December 2022 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes January 11 [RESULTS IN]

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NEW RULES + EXPLANATION
Because Michael Pachter of Wedbush Securities decided to stop subscribing to NPD this year, access to retail NPD appears to have been massively limited. Whether that's due to firms getting NPD through Pachter or agreeing with him that NPD data is worthless without digital sales (only video game companies that are on the digital board have access), leaks of hardware numbers might've dried up.

Fear not! I have a plan to remedy this set back so that this game can live on spirit. We will be transitioning away from predicting hardware units by console and instead be predicting Total Video Game Hardware Revenue and Order Of Consoles.

Every month NPD releases hardware revenue along with which console was in first place. We can always ask Mat Piscatella for the #2 console if he doesn't initially provide it.

How This Will Work
Predict how much revenue will be generated by Hardware for the given month as such

Good/Bad Formatting
Code:
Good                Bad
[REV] 405M          [REV] 400.5 million
[REV] 405,000,000   [REV] 405.000.000
[REV] 405000000     [REV] - 405000000

Then: Predict the order of each console FOR REVENUE as such

1. [NSW]
2. [PS5]
3. [XBS]

THE ABOVE IS IMPORTANT

The above is how you rank each console in terms of REVENUE. If you put NSW at 1., you are predicting NSW will be #1 in revenue.

Points
Hardware Revenue will be 50 points and follows how the hardware unit points work.

50 points * (percentage of correct revenue for hardware); anything over 100% difference = 0 points.

Correct Order would be the following in points.

If #1 correct = 18
If #2 correct = 10
If #3 correct = 7

If All Three correct = 15


That would be a total of 50 points to earn from console placements.

100 points in total to earn a month from the above two, plus bonus points for finishing in the Top 10 of hardware revenue.

#1 - 17 points
#2 - 13 points
#3 - 11 points
#4 - 9 points
#5 - 7 points
#6 - 5 points
#7 - 4 points
#8 - 3 points
#9 - 2 points
#10 - 1 point

Tradition Is Dead?
Not exactly. You will still put numbers down as if the game never changed. This will be your Unit ranking. Because I don't know if/when numbers will be made available again, there's always the potential they pop up again. If that happens, I want all of us to still make predictions as we have in the past.

RECAP
The 1.2.3. placements are how you will be ranking each platform for revenue. So if it's revealed PS5 was #1 in revenue and you had PS5 as 1., you get points for that.

The "traditional" predictions for unit sales will be separate to that. You can put whatever number you want there. You could have PS5 as 1. for revenue, but say you aren't sure about units and want to hedge your bets on Xbox being the actual unit lead. Example prediction below:

1. [PS5] 200K
2. [XBS] 300K
3. [NSW] 100K

This user has PS5 winning revenue, but Xbox for units. This is a valid prediction. How points are calculated are still the same 50 points assigned, but like this.

Each ranking still has the same value, If #1 correct = 18, If #2 correct = 10, If #3 correct = 7. If the revenue and unit results have the same placements, then nothing changes.

If revenue and unit placements/results are different, then points will be halved. Take the above example and we'll say the actual results are PS5 > XBS > NSW in both revenue and units.

The above predictor would get 9 points for predicting PS5 on top of revenue, but not the full 18 due to the unit placement. They would get 5 points for XBS for the same reason as PS5, then 7 points for NSW.

There are also bonus points for If All Three correct = 15. In this user's case, they'd only get 7.5 points as they got the correct revenue order, but not units.

In total they'd have 28.5 / 50 points.



ITT, predict for the NPD December 2022 retail period (November 27, 2022 - December 31, 2022) for U.S. hardware REVENUE and UNIT placements.

What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined by the National Retail Federation (find calendar links here).
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales followers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations. (Only used for Hardware Units)
Why are there still predictions when official NPD numbers are not released?:
Despite not receiving numbers from NPD directly since 2010, we have always found ways of obtaining them, whether through official company PR or leaks. These threads are also a place for the community to discuss the upcoming releases and current state of the US market as well as potential impacts in the future. In the end, it's for fun!

