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Europe Monthly Charts - October 2023: #1 PS5 (+143%), #2 NSW (-20%), #3 XBS (-52%)

For Nintendo, Nintendo 64 was a huge dispointement because they went from being the clear leader to a distant second player largely beaten by Sony in the TV console space.

Gamecube was the following generation doing worse.

It's funny but I see the same patern with Xbox one and Xbox Series.

Xbox one was the generation Xbox lose the strong position they aquire with Xbox 360.

Xbox Series is the following generation doing worse.

In someway what we need is the Wii of Xbox.
 
Valve will only agree if Valve gets its usual 30% cut.
A 30% cut will destroy the economics of GP (unless the increase the price by said 30%).
Valve's cut scales by purchases/installs (and also they see GP as a potential selling point for Deck, which leaves more room for negotiation here) but on Microsoft's side the impact of the platform fee will probably depend on scale they can hit on Steam. If they can grow GP by 10m+ almost immediately and expand from there that can change the economics on competitive storefronts if they can work out a more reasonable fee (say 15-20%). 3rd party curation can play a role too though honestly I'd expect Valve being less concerned here, title curation would be more a factor for Sony and Nintendo potentially.

I think the reality is getting to 100m subscribers won't be possible without access to these other massive established userbases. They really need to get GP on everything they possibly can and move past Xbox & Windows Store.
 
Microsoft seems to have overestimated streaming, we know that tv streaming like Disney +, Netflix, HBO Max etc all show major profitability problems over time. So i don't see why they think their gaming streaming strategy should lead to them to kill off all their competitors in the long run which they seems to be betting everything off.

Another problem is that they can't even make full use of them buying up studios because they still have to let games like CoD come out on competitor platforms, which leads to people not having to abandon Playstation to continue playing major releases like CoD, the whole point of buying out studios should be to have to force people to jump from the much more popular Playstation to Xbox to continue to play the major games they use their Playstation to play today, but now people can continue to enjoy those games on Playstation which means no change in the status quo anyway. In fact it seems to get worse for Microsoft, because soon even Nintendo players will get to enjoy CoD games, so their situation gets worse with even larger groups of players getting to enjoy Microsoft owned games without having to buy Xbox hardware. Gamepass has already proven that its not a main driver anyway, with Microsoft logic of how attractive they think gamepass is people should already during this generation have jumped ship from non gamepass Playstation to Xbox, that isn't happening so gamepass is simply not the attractive gamechanger that Microsoft have convinced themselves that it is.
 
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If they can grow GP by 10m+ almost immediately and expand from there that can change the economics on competitive storefronts if they can work out a more reasonable fee (say 15-20%). 3rd party curation can play a role too though honestly I'd expect Valve being less concerned here, title curation would be more a factor for Sony and Nintendo potentially.

MSFT has no leverage against Valve in the first place. The only way they can even have a meaningful sub count on PC is with Steam.

All the cards are in Valve's hand so it makes no sense to reduce the fee.
 
MSFT has no leverage against Valve in the first place. The only way they can even have a meaningful sub count on PC is with Steam.

All the cards are in Valve's hand so it makes no sense to reduce the fee.
The fee reduces automatically with purchases. It's not a flat 30% though I can't remember offhand how low it goes or what the thresholds are.

And no, Valve wants GP for Deck, they're actually the only one we've heard from regarding GP and Steam. There is room for negotiation here given Valve sees value in having the service on their platform and publicly said as much. Who knows, maybe a deal is already being worked out...
 
They are far better than what halo has become but it was indeed a drop in quality over the original trilogy.

5 is a step in the right direction but 4 and Judgement were not.


Oh, I agree: I was talking about 5 and Tactics
Honestly cant wait for 6 (on Gamepass day1 too!)
 
But MSFT has tied their entire gaming venture to Xbox at this moment. There are two things, 3rd P store sales, and GamePass. Without these, MSFT will just be another third party publisher.

The vast majority of 3P TRX revenue is from Xbox.
90% of Gamepass subscribers are from Xbox.

As the Xbox installbase declines, MSFT will loose huge money from 3P TRX and GP sub numbers will fall.

As Phil Spencer says, if they cannot grow the sub base outside of Xbox consoles to the point where Xbox is the minority, then MSFT may exit gaming as a whole.

Businesses like MSFT who care incredibly about their stock and margins, do not just invest $70B to get a few % ROI or stay 3rd place and flat. We all saw MSFT's moonshot predictions for gaming, $30B revenue, market leader, 100M GP subs. MSFT wants high ROI and a high margin business in the end.

