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Do you believe Elden Ring will reach Bandai Namco's forecast of 4M units sold by March 31st, 2022 ?

How much do you think Elden Ring will send by the end of March 2022 ?

  • It'll be far below BN goal (<3m)

    Votes: 3 2.4%
  • It won't be very close to reaching it (3m-3.5)

    Votes: 5 4.0%
  • It will fall a bit below it (3.5m-4m)

    Votes: 8 6.4%
  • It'll reach it (4m-4.5m)

    Votes: 26 20.8%
  • I will confortably beat it (4.5m-5m)

    Votes: 33 26.4%
  • It will reach new heights for BN and FS (5m+)

    Votes: 50 40.0%

  • Total voters
    125
  • Poll closed .
Just reached a CCU of 950k (!!!) in the SECOND weekend after launch (!!!!!!) UNPRECEDENTED
Wow.
Normally only multilayer games or games no one knew that become super hits increase after the first week.

PUBG, Valheim, Fall Guys. Those type of games.
Incredible.
 
i think it has potential to reach 25MI+ lifetime if they manage to keep the momentum going releasing some dlc's, fixing stability and performance issues and etc
 
Those CCU numbers today are insane. This game feels like it's going from big success to bonafide cultural phenomenom at this rate.
 
I legit think this thing might hit 10 million in its first full week

Which is uh, absolutely insane. Steam alone is MILLIONS of units and that's not even accounting for consoles
 
I don't have the exact data but I assume its following what any extremely large (100 hours+) RPG is going to do in terms of player retention: since these games take so long to play and have very dedicated playerbases, they hold very well for months before most have completed the campaign. Souls is even more unique in that it has a big community that holds discovery of items and lore highly, so there is major incentive to play when things have not been found and then there's the PvP and Coop aaspects.

Hoping 20M LTD is in the cards. Always knew FROM had the potential to match Bethesda and CDPR in making mega hit, intricate, RPGs.
 
I legit think this thing might hit 10 million in its first full week

Which is uh, absolutely insane. Steam alone is MILLIONS of units and that's not even accounting for consoles
The launch has been so big I'll be absolutely shocked if it hasn't reached well above 10M in the first week. Heck, it might have done it in the first weekend.
 
Very curious what this does LT.

Let me also say a game like BOTW basically tripled LoZTP( the previous highest selling Zelda ). It’s possible this could reach 30M+, especially considering it’s on like 5platforms lol. Will it? Idk, but it’s nowhere near impossible.
 
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Demon's Souls and the first Dark Souls had great word of mouth because many experienced this kind of multiplayer and hidden, fascinating lore for the first time. It could happen again with Elden Ring.
 
Very curious what this does LT.

Let me also say a game like BOTW basically tripled LoZTP( the previous highest selling Zelda ). It’s possible this could reach 30M+, especially considering it’s on like 5platforms lol. Will it? Idk, but it’s nowhere near impossible.

Horizon Zero Dawn reached 20M on a single platform. The roof for popular games is entirely different to 20 years ago.
 
That 20M includes PC sales, though your overall point stands.
Ando significantly more than half of those were sold at extremely budget prices. It'll have legs as a $20-30 game but it's full-price sales should likely drop off a cliff. Sony has been pretty slow to lower prices so far on PS5 games though so it will probably be another year or two at least until it approaches that price.
 
That 20M includes PC sales, though your overall point stands.

True, but bear in mind HZD PC sales are in the ballpark of 1-2M. It will likely end 20M+ on PS4/5 alone, its still charting top 10 in PSN charts for instance.

Ando significantly more than half of those were sold at extremely budget prices. It'll have legs as a $20-30 game but it's full-price sales should likely drop off a cliff. Sony has been pretty slow to lower prices so far on PS5 games though so it will probably be another year or two at least until it approaches that price.

There is no data to indicate how much is being sold at what price from what I have seen and nearly all games have price drops. Achieving 20M or close to it on a single platform for a new IP is unheard of.

I can only think of Pokemon being able to do it.
 
The discount trajectory of Sekiro was extremely slow, the game has never gone for less than 50% off on Steam (by the official listing at least), I don't think discounts should be a detriment to the LTD units sold ER can achieve, if anything it'll be an accomplishment, most games get cheaper faster...
 
True, but bear in mind HZD PC sales are in the ballpark of 1-2M. It will likely end 20M+ on PS4/5 alone, its still charting top 10 in PSN charts for instance.



There is no data to indicate how much is being sold at what price from what I have seen and nearly all games have price drops. Achieving 20M or close to it on a single platform for a new IP is unheard of.

I can only think of Pokemon being able to do it.
I'm not saying it's not impressive. I'm saying HFW is not going to achieve those numbers if it retains full price in the upcoming years.
 

ER behind Division in biggest debut in EU. Division did $330M in its first week globally, one can approximate that as 5M sold. ER might be 6-8M by the end of the FY.
The proportion of the market that Europe made up for those games in launch month could be very different, estimated revenue sell-through is very different to units shipped.

But the main difference here to point out is Elden Ring launched on Feb 25th so we are looking purely at launch week here. While the division launched on the 6th of March in 2016. So it's 4 days vs 26 days, or in other words The Division had 3 full weeks worth of more sales counting into these European monthly charts after its $330m global launch week. Elden Ring could well have done way better than The Division in launch week.
 
Elden Ring isn't properly a new IP. I Love the game and the souls games, I feel nobody would argue if elder ring was dark souls 4.
Yeah, I personally agree that Elden Ring isn't entirely a new IP given just how similar it is to Dark Souls, but it isn't called "Dark Souls: Elden Ring", so therefore it is "technically" a new IP.
 
Thought it would sell good, but not this good given the expectations from BN. Wonderful!
 
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