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BOLD Prediction: Splatoon 3 in Japan Will Become.....

Splatoon 3 will sell ___ in Japan Lifetime

  • Under 5mil

    Votes: 30 20.7%
  • 5-6mil

    Votes: 65 44.8%
  • 6-7mil

    Votes: 32 22.1%
  • 7-8mil

    Votes: 11 7.6%
  • 8-10mil

    Votes: 4 2.8%
  • 10mil+

    Votes: 4 2.8%

  • Total voters
    145
  • Poll closed .

Nocturnal

Member
Time to take a page from @Tbone5189

I've noticed that a lot of people in the M-C threads are expecting the latest Pokemon to be the best selling title this year
Some seem to think that Splatoon 3 will sell below 5 million lifetime(only Splatoon 2 fans will buy it), so I wanted to check what are everyone's expectations.
Obviously as a fan that was ridiculed for his Predicted that Splatoon 2 would sell over 5 million on the Switch, over 2 million WW year one on the Wii U & that it would be a huge seller in Japan - so it's not surprising I have lofty expectations for Splatoon 3.

Currently there are Three Main Factors to consider:


Dev Time & Hardware Lifetime Cycle

Currently Splatoon 3 is set as the game that has had the most time in the oven from the franchise.
On the Wii U Splatoon started development in 2013:

One of the experiments Eguchi's team considered was made by Shintaro Saito, a Nintendo programmer. It got people excited. "So that prototype was this game where you had four black blocks and four white blocks and they were shooting at each other and trying to control territory,

That all happened about a year ago.

At E3 this year, Nintendo's top game designer Shigeru Miyamoto, whose first big game was 1981's Donkey Kong, referred to the Splatoon team as young. "That's being made by some very young members of the group," he told me. "They're having a lot of freedom to create the game that they want."

Wii U Era - Splatoon

Splatoon launched in what many called soft-launch in 2015 but compared to many other multiplayer shooters we've seen launch in recent times it actually had plenty of content. It was an immediate hit everywhere but what set it aside was it's success in Japan. Sadly at this point the system it was supposed to support the Wii U could not support Splatoon's growth.
It sold about as well as a game could sell especially in Japan where it had over 50% attach rate per Dengeki. Still it was greatly limited due to the unpopularity of the Wii U. It had additional maps, modes, gear that was being updated until 2017, so in a way Splatoon team was actually working on two games simultaneously.

Switch Early Era - Splatoon 2

Even before the Switch launched there were many rumors about Splatoon enhanced edition being one of the launch year titles. This turned out to be party true because Splatoon 2 actually had a lot of additions like Salmon Run, new weapons, specials & game mechanics that didn't make it to the Wii U. It still was very similar to Splatoon but as someone who played both - I gotta say that it's not surprising that Splatoon maintains a loyal following in Japan.
After all Splatoon 2 did loose three major features that made the original unique the Miiverse integration, Wii U Gamepad showing the map & the mini-games during loading screens.

Splatoon 2 is a major success despite only 2 year development cycle, the franchise has more than doubled the lifetime sales of the debut and would have likely sold a lot more had it received more ongoing support. Currently it has sold over 5 million units in Japan meaning that it maintains over 20% attach rate on the Switch.

Yet, the need to move on definitely hurt how high sales could have ended up for Splatoon 2. Octo expansion was great but if it received large updates like that in 2019, 2020, 2021 it could have very well be heading into 7mil territory. But with the need to move a larger part of the team to New Horizon - Splatoon 2 launched too early in the Switch lifetime to really reach the franchise's ceiling on the Switch.

It's a massively popular multiplayer IP but it's difficult to get into a game where the vast majority of players are ahead of you in terms of skills, experience & unlocked gear without additional incentive. This is why I wasn't surprised that it didn't see massive increase due to Animal Crossing: New Horizon launch despite both games being massively popular across the same demographics(young people and especially women). This is where Splatoon 3 comes in

Switch Peak - Splatoon 3

There is no doubt this is the peak year of software sales on the Switch in Japan and Splatoon 3 is likely to be a major reason why.
Unlike previous games where it launched on far smaller userbases Splatoon 3 is set to launch on the largest user-base Japan has seen since the DS & GB/GBA, by the time the year is over Switch would have overtaken 3DS and no doubt Splatoon 3 will bring renewed momentum for the hardware.

