Circana October 2023: #1 Spider-Man 2 #2 Super Mario Wonder #3 AC Mirage; PS5 #1 Units+Revenue, NSW #2 Units, XBS #2 Revenue (PS5 and XBS LTD Update)

[Evilms]

Thank you very much!! The Nintendo 64 did very well, despite falling behind the PS1, but the drop in Japan compared to the SNES and the difference from the PS1 was much worse in my opinion. And I was surprised by the GBA, because in 36 months it did much better than any PS or XB in history! I personally think that the GBA would have sold more than 100 or 120 million if it had been released in 1999 or if the DS had been released in 2006.
Some months of November and December of the GBA in the USA appear in the Top 20 of NPD data since the PS1/N64 to current platforms?

The GBA had a very short life span, 2001-2004, like the GBC before it, 1998-2001.

Nov 01 : 923.664
Dec 01 : 1.708.176

Nov 02 : 1.198.489
Dec 02 : 2.137.943

Nov 03 : 1.186.667
Dec 03 : 2.255.267

Nov 04 : 1.117.175
Dec 04 : 2.060.443

Nov 05 : 892.438
Dec 05 : 1.213.196

Nov 06 : 641.000
Dec 06 : 850.700

Nov 07 : < 100.000 ?
Dec 07 : < 100.000 ?

 

[Satoshi_Mugiwara]

The GBA had a very short life span, 2001-2004, like the GBC before it, 1998-2001.

Nov 01 : 923.664
Dec 01 : 1.708.176

Nov 02 : 1.198.489
Dec 02 : 2.137.943

Nov 03 : 1.186.667
Dec 03 : 2.255.267

Nov 04 : 1.117.175
Dec 04 : 2.060.443

Nov 05 : 892.438
Dec 05 : 1.213.196

Nov 06 : 641.000
Dec 06 : 850.700

Nov 07 : < 100.000 ?
Dec 07 : < 100.000 ?

Biggest November Wii:
1: 2008 - 2,040M
2: 2010 - 1,270M
3: 2009 - 1,260M

Biggest December Wii:
1: 2009 - 3,810M
2: 2010 - 2,360M
3: 2008 - 2,150M

Biggest November DS:
1: 2009 - 1,700M
2: 2008 - 1,570M
3: 2007 - 1,530M

Biggest December DS:
1: 2009 - 3,310M
2: 2008 - 3,040M
3: 2010 - 2,500M

November PS2:
1: 2002 - 1,318M
2: ?
3: ?
December PS2:
1: 2002 - 2,733M
2: ?
3: ?

The GBA had very high numbers, but still well below the best of the Wii and DS.

 

[Shadow of the Void]

Yeah. The GBA was a beast back in its day. Had its lifespan not been cut short, it would have continued doing amazing numbers. It was either the second or third time after the PS2 and possibly the NES* a system sold over 8M units in the U.S. in a single year, and at the time it was discontinued it was the third best-selling system ever in the U.S. behind only the PS2 and Game Boy. It has since been joined in the "8M+ in One Year" club by the DS, Wii, and Switch.

The Top 10 best NPD years on record are as follows:

DS (2009): 11.19M
Wii (2008): 10.17M
DS (2008): 9.95M
Wii (2009): 9.59M
NSW (2020): 8.98M
PS2 (2002): 8.58M
DS (2010): 8.56M
DS (2007): 8.43M
GBA (2003): 8.19M
NSW (2021): 7.63M

When Nintendo hits it big, they really hit it big. They have three of the Top 5 best-selling systems ever in the U.S. with the DS, Switch, and Wii (the PS2 & 360 being the others on that list at #2 and #3, though the Switch will pass the 360 over this holiday season to take the #3 spot). The GBA is still ranked #7 after originally attaining the #3 spot, and the only thing that's likely to outsell it in the near-ish future is the Switch 2 and maybe-possibly-barely the PS5. The DS's record as best-selling system ever in the U.S. is unlikely to ever be beaten, though the Switch is guaranteed the #2 spot at this point.

