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Since this is Install Base, I will stick more to the financial analysts side of this article:
The full article is here.
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Several Summer updates, promotions and a Big announcement!
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Developers and Analysts Sound Off: Does the Next-Gen Nintendo Switch Need to Happen in 2024?
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The article is an interesting read, I recommend it.
Main sticking points are:
Main sticking points are:
- Nintendo is in control of its timing, for several reason:
- No direct competitor (like Sony vs MS)
- Huge reserves in cash
- Switch sales remain good, and even incredible given its age.
- Backward compatibility is a must to ensure a smooth transition, and allow both Nintendo platforms to be supported for years easily.
I don’t see them going another year without a new console or update, at the same time the switch continues to be a cash cow and it doesn’t make that much sense to kill it if most people that are buying evergreen titles for it are content. I do think they need to update in order to maintain healthy relationships with their 3rd party partners though. The gap is becoming too noticeable.
On the other hand the enthusiasts who complain the most, spend the least amount of money on gaming.
On the other hand the enthusiasts who complain the most, spend the least amount of money on gaming.
consoles are never killed off when the successors launch. how fast they die correlate to the uptake by consumer, see the DS for example. the DS was meant to be a "third pillar" but is shot out of the gate like a firecracker, killing the GBA in its wake despite the GBA still being very healthy. so I don't think Switch sales has any bearing nor will it kill their cash cow if Drake is launched.
the most important thing is for Nintendo to ensure they have hardware that can be easily supported by third parties. everything we know about Drake points to that, and Drake seems to be completed itself. it feels like a 2024 launch is in the cards to me
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Most important thing is always to have a strong launch year lineup. Especially for Nintendo because historically they've been really bad at shaking off year 1 stigmas.
Also PS4, XB1, WiiU, and DS all had their production end fairly swiftly aftet their successor launched. If the new system is backwards compatible there's no reason not to try and force as many people onto the next gen as possible. Install base is crucial towards convincing 3rd parties to support a platform. So you don't want users getting the old gen if they can settle for the new. (Also it simplifies manufacturing to have fewer skus.)
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Whatever it is Nintendo does, they need to have a game launching with the system that makes it the "signature" title for the platform.
Every time they try to launch some ho-hum game along with it, the platform fails. Looking at the Wii U and the Game Cube. Not that the launch games weren't fun, but they were not SMW, Zelda TP/Wii Sports or BOTW tier.
My bet is that it will be Mario Kart 9 for the switch successor.
Every time they try to launch some ho-hum game along with it, the platform fails. Looking at the Wii U and the Game Cube. Not that the launch games weren't fun, but they were not SMW, Zelda TP/Wii Sports or BOTW tier.
My bet is that it will be Mario Kart 9 for the switch successor.
The DS didn't kill the GBA, Nintendo actively ended the GBAs run to push people towards the DS.
GBA was a beast and could have continued for a while, especially compared to the ugly Phat DS. They obviously made the right call in the end sacrificing the final GBA years to make sure the DS could grow into their best selling system ever but we never have seen a successful systems like the being GBA cut off this fast from a platform holder.
It sold in 3 years what most systems don't sell in their lifetime and the brand was strong. It just didn't have any future and establishing the DS brand would have been more difficult with the Gameboy still around, and still getting new games.
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Do I think they could wait until 2025? Yes, absolutely.
Do I think they should? No, absolutely not. As it is, there's a few windows of opportunity to grow their business position that could very well be closing on them by the time 2024 rolls into view, 2025 would just ensure that all of them have.
Do I think they should? No, absolutely not. As it is, there's a few windows of opportunity to grow their business position that could very well be closing on them by the time 2024 rolls into view, 2025 would just ensure that all of them have.
If Nintendo is going to stay with their plan of having roughly the same power profile span 2 generations (GameCube/Wii, Wii U/Switch) the next leap has to be prepared to take on not just PS5 but PS6 and potentially the early days of PS7. Luckily controller layout hasn't changed much since dual analogs were introduced and displays have gelled around a standard aspect ratio. Everything else is just tweaking of values.