It's been 5 long years which is a longer period than it took to release Splatoon and Splatoon 2 since the first started development in 2013. FRESH gameplay ideas are what are going to set Splatoon 3 from the previous games. The five years+ of data Splatoon team has can also help them optimize the game in such a way that it's not as rigid(one ranked mode at a time with just two maps rotating every two hours). The larger user-base will allow the game to be the first time in the franchise's history that it has the potential to achieve over 10 million units in its launch quarter. I expect over 40% of sales to be in Japan but no doubt rest of East Asia might also fall under Splatoon-mania.

No doubt around the fact that this game will also get a lot more long-term support as Nintendo expands and wants to keep it's main online shooter relevant for the next few years and allow it to reach its maximum potential. Splatoon has always been a leggy title, and this will be the fact especially in Japan for Splatoon 3:

Famitsu Splatoon (Wii U)
2015 - 1.064.897
2016 - 398.251
2017 - 72.492

Famitsu Splatoon 2 (Switch)
2017 - 1.752.096
2018 - 1.122.324
2019 - 378.340
2020 - 435.629
2021 - 349.143
2022 - 61.452


Social Media Clout

Exhibit A - Most liked video on Nintendo JP Youtube:
1) Splatoon 3 Reveal - 157K likes
FLdmYoZX0AMbaQh


2) Octotune - 142K likes
FLdmqDMX0AQe-A4


3) Pikmin Part 3 - 103K likes
FLdnxaJXoAM_xg9

Now engagement on YouTube isn't a be-all, but the nearest gaming related video is New Horizon which is still below Pikmin Part 3

Exihibit B - 6th Most Viewed Game/Direct Video

In terms of Views, Splatoon 3 reveal is currently just outside the Top 5 game trailer/direct video on the channel(not counting Minecraft lets plays since those would extend the list a lot),

Top 5 Videos on Nintendo Japan
  1. Super Mario Odyssey - 12.81M Views / 23K Likes
  2. Mario & Luigi RPG 3 DX - 10.44M Views / 39K Likes
  3. Animal Crossing New Horizon Direct (Feb 2020) - 8.03M Views / 102K Likes
  4. Splatoon Introduction Video - 7.98M / 24K Likes
  5. Splatoon E3 2014 - 6.5M / 26K Likes
  6. Splatoon 3 Introduction Video - 6.09M / 157K Likes
Exhibit C - Engagement on JP YouTube vs New Horizon

Top 10 New Horizon/Splatoon Videos
  1. Animal Crossing New Horizon Direct (Feb 2020) - 8.03M Views / 102K Likes
  2. Splatoon Introduction Video - 7.98M / 24K Likes
  3. Splatoon E3 2014 - 6.5M / 26K Likes
  4. Splatoon 3 Introduction Video - 6.09M / 157K Likes
  5. Splatoon 2 Introduction Video - 5.22M / 21K Likes
  6. Animal Crossing New Horizon Free Update (July 2020) - 4.96M Views / 71K Likes
  7. Animal Crossing New Horizon Direct (Oct 2021) - 4.62M Views / 92K Likes
  8. Animal Crossing New Horizon Reveal (Sep 2019)- 4.48M Views / 47K Likes
  9. Splatoon - Splatfest Introduction - 4.39M Views / 29K Likes
  10. Splatoon E3 2017 - 4.19M Views / 21K Likes
As we can see Splatoon has held it's own against New Horizon on Youtube having more videos in the Top 10 compared to what a huge franchise that has had success for over a decade has managed in Japan.

Exhibit D - Twitter dominance

1) @Nintendo - 2.2 Million Followers
2) @doubutsuno_mori - 1.65 Million Followers
3) @Pokemon_cojp - 1.61 Million Followers
4) @SplatoonJP - 1.4 Million Followers
5) @PokemonGOAppJP- 1.1 Million Followers

Back in 2018 Splatoon was actually the largest Twitter Account in terms of followers across Nintendo, overtaking the main account. Since than obviously it has seen growth slow down as there weren't many updates fans to discuss on Twitter. As the hype train starts to rack-up we can expect it to start catching up to Animal Crossing and Pokemon. I think that by the summer it will catch-up and maybe even overtake them.


Exhibit C & D are most important to me as it directly compares Animal Crossing which is the biggest franchise in Japan to Splatoon. I find these two to be perhaps the main sign of its huge potential that's overlooked - as it's the only game that with long term support can challenge New Horizon in Japan. I can't think of another franchise that could actually even approach what New Horizon has achieved. Also Social Media has changed a lot since 2015 as we can see more recent videos like the Splatoon


ANIMAL CROSSING AUDIENCE

Recently there was a poll where 50,000 Japanese people were asked their top games, unsurprisingly New Horizon was by far the most consistent game across women in all age groups.