*Note: Hard to tell because Nintendo changed their fiscal year starts back in the late 80s and because of a lack of quarterly NES shipment data

 

[enpleinjour]

When Nintendo hits it big, they really hit it big. They have three of the Top 5 best-selling systems ever in the U.S. with the DS, Switch, and Wii (the PS2 & 360 being the others on that list at #2 and #3, though the Switch will pass the 360 over this holiday season to take the #3 spot). The GBA is still ranked #7 after originally attaining the #3 spot, and the only thing that's likely to outsell it in the near-ish future is the Switch 2 and maybe-possibly-barely the PS5. The DS's record as best-selling system ever in the U.S. is unlikely to ever be beaten, though the Switch is guaranteed the #2 spot at this point.

Considering how ahead PS5 already is of PS4, it shouldn't have a problem outselling GBA, not barely. PS4 is at ~35M
Should be:

1. DS - 48.19
2. PS2 - 46.4
3. NSW - 46M+
4. 360 - 42.37
5. Wii - 40.66

 

[Lelouch0612]

Considering how ahead PS5 already is of PS4, it shouldn't have a problem outselling GBA, not barely. PS4 is at ~35M
Should be:

1. DS - 48.19
2. PS2 - 46.4
3. NSW - 46M+
4. 360 - 42.37
5. Wii - 40.66

With the Switch currently at 42.4m, could you explain how it would end up below the PS2 ?

 

[enpleinjour]

With the Switch currently at 42.4m, could you explain how it would end up below the PS2 ?

Thats why the plus is there, its ongoing. All depends on when the SW2 launches.

 

[Astrogamer]

Thats why the plus is there, its ongoing. All depends on when the SW2 launches.

The Switch would have to stop production before the end of 2024 to have it fall under the PS2. It's probably going to sell at least 1.5 million between November and December leaving about 2.5 million. Even with the Switch 2 launching in 2024, that should be achievable shipment wise in 2024.

 

[Welfare]

Right now Switch is guaranteed to become the #2 platform in US history. Only question is if it hits 50M before it's discontinued.

 

[Lelouch0612]

Thats why the plus is there, its ongoing. All depends on when the SW2 launches.

Not really tho ?
Even if we assume a bad Holiday season with 2.1m sold between November/December, that would mean they only need to sell 2m units in the rest of the Switch lifetime.

Even if Switch 2 was January 2024 (which it is obviously not), then those 2m would be reached.

 

[Satoshi_Mugiwara]

Yeah. The GBA was a beast back in its day. Had its lifespan not been cut short, it would have continued doing amazing numbers. It was either the second or third time after the PS2 and possibly the NES* a system sold over 8M units in the U.S. in a single year, and at the time it was discontinued it was the third best-selling system ever in the U.S. behind only the PS2 and Game Boy. It has since been joined in the "8M+ in One Year" club by the DS, Wii, and Switch.

The Top 10 best NPD years on record are as follows:

DS (2009): 11.19M
Wii (2008): 10.17M
DS (2008): 9.95M
Wii (2009): 9.59M
NSW (2020): 8.98M
PS2 (2002): 8.58M
DS (2010): 8.56M
DS (2007): 8.43M
GBA (2003): 8.19M
NSW (2021): 7.63M

When Nintendo hits it big, they really hit it big. They have three of the Top 5 best-selling systems ever in the U.S. with the DS, Switch, and Wii (the PS2 & 360 being the others on that list at #2 and #3, though the Switch will pass the 360 over this holiday season to take the #3 spot). The GBA is still ranked #7 after originally attaining the #3 spot, and the only thing that's likely to outsell it in the near-ish future is the Switch 2 and maybe-possibly-barely the PS5. The DS's record as best-selling system ever in the U.S. is unlikely to ever be beaten, though the Switch is guaranteed the #2 spot at this point.

*Note: Hard to tell because Nintendo changed their fiscal year starts back in the late 80s and because of a lack of quarterly NES shipment data

I'm surprised that the PS2 only appeared once and I thought that the 2011 X360 would take the place of the 2021 Switch. Can you do a ranking of all platforms that sold more than 5 million?

