K)
XBS: 312K (Standard deviation = 32K)
PS5: 227K (Standard deviation = 60K)

There's also an update to how points will work. I made a judgement earlier but with some predictions not having the 1.2.3. placements, I'll let that slide for this month, but this is the definitive way points will be calculated and how you should format predictions from now, and what to actually focus on. Since this is the first new format, things aren't all settled in, but should be now.

The 1.2.3. placements are how you will be ranking each platform for revenue. So if it's revealed PS5 was #1 in revenue and you had PS5 as 1., you get points for that.

The "traditional" predictions for unit sales will be separate to that. You can put whatever number you want there, and some users have actually predicted different unit and revenue placements. You could have PS5 as 1. for revenue, but say you aren't that sure and want to hedge your bets on Xbox being the actual unit lead. Example prediction below:

1. [PS5] 200K
2. [XBS] 300K
3. [NSW] 100K

This user has PS5 winning revenue, but Xbox for units. This is a valid prediction. How points are calculated are still the same 50 points assigned, but like this.

Each ranking still has the same value, If #1 correct = 18, If #2 correct = 10, If #3 correct = 7. If the revenue and unit results have the same placements, then nothing changes.

If revenue and unit placements/results are different, then points will be halved. Take the above example and we'll say the actual results are PS5 > XBS > NSW in both revenue and units.

The above predictor would get 9 points for predicting PS5 on top of revenue, but not the full 18 due to the unit placement. They would get 5 points for XBS for the same reason as PS5, then 7 points for NSW.

There are also bonus points for If All Three correct = 15. In this user's case, they'd only get 7.5 points as they got the correct revenue order, but not units.

In total they'd have 28.5 / 50 points.

I hope this cleared up everything and was easy to grasp!
 
NPD Prediction Results - February 2022

Revenue

Result: $295M

1. Welfare - 5,000,000
2. Myriotes - 8,000,000
3. Astral_lion02 - 25,000,000
3. Xevross - 25,000,000
5. Malden - 30,000,000
6. Astrogamer - 35,000,000
6. Rellik - 35,000,000
6. DarkDetective - 35,000,000
9. Tbone5189 - 38,000,000
9. IronTed - 38,000,000
11. Luke88 - 45,000,000
12. TurnoftheCentury - 55,000,000
13. SoonyXboneUhh - 60,000,000
14. MysticGon - 65,000,000
15. Joxer - 70,000,000
16. Fatih_656 - 75,000,000
17. DeuceGamer - 77,000,000
18. Cobalt - 80,000,000
18. TrunksWD - 80,000,000
20. Wilmbreak - 80,000,000
21. Nocturnal - 82,000,000
22. reksveks - 85,000,000
22. jroc74 - 85,000,000
22. POE - 85,000,000
22. awng782 - 85,000,000
26. m051293 - 105,000,000
27. Josh5890 - 127,000,000
28. donny2112 - 135,000,000
29. Abzeronow - 155,000,000

We all over estimated hardware revenue this month. Not a single prediction under $300M!

Points

Code: 
February 2022                        Overall Top 2022       
1. Myriotes             111.68       Myriotes            121.68
2. Astral_lion02        107.09       Astral_lion02       117.09
2. Xevross              107.09       Xevross             117.09
4. Malden               102.38       Malden              112.38
5. Astrogamer           99.70        Astrogamer          109.70
5. Rellik               99.70        Rellik              109.70
7. IronTed              96.29        IronTed             106.29
7. Tbone5189            96.29        Tbone5189           106.29
9. Luke88               93.38        Luke88              103.38
10. TurnoftheCentury    92.14        TurnoftheCentury    102.14
11. SoonyXboneUhh       91.55        SoonyXboneUhh       101.55
12. Joxer               90.41        Joxer               100.41
13. Fatih_656           89.86        Fatih_656           99.86
14. DeuceGamer          89.65        DeuceGamer          99.65
15. Cobalt              89.33        Cobalt              99.33
15. TrunksWD            89.33        TrunksWD            99.33
15. Wilmbreak           89.33        Wilmbreak           99.33
18. awng782             88.82        awng782             98.82
18. reksveks            88.82        reksveks            98.82
20. Welfare             87.17        Welfare             97.17
21. Josh5890            84.95        Josh5890            94.95
22. donny2112           84.30        donny2112           94.30
23. DarkDetective       70.70        DarkDetective       80.70
24. POE                 59.82        POE                 69.82
25. Nocturnal           57.12        Nocturnal           67.12
26. m051293             54.88        m051293             64.88
27. Abzeronow           53.78        Abzeronow           63.78
28. MysticGon           40.97        MysticGon           50.97
29. jroc74              38.82        jroc74              48.82
30.                                  Aleh                10
30.                                  allan-bh            10
30.                                  Astrogamer          10
30.                                  Banjokazooie1992    10
30.                                  Bruno MB            10
30.                                  Chris1964           10
30.                                  Ctap                10
30.                                  Flakster99          10
30.                                  Jeean               10
30.                                  Judy                10
30.                                  jupyter55           10
30.                                  Kenka               10
30.                                  Kepagol             10
30.                                  KillerMan           10
30.                                  kwaogh              10
30.                                  Lelouch0612         10
30.                                  Luminoth 4545       10
30.                                  Nintendojitsu       10
30.                                  Nokia               10
30.                                  Revolsin            10
30.                                  Ryng™               10

Congratulations to Welfare for Revenue, and @Myriotes for Points!
 
Gotta say, I screwed myself by predicting Xbox > Switch. I wanted to change that at the last minute but decided the potential points advantage was too great if I was right.
 
Great work as always Welfare. It would be nice if we got actual figures. As of right now I got the correct order for the VGChartz estimates for the month and for the 2022 overall numbers. But hard to say if I am high or low on any particular platform.
 
Welfare said:
Gotta say, I screwed myself by predicting Xbox > Switch. I wanted to change that at the last minute but decided the potential points advantage was too great if I was right.
Click to expand...
Hell, I went for the upset picking PS5 over both, lol.
 
Haha, oh boy, my units sales estimate will be even more embarrassing with an 11th placement for Revenue, I didn't even do the proper math to estimate my units, I think I overshot by a lot in that regard.
 
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