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lol didn't know that. Forget my post haha
Famitsu reveals Fuga: Melodies of Steel (CyberConnect2) budget and 3-month earnings
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The thing with niche product like this, they should try to min max the profit there with Limited Edition and higher price for their products.
NIS has been selling this niche item with low sales for quite some time. And high pricing and LE is usually best way to get the profit.
Selling this digital only is not going to help.
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Absolutely true.
i don't know the full story here for sure. some of this is guesswork, but some of it is based on communication with people who were on the project.
my speculation is that after cc2 was let go from final fantasy vii remake, they had a come to jesus moment that they can't be work for hire forever. this is partly what killed telltale games.
working on little tail bronx isn't a bad idea in that respect. it's the only franchise cc2 can lay claim to that they apparently have some ownership over. the main problem is that over the course of twenty years, the series has never had a single hit.
another bit of speculation is that because cc2 has been work-for-hire, they have an incredibly warped perspective of the video game industry. their budget was roughly 3 million usd. after the share first-parties take, and because cc2 would own all of that 70% revenue, the break-even point just on development and publishing (assuming this includes all overhead including submissions, localization, marketing) is roughly 107,000 units (3,000,000 divided by [40 x 70%]). because of this, it's my assumption they were probably expecting something at least around 200,000 units. that sort of expectation makes more sense if you're cc2 and you're making games for bandai namco that regularly hits that number.
the stuff that isn't guesswork is that cc2 did look into western publishing options. they had high expectations for the title, but the market wasn't there. they couldn't find a partner that wanted to come up to those expectations and obviously went it alone.
they probably wouldn't have made back the budget anyway. but they also didn't make as big a push into the west as they probably could have. limited editions are one thing, but having any kind of physical presence is good. it's another space for your game to be seen and taken seriously. maybe they work something out with limited run, but that's just trying to plug up a hole instead of turning a profit.
if i was cc2 and planning on a self-publishing direction, i'd seek out other indie developers, buy out the rights to those projects, and then put my devs on them to bring them to the market. since i'm cc2 and apparently have workers for physical game manufacturing, start off building a brand of boutique japanese indie games that are digital only, and then work with limited run games or a similar team out west to bring the titles out physically. i'd hire a marketing agency like acttil to help promote western media pushes and facilitate interviews, without needing to license the rights of the games to a western studio, and maintain a solid profit.
in that case, cc2 could potentially fund five games for the money they put into fuga. the risk is dispersed. if all of them did poorly, then that would maybe be the result of poor management, but there's also a higher chance that there's some level of success whether it's a partnership with a talented developer or the success of a game outright.
"松山氏：『テイルコンチェルト』はワールドワイドでざっくり15万本くらい、『Solatorobo』もワールドワイドで10万本くらいでした。"
Tail Concerto WW LTD: ~150K
Solatorobo WW LTD: ~100K
Source
So basically, if CC2 were targeting ~107K as their breakeven point, that's roughly the same LTD of what the other two iterations achieved in worldwide sales.
That's how they likely justified its continued development and inflated budget after development took a lot longer than expected. The logic probably went something like this: "Well, we were able to manage 100K twice before with this IP, so that's about the size of our core fanbase. Worst case scenario we'll just breakeven on selling 100K again, and anything above that is profit, so we can't lose! Not only that, but we're selling at a higher ASP ($40 + $20 DLC) this time around, so now we need to sell even fewer units to turn a profit!"
But all of the business externalities behind its publication led to a steep dropoff in units sold which led to the 207 million JPY ($1.82 million) loss they now have prey to recoup with another >70K sales.
I agree that CC2's lack of experience on the publishing & marketing side of things hurt them when it came down to driving sales. If they approached it from a more savvy direction, they likely would have made a profit by now instead of gambling on the market & nostalgia to pull through for them.
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I’m sure a physical version would help. But it’s still going to be dead without any marketing around it.
The price is too expensice but the title does have quality. I think their price strategy is wrong. Asking 40 for a digital title these days is a lot. Look at what kind of games competitors are bringing out with more content for much less. They should have asked like 15 and try to sell a few 100K.
This is a common misconception in the gaming community. Reducing price doesn't inherently get you more sales. It definitely isn't guaranteed to get you enough extra sales to offset the huge loss in revenue from the much lower price tag.
CC2 has much higher costs than a project where one guy is making a game at home in his spare time, as was the case with, say, Stardew Valley. AruanaRiva is right that the way to go was to try to increase the perceived value of the game with a physical release, as digital only games are just the sort of thing where you think: "I'll wait for it at $5 in a Steam sale." You can also try to catch the eye of people who see it on a shelf in a store, where digital only games just disappear when you aren't actively thinking about them. Maybe create a higher margin limited edition sku with lots of goodies, and sell for $99. They definitely needed a real marketing strategy and advertising spend for this one, to reach people.