 

[awng782]

Considering how ahead PS5 already is of PS4, it shouldn't have a problem outselling GBA, not barely. PS4 is at ~35M
Should be:

1. DS - 48.19
2. PS2 - 46.4
3. NSW - 46M+
4. 360 - 42.37
5. Wii - 40.66

NDS reached 53M sold by the end of 2012, so probably just below 54M units lifetime.

 

[Evilms]

Home - Entertainment Software Association of Canada

Power of Play Global Report 2023 ESAC releases a global report with its partners Read more Roblox Joins ESAC Top Selling Games in Canada

theesa.ca

 

[AK World]

Home - Entertainment Software Association of Canada

Power of Play Global Report 2023 ESAC releases a global report with its partners Read more Roblox Joins ESAC Top Selling Games in Canada

theesa.ca

NHL 24 at #2. Interesting to see regional performances of different sports games.

 

[Evilnemesis8]

Mario and Mirage pretty doing the same as the US, just bumped down a notch because of NHL.

 

[ILikeFeet]

Mario Hockey by Next Level Games when?

 

[Evilnemesis8]

Mario Hockey by Next Level Games when?

There's already Canadian bros(really small teams, low single digits) trying to make the dream of arcade hockey alive

Tape to Tape
ODR HOCKEY HEROES


Still, I won't say no to: Luigi's Mansion 4 - The Spooky Rink or some a Hockey game from them, I doubt it though.

 

[Shadow of the Void]

Considering how ahead PS5 already is of PS4, it shouldn't have a problem outselling GBA, not barely. PS4 is at ~35M
Should be:

1. DS - 48.19
2. PS2 - 46.4
3. NSW - 46M+
4. 360 - 42.37
5. Wii - 40.66

The PS5 is ahead of the PS4 by a comfortable margin, but the gap is entirely from this year, as it was running a deficit against the PS4 at the start of this year. The PS5 is up a lot YoY likely because supply has been fully normalized and a lot of pent-up demand is finally being satisfied. Meanwhile, for whatever reason, the PS4 had a pretty slow 2016, with its Jan.-Oct. period that year being the slowest of the system's first five full years on the market in the U.S. thanks to substantial YoY declines from June through October, this despite the release of the Slim in September.

The PS5 is so far exhibiting a more normal sales curve with what could be an actual pronounced peak. Meanwhile, the PS4 & XBO both had the overall flattest sales trajectory of any major console, with no real pronounced peak. No year for the PS4's 2014-2018 period deviated more than 11% from the overall average of that five-year average, and the best year of that period (2015) was only 22% higher than the worst year (2014), both of which are notably small differences compared to previous generations. Therefore, it's entirely possible that this could be the PS5's peak year, and we could see sales decline a good bit next year, perhaps back to 2022 levels. The PS5 could maintain a lead over the PS4, but that lead could cease growing and maybe even start shrinking and even evaporate entirely in another 3-4 years. The PS4 did, after all, experience a rebound after 2016, being up in 2017 and again in 2018 (the latter year failed to be the PS4's peak calendar year in the U.S. solely because of a lackluster December).

Best-case scenario, I think the PS5 will sell around 38-39M units in the U.S., but it could conceivably only sell 36-37M, beating the PS4 by a million or two. That would put it right about on par with the GBA or just barely ahead of it. I'm not saying the PS5 won't pass the GBA. It very well could. In fact, I'd like to revise by "maybe-possibly" to a "probably but not 100% guaranteed," because now that I think about it, the PS4 fell short of the GBA by only 1.3M, and that's because it had no legs at all, being dead in the water starting in Oct. 2020 after the COVID boom depleted stock and Sony being unable or unwilling to make any more beyond a small trickle. If the PS4 had a decline percentage-wise in 2020-21 similar to the PS3's 2013-14, it would have sold just over 36M units instead of 34.9M, about the same as the GBA's 36.2M. If the PS5 beats the GBA, I'm thinking it'll probably only do so by a million or two, not exactly a massive margin in relative terms, so I am sticking with my "barely." I really do think it'll be close. And unless Xbox exits the market, I doubt we'll ever see another PlayStation console pass 40M in the U.S.

But then again I've always tended to be conservative with my estimates.