New Horizon #4
FHn4AH-XsAYkUdW

#2 game among teenage girls
#2 among 20-30 y/o women
#3 among 30-40 y/o women
#4 among 40-50 y/o women
#5 among 50+ y/o women

Splatoon 2 #5
FHn2u5NWYAQ4Ok5

#1 game among teenage girls
#3 game among teenage boys
#3 game among young women

Splatoon #21
FHtv0UrXwAMGw0h

#5 game among teenage boys
#9 game among teenage girls
Top 30 among young women & men

Now consider what I mentioned earlier regarding Splatoon 2 not fully realizing it's potential especially in light of the new audiences that picked up Switch due to New Horizon:
It's a massively popular multiplayer IP but it's difficult to get into a game where the vast majority of players are ahead of you in terms of skills, experience & unlocked gear without additional incentive. This is why I wasn't surprised that it didn't see massive increase due to Animal Crossing: New Horizon launch despite both games being massively popular across the same demographics(young people and especially women). This is where Splatoon 3 comes in

For a lot of new Horizon Audience this will be the first time they can pick-up Splatoon and face a lively community of other newbies, this needs to be highlighted as the popularity among younger females likely will lead to popularity among older ones that have bought a Switch due to the New Horizon.
It's very likely that this will give Splatoon 3 an entirely new audience to sell-to as I guess most people who bought Switch in the 2017-2018 period were either hardcore fans or young kids among whom the game remains HUGE.

STILL TO COME....

SPLATOON 3 DIRECT, GLOBAL TESTFIRE, GLOBAL TOURNAMENT & PREORDERS (TBR)


Finally we have to consider that so far we've only received a taste of what's to come - I will update this Thread as we begin to really start to see Marketing for Splatoon 3 start to ramp up. We can expect several things:

Splatoon 3 Direct - next two months
First thing that will come will be the Splatoon 3 direct, this will focus on the game play changes they've implemented. We've only scratched the surface so far with the PVE - Salmon Run returning, haven't seen much of the single player and have seen limited things from the multiplayer. However there is definitely more cooking and a lot of will be revealed and this will mark the start of the marketing cycle dedicated to the game.

Global Testfire - shortly after the direct
Splatoon 3's success will stem from a hype Testfire that will allow the 20 million Switch audience to try it out, hell it might even tempt the Wii U diehards who are still active on Splatoon 1.

Pre-orders - shortly after the direct
Likely to start shortly after the direct, a good sign will be if Splatoon 3 straight away claims top Spot on COMG and Remains in the Top 3 Software on Amazon.co.jp from the time the pre-orders start.

Global Tournament - around E3
Much like Splatoon 2 we can expect a Global Tournament with the best teams from each region to be organized by Nintendo. Maybe the only thing that can stop it's global nature is COVID but we will see how things progress.

NSO Expansion & Ongoing Support
I believe large scale support will continue for much longer than both Splatoon & Splatoon 2 as part of the NSO Expansion. This remains to be seen but this is my expectations, perhaps it was too early for Nintendo to afford long-term support of Splatoon 2 due to other priorities but Splatoon 3 will get a lot more priority in order to ensure people are subbed long-term to their Online Services. Especially in Japan where it will have it's break-out moment and enter the history books.

Looking forward the results, I'm on the 10 million+ Splat3-train

 
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Nocturnal

Nocturnal

Member
Wait, 10m? Are we still talking about Japan?

YES!
Go big or go home - this is why I linked my previous replies relating to Splat 1/2 - just to show that I was generally the person with outlandish expectations for the franchise while most people underestimated its long-term potential.
 
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I'm going with 6-7M. In 2022 I can see it doing 3.5M and then it will continue going strong for all of 2023. after that who knows.
 

Malden

Member
Went 6-7 (closer to 6) but was debating 5-6. I suspect a strong start but I think it will outleg 2.

(Thank you Nocturnal for the charts also)
 
Imagine it getting a port to the next Switch like Mario Kart 8 DX did. If Next Switch launches in 2024 (or sooner) there could be a lot of incentive for Nintendo to release an updated/expanded version at, or near launch.
 
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Nocturnal

Nocturnal

Member
Imagine it getting a port to the next Switch like Mario Kart 8 DX did. If Next Switch launches in 2024 (or sooner) there could be a lot of incentive for Nintendo to release an updated/expanded version at, or near launch.