So whats their strategy?
Mobile stores in the US (ATVI's biggest market by far) is not going to be viable for many years (if ever), let alone a successful one.
Xbox console is declining and alongside it GP subs will likely decline as well.

They're only left with one place: PC. Phil Spencer said the same thing in his testimony. GP has to explode on PC to basically overtake/equal Xbox for it to still be viable. There's nowhere else where they can grow.

And the competition is obvious when Sony is actively eating into Xbox's installbase in the US/UK, as well as competing on exclusive AAA content.
Phil Spencer tried to paint the bleakest picture possible for Xbox so that he would get the ABK deal through. They recently spent almost $80B on gaming, do you really think they're gonna leave anytime soon? Again, actions speak louder than words.
 
The fee reduces automatically with purchases. It's not a flat 30% though I can't remember offhand how low it goes or what the thresholds are.

And no, Valve wants GP for Deck, they're actually the only one we've heard from regarding GP and Steam. There is room for negotiation here given Valve sees value in having the service on their platform and publicly said as much. Who knows, maybe a deal is already being worked out...

From the Epic leak its 80/20 for $50M+, 75/25 for $10M+

Valve wanting it for a device that at best has sold a few million versus their entire Steam platform are two completely different bases.

I'm not saying a deal can't be worked out. I'm saying MSFT has no leverage here.

Phil Spencer tried to paint the bleakest picture possible for Xbox so that he would get the ABK deal through. They recently spent almost $80B on gaming, do you really think they're gonna leave anytime soon? Again, actions speak louder than words.

The goals and their missed targets are from their own internal presentations even if you believe Phil was misleading in his testimony.
 
From the Epic leak its 80/20 for $50M+, 75/25 for $10M+

Valve wanting it for a device that at best has sold a few million versus their entire Steam platform are two completely different bases.

I'm not saying a deal can't be worked out. I'm saying MSFT has no leverage here.
Valve wanting it for Deck literally gives Microsoft leverage. You can argue how much but repeating "no leverage"just doesn't square with Valve's comments.

At those rates MS would hit the 20% threshold with just 5m monthly subs or under 1m annual subs. Seems very doable really.
 
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I don’t really think its an obsession. The hardware sales are continually dropping. It makes it a pretty interesting discussion to see microsoft investing so much money into gaming and seeing what would typically be pretty worrying for a console manufacturer losing more and more marketshare.

The same concern is made about playstation in Japan with their terrible software sales.

Imagine the conversation we would be having if the Switch was selling less YoY than the Wii U.
The point is that Microsoft in gaming business is much more than a console manufacturer, so there's no doubt that Xbox console is having a mediocre performance, but this is just one slice of their business.
 
The point is that Microsoft in gaming business is much more than a console manufacturer, so there's no doubt that Xbox console is having a mediocre performance, but this is just one slice of their business.

The problem I have with that, it ignores Phil saying that they need those consoles sales and GamePass isn't growing as fast as they want because of their low consoles sales. Remember, even with GamePass, MS calls the Xbox One a flop and treats it like the Wii U. Yet, the Series is doing slightly worse year 3. They basically got ABK by saying how much they suck and neither the CMA, FTC, or Sony could point to a massive success that the Xbox brand had to say that they're exaggerating and they're doing just fine despite being third in consoles because of GamePass and their other slice of business.
 
The point is that Microsoft in gaming business is much more than a console manufacturer, so there's no doubt that Xbox console is having a mediocre performance, but this is just one slice of their business.

You can’t really divorce xbox consoles from the other things they are doing. Console sales are directly tied to subscription and cloud adoption
 
The problem I have with that, it ignores Phil saying that they need those consoles sales and GamePass isn't growing as fast as they want because of their low consoles sales. Remember, even with GamePass, MS calls the Xbox One a flop and treats it like the Wii U. Yet, the Series is doing slightly worse year 3. They basically got ABK by saying how much they suck and neither the CMA, FTC, or Sony could point to a massive success that the Xbox brand had to say that they're exaggerating and they're doing just fine despite being third in consoles because of GamePass and their other slice of business.
If Microsoft were so focused on hardware sales they would end day one releases on PC and cloud to help the console.

I'm sure they would love to sell more boxes, but their approach of the market is more broader and if in the end their business keeps growing, that's success.
 
If Microsoft were so focused on hardware sales they would end day one releases on PC and cloud to help the console.

I'm sure they would love to sell more boxes, but their approach of the market is more broader and if in the end their business keeps growing, that's success.

