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[Bloomberg] Baldur's Gate 3: 2.5m Sales in Pre-Release [Up2: Around 15M]

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Courtesy of @Scoop who does not yet have thread posting permissions (and a few days old as it was overlooked), Baldur's Gate 3 sold 2.5m as of pre-release.

We also know the title has managed to hit upwards of 800k in CCU on Steam, which is a phenomenal stat and just shy of reaching Elden Ring's results.

Article can be found here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...arrives?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5c

So far, its prospects are looking good. The early buzz from players and reviewers has been mostly positive, and for months the game, which is landing during an era of heightened, popular interest in all things D&D, has hovered high on the top-selling charts on Steam. Piers Harding-Rolls, research director at Ampere Analysis, said he expects Baldur’s Gate 3 to be a hit, citing the strong fan reactions to an early-access version and noting that “preorders have been robust.”
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The ambitious scope of Baldur’s Gate 3 was made possible by another unusual move. In October 2020, Larian put the game into early-access mode, allowing players to buy and play through an unfinished version of its first act. More than 2.5 million people went on to purchase the game, which allowed it to stay financially viable even as the scope expanded and the development dragged on. Whereas most big-budget video games shy away from such moves because it can set a bad first expectation and muddle the final release, the decision worked for Baldur’s Gate 3, Vincke said, by letting players experiment with the game’s characters and systems without spoiling the entire story.
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Baldur's Gate 3 will end up being one of the best selling games of the year on Steam. I checked about 30 min ago, and it was still the number one best selling game in 76% of the countries tracked by Steam. This game is a monster in the making.
 
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Incredibly deserved, these guys stuck with their guns of delivering a hardcore proper RPG in a world where RPG has become a watered-down genre. They also got here the hard way, being a small dev for a long time until they got the experience and expertise to take it to the next level.
 
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Standing ovation for Larian, they deserve it for their craft. How does this compare to other CRPGs?
 
Amazing results and that CCU peak feels like it came out of nowhere.

I actually wonder, EA not included, if BG3 sold more than FF16 in the same time period ?
 
bf2142 said:
Amazing results and that CCU peak feels like it came out of nowhere.

I actually wonder, EA not included, if BG3 sold more than FF16 in the same time period ?
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Good question, I feel like it's close. Judging by the Steam player chart I would say yes, but most of those could be people that bought Early.
 
What a crazy performance. I dont think anyone ever expect a niche PC Rpg Ip will suddenly have such huge success there. Larian studios is going to be ordering non stop DoM perignon there for celebration lol.
 
Really mimics Elden Rings success last year. No one ever thought a hardcore Fromsoft game would ever blow up and hit the casual audience that way and now it’s being repeated this year with a CRPG. I hope it wins GOTY, we need new blood in the industry with new ideas.

And yes, I’m aware Larian is over 25 years old.
 
Remember_spinal said:
Really mimics Elden Rings success last year. No one ever thought a hardcore Fromsoft game would ever blow up and hit the casual audience that way and now it’s being repeated this year with a CRPG. I hope it wins GOTY, we need new blood in the industry with new ideas.

And yes, I’m aware Larian is over 25 years old.
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I don't think it's quite at Elden Ring's level yet, as we still need to see Baldur's Gate 3's sales performance on consoles. Elden Ring shattered records on both PC and console. Until we see Baldur's Gate 3's console sales, I don't think we can declare its success so far equivalent to Elden Ring's just yet. But on the PC side, yeah, it's absolutely shattered expectations. Nobody could have saw this coming. Now, let's see what happens on the console side.

At this point in time, I think Baldur's Gate 3 is the frontrunner for RPG of the year. As for overall game of the year, this category is so crazy stacked, it's insane. Right now, I think the frontrunners for overall game of the year will come down to Zelda Tears of the Kingdom and Baldur's Gate 3. Maybe Starfield will make it in there also, but that's a big unknown at this point. But once it releases, we'll know at that point if it has a chance.
 
Good to hear this success. Gonna buy this game this week and feelsgood to support a studio putting time and effort making a good game.
 