Then again, maybe the project itself was ill-founded, as Stu and Aquamarine suggest. I definitely don't think cutting the price by more than 60% would have made them better off. It would have forced them to sell more than two-and-a-half times times as many copies to make about as much money, which would have been unrealistic for such a niche franchise.
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The problem of the premium product's price model is that the publisher limits the amount of money one can spend on the game. Even if I'm prepared to pay $100 for this game, I can only spend $40 on it. Everyone who thinks $40 is fair value for this game will buy it, but the people who think it's more valuable than that can't spend that excess money on it. The people who value the game at $30 don't want to pay $40 for it, and thus won't buy it. The publisher can decide to decrease the price to $30 some time after launch, at which point that person can decide to buy the game after all. However, it's impossible for the publisher to raise the price afterwards again, because $30 is the new perceived fair value of the game, especially in environments that are very price sensitive, such as PC gaming. This is why it makes sense to aim high with the price when you launch a premium title. This is a mistake that a lot of indie developers make: sell their game too cheaply. An added benefit is that, if they discount the game during a Steam sale a year after launch, the discount is much bigger (in percentage) if you compare to a high launch day price.
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This is a strategy that I think some of these newly self-publshing developers should take. Releasing smaller games might help mitigate risks and gives these companies lower-stakes opportunities to get experience/networking in publishing responsibilities. That way, they can build a foundation as a brand and as a team to publish their own games down the line. I bet there are some JP indie devs out there that would love to get funding/support and attach their game to a pre-existing brand. Platinum should've taken that route before their initiative, and CC2 should've done something similar too.
I have no problem spending ¥10000+ on a game (although, I will shop around between retailers for the cheaper price), but I take the "never pay more than 20 bucks for a computer game" adage to heart when it comes to digital. The artwork does nothing for me since I'm not into furries, general gameplay from what I read sounds interesting though.
You make fair points but I figured if I see what's out there and for very low prices, this title doesn't seem to be worth the 40. It isn't an exceptional game, it doesn't have a lot of content, doesn't innovate, the budget is not that high and it's a niche franchise. I think a lower price would help it make more returns.
I am actually quite surprised that CC2 don't try to get X-Seed or NISA or even CLP to publish their game worldwide there. Sure it won't give them more money but it will surely give them extra revenue that can be used to close some of the holes the game cost the company there.
But this is going to be growing pain for CC2 if you ask me. They are certainly on much better place than Level-5 or PLatinum if they are starting to go self publishing as they are still the go to place for support devs. So while it is risky, it can be mitigated if Matsuyama keep getting contracts.
But this is going to be growing pain for CC2 if you ask me. They are certainly on much better place than Level-5 or PLatinum if they are starting to go self publishing as they are still the go to place for support devs. So while it is risky, it can be mitigated if Matsuyama keep getting contracts.
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I don't think MysticGon was at all alluding they sold 100k, as I understood it MysticGon was alluding to part of the argument that as an end result caused Chris's one day ban on Era and eventually brought Installbase into life, and that said it was not enough to sell 100K to get your budget back - while we have here an actual game for which we know the budget and where 100k full price units (or even less) would get your budget back.
Honestly should help if they sell enough copies to rank in the top 10. Being close to a non-competing major release can boost it. It wouldn't help a huge amount but, could bring in like 10k extra copies. A lower priced game would work better but, it more matters what other indies are competing for that launch
Does this include Gamepass downloads? If yes, that number feels very low still.
Hope not, it would be bad for the game and to gamepass. If a game like this is played for so few MS could feel there no need to add more games of this type.
First three months sales estimates were between 20k~40k. Considering that it never got a massive discount (40% was the highest) and I don't remember ever seeing it even close to ranking in any chart of the eShop, unless PC had massive legs, the only way this number can feel realistic is if they included Game Pass downloads.
As noted a while back by @MysticGon, they announced 100k just a month ago on December 13th (or maybe 6th, I'm not sure)
www.famitsu.com
Translated with DeepL:
If those 100k are all sales with no Game Pass, then 150k is definitely with it because there's no way they sold 50k in one month when they needed a year and a half for just 100k.
Alternatively, those 100k could also include Game Pass downloads in which case the sales could potentially be even lower!
【『戦場のフーガ』開発記録】『インターミッション』第19回 - 戦場のフーガ 鋼鉄のメロディ
サイバーコネクトツー松山社長が『戦場のフーガ』の開発秘話を赤裸々に解説する『インターミッション』。第19回をお届け。
www.famitsu.com
Translated with DeepL:
If those 100k are all sales with no Game Pass, then 150k is definitely with it because there's no way they sold 50k in one month when they needed a year and a half for just 100k.
Alternatively, those 100k could also include Game Pass downloads in which case the sales could potentially be even lower!