Except they said that they are concern about console sales. What Phil said was that they can't sale consoles like Nintendo and Sony. Which is fine, but you can't call the Xbox One this giant failure when the Series are doing comparable sales numbers and all that's being successful. Especially when MS build the entire ABK case on being third and no one could proved them being successful enough in other businesses in gaming to get the deal kill. The best the CMA had was a 'what if' in regards to Cloud gaming which MS stated was still an unknown.
 
Nothing is lost yet, MS can have a PS3 Slim scenario, but who knows?
That leaked Xbox Series X Digital had better come with a big price cut (and not be the same price as the current Series X). Ideally this would be timed with a bundle with next year's COD.

Even then I feel like this will only slow the decline rather than reversing it.
 
You can’t really divorce xbox consoles from the other things they are doing. Console sales are directly tied to subscription and cloud adoption
I don't think it's divorcing, just pointing out MS goes relatively far outside their Xbox/Windows ecosystem compared to Nintendo or SIE. Things like Minecraft or day one Steam releases are pretty huge revenue drivers in that direction, or even smaller things like multiplatform Bethesda upgrades/remasters or Rare on NSO, and that's only going to accelerate with massive earners like COD, WOW and Candy Crush under their belts now.

Sony really only has super late Steam ports, the licensor driven multiplat MLB deal and now an underperforming Bungie by comparison. Nintendo has their mobile initiative which is practically on life support. Both companies are entirely dependent on their consoles in a way MS Gaming sort of isn't. That's not to say Xbox isn't vitally important too but there's a clear distinction here still.
 
Phil Spencer tried to paint the bleakest picture possible for Xbox so that he would get the ABK deal through. They recently spent almost $80B on gaming, do you really think they're gonna leave anytime soon? Again, actions speak louder than words.

MS shutting down console hardware business isn't leaving gaming at all.
 
Except they said that they are concern about console sales. What Phil said was that they can't sale consoles like Nintendo and Sony. Which is fine, but you can't call the Xbox One this giant failure when the Series are doing comparable sales numbers and all that's being successful. Especially when MS build the entire ABK case on being third and no one could proved them being successful enough in other businesses in gaming to get the deal kill. The best the CMA had was a 'what if' in regards to Cloud gaming which MS stated was still an unknown.
Xbox One sold 58 million, this is far from a giant failure and Microsoft can be successful in gaming being a distant third in consoles because their revenue come from diverse sources, including Playstation.

Obviously if their console business improves will be even better, but they will not sacrifice other sources to improve Xbox sales.
 
Have we ever seen console sales targets? All I remember is revenue and Gamepass.

There was that slide saying their target for the 2nd half of the XBS cycle. Iirc they say a similar LTD 58M, with the down case being 54M.

We also have stuff like them wanting hardware revenue to double by FY30, or 60M Xbox GP and GPU subs by FY30 (as well as PC GP subs 30M)
 
Xbox One sold 58 million, this is far from a giant failure and Microsoft can be successful in gaming being a distant third in consoles because their revenue come from diverse sources, including Playstation.

Obviously if their console business improves will be even better, but they will not sacrifice other sources to improve Xbox sales.

MS called the Xbox One such a failure and it nearly killed the Xbox brand until Phil saved it. These are MS’ words on the matter. There’s no debating this.

You forget, PS3 was a failed system despite selling 85 millions because it took all the profits from the PS1/2 eras.

It isn’t about making sacrifices. They haven’t done anything to improve Xbox brand worldwide since the 360-era outside of making deals for GamePass. And going by these numbers, it aren’t working.
 
MS called the Xbox One such a failure and it nearly killed the Xbox brand until Phil saved it. These are MS’ words on the matter. There’s no debating this.

You forget, PS3 was a failed system despite selling 85 millions because it took all the profits from the PS1/2 eras.

It isn’t about making sacrifices. They haven’t done anything to improve Xbox brand worldwide since the 360-era outside of making deals for GamePass. And going by these numbers, it aren’t working.
This was at the beginning of 2014 when Nadella became CEO, looked at Xbox business and wasn't impressed at all even questioning why Microsoft was in this market, but his vision change quickly, still in 2014 he approved the Mojang's acquisition for $2.5 billion.

Xbox One was a down for Microsoft because it sold less than 360, but still managed to sell a decent amount and didn't bleed billions like the first years of PS3.

During One's gen, Microsoft game business hit $10 billion revenue for the first time and Phil Spencer said in a interview about how this made executives look with more interest for the game business for the first time.
 
