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Do you think Playstation will reach its 25m target for the FY ?

Do you think Playstation will reach its 25m target for the FY ?

  • Yes, it will sell 25m !

    Votes: 17 12.4%

  • No, but it will barely miss it (24m-25m)

    Votes: 28 20.4%

  • No, it will miss it by a fair margin (<24m)

    Votes: 92 67.2%
  • Total voters
    137
PlayStation Historically :

  • Best Q1 PS2: 4.59 million in FY2002
  • Best Q2 PS2: 8.78 million in FY2003
  • Best Q3 PS4: 9.70 million in FY2016
  • Best Q4 PS2: 6.08 million in FY2004 PS5 : 6.3 millions in FY2022
 
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The only country where the new PS5 slim is available to pre-order is Japan with a release date of November 10th.

No other country/region has a specific release date, but it seems that it will release on the same date as Japan with MWIII.

Europe might get it in January/February with the other regions to follow.

It seems that they still have some stock of the fat and will try to be “aggressive” this holiday season.
 
Wait so the best Q3 in Playstation's history is 9.7 million? Wow so PS has never been above 10 million, that is honestly surprising. Makes the 25 million fiscal year very difficult without PS5 not only pulling off the best Q3 in PS's history but the best Q3 in all of history.
 
Astrogamer said:
Best Q4 should be FY3/2023 since that was 6.3 million PS5.
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You're right about Q4 👍

a8xlWd0.png
 
They have potential as they are doing crazy discounts and planning to do more of those. Plus SM2 launch. And COD bundles.
 
Undead Warrior said:
Pumping stock prices is apparently way more important than keeping your business sustainable. I expect a lot of chatter around record "revenue" numbers (inflated, of course) to distract any naysayers, regardless of whethee or not they hit 25M.
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Stock prices are normally based off yearly numbers if you do a multiples calculation. If you do a DCF, none of what they are doing on its own is going to pump the stock price any reasonable degree to anyone who isn't dumb lol

Whether you agree with the strat or not, this isn't stock pumping.
 
Phenom08 said:
Wait so the best Q3 in Playstation's history is 9.7 million? Wow so PS has never been above 10 million, that is honestly surprising. Makes the 25 million fiscal year very difficult without PS5 not only pulling off the best Q3 in PS's history but the best Q3 in all of history.
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Yes because in the PS1 and PS2 days they reported production shipments (manufactured) and not sold-in (shipped to retailers), if they reported sold-in back in those days then the peak Q3's of PS1 and PS2 would have definitely sold-in 10 million or more. I have the PS1 and PS2 production shipments here:

IDpfNL1.png
 
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Luminoth 4545 said:
Yes because in the PS1 and PS2 days they reported production shipments (manufactured) and not sold-in (shipped to retailers), if they reported sold-in back in those days then the peak Q3's of PS1 and PS2 would have definitely sold-in 10 million or more. I have the PS1 and PS2 production shipments here:

naKyeaT.png
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Wait, don't you have to manufacture consoles before you can ship them? Basically shouldn't production figures be higher than the shipped/sell in? I'm confused on why Sony's figures would be higher if they reported sell in when manufactured figures to me seems like they would be higher.
 
Phenom08 said:
Wait, don't you have to manufacture consoles before you can ship them? Basically shouldn't production figures be higher than the shipped/sell in? I'm confused on why Sony's figures would be higher if they reported sell in when manufactured figures to me seems like they would be higher.
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Production mostly just distributes the numbers differently, you're probably going to see most of what would've shipped in Q3 distributed more evenly between Q2/3 for example.

Also "production shipments" wasn't just manufactured units but could also include things like stored components and units ordered for manufacturing. It was a pretty nebulous definition that could be pretty deceptive when compared 1:1, especially when everyone else (Nintendo, Sega, Microsoft, Bandai, SNK, NEC, etc) used sell in or sometimes sell through.
 
Phenom08 said:
Wait, don't you have to manufacture consoles before you can ship them? Basically shouldn't production figures be higher than the shipped/sell in? I'm confused on why Sony's figures would be higher if they reported sell in when manufactured figures to me seems like they would be higher.
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maybe production numbers are split more between different quarters while sell-in is more concentrated in a single quarter

not sure how one can definitely conclude either way though as it would just be speculation and a quick look at the results shows not much difference between either reporting method
 
Evilms said:
You're right about Q4 👍

a8xlWd0.png
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A few considerations that may be wrong:

Q4 will 100% be down YoY as 6.3m was the result of Sony meeting pent up demand that is no longer here.
Q3 will almost surely not be higher than 11m since historically the roof has been there or there about for multiple consoles.