The game was added to Game Pass on September 15, 2022, so the 100k most likely include Game Pass downloads as well.As noted a while back by @MysticGon, they announced 100k just a month ago on December 13th (or maybe 6th, I'm not sure)
【『戦場のフーガ』開発記録】『インターミッション』第19回 - 戦場のフーガ 鋼鉄のメロディ
サイバーコネクトツー松山社長が『戦場のフーガ』の開発秘話を赤裸々に解説する『インターミッション』。第19回をお届け。
Translated with DeepL:
If those 100k are all sales with no Game Pass, then 150k is definitely with it because there's no way they sold 50k in one month when they needed a year and a half for just 100k.
Alternatively, those 100k could also include Game Pass downloads in which case the sales could potentially be even lower!
I feel like they would've said just "downloads" instead of "download sales"(which I believe they say in Japanese as well) if that were the case, so I think it's 100k units sold and 50k downloads on Game Pass
Main reasoning is that the game had sold 20-40k in its first 3 months (from your estimates posted above) and then it had an entire year of sales before entering Game Pass. If the 100k includes GP downloads it's safe to say that they were less that 50k in the first 3 months between September and December, which should be when it performs the best, and then suddenly there would be a random 50k jump from December to January which just doesn't make sense to me. On the other hand selling 100k in ~18 months and having 50k downloads on Game Pass in 5 months seems a bit more coherent.
I don't know, maybe my reasoning is wrong, but that jump from 100k to 150k in one month is what's making me think one is sales and the other sales+downloads.
You are right, they specifically mention DL in their 150k tweet announcement, while they use ダウンロード販売 in the 100k one. These are really good legs then!
Discounts and demo did their job
Almost simultaneously
The series has been downloaded more than 300k times
Translated tweet:
As seen a few posts above, the first game was at 200k downloads by May 11, just before the launch of the sequel. That's less than 100k downloads for the sequel in ~3 months despite being on Game Pass at launch, which doesn't really sound all that great to me.
I really want to know what the actual sales for these games are... just out of morbid curiosity...
Translated tweet:
As seen a few posts above, the first game was at 200k downloads by May 11, just before the launch of the sequel. That's less than 100k downloads for the sequel in ~3 months despite being on Game Pass at launch, which doesn't really sound all that great to me.
I really want to know what the actual sales for these games are... just out of morbid curiosity...
I really don't think GP downloads are counted there, that would be disastrous result for both regular sales and GP downloads.
The series has been downloaded more than 300k times
Translated tweet:
As seen a few posts above, the first game was at 200k downloads by May 11, just before the launch of the sequel. That's less than 100k downloads for the sequel in ~3 months despite being on Game Pass at launch, which doesn't really sound all that great to me.
I really want to know what the actual sales for these games are... just out of morbid curiosity...
In Japan, on Switch, during the launch week(s) of Fuga 2 both the regular and deluxe edition were outsold by the discounted versions of the first game. Of course, it is only one region and only one console, but it doesn't paint a good image.
JP Switch eShop Chart for the period of May 08 - May 21, 2023222./00. Fuga: Melodies of Steel {2021-07-29} (JPY 4180.0) (is 40% off)
306./461. Fuga: Melodies of Steel 2 {2023-05-11} (JPY 4180.0)
419./00. Fuga: Melodies of Steel 2 Deluxe Edition {2023-05-11} (JPY 6380.0)
I forgot to track the deluxe edition of the first game, but it was a lot close to the regular edition of the 2nd game.
Knowing the initial results of the first game and the fact that it never did a big splash anywhere in digital charts, there is no way these numbers don't include GP downloads.
Well, I kinda forgot the original also launched on GP (though not at launch?), so yeah. 
Not sure if this is going to help with sales, but game is getting 8 new languages in October and November (Spanish LATAM, PT-BR, Chinese, Italian, German, Korea, and Russian).
They are also releasing the first DLC (cosmetic taken from Tail Concerto) so they are at least supporting it
At least, CC2 is doing everything they can to make this successful there. Getting Gamepass money will certainly help.
A bit surprised companies like Pixnlove/Pqube or even LRG does not approach them with some benjamins to license their game physically there.
I think they had a big problem of Press Relationship. I had hard time to search and find a way to contact them to ask for a review code.(Gamespress was outdated). I finaly had a mail thanks to a mutual contact.
And even after that, i received some PR mails (badly produced) for some DLC content, but never for the second game.
They better had a contract with an established PR to start self publishing.
Prior to the release on Gamepass the 1st game didn't reach 100k players worldwide and it's likely still sub-100k outside of Gamepass, so honestly not surprised in the least those publishers are not interested in making a physical release for Fuga.
I still recall when they release DLC for the 1st Fuga, I learned about it but only because I'm subscribed to CC2 Youtube channel otherwise I saw no article about it. Their communication is very lacking.