Also, the DS sold over 53M in the U.S., not 48.2M. It was already at over 47M by the end of 2010, and sold over 6M more units after 2010. Based on the numbers I've gathered over the years, the current all-time Top 5 in the U.S. is as follows:

NDS: 53.5M
PS2: 46.7M
360: 43.2M
NSW: ~42.5M (as of Oct. 2023)
Wii: 41.8M

 

[Astral_lion02]

Nintendo Switch VS Playstation 2

|------|----------|-----------|----------|-----------|------------|
|      |     PlayStation 2    |    Nintendo Switch   | Difference |
|      |     (2000/10/26)     |     (2017/03/03)     |            |
|------|----------|-----------|----------|-----------|------------|
|Month |  Monthly |    LTD    |  Monthly |    LTD    |  NSW - PS2 |
|------|----------|-----------|----------|-----------|------------|
|  77  |   299.000| 38.538.000|   240.000| 41.780.000|   3.172.000|
|  78  |   295.000| 38.833.000|   200.000| 41.980.000|   3.077.000|
|  79  |   280.000| 39.113.000|   210.000| 42.190.000|   2.997.000|
|  80  |   194.000| 39.307.000|   200.000| 42.390.000|   3.013.000|
|  81  |   188.000| 39.495.000|          |           |            |
|  82  |   270.000| 39.765.000|          |           |            |
|  83  |   222.000| 39.987.000|          |           |            |
|  84  |   202.000| 40.189.000|          |           |            |
|------|----------|-----------|----------|-----------|------------|

There is a problem with accuracy of PS2 monthly numbers before 2007 so LTD could be higher or lower by a few 100Ks.

___

In the US succesful consoles tend to stay quitte strong even this late on the cycle.
Wii realy seams to be the only big exeption.
It's the complete opposite of Japan where Switch is the first case of a succesful console staying strong in it's 7th year since Famicom or Super Famicom I think.
For the comparaison between NDS/PS2 and Switch it's important to remember that PS2 and NDS both have theirs successors out by this point so Switch have an advantage.
The only other major succesful console who had no successor out by that point is the Xbox 360 and it's sales in 2012 are quitte close to Switch.

 

[saicho]

Considering how ahead PS5 already is of PS4, it shouldn't have a problem outselling GBA, not barely. PS4 is at ~35M

not so fast... XB1 should have sold more than 360 since XB1 was at 13.334M after 36 months and 360 was at 11.587M but that didn't happen. There is no guarantee PS5 will sell more than PS4/GBA.

 

[Aquamarine]

Right now I have no reason to believe otherwise.

This is what I estimate

PS5: 320K

NSW: 210K

XBS: 200K

Congrats on having such accurate estimates for October! I applaud your meticulous tracking over the years and your ability to derive market insights within Circana's margin of error from sparse and disparate info

 

[Shadow of the Void]

I'm surprised that the PS2 only appeared once and I thought that the 2011 X360 would take the place of the 2021 Switch. Can you do a ranking of all platforms that sold more than 5 million?

I missed this the other day, but sure. Here's everything I have:

DS (2009): 11.19M
Wii (2008): 10.17M
DS (2008): 9.95M
Wii (2009): 9.59M
NSW (2020): 8.98M
PS2 (2002): 8.58M
DS (2010): 8.56M
DS (2007): 8.43M
GBA (2003): 8.19M
NSW (2021): 7.63M
360 (2011): 7.28M
PS1 (1998): 7.11M
GBA (2004): 7.08M
Wii (2010): 7.07M
GBA (2002): 6.95M
GBC (2000): 6.82M
360 (2010): 6.76M
NSW (2019): 6.50M
GBC (1999): 6.45M
PS2 (2003): 6.39M
Wii (2007): 6.29M
PS2 (2001): 6.22M
PS1 (1999): 5.84M
NSW (2022): 5.83M
PS4 (2015): 5.74M
PS5 (2022): 5.66M
NSW (2018): 5.64M
PS4 (2017): 5.46M
PS4 (2018): 5.32M
NDS (2006): 5.32M
360 (2012): 5.32M
PS4 (2016): 5.10M
PS1 (1997): 5.05M

That should be everything.