With that in mind, Sony needs to ship 22 million consoles in 3 quarters. Assuming 5.5m in Q4 (exremely generous), 10.5m in Q3 that would still required 6m to have been shipped this quarter.



So I'd say that if Q2 is:

- sub 5m, then they will not hit the target.
- between 5m-6m, it's unlikely but still doable with industry record sales in Q3 and Q4.
- over 6m, they are on track.
 
Joseki said:
A few considerations that may be wrong:

Q4 will 100% be down YoY as 6.3m was the result of Sony meeting pent up demand that is no longer here.
Q3 will almost surely not be higher than 11m since historically the roof has been there or there about for multiple consoles.

With that in mind, Sony needs to ship 22 million consoles in 3 quarters. Assuming 5.5m in Q4 (exremely generous), 10.5m in Q3 that would still required 6m to have been shipped this quarter.



So I'd say that if Q2 is:

- sub 5m, then they will not hit the target.
- between 5m-6m, it's unlikely but still doable with industry record sales in Q3 and Q4.
- over 6m, they are on track.
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At first sight, it seems impossible that they will reach 25 million target, but who knows.

We'll have a better idea after next Thursday when we'll know the second-quarter sales to see whether they're still far from that target or not.

Q3 sales will also weigh heavily in the balance. She should do something like this:

Q1: 3.3
Q2: 6.0 / 6.9
Q3: 9.8 / 9.3
Q4: 5.9 / 5.5
 
MegaXZero said:
I’m still thinking we need to know how low SIE will go price wise if they still want to get this done. The price promotions during the summer coupled with the low quarter 1 showed that demand has slowed from the height of it getting into stock and that this wasn’t forecasted. The delayed launch of the slim along with them saying they are cutting hardware profit forecasts also speaks to this.

They could have two record breaking quarters upcoming for them off of price promotions, 5 and 12 million for Q2 and Q3. That Q3 would eclipse anything ps4 has done IIRC…but that still probably wouldn’t be enough if Q4 went back to regular prices, as they’d need another 4.7 million and postholiday stock would still be sitting there. Q2 will illuminate a lot though.

I will say there was a price increase in the US with the digital sku. But I see that at least with Japan, trying to cut the knees of exports and tourists does have a bit more standing in terms of negatives for selling overall.
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That would be better than the best Q3 for Switch which is at 11.57 mil. If PS5 can ship 11 mil for Q3, that would be better than the second best Q3 for Switch which is at 10.81. Considering Nintendo usually sells the most units during Q3 and previous Playstation high for Q3 was 9.7 mil, it would be an amazing achievement for PS5 to sell over 10 mil in Q3, let along 11 or 12.
 
that table basically says it's sure very likely ps5 will overtake ps4 soon. although not by a huge amount in % terms. if ps4 shipped 20m and they project 25 for ps5, and they are iirc 1.8 behind. even if they miss and only ship 23, they would be 1.2 ahead.
 
Evilms said:
For sure 6-7 it's very complicated, but not impossible.
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That would basically require sell through to be ahead of Q4 of last FY given they aren’t playing catch up with shipped and need to get through current stock of old model. Unless they overship going into the next quarter.

IIRC sell through we see from trackers isn’t at the level of Q4 of last year.
 
SoonyXboneUhh said:
Has to be. Will be.
No way they can sell a 1P game bundle more expensive.
It cost Sony less. That would look like very poor value otherwise.
A brand new 3P game for $499 vs an older 1P game for $549 makes no sense.
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I don't think the question is whether it will be more than $499
 
Phenom08 said:
Wait, don't you have to manufacture consoles before you can ship them? Basically shouldn't production figures be higher than the shipped/sell in? I'm confused on why Sony's figures would be higher if they reported sell in when manufactured figures to me seems like they would be higher.
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This is because many of the console's sold in Q3 would be manufactured in Q2, so Q2 manufactured numbers are much higher than sold-in and Q3's manufactured numbers are much lower than sold-in.
 
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