Remember_spinal said:
Really mimics Elden Rings success last year. No one ever thought a hardcore Fromsoft game would ever blow up and hit the casual audience that way and now it’s being repeated this year with a CRPG. I hope it wins GOTY, we need new blood in the industry with new ideas.

And yes, I’m aware Larian is over 25 years old.
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I mean, Dark Souls 3 had already hit 10 million and even very hardcore character action Sekiro did 5 million very fast. The writing was already on the wall.
 
I find it amusing how absolutely massive BG3 is going to while simultaneously be missing entirely from Circana and GSD charts in August due to how they handle digital coverage. Really goes to show how badly misrepresentative retail trackers are at covering the actual videogaming marketplace.
 
fiendcode said:
I find it amusing how absolutely massive BG3 is going to while simultaneously be missing entirely from Circana and GSD charts in August due to how they handle digital coverage. Really goes to show how badly misrepresentative retail trackers are at covering the actual videogaming marketplace.
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Yeah, it's very unfortunate. I wish the industry wasn't so secretive with regards to disclosing sales numbers. At least we can guess total sold by looking at the number of Steam reviews. Total reviews are sitting at 116,089. If we guessstimate that 2.5% of people left reviews, then that means the game has sold 4.64 mil units so far.
 
nextgeneration said:
Yeah, it's very unfortunate. I wish the industry wasn't so secretive with regards to disclosing sales numbers. At least we can guess total sold by looking at the number of Steam reviews. Total reviews are sitting at 116,089. If we guessstimate that 2.5% of people left reviews, then that means the game has sold 4.64 mil units so far.
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What is that guesstimate based on? Is there a precedent?
 
BTB123 said:
What is that guesstimate based on? Is there a precedent?
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gameworldobserver.com

Steam reviews/sales ratio approaching 60x for new hit games, so how do we estimate sales in 2022? | Game World Observer

Probably the most popular way to estimate game sales on Steam is to add a certain multiplier to their review count. The problem is that the median ratio for big new releases has gone way up over time, so it is time to make some adjustments.
gameworldobserver.com gameworldobserver.com

“And so 1 in 20-25 players leave a review, compared to the 1 in 50-60 that is more normal with a large-scale game.”

Also, we can safely rule out 5% of the people who left reviews, since we know that presales totaled 2.5 mil. If we take 116,089 and divided by 5%, that would only be 2.32 mil.
 
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So after the strong launch, we can safely assume that (compared to some other big 2023 games) it's going to be ahead of FF16 even prior to it's console launch, and there's a strong possibility it will be at or in excess of RE4 remake before long (4.9 million per Capcom's results), if it's not already. I expect that PC will be the strongest platform, but there are signs it will do quite well on console too.
 
This is the game all of my friends are talking about nonstop, I haven't seen anything like this since... well, TOTK. So before that, I haven't seen anything like this since Elden Ring in terms of people talking about it nonstop.
 
Tiddums said:
So after the strong launch, we can safely assume that (compared to some other big 2023 games) it's going to be ahead of FF16 even prior to it's console launch, and there's a strong possibility it will be at or in excess of RE4 remake before long (4.9 million per Capcom's results), if it's not already. I expect that PC will be the strongest platform, but there are signs it will do quite well on console too.
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I think it'll easily clear 6+ mil before the end of this month. I wouldn't be surprised if it approaches 7 mil.
 
nextgeneration said:
I think it'll easily clear 6+ mil before the end of this month. I wouldn't be surprised if it approaches 7 mil.
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It seems plausible to me but I don't want to get ahead of myself with bold predictions.

I've known the game would be big for years - it's been selling steadily in EA and getting a great reception since 2020 - but I didn't know precisely how big. It's definitely a breakout moment for Larian. And they needed it, because they ballooned to 6x the staff count they had when Divinity: Original Sin 2 shipped. This is a monumental increase in development budget for their projects, and it seems to have paid off.
 
Tiddums said:
It seems plausible to me but I don't want to get ahead of myself with bold predictions.