Why does Microsoft treat streaming as some sort of magic superweapon? Nintendo and Sony could easily just make a streaming service as well if that is so superior to just selling games, but they don't. Its funny that the only reason why Microsoft chopse a streaming gaming model was that they failed competing with the classic model, so they viewed streaming as the only way to stay in the game, and now we are all expected to see it as some magic weapon that will lead them to victory.

If streaming games was so attractive to all consumers why aren't they taking market shares from Sony ever since they started their streaming superweapon? You would think that everyone would jump ship from Sony to the gamepass superweapon already.
 
This was at the beginning of 2014 when Nadella became CEO, looked at Xbox business and wasn't impressed at all even questioning why Microsoft was in this market, but his vision change quickly, still in 2014 he approved the Mojang's acquisition for $2.5 billion.

Xbox One was a down for Microsoft because it sold less than 360, but still managed to sell a decent amount and didn't bleed billions like the first years of PS3.

During One's gen, Microsoft game business hit $10 billion revenue for the first time and Phil Spencer said in a interview about how this made executives look with more interest for the game business for the first time.

We can go into detail, but the fact remains, Xbox One is seen by MS as a failed console and I take what they say on the matter. You don’t have Phil saying ‘we lost the most important generation’ if he saw the Xbox One as successful.
 
According to Julien Chieze, the gap is no longer 90-10% but 93-7% currently in favor of PS5.

Remember, Oscar Lemaire communicated less than a month ago a gap of 90-10% in favor of PS5.

2023 in France:
PS5 – 93%
XBS – 7%


2016 LTD in France:
PS4 - 1.06M - 77%
XBO - 0.31M - 23%
 
There was that slide saying their target for the 2nd half of the XBS cycle. Iirc they say a similar LTD 58M, with the down case being 54M.
Sounds like they're hitting their targets, then.
We also have stuff like them wanting hardware revenue to double by FY30, or 60M Xbox GP and GPU subs by FY30 (as well as PC GP subs 30M)
This has to include cloud-only users, otherwise the numbers don't make much sense.
 
Sounds like they're hitting their targets, then.

Unlikely considering how much XBS is falling behind XB1 in US and UK.

This has to include cloud-only users, otherwise the numbers don't make much sense.

Nope, thats how much they wanted or expected GP to perform. We have already see how wildly Xbox has missed GP targets:
  • 35M for end of a fiscal year -> result was 25M
  • 10M PC GP target -> result was 3.3M
FY30 was meant to be:
  • 59M Xbox + GPU
  • 30M PC GP
  • 21M Cloud GP
  • 110M total
 
Unlikely considering how much XBS is falling behind XB1 in US and UK.
It's close enough to hit at least the lower bound of the target. I also think it's unlikely that XBS and XB1 will have the exact same sales curve (massive drop of sales in the second half of the gen).
Nope, thats how much they wanted or expected GP to perform. We have already see how wildly Xbox has missed GP targets:
  • 35M for end of a fiscal year -> result was 25M
  • 10M PC GP target -> result was 3.3M
FY30 was meant to be:
  • 59M Xbox + GPU
  • 30M PC GP
  • 21M Cloud GP
  • 110M total
Considering their console sales targets, these GP numbers only make sense with the recent Gamepass re-structuring in mind, which means they at least hit their console targets. We'll see about PC and Cloud.
 
Considering their console sales targets, these GP numbers only make sense with the recent Gamepass re-structuring in mind, which means they at least hit their console targets. We'll see about PC and Cloud.

This is pre Gold -> Core.
A simple name change doesn't somehow make them 10M closer to their targets.
 
It's close enough to hit at least the lower bound of the target. I also think it's unlikely that XBS and XB1 will have the exact same sales curve (massive drop of sales in the second half of the gen).

This time around the massive drop of sales came at the first 1/3 of the gen... So I really don't see them selling more than 50 million units of the consoles when all is said and done.
 
People have to remember that the biggest loss Microsoft have had this gen is that even though they bought Activision Blizzard they had to agree to continue let Sony and even Nintendo now get CoD games, the only thing that could have quickly turned things around for Xbox was quickly removing any future installments of all Activision Blizzard games from PS ecosystem. That would have forced all the many players of those franchises on PS ecosystem to move towards Xbox and gamepass instead.

Now nothing of that happened, which means that such players can and will continue to use Playstation instead of Xbox. People aren't going to abandon PS for Xbox just because they can get the same games they have on PS on gamespass instead, the only way to make them jump over is by removing CoD from PS all together.
 