Ray-tracing and 120fps should be enough to go into battle for the next 10-12 years. Boost the pixel density and reduce the weight and they can entertain the idea of virtual reality.
Ray-tracing and 120fps should be enough to go into battle for the next 10-12 years. Boost the pixel density and reduce the weight and they can entertain the idea of virtual reality.
Best case scenario would be having as transition phase of 18 months were both system are viable with the goal of having a large enough install base by 2025 to justify big exclusive games.
So yeah Fall 24 would be a smart release date, not everyone will get their hands on the new system that Holiday season or have the money for it so the OG Switch will still be important piece to the puzzle and will stick around as an entry level device.
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Q4 2024 seems like the perfect time for a launch, they likely will have a lot of notable series ready to go with new games in the first 2 years of the system (3D Mario, Mario Kart, Animal Crossing, Smash, 2D Metroid - all games that haven't had a new installment since 2021 or earlier). I just don't really see a benefit to holding out longer than that, most of the flagship franchises have been exhausted on Switch 1 and there's not much room for growth there.
Q4 2024 launch seems right to me, with a very very slim chance of H1 2024.
I suppose a 2025 launch is possible but it would require that Nintendo has a fairly strong 2024 lineup for Switch which seems very difficult - at this point almost every relevant Nintendo IP has some notable presence on Switch.
I suppose a 2025 launch is possible but it would require that Nintendo has a fairly strong 2024 lineup for Switch which seems very difficult - at this point almost every relevant Nintendo IP has some notable presence on Switch.
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Nintendo's 2024 line up largely isn't going to change regardless of when the Switch 2 launches. All you'd really miss is the couple of Switch 2 launch exclusives that won't be cross gen. Even if Switch 2 is 1st half 2024 (but also after the end of the fiscal year in March), I can't imagine Nintendo is going to leave the current Switch out to dry.
Nintendo doesn't need a big install base to justify big exclusive games, quite on the contrary. They will release those exclusives to help building the install base.
What I meant is that the Switch can have a slower software lineup in 2024 if the Switch 2 is launching in 2024 - Switch can probably go like 3/4 months without a big launch if Nintendo is actively marketing/promoting Switch 2. If Switch ends up with a strong 2024 lineup even if Switch 2 launches in 2024, then that's even better, but not totally necessary.
I didnt say anything about Nintendo, in general big games will usually arrive once the install base has grown a bit.
The big part of their lineup will release in 2025 if its a Fall 24 launch, they are not gonna release 10 games on a system with an install base of sub 5m.
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MK is a mega seller and many Switch owner bought it along the way, but it is not a good Must-Have-Launch title that creates attention. It's like launching a new console with a 2D Mario, it's just a nice I will surely buy it someday, but not something I pay 400€ to play.
But I think with Metroid Prime and a new 3D Mario at launch it should have a similar effect as BotW.
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The only reason for a Switch 2 sooner rather than later is bigger third parties (and people who care about those third-party games). Imo from the bigger third parties' point of view (to which group maybe the "anonymous developer" belongs), 2024 is already way too late, but Nintendo apparently didn't care (or didn't care enough).
With big third parties (and people who care about them) being apparently mostly a non-factor for Nintendo management, as long as they can churn out games, there is no specific reason for Nintendo to launch specifically in 2024, they could also launch in 2025, 2026 or whenever they feel like it.
With big third parties (and people who care about them) being apparently mostly a non-factor for Nintendo management, as long as they can churn out games, there is no specific reason for Nintendo to launch specifically in 2024, they could also launch in 2025, 2026 or whenever they feel like it.
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Or, like everyone else, perhaps there was a COVID-based delay in the timetable. I think, with how 3rd-party release timetables got messed around with thanks to that, Nintendo will be afforded a bit of leeway. But they really cannot take that for granted and push further back than what is understandable. So long as PS4 SKUs are still on the table for a significant number of titles, they've got some runway, but I doubt publishers will wait indefinitely to make those plans when they would still want to see real-world sales performance before moving further forward.