As you can see, the list expands massively if you lower the threshold from 7M to 5M. All told, since Gen 5, a console has passed the 5M mark in a single calendar year 33 times, compared to only 14 times a system passed 7M in a year and only four times a system has passed 9M in a year.

 

[SoonyXboneUhh]

edit: nvm found it.

PS5 yearly sales will end up at 6.5m at the lower end and 7m higher end most likely.
Beating the PS4 record is an easy given. Beating the PS1 record I don't see with that $499 price point this holiday season.

 

[BTB123]

NSW (2022): 5.83M
NSW (2022): 5.64M

Which one is which?

 

[awng782]

Which one is which?

The bottom one should be NSW 2018

 

[Belthazar]

Lol. PS trying to do the same PSP+PSV to obscure the data once more.

How would counting it as a new separate piece of hardware instead of an accessory serve the purpose of obscuring the data? How?

 

[Shadow of the Void]

Which one is which?

Meant to put 2018. It's fixed now.

 

[Satoshi_Mugiwara]

I missed this the other day, but sure. Here's everything I have:

DS (2009): 11.19M
Wii (2008): 10.17M
DS (2008): 9.95M
Wii (2009): 9.59M
NSW (2020): 8.98M
PS2 (2002): 8.58M
DS (2010): 8.56M
DS (2007): 8.43M
GBA (2003): 8.19M
NSW (2021): 7.63M
360 (2011): 7.28M
PS1 (1998): 7.11M
GBA (2004): 7.08M
Wii (2010): 7.07M
GBA (2002): 6.95M
GBC (2000): 6.82M
360 (2010): 6.76M
NSW (2019): 6.50M
GBC (1999): 6.45M
PS2 (2003): 6.39M
Wii (2007): 6.29M
PS2 (2001): 6.22M
PS1 (1999): 5.84M
NSW (2022): 5.83M
PS4 (2015): 5.74M
PS5 (2022): 5.66M
NSW (2018): 5.64M
PS4 (2017): 5.46M
PS4 (2018): 5.32M
NDS (2006): 5.32M
360 (2012): 5.32M
PS4 (2016): 5.10M
PS1 (1997): 5.05M

That should be everything.

As you can see, the list expands massively if you lower the threshold from 7M to 5M. All told, since Gen 5, a console has passed the 5M mark in a single calendar year 33 times, compared to only 14 times a system passed 7M in a year and only four times a system has passed 9M in a year.

Scary Game Boy numbers in 1999 and 2000. Probably because of Pokémon R/B/Y and the anime that powered the games. Selling over 6 million a year before the GBA debut was incredible!!!

 

[eternalsenia]

Scary Game Boy numbers in 1999 and 2000. Probably because of Pokémon R/B/Y and the anime that powered the games. Selling over 6 million a year before the GBA debut was incredible!!!

it's up there with kinect in reviving a consoles sales

 

[KillerMan]

Scary Game Boy numbers in 1999 and 2000. Probably because of Pokémon R/B/Y and the anime that powered the games. Selling over 6 million a year before the GBA debut was incredible!!!

it's up there with kinect in reviving a consoles sales

it's combination of Pokemon boom and GameBoy Color itself making people to upgrade from older GameBoy (as it was big upgrade). That is why people debate about Color being new platform or not. it had decent amount exclusive games but also a lot of people just wanted any kind of GB to play Pokemon and GBC was the model available to buy so they went with it. Personally I think that even without GBC GameBoy pocket would had sold a lot with Pokemon boom (and Nintendo does count GBC in GB total sales)

 

[RaymondBryce]

not so fast... XB1 should have sold more than 360 since XB1 was at 13.334M after 36 months and 360 was at 11.587M but that didn't happen. There is no guarantee PS5 will sell more than PS4/GBA.

I don't think that's a great example since the 360 got a massive late life boost from Kniect, there wasn't really anything similar for PS4 (aside from COVID softening its decline in the last 6 months of its life).