I've known the game would be big for years - it's been selling steadily in EA and getting a great reception since 2020 - but I didn't know precisely how big. It's definitely a breakout moment for Larian. And they needed it, because they ballooned to 6x the staff count they had when Divinity: Original Sin 2 shipped. This is a monumental increase in development budget for their projects, and it seems to have paid off.
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My estimations may actually be too conservative, believe it or not. I like to use total number of Steam reviews to measure possible total sales. This morning, at 8:17 AM PST, total reviews sat at 116,089. As of this post, it's now at 120,160 reviews. In less than 12 hrs, it's already amassed an additional 4,071 reviews. If we divide that by 5% (people who left reviews), that's 81,420 units sold. The 81,420 number is a lowball number, btw, as it's very likely higher than that. This game is selling at a breakneck pace right now.

I'm sure by the end of the month (most likely sooner than that), we'll get a tweet from Larion Studios, letting us know how many units the game has sold. Again, I think my numbers are actually too conservative, so let's see if I end up being right or wrong. LOL.
 
It's worth pointing out that as of right now, Baldur's Gate 3 is the #1 best selling game in 25 of the 29 countries tracked by Steam, which is an increase from 21 counties from about a week ago. This game seems to be gathering momentum and strength as time goes by. Most games work in reverse - they lose momentum and strength as time goes by. When Larion eventually announces how many copies this game has sold, be prepared for a VERY LARGE number.
 
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It's obviously still too early to say, but I wonder if Baldur's Gate 3 can outsell Elden Ring on PC. This game may very outsell Hogwarts Legacy by the end of this month, if it hasn't already.
 
So happy that Baldur’s gate is selling so great!! Let’s hope they use that money to keep making great games with the talented team they have.
 
nextgeneration said:
It's worth pointing out that as of right now, Baldur's Gate 3 is the #1 best selling game in 24 of the 28 countries tracked by Steam, which is an increase from 21 counties from about a week ago. This game seems to be gathering momentum and strength as time goes by. Most games work in reverse - they lose momentum and strength as time goes by. When Larion eventually announces how many copies this game has sold, be prepared for a VERY LARGE number.
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XBOX version is delayed indefinitely. PS5 version is delayed by a month and no physical release. Little chance it does anywhere near Elden Ring/Hogwarts numbers.
 
derby_440 said:
XBOX version is delayed indefinitely. PS5 version is delayed by a month and no physical release. Little chance it does anywhere near Elden Ring/Hogwarts numbers.
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Maybe I should have clarified better. I'm comparing PC to PC numbers here. Will Baldur's Gate 3 on PC outsell Elden Ring on PC? If we include consoles, agree, no way Baldur's Gate 3 outsells Elden Ring. But if we're just comparing PC to PC only, that becomes a much more interesting contest. But again, too early to say right now.

As for Hogwarts, this is a PC to PC comparison also. And for this, Baldur's Gate 3 will definitely outsell Hogwarts on PC. But if we include consoles, yes, no way Baldur's Gate 3 outsells Hogwarts.
 
nextgeneration said:
Maybe I should have clarified better. I'm comparing PC to PC numbers here. Will Baldur's Gate 3 on PC outsell Elden Ring on PC? If we include consoles, agree, no way Baldur's Gate 3 outsells Elden Ring. But if we're just comparing PC to PC only, that becomes a much more interesting contest. But again, too early to say right now.

As for Hogwarts, this is a PC to PC comparison also. And for this, Baldur's Gate 3 will definitely outsell Hogwarts on PC. But if we include consoles, yes, no way Baldur's Gate 3 outsells Hogwarts.
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It will get very close if not outsell Elden Ring on PC. With PS5 version it may even do well overall. Sony did promote BD3 on their showcase and maybe hype around PC version is helping it because not many people expected this to explode.
 
ER total is roughly half PC sales overall, I expect BG3 will weight a lot heaver towards PC but 10m+ is still a tall order for any game.
 
nextgeneration said:
As for Hogwarts, this is a PC to PC comparison also. And for this, Baldur's Gate 3 will definitely outsell Hogwarts on PC. But if we include consoles, yes, no way Baldur's Gate 3 outsells HHogwarts.
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Why do you think Baldur's Gate 3 will "definitely outsell Hogwarts on PC" ?