Nintendo definitely doesn't have this "we don't care about third party games" mentality. they want those games because it means they don't have to carry a system by themselves (all of their worst systems, they had to do this).
that said, Drake will only keep the gap that Switch had with the other consoles (or rather, be slightly better thanks to cpu and ram amount). so I don't expect the rate of major third party games to change all that much. at best, we'd get less late ports
that said, Drake will only keep the gap that Switch had with the other consoles (or rather, be slightly better thanks to cpu and ram amount). so I don't expect the rate of major third party games to change all that much. at best, we'd get less late ports
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Logically what you say makes sense. And it definitely seemed the case in the first years of the Switch. But by that same logic Switch 2 should have already been out.
Why do they have some runway as long as there are PS4 versions coming out? Almost none of these games (possibly none at all) are getting a Switch version these days, and it has been this way for some time now.
As someone who watches the eShop closely week after week for years now for upcoming releases, I can tell you that quality-wise (not quantity wise) from third parties this is the worst it has ever been, by far.
maybe. for a while now, 2023 did look to be on the table. if they fast-tracked development like they did Switch, it could have made it. but being bespoke throws a wrench into things something fierce.
But...most of Nintendo exclusive games are made by Nintendo itself? Maybe I misunderstood you, but big exclusives by Nintendo should come launch year, they won't wait 18 months to release them because Nintendo exclusives are the system sellers itself. Third parties are another history.
It's not like they had another choice early on with Switch, their only other viable systems for HD content has been dead for years by the Switch released.
Them having exclusives around launch doesn't mean that they wouldnt wanna have a higher install base 18-24 months in when more Drake exclusive including mainline Pokemon titles would be hitting. It's weird that we even have to argue this point since I would assume it's common sense.
Nintendo exclusives won't necessarily be Drake exclusives.
Drake can and will likely share content with the OG Switch, there is no reason to think that Nintendo would immediately abandon the massive Switch audience for everything but things that absolutely can't be realized on Switch.
It's not like Nintendo can't launch Drake exclusives while keeping support on the Switch for a few years. Obviously is better to have a higher install base but I'm not arguing against that. I just disagree with the notion that next hardware and Switch will share all of the Nintendo exclusives because Nintendo can't afford not doing it. The main selling power of Nintendo is their exclusive games, and the public will follow the next hardware that will have them.
this late in the Switch's lifecycle, leaving behind people who jumped in late doesn't strike me as a big loss. especially with how many evergreens Nintendo has in their catalog. people will be buying Tears of the Kingdom after Drake releases after all.
whatever cross-gen games Nintendo has, will probably be prioritized for Drake. Metroid Prime 4 is still one I expect. 3D Mario, given that was Koizumi's thing, I can see being designed, ground up for next gen hardware, even despite it starting development long before hardware was finalized
whatever cross-gen games Nintendo has, will probably be prioritized for Drake. Metroid Prime 4 is still one I expect. 3D Mario, given that was Koizumi's thing, I can see being designed, ground up for next gen hardware, even despite it starting development long before hardware was finalized
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I can see a world where Nintendo intended to launch it late 2024, but delayed it to early 2025 because their software wasn't ready, or them, having seen the sales trajectory of the Switch 2-3 years ago, deciding sometime in 2025 would be a good time to launch it.
I'm not gonna rule it out, but I don't see it myself. many of their big studios haven't had a game in a good long while
- 3D Mario team absent since 2017
- Retro's MP4 can be poised to be cross-gen
- the next Fire Emblem should be soon and that can be positioned as a cross-gen game
- Animal Crossing New Horizons was 2020
- Xenoblade 3 was 2022, and while Future Redeemed was this year, they have had other products done in the meantime
- Mario Party Superstars was 2021 and 3 years after Super Mario Party
- lord knows what the Mario Kart team are up to; Booster Course Pass wouldn't take up the whole staff
Mario Kart is a lot more popular and acclaimed than 2D Mario. Unless the next entry is very underwhelming, it can easily be a suitable launch title for the next Switch (not saying it will be, but it can be).