If the next Switch is backwards compatible, & allows current games to scale up - do they even need to port it?
 
If the next Switch is backwards compatible, & allows current games to scale up - do they even need to port it?
Need? No, it will sell incredibly well just on current Switch in Japan, but selling a complete copy with an expansion could be an easy way to garner millions more sales.
 
I’m LOVING this thread lol. I went with 6-7M, but I really hope you’re right about it reaching 10M lol. The way this franchise is continually underestimated is ridiculous. I do feel it’s the only game that can give PS&V competition this year, unless switch sports captures a lot of the Animal Crossing crowd, or PLA has amazing legs/digital. We will see, but it’s the most exciting exclusive release regarding units sold this year for me. Nintendo is using this as the testing ground for growth of a series on a unified console. Usually, if they could, they would release one game on home console, and another full release on portable, but now they’re releasing both on a singular platform. What a time to be alive lol.
 

Catalyst

Member
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I voted 5-6M, with maybe 8M being the absolute ceiling. I don’t think it can double the previous game’s sales on the same console, that’s very rare for any franchise.
 

DarkDetective

真実はいつもひとつ! There's only one truth
Staff
Splatoon 2 shipments into Japan (physical+digital) as of 31st March 2021 were:

2017/18: 2.61m / 2.61m (global: 6.02m)
2018/19: 0.83m / 3.44m (global: 8.70m)
2019/20: 0.45m / 3.89m (global: 10.13m)
2020/21: 0.80m / 4.69m (global: 12.21m)
 

Uniomni

Member
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Voted for under 5 million.

I'd love to be proven wrong buy imo unless they're turning it upside down, it'll look like more of the same, ala the expansion derision of Spl2 returning with a vengeance
 

Koni

Member
Pronouns
He/Him
I’m not gonna vote until we get a Splatoon 3 Direct because what they’ve showed us so far is mainly just the three major returning elements from the first game: New maps and weapons for multiplayer, new single player campaign, new enemies and napes and mechanics for co-op.

We still have no idea what’ll set this game apart from the others yet (we don’t even know who the new idols are!), and we will find out everything that makes this different once we get a Splatoon direct. The game is large enough in Japan and big enough around the world to warrant one.

For now, though, I can see 5-7 million, maybe pushing 8 million depending on future support. This’ll be a huge release and I think it’ll definitely go toe to toe with Pokémon SV.
 

Lord Azrael

Member
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He/Him
Unless they are hiding something earth shattering, I highly doubt it reaches 2's numbers. Under 5m imo
 

Pancracio17

Member
Pronouns
Him/They
I think 6 million is plausible, but unlikely. It should sell much faster than Splatoon 2, but I dont know if the Switch has enough juice in its life to carry it for the years it needs to break 6m.
 

DCSales

Member
It'll probably top out just below 4 million, behind Splatoon 2's total.

Switch doesn't have a long enough lifecycle left before it gets succeeded by Switch 2 in order for Splatoon 3 to hit that high of a mark. It'll also lose some sales from being a pretty by-the-numbers sequel that does very little new (as evidenced by all of the footage shown so far).
 

cejuilla

Member
I voted for 7-8M to fill the hole :)
Splatoon is my fav IP so i'm super hyped for this one.

I think if a Switch 2/pro comes out anytime soon eventually Nintendo will only allow Splatoon3 to be backward compatible with the new system.
That way they'll have only 1 multiplayer installbase for the IP on the next iteration/model.
 
amazing thread, nocturnal always with the amazing splatoon content.
i played more than 600 hours between splatoon1 and splatoon2, i love this IP

with that said i have some concerns about the third installment...
1-this is the longest development cycle for a game in the series yet we still have not seen new ideas that make this game standout
2-splatoon 1 and splatoon 2 were a cultural phenomenom in japan, we still dont know if the franchise will be like pokemon(keep selling forever) or if it has reach its peak

optismitic me want to vote for 7-8 million but nintendo needs to show me more
 
Splatoon 3 Launch Date Reveal & Pre-orders Open
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Nocturnal

Nocturnal

Member
Splatoon 3 just got it's release window - September 2022




Preorders for Splatoon 3 start today, that's gonna be a fun one to follow.
Boxed version is ¥5.980 and download version is ¥5.909. Huge difference! /s
y_6262ac80406c3.webp

Some of the new focus will be further customization of Inklings/Octolings
They've also showcased a lot of the new specials in their Turf Wars reveal.

