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Expectations regarding Mario Kart 8 Deluxe lifetime sales

How much will MK8D have sold when it is all said and done?

  • Total voters
    114
Kenka

Kenka

Member
Enthusiast
Mario Kart 8 is an evergreen that has outlived most games of its generation. Along with GTA V and Minecraft, it is the posterchild of what we call 'legs'. Hence, it is a thrilling exercise to guess where those legs will stop.

With the recent announcement of additional tracks for the game, it has become harder to say anything about its potential final tally, except that it undeniably grew larger. What's your take?

Technical note: an eventual retail or digital re-release of the game with the additional tracks will count as well!

P.S. : we miss you a bit tbone.
 
With Nintendo saying the Switch has some years left and the game selling another 5 million copies in the last financial quarter i would say at least between 60 and 70. Higher than that depends on how long Nintendo keeps the Switch and if the successor has backwards compatibility I think
 
My prediction
2022 = ~8m
2023 = ~6.5m
2024 and beyond = ~6.5m

Ltd sales should be around 65m
 
Kenka said:
Mario Kart 8 is an evergreen that has outlived most games of its generation. Along with GTA V and Minecraft, it is the posterchild of what we call 'legs'. Hence, it is a thrilling exercise to guess where those legs will stop.

With the recent announcement of additional tracks for the game, it has become harder to say anything about its potential final tally, except that it undeniably grew larger. What's your take?

Technical note: an eventual retail or digital re-release of the game with the additional tracks will count as well!

P.S. : we miss you a bit tbone.
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Hey Kenka, awesome thread:)
Maybe you can post in the OP the actual numbers from Nintendo for that game, so we have a better way of predicting:)
 
I'll quote myself here:
awng782 said:
Launch aligned Mario Kart sales by quarter:
cf9c2bcb206c0ddb371ec5f3c06e04b24a60bf35a56c69d7639fad08e947f9c8.png


Mario Kart 8 Deluxe CY sales:
- CY2017: 7.33M
- CY2018: 7.69M
- CY2019: 7.94M
- CY2020: 10.45M
- CY2021: 9.94M
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The Booster Course Pass DLC lasting up to end of 2023 means another 2 years of selling 8-10M annually, so it should reach 60M+ by the end of 2023. Lifetime sales could feasibly reach 70M.
 
ItsOKAY said:
Hey Kenka, awesome thread:)
Maybe you can post in the OP the actual numbers from Nintendo for that game, so we have a better way of predicting:)
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First, I have been an Eintracht fan for the past few years. Rebic/Haller/Jovic/Kostic all rock. Cheers!

Secondly, another poster has a list of all quarterly sales of all major evergreen titles on Switch but I haven't saved it and I can't find it again. Suffices to say that MK8D sold 5M units... last quarter! It is a very healthily selling title.
 
It will probably get way above 60 but not sure if it can reach 70. It all depends on how long they will continue to support it. Maybe a next gen upgrade with additional courses or a story mode or something could extend it's life significantly but I think they will announce a new Mario Kart soon after the DLC tracks end.
 
Should be up yoy this year and sell 10M again thanks to the DLC. Next year shouldn't be massively down either.
It'll reach 70M more likely than not.
 
Kenka said:
First, I have been an Eintracht fan for the past few years. Rebic/Haller/Jovic/Kostic all rock. Cheers!

Secondly, another poster has a list of all quarterly sales of all major evergreen titles on Switch but I haven't saved it and I can't find it again. Suffices to say that MK8D sold 5M units... last quarter! It is a very healthily selling title.
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First of all:
That's awesome. Thanks for the Support! Now against Barcelona!! For us a Game of the century! We will come with thousands of people to Barcelona:)

(Oliver Kahn rocks;))

Yeah, it's very healthy! With the DLC i think it's in such a good pisition to sell between 65-70m lifetime.
 
Above 70M. Not sure if it can reach 80M, will be great if it manages to beat Wii Sports and become Nintendo's best selling title.
EDIT: actually forgot about Wii U sales. if it manages to reach 73M it will become the best selling nintendo title.
 
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Sales have gone up in Amazon charts and eshop after the Mar10 sales and the dlc. Basically a second launch for this game. (Like it needed it).
 
I think it will get to the high 60's but not quite to 70m. This is for the Switch version only.

I'd also like to point out that the OP mentioned Minecraft and GTA5. One reason these games keep selling so much is that they keep releasing them on new platforms. Another reason they keep selling is that they keep releasing new content for these games. I'd also like to point out that MK 8 is now fulfilling both of these criteria as well. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if it is also on Nintendo's next console at this point.

