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December 2021 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 11 (last prediction thread from me)

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ITT, predict for the NPD December 2021 retail period (November 28, 2021-January 1, 2022) for U.S. hardware sales.

What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined by the National Retail Federation (find calendar links here).
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales followers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.
Why are there still predictions when official NPD numbers are not released?
Trust me said:
To have fun? To share thoughts and speculation with a like mined group of people? To be able to communicate directly with individuals who study this industry for a living?
ethomaz said:
Since 2010 I guess we don't get official numbers anymore... that doesn't mean we don't get the numbers.

The ranking and results are based in real numbers.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EST on Tuesday, January 11th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: November 28, 2021-January 1, 2022 (5 weeks, November was 4 weeks)
NPD Results Release: Thursday, January 13 @ 4 p.m. EST (PR+thread posted Friday morningJanuary 18)



Note: Combined totals for multi-SKUs. e.g. PS5 physical and digital edition total go under PS5. Xbox Series X and Xbox Series S total goes under XBS.

Good/Bad Formatting
Good              Bad
[XBS] 1200K       [XBS] 1.2 million
[XBS] 1,200,000   [XBS] 1.200.000
[XBS] 1200000     [XBS] - 1200000

Potential hardware impacting events in December:
PS5 and XBS shortages - 35 days
Christmas shopping - 35 days

Prediction Format: (repeating to emphasize to use this format)


Note: Combined totals for multi-SKUs. e.g. PS5 physical and digital edition total go under PS5. Xbox Series X and Xbox Series S total goes under XBS.

November's #1 Predictor (PS5/XBS results not public; NSW - 1.13m)
[NSW] 1300k
[PS5] 700k
[XBS] 780k

November 2020 NPD thread
December 2020 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive


Why December 2021 will be the last prediction thread from me (post from August):
Some (possibly) sad news, but I'll not be continuing the NPD predictions after this year (2021). Picked these up from sonycowboy (I think) back in 2007, and have been doing them for 15 years by the end of this year. (Some people participating now might not have been born, at the time. :p ) Nothing wrong physically with me, in case anyone was wondering.

Would like to publicly thank the anonymous source(s) who have provided sales numbers over the years, as without your support, many of these months (and this whole year, so far) would not have been possible to provide results for! Your willingness to share is greatly appreciated, and has enabled the continuation of one of the most fun sub-groups I've had the privilege to be a part of at GAF, NG, and Resetera! (Will continue to keep the numbers provided secret, as well, so no worries there.)

Figured mid-yearish was a good time to bring it up, in case other source(s) were willing to share, and then someone else could plan to pick up the threads in January 2022. If someone else does pick up the threads in 2022, will enjoy going to back to participating from fully on the other side of the curtain, as speculation and analysis is always fun.

It's been a great ride, and thank you all for your participation in these threads over the years. You are what make SalesERA a great place to be! (^_^)
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