Yeah, Mario Kart should be a launch title for the next system (or at least a month after launch with 3D Mario on launch day around Fall 2024. And then Animal Crossing in Spring 2025 followed by Pokemon Gen 10 in Holiday 2025.
Every Nintendo console tries to launch alongside a new Mario game (nes, snes, n64, gamecube, wii-u), the Switch and the Wii are the two exceptions, they launched with Zelda (botw, twilight princess), but the main Mario team has been working on a new 3D Mario for a while now, and it's almost certainly it's gonna be a launch game.
Mario Kart 9 might already be completed, and I expect them to use that game like they did on the Switch, as a supplement game a few months after launch.
On the Switch, they did BOTW, Mario Kart, Splatoon, and Odyssey in one year, and it was such a strong lineup it turned Nintendo on its head, they are most certainly gonna do something similar.
I think they are gonna release 3D Mario, Mario Kart, and possibly Metroid Prime 4 in the launch year, and then in the second year, release a new Animal Crossing and Pokemon and send the Switch 2 into orbit.
3D Mario would be close to ready or already done for Drake.
I assume MKX is close to ready for the first 18 months.
2D Zelda and TOTK Deluxe Edition are probably ready.
Prime 4 and maybe the Peach game as cross gen.
Smaller games as well as partnerships.
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The continued presence of PS4 SKUs keeps the technical floor low enough to very easily (and cheaply) accommodate the next Nintendo hardware in production of modern games. The moment that stops being the case entirely means that the technical floor for projects has risen and thus the cost to produce ports, which will diminish the possibility of continuing to receive them.
Given that PS4 SKUs have not been netting much in terms of sales in the West since the end of 2021 and certainly have not been setting Japanese charts on fire, the continued presence of such SKUs through to 2024 points to the possibility that publishers are intentionally keeping the technical floor low to better accommodate Nintendo's next hardware. When that stops being true more often than not, then that possibility is gone completely and things remain exactly as they are now.
We'll also be due for a new Mario Party, so I could see that being a Holiday 2025 title. Imagine Switch getting 3D Mario, Mario Kart, Animal Crossing, Pokemon, Mario Party and others between a 2024 launch and 2025 holiday season.
Still hoping for Late Q1 or Q2 for Switch 2 release there. And then when holiday comes. Stock will be ample while when i get it in 2025. The price would have been stable and hopefully far far away from dumb dumb scalper lol.
It would arguably be best for business if it releases in 2024. The Switch is in terminal decline, and I'd argue it's essential to keep their overall momentum going by releasing a new system. The only way the Switch 2 releases in 2025 is if the system and/or the games it needs are simply not ready to go next year. They are not going to delay it just to squeeze more out of the Switch. There is no good business reason for waiting any longer than necessary. The Switch is in decline. The longer Nintendo waits, the worse things will get.
On the hardware side of things, current projections have Switch hardware at 15M for the current fiscal year, a 16.5% decline from last fiscal year and a 48% decline from the Switch's peak year of FY2020-21. If Nintendo holds back on the Switch 2 until well into 2025 and the Switch drops to, say, 12M next fiscal year, that would make it the fifth-worst year for hardware shipments in the past 30 years. That's assuming they hit their target for this year. Things could end up being worse. What if they end up dropping to 10M next fiscal year in the absence of the Switch 2?