This weekend as it appears on COMG & Amazon.co.jp for the first time,

Splatoon 3 Direct and Testfire dates are next, I expect Testfires to start in June for the start of the summer vacation with a second one towards the end. We will see if these testfires impact hardware sales as well.
 
Splatoon 3 just got it's release window - September 2022





Some of the new focus will be further customization of Inklings/Octolings
They've also showcased a lot of the new specials in their Turf Wars reveal.

This weekend as it appears on COMG & Amazon.co.jp for the first time,

Splatoon 3 Direct and Testfire dates are next, I expect Testfires to start in June for the start of the summer vacation with a second one towards the end. We will see if these testfires impact hardware sales as well.
 
Splatoon 3 just got it's release window - September 2022






Some of the new focus will be further customization of Inklings/Octolings
They've also showcased a lot of the new specials in their Turf Wars reveal.

This weekend as it appears on COMG & Amazon.co.jp for the first time,

Splatoon 3 Direct and Testfire dates are next, I expect Testfires to start in June for the start of the summer vacation with a second one towards the end. We will see if these testfires impact hardware sales as well.

Looks like we see Splatoon absolutely continuing its acceleration towards the upper echelon of Nintendo’s mega franchises. No declines in sight! Lol

Sorry for misquoting you lol.
 

Luke88

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The engagement on the release date tweet is absurd, I hope Nintendo is stacking up on OLED models for September...
 

MysticGon

Member
What I want: a big increase to show both shooters and games outside of Mario, Pokemon can thrive in Japan even with multiple entries per generation.

What I expect: flat or slight decrease because the legs will last 5 years+ without a Deluxe version.
 
Are we still expecting 10M in its launch quarter now that it’s releasing in September? I’m moving towards 10M shipped (at most) by Dec.31 this year. Realistically it should hit it by March 31 2023. Either one of those would ensure Splatoon 3 ends much higher than 2 when it’s all said and done. I’ve been thinking about it this weekend and have come to the conclusion that this one will be massive. We’re in Switch’s software peak period like you said, and the support will be much longer and more thorough. Can’t wait honestly lol.
 
I don't have any particular predictions, but I'm curious about how Splatoon 3 will sell in Japan compared to Pokemon.

Also, I'm not sure if Splatoon and Animal Crossing have much staff overlap at Nintendo EPD aside from Nogami being a producer on both series.
 
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TomaTito

Member
Still believe it is a bit early for a new Splatoon title, as what they have showed could have been added as DLC and doesn't justify a new entry yet.
Hopefully they can change that point of view, and actually show the pontential Splatoon has with meaningful single player content.
Imagine it getting a port to the next Switch like Mario Kart 8 DX did. If Next Switch launches in 2024 (or sooner) there could be a lot of incentive for Nintendo to release an updated/expanded version at, or near launch.
Will this rebundle be considered as SP3 sales though? But what you say can happen, as it is similar to the BotW Expansion pass bundle.
If that happens, then the sky is the limit indeed for Splatoon on a fresh new console.
 

Luke88

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I voted 5-6M a while ago and I'll stand by it but I can't help but think Nintendo is botching the marketing anywhere but it Japan.
 
I voted under 5M, but I think it will be just under 5M by a little which still represents some growth. I will be somewhat surprised if it gets to the 5M-6M range, and I will be totally shocked if it can clear 6M though. I mean...it's not Animal Crossing right? Right?
 

SkyerIst

Member
It'll sell less than Splatoon 2 in Japan and worldwide. It's sad Nintendo didn't save this game for Switch 2.
 
For the posters who think it will sell less…why?

I mean it honestly could, but why would it if most things are new and/or improved substantially from its predecessor, especially in Japan?

While 13M is a lot, when you compare it to other Nintendo top tier sellers it has a lot of room for growth, even in Japan ( the region it’s the most popular in).

To me this will be the most interesting game to follow sales wise this year. I can’t wait lol.
 

PillFencer

Meat is murder
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Oh yeah! I was just thinking of Famitsu numbers only. Do you the latest total with digital included?
Nintendo shipments were at 4.69m by March 2021, we'll get the next update on Tuesday (as of March 2022). It being above 5m is guaranteed because from April 2021 to March 2022 it sold 290k at retail via Famitsu and it placed high in the 2021 eShop ranking (#17).
 

Tbone5189

Member
If I'm a betting man, "Does not enter all time top 10" seems like a safe bet 99.99% of the time.