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EST on Wednesday, January 11th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: November 27, 2022 - December 31, 2022 (5 weeks, November was 4 weeks)
NPD Results Release: Thursday, January 12 @ 4 p.m. EST (PR+thread posted Friday, January 13 around 9 a.m EST)

Format:

[REV]

1. [NSW] XXX
2. [PS5] XXX
3. [XBS] XXX

Note: Combined totals for multi-SKUs. e.g. PS5 physical and digital edition total go under PS5. Xbox Series X and Xbox Series S total goes under XBS.

Good/Bad Formatting
Code:
Good                Bad
[REV] 405M          [REV] 400.5 million
[REV] 405,000,000   [REV] 405.000.000
[REV] 405000000     [REV] - 405000000

Code:
Good              Bad
[XBS] 1200K       [XBS] 1.2 million
[XBS] 1,200,000   [XBS] 1.200.000
[XBS] 1200000     [XBS] - 1200000

Potential hardware impacting events in December:
Cyber Monday/Christmas deals - Variable duration
PS5 availability improvements - 35 days
Xbox Series S $249 /$239 - 35 days

Video Game Hardware Prices
Switch: $199/$299/$349 (Lite/Regular/OLED)
Xbox Series: $299/$499 (S/X) | $239/$249 (S Holiday deals)
PS5: $399/$499 | $449/$549 | $459/$559 (Digital/Regular) | (Digital bundle/Regular bundle) | (Digital GOW/Regular GOW)

Older Hardware & Arcade cabinets: ??? (This is a factor but a small one)

Recent History of December Hardware Revenue
image.png


November 2021 NPD thread
December 2021 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 
Last edited:
[REV] 1500M

1. [PS5] 1500K
2. [NSW] 1300K
3. [XBS] 1100K
 
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Major note, we have been working on implementing a new bet addon for the forum that will very likely replace these threads for predicting next year.

Don't know when it'll be made public but just as a heads up. There will be fake money on the line.

I'll also post the November and December results at the same time since I took a month break so the end of year results can be exciting 😉
 
Do we have 2021's December NPD numbers for reference? I recall Switch was around 1350K but what about the others?
 
Just an interesting thought experiment, but with Sony announcing 30M PS5's sold through as of December, we could estimate PS5 LTD sales in the US based on precedent.

PS4 US LTD 2014: 6.69M
PS4 WW LTD 2014: 18.5M
36.12%

PS4 US LTD 2015: 12.4M
PS4 WW LTD 2015: 35.9M
34.54%

PS5 US LTD 2021: 6.24M
Ampere PS5 estimated WW sell through 2021: 17M
36.71%

At 30M, we could say there's a potential range between 35-37%, putting US LTD between 10.5M and 11.1M. I'd actually rule this entire range out as unless I'm over estimating PS5 November sales, LTD should've been above 10M already. I have it at 10.3M.

It looks like if anything, Sony is sending even more units to the US over time as opposed to previous generations. PS4 US sales were already close to 1/3rd share after two years while PS5 is probably closer to 40%. Just an interesting observation.
 
Just an interesting thought experiment, but with Sony announcing 30M PS5's sold through as of December, we could estimate PS5 LTD sales in the US based on precedent.

PS4 US LTD 2014: 6.69M
PS4 WW LTD 2014: 18.5M
36.12%

PS4 US LTD 2015: 12.4M
PS4 WW LTD 2015: 35.9M
34.54%

PS5 US LTD 2021: 6.24M
Ampere PS5 estimated WW sell through 2021: 17M
36.71%

At 30M, we could say there's a potential range between 35-37%, putting US LTD between 10.5M and 11.1M. I'd actually rule this entire range out as unless I'm over estimating PS5 November sales, LTD should've been above 10M already. I have it at 10.3M.

It looks like if anything, Sony is sending even more units to the US over time as opposed to previous generations. PS4 US sales were already close to 1/3rd share after two years while PS5 is probably closer to 40%. Just an interesting observation.
I think it was pretty apparent when we were following stock drops in the last quarter that Sony was heavily prioritizing the US, so it's no surprise the ratio would have gone up.

Also we're not sure what PS5 sell through was at at the stop of tracking (Dec 31st), could technically be a decent bit over 30M.
 
[REV] 1597M

1. [PS5] 1500K
2. [NSW] 1350K
3. [XBS] 1150K

By the way why are there no results for last month?
 
23 hours remaining for the last predictions for 2022!
 