On the software side, things won't be as bad, but sales are still in decline. Software shipments for the current fiscal year are projected to be 180M units, a 16% drop from last fiscal year and a 23.4% decline from the FY2021-22 peak. If software sales in the 2024-25 fiscal year drop to, say, 140M units (a 22.2% drop), that wouldn't quite be close to the previous low of 75.34M units in the 2016-17 FY, but it would still be numerically closer to that low than to the Switch's peak, and would represent a drop of over 40%, or nearly 100M units, from the 2021-22 FY. And as with hardware, things could be worse. If they end up having to move the Switch 2 out to 2025, with nearly all their teams making games for the Switch 2, how many notable titles will the Switch be getting next year? Every game that's a likely contender for the Switch 2's opening window, like the next 3D Mario or Mario Kart 9, isn't going to be dropping next year. It's highly likely that Super Mario Wonder will be the last big title the Switch gets. It's definitely possible that the decline in software sales could accelerate.
The console market is cyclical, and as I said the Switch is in the "decline" part of the "grow-peak-decline" cycle. Console makers don't just wait until their old system is nearly dead to release the next one unless they have a good reason for doing so. Momentum is important. Getting a system out preferably no later than 3 or 4 years after a system clearly passes its peak is essential in keeping the inter-generation troughs from getting too low and keeping momentum solid. This is especially important now that Nintendo is a single-platform console maker. The Switch by itself cannot generate as much as what their handhelds and home consoles could do combined. Even with the N64 & GameCube running far behind the PS1 & PS2, Game Boy and GBA sales were enough to keep WW shipments above 20M every year from 1997 to 2005, with the Wii & DS kicking things into high gear. The 3DS—Wii U years were a very rough spot for Nintendo, hitting lows they hadn't seen since 1994 & 1995. The Switch did help right the ship, but by itself it only generated three years of 20M+ sales, and those years got a bit of an assist. With nothing else to fall back on, inter-generational transitions can get pretty rocky for Nintendo if they wait too long for a next-gen system.
You see the same thing with PlayStation and Xbox as well. Total worldwide calendar-year shipments of Sony hardware never dropped below 14M units in any year from 1997 to 2019, with an average of about 19.4M units per year during that 23-year span. That streak came to an end in 2020, but only because of... certain factors which resulted in both increased demand for and shortages of the PS4, which in turn resulted in rapid stock depletion, and the PS5's release in November wasn't enough to offset that. But the PS5's success has gotten them back to business as usual. You can see more or less the same thing with Xbox, even with the problems they've had post-360. While we don't have worldwide numbers, annual sales in the U.S. stayed above 4 million every year from 2006 to 2018, and, after a rough inter-generational transition that saw sales dip to just above 3M i bothn 2019 & 2020, got back above 4M in 2022.
Nintendo and their shareholders will not sustain continued, inevitable losses to revenues if they don't have to. Nintendo is a publicly-traded for-profit corporation. They're in this to maximize profits. And profits are down, and could face a surprisingly sharp drop if the the Switch 2 doesn't drop next year. Back when the Wii & DS were doing very good Nintendo was massively profitable, but by time they hit their transition to the next generation they were in a rough spot. They set a new record profit in FY2008-09, but just two years later, in FY2010-11 fiscal year, their net profit had declined by 66% from that peak. The 3DS had just debuted at the very end of that fiscal year, and the Wii U wasn't until the following year, so the woes those systems had weren't a factor, but declining Wii & DS sales were. That shows how quickly profits can drop in the face of declining sales.
I'm not saying the Switch 2 won't release in 2025, but Nintendo will not release it that year unless they simply cannot release it next year. A 2024 release simply makes more sense as it will reset the cycle and result in higher revenues next year, assuming it has a similar trajectory as the Switch and has some mega-blockbuster series that we haven't seen in a while released in the launch window.
On the hardware side of things, current projections have Switch hardware at 15M for the current fiscal year, a 16.5% decline from last fiscal year and a 48% decline from the Switch's peak year of FY2020-21. If Nintendo holds back on the Switch 2 until well into 2025 and the Switch drops to, say, 12M next fiscal year, that would make it the fifth-worst year for hardware shipments in the past 30 years. That's assuming they hit their target for this year. Things could end up being worse. What if they end up dropping to 10M next fiscal year in the absence of the Switch 2?