But Splatoon 2 is not even close of being in the top 10 🤔

NSW games made entering the top 10 much higher! Splatoon 2 at 5mil would put it 16th still. To make 10th spot your gonna need over 5.85mil
 

PillFencer

Meat is murder
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What does the top 10 look like again? I see it every now and then.
quoting myself from the last report:

Best-selling games in Japan, LTD December 2021

SystemTitlePublisherRelease datePriceTotal sales
01Nintendo SwitchAnimal Crossing: New HorizonsNintendo20/03/2020¥5.98010 070 000
02Game BoyPokémon Red/GreenNintendo27/02/1996¥3.9008 220 000
03Game BoyPokémon Gold/SilverNintendo21/11/1999¥3.8007 300 000
04FamicomSuper Mario Bros.Nintendo13/09/1985¥4.9006 810 000
05Nintendo DSNew Super Mario Bros.Nintendo25/05/2006¥4.5716 490 000
06Nintendo SwitchSuper Smash Bros. UltimateNintendo07/12/2018¥7.2006 180 000
07Nintendo 3DSAnimal Crossing: New LeafNintendo08/11/2012¥4.5715 950 000
08Nintendo DSPokémon Diamond/PearlThe Pokémon Company28/09/2006¥4.5715 850 000
09Nintendo SwitchPokémon Sword/Shield *The Pokémon Company15/11/2019¥5.9805 760 000
10Nintendo SwitchMario Kart 8 DeluxeNintendo28/04/2017¥5.9805 660 000
11Nintendo DSPokémon Black/WhiteThe Pokémon Company18/09/2010¥4.5715 540 000
12Game Boy AdvancePokémon Ruby/SapphireThe Pokémon Company21/11/2002¥4.5715 400 000
13Nintendo DSAnimal Crossing: Wild WorldNintendo23/11/2005¥4.5715 350 000
14PlayStation PortableMonster Hunter Freedom 3Capcom30/11/2010¥5.5245 300 000
15Nintendo DSBrain Age 2: More Training in Minutes a DayNintendo29/12/2005¥2.5405 100 000
16Nintendo SwitchSplatoon 2 **Nintendo21/07/2017¥5.9804 690 000
17WiiNew Super Mario Bros. WiiNintendo03/12/2009¥5.5244 670 000
18Nintendo 3DSPokémon X/YThe Pokémon Company12/10/2013¥4.5714 560 000
19PlayStation PortableMonster Hunter Freedom UniteCapcom27/03/2008¥4.5714 400 000
20Nintendo DSDragon Quest IX: Sentinels of the Starry SkiesSquare Enix11/07/2009¥5.6954 400 000

* I added the ~200k sales of the Pokémon Sword/Shield + Expansion Pass SKU as estimated by Famitsu.
** Last sales update for Splatoon 2 was as of March 2021, it has likely reached 5 million units by now.

On Tuesday we'll get an update as of March 2022 for ACNH, SSBU, PS/S, MK8D and S2.
 

Tbone5189

Member
quoting myself from the last report:

Best-selling games in Japan, LTD December 2021

SystemTitlePublisherRelease datePriceTotal sales
01Nintendo SwitchAnimal Crossing: New HorizonsNintendo20/03/2020¥5.98010 070 000
02Game BoyPokémon Red/GreenNintendo27/02/1996¥3.9008 220 000
03Game BoyPokémon Gold/SilverNintendo21/11/1999¥3.8007 300 000
04FamicomSuper Mario Bros.Nintendo13/09/1985¥4.9006 810 000
05Nintendo DSNew Super Mario Bros.Nintendo25/05/2006¥4.5716 490 000
06Nintendo SwitchSuper Smash Bros. UltimateNintendo07/12/2018¥7.2006 180 000
07Nintendo 3DSAnimal Crossing: New LeafNintendo08/11/2012¥4.5715 950 000
08Nintendo DSPokémon Diamond/PearlThe Pokémon Company28/09/2006¥4.5715 850 000
09Nintendo SwitchPokémon Sword/Shield *The Pokémon Company15/11/2019¥5.9805 760 000
10Nintendo SwitchMario Kart 8 DeluxeNintendo28/04/2017¥5.9805 660 000
11Nintendo DSPokémon Black/WhiteThe Pokémon Company18/09/2010¥4.5715 540 000
12Game Boy AdvancePokémon Ruby/SapphireThe Pokémon Company21/11/2002¥4.5715 400 000
13Nintendo DSAnimal Crossing: Wild WorldNintendo23/11/2005¥4.5715 350 000
14PlayStation PortableMonster Hunter Freedom 3Capcom30/11/2010¥5.5245 300 000
15Nintendo DSBrain Age 2: More Training in Minutes a DayNintendo29/12/2005¥2.5405 100 000
16Nintendo SwitchSplatoon 2 **Nintendo21/07/2017¥5.9804 690 000
17WiiNew Super Mario Bros. WiiNintendo03/12/2009¥5.5244 670 000
18Nintendo 3DSPokémon X/YThe Pokémon Company12/10/2013¥4.5714 560 000
19PlayStation PortableMonster Hunter Freedom UniteCapcom27/03/2008¥4.5714 400 000
20Nintendo DSDragon Quest IX: Sentinels of the Starry SkiesSquare Enix11/07/2009¥5.6954 400 000