People have to remember that the biggest loss Microsoft have had this gen is that even though they bought Activision Blizzard they had to agree to continue let Sony and even Nintendo now get CoD games, the only thing that could have quickly turned things around for Xbox was quickly removing any future installments of all Activision Blizzard games from PS ecosystem. That would have forced all the many players of those franchises on PS ecosystem to move towards Xbox and gamepass instead.

Now nothing of that happened, which means that such players can and will continue to use Playstation instead of Xbox. People aren't going to abandon PS for Xbox just because they can get the same games they have on PS on gamespass instead, the only way to make them jump over is by removing CoD from PS all together.

Yeah, people seem to be betting too much on COD being day one on gamepass. When in reality $70 a year is still less than the $200(?) Gamepass costs. And that's not counting the cost of the console and the hassle that moving to a new ecosystem is, especially for a MP game.
 
Yeah, people seem to be betting too much on COD being day one on gamepass. When in reality $70 a year is still less than the $200(?) Gamepass costs. And that's not counting the cost of the console and the hassle that moving to a new ecosystem is, especially for a MP game.

By the time CoD hits gamepass it’ll be even more expensive so it’s just not realistic it would ever work out that way. Most of my friends only play COD and they pretty much have it on auto-pay every year. They don’t even think about dropping 70 on it, and a lot of them pay for ps plus and don’t even acknowledge the ‘free’ games they get on it.

People in these spaces tend to look at gamepass through an enthusiast lens and not a casual one. Most people don’t want another expensive subscription service on their monthly statements.
 
people aren't taking into account the severe shortages for both PS5 and XBS at the start of the gen, that is going to affect their sales targets

the backend of the generation should show stronger sales than previous gens and the fact that generations are starting to look more stretched out than previous eras, way too early to call anything, especially with switch 2 likely taking a chunk of that pie, how sales will ultimately look is largely unknown right now
Microsoft seems to have overestimated streaming, we know that tv streaming like Disney +, Netflix, HBO Max etc all show major profitability problems over time. So i don't see why they think their gaming streaming strategy should lead to them to kill off all their competitors in the long run which they seems to be betting everything off.

Another problem is that they can't even make full use of them buying up studios because they still have to let games like CoD come out on competitor platforms, which leads to people not having to abandon Playstation to continue playing major releases like CoD, the whole point of buying out studios should be to have to force people to jump from the much more popular Playstation to Xbox to continue to play the major games they use their Playstation to play today, but now people can continue to enjoy those games on Playstation which means no change in the status quo anyway. In fact it seems to get worse for Microsoft, because soon even Nintendo players will get to enjoy CoD games, so their situation gets worse with even larger groups of players getting to enjoy Microsoft owned games without having to buy Xbox hardware. Gamepass has already proven that its not a main driver anyway, with Microsoft logic of how attractive they think gamepass is people should already during this generation have jumped ship from non gamepass Playstation to Xbox, that isn't happening so gamepass is simply not the attractive gamechanger that Microsoft have convinced themselves that it is.
the fruits of GP won't be obvious in the short term, just like streaming, it will take awhile before they can potentially reap the rewards

GP might not kill off their competitors but it can potentially balance out the competition somewhat for MS, as that is realistically they can hope for in the near future, but ultimately GP is the long game and it is far too early to call anything yet
 
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This is pre Gold -> Core.
A simple name change doesn't somehow make them 10M closer to their targets.
The numbers don't make sense under that assumption. They can't target a maximum of 59m consoles sold and then hope for 59m Gamepass subs on Xbox.
This time around the massive drop of sales came at the first 1/3 of the gen... So I really don't see them selling more than 50 million units of the consoles when all is said and done.
I'd wait until the end of the year before declaring a massive drop in sales.
 
GP might not kill off their competitors but it can potentially balance out the competition somewhat for MS, as that is realistically they can hope for in the near future, but ultimately GP is the long game and it is far too early to call anything yet

I think it is not early.
Gamepass is around 6,5 years on the market. And it did not grew as MS expected.

I'd wait until the end of the year before declaring a massive drop in sales.

Even before November, Xbox has massive drop in sales globally since holidays 2022 and till now ( with all data sales provided) . I can't imagine how holiday 2023 will fix some thing regarding Xbox ( US alone won't save it if Xbox will sell only there well) Reading some hotUKdeals posts on ERA, Xbox is bleeding marketshare in UK. But of course, we will wait for Gibiz info

 
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