On the software side, things won't be as bad, but sales are still in decline. Software shipments for the current fiscal year are projected to be 180M units, a 16% drop from last fiscal year and a 23.4% decline from the FY2021-22 peak. If software sales in the 2024-25 fiscal year drop to, say, 140M units (a 22.2% drop), that wouldn't quite be close to the previous low of 75.34M units in the 2016-17 FY, but it would still be numerically closer to that low than to the Switch's peak, and would represent a drop of over 40%, or nearly 100M units, from the 2021-22 FY. And as with hardware, things could be worse. If they end up having to move the Switch 2 out to 2025, with nearly all their teams making games for the Switch 2, how many notable titles will the Switch be getting next year? Every game that's a likely contender for the Switch 2's opening window, like the next 3D Mario or Mario Kart 9, isn't going to be dropping next year. It's highly likely that Super Mario Wonder will be the last big title the Switch gets. It's definitely possible that the decline in software sales could accelerate.
The console market is cyclical, and as I said the Switch is in the "decline" part of the "grow-peak-decline" cycle. Console makers don't just wait until their old system is nearly dead to release the next one unless they have a good reason for doing so. Momentum is important. Getting a system out preferably no later than 3 or 4 years after a system clearly passes its peak is essential in keeping the inter-generation troughs from getting too low and keeping momentum solid. This is especially important now that Nintendo is a single-platform console maker. The Switch by itself cannot generate as much as what their handhelds and home consoles could do combined. Even with the N64 & GameCube running far behind the PS1 & PS2, Game Boy and GBA sales were enough to keep WW shipments above 20M every year from 1997 to 2005, with the Wii & DS kicking things into high gear. The 3DS—Wii U years were a very rough spot for Nintendo, hitting lows they hadn't seen since 1994 & 1995. The Switch did help right the ship, but by itself it only generated three years of 20M+ sales, and those years got a bit of an assist. With nothing else to fall back on, inter-generational transitions can get pretty rocky for Nintendo if they wait too long for a next-gen system.
You see the same thing with PlayStation and Xbox as well. Total worldwide calendar-year shipments of Sony hardware never dropped below 14M units in any year from 1997 to 2019, with an average of about 19.4M units per year during that 23-year span. That streak came to an end in 2020, but only because of... certain factors which resulted in both increased demand for and shortages of the PS4, which in turn resulted in rapid stock depletion, and the PS5's release in November wasn't enough to offset that. But the PS5's success has gotten them back to business as usual. You can see more or less the same thing with Xbox, even with the problems they've had post-360. While we don't have worldwide numbers, annual sales in the U.S. stayed above 4 million every year from 2006 to 2018, and, after a rough inter-generational transition that saw sales dip to just above 3M i bothn 2019 & 2020, got back above 4M in 2022.
Nintendo and their shareholders will not sustain continued, inevitable losses to revenues if they don't have to. Nintendo is a publicly-traded for-profit corporation. They're in this to maximize profits. And profits are down, and could face a surprisingly sharp drop if the the Switch 2 doesn't drop next year. Back when the Wii & DS were doing very good Nintendo was massively profitable, but by time they hit their transition to the next generation they were in a rough spot. They set a new record profit in FY2008-09, but just two years later, in FY2010-11 fiscal year, their net profit had declined by 66% from that peak. The 3DS had just debuted at the very end of that fiscal year, and the Wii U wasn't until the following year, so the woes those systems had weren't a factor, but declining Wii & DS sales were. That shows how quickly profits can drop in the face of declining sales.
I'm not saying the Switch 2 won't release in 2025, but Nintendo will not release it that year unless they simply cannot release it next year. A 2024 release simply makes more sense as it will reset the cycle and result in higher revenues next year, assuming it has a similar trajectory as the Switch and has some mega-blockbuster series that we haven't seen in a while released in the launch window.