* I added the ~200k sales of the Pokémon Sword/Shield + Expansion Pass SKU as estimated by Famitsu.
** Last sales update for Splatoon 2 was as of March 2021, it has likely reached 5 million units by now.

On Tuesday we'll get an update as of March 2022 for ACNH, SSBU, PS/S, MK8D and S2.

Crazy how top 10 will be half of NSW games, and the top 20, a possible chance of that too 🤔
 
quoting myself from the last report:

Best-selling games in Japan, LTD December 2021

SystemTitlePublisherRelease datePriceTotal sales
01Nintendo SwitchAnimal Crossing: New HorizonsNintendo20/03/2020¥5.98010 070 000
02Game BoyPokémon Red/GreenNintendo27/02/1996¥3.9008 220 000
03Game BoyPokémon Gold/SilverNintendo21/11/1999¥3.8007 300 000
04FamicomSuper Mario Bros.Nintendo13/09/1985¥4.9006 810 000
05Nintendo DSNew Super Mario Bros.Nintendo25/05/2006¥4.5716 490 000
06Nintendo SwitchSuper Smash Bros. UltimateNintendo07/12/2018¥7.2006 180 000
07Nintendo 3DSAnimal Crossing: New LeafNintendo08/11/2012¥4.5715 950 000
08Nintendo DSPokémon Diamond/PearlThe Pokémon Company28/09/2006¥4.5715 850 000
09Nintendo SwitchPokémon Sword/Shield *The Pokémon Company15/11/2019¥5.9805 760 000
10Nintendo SwitchMario Kart 8 DeluxeNintendo28/04/2017¥5.9805 660 000
11Nintendo DSPokémon Black/WhiteThe Pokémon Company18/09/2010¥4.5715 540 000
12Game Boy AdvancePokémon Ruby/SapphireThe Pokémon Company21/11/2002¥4.5715 400 000
13Nintendo DSAnimal Crossing: Wild WorldNintendo23/11/2005¥4.5715 350 000
14PlayStation PortableMonster Hunter Freedom 3Capcom30/11/2010¥5.5245 300 000
15Nintendo DSBrain Age 2: More Training in Minutes a DayNintendo29/12/2005¥2.5405 100 000
16Nintendo SwitchSplatoon 2 **Nintendo21/07/2017¥5.9804 690 000
17WiiNew Super Mario Bros. WiiNintendo03/12/2009¥5.5244 670 000
18Nintendo 3DSPokémon X/YThe Pokémon Company12/10/2013¥4.5714 560 000
19PlayStation PortableMonster Hunter Freedom UniteCapcom27/03/2008¥4.5714 400 000
20Nintendo DSDragon Quest IX: Sentinels of the Starry SkiesSquare Enix11/07/2009¥5.6954 400 000

* I added the ~200k sales of the Pokémon Sword/Shield + Expansion Pass SKU as estimated by Famitsu.
** Last sales update for Splatoon 2 was as of March 2021, it has likely reached 5 million units by now.

On Tuesday we'll get an update as of March 2022 for ACNH, SSBU, PS/S, MK8D and S2.
Looking at this list Pokémon S/V will definitely make the top 10, and Splatoon 3 has a very good chance of it as well. I see It passing Pokémon B/W at the very least, which means growth not decline. We will see lol.
 

Tbone5189

Member
Looking at this list Pokémon S/V will definitely make the top 10, and Splatoon 3 has a very good chance of it as well. I see It passing Pokémon B/W at the very least, which means growth not decline. We will see lol.
The top 10 is shifting don’t forget, if one enters the top 10 then The bar just raises.

Before NSW came out, to enter the top 10 in japan you needed to beat MHF3 at 5.30mil.