If we want to compare MK8 to Minecraft and GTA5, it might be a good idea to add all SKUs together for total sales, since that is what is done when we track the sales of these two games. Of course, that is probably a topic for another thread (and maybe at a later date).
 
75M, which would put the NSW + WiiU sales of the game above the lifetime total for Wii Sports.
 
The_Liquid_Laser said:
I think it will get to the high 60's but not quite to 70m. This is for the Switch version only.

I'd also like to point out that the OP mentioned Minecraft and GTA5. One reason these games keep selling so much is that they keep releasing them on new platforms. Another reason they keep selling is that they keep releasing new content for these games. I'd also like to point out that MK 8 is now fulfilling both of these criteria as well. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if it is also on Nintendo's next console at this point.

If we want to compare MK8 to Minecraft and GTA5, it might be a good idea to add all SKUs together for total sales, since that is what is done when we track the sales of these two games. Of course, that is probably a topic for another thread (and maybe at a later date).
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They're also a lot cheaper and often given away in bundles. There's a chance MK8D could be more heavily bundled at some point in the future. But as you say, they could release a Deluxe+ version on the next Switch, especially if the next game in the series is a bit of a departure and they decide to support both games simultaneously.
 
Kenka said:
Mario Kart 8 is an evergreen that has outlived most games of its generation. Along with GTA V and Minecraft, it is the poster child of what we call 'legs'. Hence, it is a thrilling exercise to guess where those legs will stop.
Click to expand...
Really should add in the 8.5 million on Wii U.

MK8 and 8D are closer to the same game than the PS3 and PS4 versions of GTAV are.
 
I think it should easily pass 70 by the end of its life, and probably pass 60 by time the DLC wraps up.

Ultimately, I'd love to see it pass Wii Sports, which really depends on when a successor launches. The longer they wait, the better the odds. At the very least, it does have a good shot to outsell Wii Sports when combining the Wii U & Switch versions (which we might as well do since we combine all versions for games like GTA V & Minecraft, although I could understand this being a slightly different situation from GTA V & Minecraft).
 
It has sold 7-10 million every year and I expect it to continue doing so until the switch starts to significantly decline. I’ll say definitely above 60 million whether it crosses 70 just depends on the life cycle of the switch.
 
Changed my vote from 60/70M to +70M because of big chances of backward compatibility with the next big Switch iteration.
 
Copy/pasting my previous guess of 70+ (closer to 75 to be precise. The dlc, backwards compatibility, and I'm thinking possibly even a dlc- included pack (like Pokemon, BotW and Splatoon 2) should get it high up. If the switch family can be supported long enough then passing Wii sports might just be in the cards also
 
The mid sixty million's is very reachable at this point and probably a conservative estimate.

2017-2022
FY 17-18: 9.22m
FY 18-19: 7.47m
FY 19-20: 8.08m
FY 20-21: 10.62m
FY21-22: 7.96m after Q3, Total 9.5m to 10m?
Total: around 45m
Future
FY 22-23: 8.5m?
FY 23-24: 6.5m?
FY 24-25: 4m?
FY 25-26: 2m?
Total: 66m?
 
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Jackano said:
It has an attach-rate of what, 33~40% of Switch hardwre sales?
Another 10 millions is pretty secure IMO. So yay, around 60M maybe. Crazy.
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43.35 million sold on an install base of 103.54 million works out as an attach rate of 41.87%.
 
~65/70 millions.

+8 2022
+8 2023
+4 2024 (MK10 releases*)
+2/1 2025/6/7 (All OG Switch models gets discontinued)

*MK10 will be a new concept on the series, full battle royale, think Fortnite or Apex but with MK gameplay. Nintendo will positioned MK8DX+Booster Pass as the ultimate MK classics game.
 
LoneRanger said:
*MK10 will be a new concept on the series, full battle royale, think Fortnite or Apex but with MK gameplay. Nintendo will positioned MK8DX+Booster Pass as the ultimate MK classics game.
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"Battle Royale Racing" sounds like it could maybe work as a single game mode, not something to base the entire Mario Kart 10 off of.
 
LoneRanger said:
~65/70 millions.

+8 2022
+8 2023
+4 2024 (MK10 releases*)
+2/1 2025/6/7 (All OG Switch models gets discontinued)

*MK10 will be a new concept on the series, full battle royale, think Fortnite or Apex but with MK gameplay. Nintendo will positioned MK8DX+Booster Pass as the ultimate MK classics game.
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I don't see the sales dropping so much this year despite the DLC.
 
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