[REV] 1649M

1. [PS5] 1600K
2. [NSW] 1300K
3. [XBS] 1050K
 
Install Base Prediction Average
REV: 1565.94M (Standard deviation = 108M)

NSW: 1313K (Standard deviation = 129K)
PS5: 1505K (Standard deviation = 103K)
XBS: 1178K (Standard deviation = 83K)
 
I changed some numbers right before the deadline... increased some, probably all of them.

Lets see if I guessed right.

Welp, seeing as I didnt pick Switch for 1st....seems I guessed wrong, lol.
 
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Our prediction winners this month.
I'm finally back after a horrible November 2022 result.
Awesome. Never won a prediction here before.

Most people here expected the PS5 to be #1 in units. I assume people expected most PS5s to have been shipped to the US since it seemed like Europe didn't get that many.
 
NPD Prediction Results - December 2022

Revenue


Result: $1533M

1. Astrogamer - 3,000,000
2. SoonyXboneUhh - 17,000,000
2. BTB123 - 17,000,000
4. m051293 - 18,000,000
5. Welfare - 33,000,000
6. Anthony_The_Ghost - 53,000,000
7. Joxer - 63,000,000
8. Xevross - 64,000,000
9. jroc74 - 73,000,000
10. Myriotes - 74,000,000
11. awng782 - 83,000,000
12. Ystad - 88,000,000
13. Salesman - 116,000,000
14. GaiusBaltar25 - 117,000,000
15. Astral_lion02 - 119,000,000
16. reksveks - 147,000,000
17.Fatih_656 - 217,000,000
18. Malden - 267,000,000

Congrats to @Astrogamer . Excellent month everyone. 4/18 (22%) predictors were within 2% of the actual result, 10/18 (56%) predictors were within 5% of the actual result, 16/18 (89%) were within 10%.

Points
Code:
December 2022                      Overall 2022 (10/12)
1.  BTB123           112.45        Xevross           837.88
2.  SoonyXboneUhh    112.45        SoonyXboneUhh     790.21
3.  Ystad             97.13        Malden            778.30
4.  Malden            91.29        Welfare           777.29
5.  Astrogamer        79.40        Myriotes          773.68
6.  Welfare           76.92        m051293           728.37
7.  Joxer             72.95        Fatih_656         713.01
8.  Xevross           71.91        Astrogamer        706.61
9.  m051293           67.41        Astral_lion02     704.35
10. Salesman          67.22        jroc74            700.70
11. GaiusBaltar25     67.18        Joxer             654.32
12. jroc74            67.12        DeuceGamer        642.75
13. Astral_lion02     67.12        Tbone5189         635.58
14. Myriotes          66.09        reksveks          613.73
15. Anthony_The_Ghost 65.77        awng782           589.33
16. awng782           64.79        BTB123            585.91
17. Fatih_656         63.92        Kenka             582.56
18. reksveks          57.71        IronTed           558.01
19.                                Cobalt            474.02
20.                                Ystad             467.95
21.                                Wilmbreak         441.32
22.                                donny2112         402.53
23.                                Anthony_The_Ghost 369.45
24.                                The_Liquid_Laser  342.44
25.                                Luke88            300.69
26.                                Lelouch0612       274.69
27.                                GaiusBaltar25     251.49
28.                                Ystad             225.77
29.                                Ryng™             211.01
30.                                Rellik            192.66
31.                                Radagon07         186.09
32.                                Josh5890          178.98
33.                                TurnoftheCentury  169.74
34.                                Abzeronow         168.65
35.                                Salesman          144.41
36.                                MysticGon         142.82
37.                                Nocturnal         126.67
38.                                KillerMan         104.66
39.                                Shadow of the Void 99.81
40.                                TrunksWD           99.33
41.                                Luminoth 4545      98.00
42.                                Grimstat           96.30
43.                                Pancracio17        94.66
44.                                Bernd Lauert       86.26
45.                                DarkDetective      80.70
46.                                Aleh               70.17
47.                                POE                69.82
48.                                nextgeneration     60.19
49.                                menx64             58.54
50.                                allan-bh           10.00

Congratulations to @BTB123 and @SoonyXboneUhh for tying December, and @Xevross for winning 2022!
 
Woo I won one of these prediction things!

Thanks for running this this year Welfare, the new system you made to account for lack of leaks has worked very well I think.
 
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