Now at 10th place is currently 5.66mil (mk8D) with 9th being Pokémon SwSh (5.76mil) that both are currently only rising!

Pokémon DP at 5.85mil is now the bar to beat just for 1 game to make it in the top 10
 
The top 10 is shifting don’t forget, if one enters the top 10 then The bar just raises.

Before NSW came out, to enter the top 10 in japan you needed to beat MHF3 at 5.30mil.

Now at 10th place is currently 5.66mil (mk8D) with 9th being Pokémon SwSh (5.76mil) that both are currently only rising!

Pokémon DP at 5.85mil is now the bar to beat just for 1 game to make it in the top 10

I know, that’s why I see Pokémon S/V making it for sure. I can see it eventually selling more than SW&SH. I’m not as bullish with Splatoon 3, but I can definitely see it selling more than Pokémon B&W, and having a good shot at making the top 10.

As long as a decline doesn’t happen, I’m good lol. This will be interesting though.
 
Now that Splatoon 2 has officially passed 5M I just can’t see 3 selling less in Japan or WW. Splatoon 2 is going to finish at around (at least) 14M WW with about 5.3 of that being from Japan.

Splatoon 3 should start much stronger all around. They should have at least 2 years of good content with Splatfest going another year after that before they really slow down and prepare for the next installment.

3 could also turn into the definitive version selling and having content added throughout most of its life for more than 5yrs. Either way I see an acceleration not a decline in its future. If it does decline though, don’t rub it in my face too hard…I had good intentions lol.
 
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Pancracio17

Member
Pronouns
Him/They
Changed my vote from 6-7 to 7-8. This game is generating tremendous amount of engagement in Social Media. And while that metric is not and end all be all, I do think its going to end up selling significantly faster than 2.
 

PillFencer

Meat is murder
Member
Pronouns
they/them
Still believe it is a bit early for a new Splatoon title, as what they have showed could have been added as DLC and doesn't justify a new entry yet.
Hopefully they can change that point of view, and actually show the pontential Splatoon has with meaningful single player content.
Splatoon 3 follows an entirely new gameplay direction that was desparately needed for a healthier meta and a more fun game overall because Splatoon 2's initial design being rushed made the developers hit a wall where the concept of the series could no longer meaningfully advance towards its full potential no matter how many updates they could pull. The common theme with Splatoon 2's maps is that mid is a claustrophobic place with barely any approach or retreat options while the spawn has a massive area to paint on, the combination of which heavily rewards farming and spamming specials that are way too powerful at displacing the other team; making much of the play time about shooting empty areas far from action, being unable to engage in combat or with the objective because a giant laser is sniping you from the other side of the map with missiles soon following and by the way all the enemies have armor or being forced to fight in tiny closed areas (or in some cases, maps will be geared towards spawn camping). It's still an incredibly fun game at all skill levels because the core concepts are just that good, but a new game is necessary for further improvements and so far all signs are positive for Splatoon 3.

Cutting maps from Splatoon 2 isn't possible as DLC. Making an all new special lineup isn't possible as DLC. Changing all the weapon kits isn't possible as DLC. Adding mechanics like surge, squid roll and midair spawning as DLC isn't possible because all the maps have to be fit for them. Remaking all models, animations and the ink/lighting engine isn't possible as DLC. Splatoon 3 does all of this and much more with content, balance and customization (+ likely quality of life). Saying that the changes shown so far don't justify a new entry or that 5 years between entries is not enough time is holding Splatoon to an extremely unfair and unrealistic standard that Smash, Mario Kart and really almost no other multiplayer series ever reaches yet get a free pass on. Even if future presentations reveal stuff like apartments or new modes why would that be any more "sequel-worthy" than everything we've seen so far which apparently could have just been DLC? What could possibly be done to make Splatoon 1 finally have a "real sequel" instead of "DLC"? Making it something it's not like an open world RPG?
For a lot of new Horizon Audience this will be the first time they can pick-up Splatoon and face a lively community of other newbies, this needs to be highlighted as the popularity among younger females likely will lead to popularity among older ones that have bought a Switch due to the New Horizon.
It's very likely that this will give Splatoon 3 an entirely new audience to sell-to as I guess most people who bought Switch in the 2017-2018 period were either hardcore fans or young kids among whom the game remains HUGE.
Yeah I feel like this is spot-on. The marketing machine going full blast will reach so many players that weren't there when Splatoon 2 was active and the buzz around the game will be absolutely massive. I'm pretty sure it won't go below 6m now, though almost doubling S2 sales for 10m is another story lol
 
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