 

[eternalsenia]

it's combination of Pokemon boom and GameBoy Color itself making people to upgrade from older GameBoy (as it was big upgrade). That is why people debate about Color being new platform or not. it had decent amount exclusive games but also a lot of people just wanted any kind of GB to play Pokemon and GBC was the model available to buy so they went with it. Personally I think that even without GBC GameBoy pocket would had sold a lot with Pokemon boom (and Nintendo does count GBC in GB total sales)

I think GBC wasn't too much different GB even if the specs upgrade was relatively bigger than other revisions relatively iirc, but specs as we all know isn't as an important factor to nintendo as other factors such as new hw features (gimmicks, novelties) or new first party games, thats why GBC is seen as a revision rather than a new generation, just like DSi which also had better specs and exclusive games, the same way Wii is considered a new generation despite lackluster upgrade in hw because of new games made possible thanks to motion controls

switch 2 will be similar to GC > Wii although the spec upgrade will be much bigger and will be the main focus of the new hw, that itself will warrant a new generation as many new games will be possible thanks to the upgraded hw, as I believe everything else will be similiar, from form factor to even the name (console name should retain switch)

yep pokemon was truly a system seller, GBC just extended the GB life for pokemon, or rather pokemon extended GB life in the form of GBC, as even without GBC the OG GB would easily still sell millions more, although GBC no doubt helped sell many additional millions as color was a huge upgrade back then

 

[Shadow of the Void]

Right now Switch is guaranteed to become the #2 platform in US history. Only question is if it hits 50M before it's discontinued.

50M is probably the absolute upper limit. The Switch is already running a massive deficit against the DS, being nearly 6.4M units down compared to where the DS was in Oct. 2011. While it has started closing the gap, it's doing so very slowly, with most of its gains against the DS this year just from Q2, which got a boost from TOTK and its associated LE SKU. The DS did do only 982k in the 2011 holiday season, so the Switch should narrow things even further.

The DS did another 1.97M in 2012, while the Switch has a very good chance of dipping below 4M in 2024, and that's even if the Switch 2 doesn't come out until November. It's already threatening to dip below the 200k mark for non-holiday months, something it hasn't done since 2018. It was down something like 20% in Q1 and 30% in Q3 this year. There's a very good chance it could do under 2M for the Jan.-Oct. period of next year, and once the Switch 2 comes out it's going to cause Switch sales to slow even further, so we might not see another 2M+ holiday season. So there's your sub-4M 2024. That will be enough to shrink the Switch's deficit to somewhere around 4M, but it'll be too late to close it entirely once the Switch 2 comes out.

So, I'm thinking somewhere in the 49-50M range is likely. Even if it doesn't hit 50M, it won't be too far short of it, which is an amazing accomplishment. Even only 49M would put it over 2M ahead of the PS2 and only around 4.5M short of the DS.

it's up there with kinect in reviving a consoles sales

The 360 already experienced a surge in sales months earlier with the release of the 360 S. The Kinect did have at least some effect in November of that year, but not much past that.

it's combination of Pokemon boom and GameBoy Color itself making people to upgrade from older GameBoy (as it was big upgrade). That is why people debate about Color being new platform or not. it had decent amount exclusive games but also a lot of people just wanted any kind of GB to play Pokemon and GBC was the model available to buy so they went with it. Personally I think that even without GBC GameBoy pocket would had sold a lot with Pokemon boom (and Nintendo does count GBC in GB total sales)

It's technically the same system, just upgraded, kinda like the PS4 Pro and Xbox One X.

But yeah, there's no way of telling how much of the surge was just a new console and how much was from Pokemon without more granular sales data (I only have monthly figures for the home consoles from back then). But then again, that might not even tell us much, as both were released in 1998 and the surge didn't happen until 1999. There was a more modest surge in 1998, with total Game Boy platform sales that year being about 2.9M, about 38% higher than the 2.1M in 1997. Perhaps their effects were delayed as it probably took time for Pokemon to catch on. It was a brand new IP and may have taken some time to get really huge.

 

[EnergyDrink]

@salesguy For a guy who named himself salesguy, surely you realize that the release of the PS5 slim in November would have some influence on the October PS5 hardware sales, right?

But the PS5 Slim has no big advantage over the old version, it's slightly smaller but more expensive in some countries. I think the influence could be not very big.