Hogwarts had better numbers even without the help of early access and I think it will have better legs, because the Harry Potter IP is more popular than D&D.
 
I watched a little bit of gameplay earlier and I simply don't see this game having the type of universal appeal that will translate to Hogwarts, TOTK or even Elden Ring type sales.

I'm sure it's fantastic for what it offers, but ultimately it's a point and click PC game.
 
The math just does not add up.

The article states that 2.5 million people preordered the game. I am sure much more people bought it than preordered because of the hype it gets since its launch.

And still, Larian published some stats about the first week (weekend) of the game and it basically shows the starting classes/races with numbers. It tells that a bit less than 2 million games were started. So assuming that the vast majority of people who bought the game also started to play it it means that the game sold around 2 million units up until the end of its starting week.

4177678-classinfographic.png
 
Alandring said:
Why do you think Baldur's Gate 3 will "definitely outsell Hogwarts on PC" ?

Hogwarts had better numbers even without the help of early access and I think it will have better legs, because the Harry Potter IP is more popular than D&D.
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User reviews on Steam are a good indicator of copies sold. Right now, Hogwarts Legacy has 154,392 reviews. Baldur's Gate 3 already has 147,330 reviews and will surpass Hogwarts Legacy very soon. Baldur's is selling at a super fast pace right now, as these reviews are climbing very quickly right now. I expect Baldur's reviews to surpass Hogwart's reviews within a week from now.

As for legs, Hogwarts Legacy global sales rankings for weeks 1, 2, 3, 4 are as follows:

week 1 - #1
week 2 - #2
week 3 - #4
week 4 - #6

Baldur's is as follows:

week 1 - #1
week 2 - should be #1 (week isn't over yet, but it's tracking to be #1 )
weeks 3/4 - I predict Baldur's rankings will remain at #1 or be close, as in top 3 for weeks 3/4.

I think Baldur's legs will outpace Hogwarts on PC. While Baldur's is essentially a D&D game, it's clearly broken through and has hit beyond its core audience of D&D users. It's hit mainstream now on PC, much like Elden Ring did on PC and console last year. And from the looks of it, Hogwarts is also considerably a better seller on console than PC. The reverse will be true of Baldur's, where Baldur's will be a considerably better seller on PC than console.

Adding this one last thing here, as this demonstrates that worldwide, it's hit with the masses and shows the legs of the game on PC. As of 8/13/23, 9:30 AM PST, Steam is showing it's still the #1 best selling game in 25 of the 29 countries that Steam tracks. This is insane performance. Baldur's has a stranglehold on the #1 spot worldwide, and it doesn't look like it's losing that anytime soon.

Windom Earle said:
I watched a little bit of gameplay earlier and I simply don't see this game having the type of universal appeal that will translate to Hogwarts, TOTK or even Elden Ring type sales.

I'm sure it's fantastic for what it offers, but ultimately it's a point and click PC game.
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I thought the same at first, as Baldur's appears to be a pretty hardcore game that would not translate well/cross over to the masses. But the sales data we're seeing so far on PC on a worldwide level is showing the opposite. But let's see where the game stands many months from now on PC.
 
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According to the post on weibo from Embassy of Belgium in China, Baldur's Gate 3 sold 5.2 million on Steam as of August 16th.
- 该游戏在PC游戏平台Steam上，销量达520万份，同时在线用户数超过87万，游戏好评率达到94.3%。
Translation: The game has sold 5.2 million copies on Steam, with concurrent online players exceeding 870,000. The game has received a positive review rating of 94.3%.
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FFR48 said:
According to the post on weibo from Embassy of Belgium in China, Baldur's Gate 3 sold 5.2 million on Steam as of August 16th.
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This sound about right. Cyberpunk 2077 sold 7 million on steam first month with 1,054,000 CCU. With PS5 release and good legs on PC, BG3 will likely top 10 million this year.
 
I mean, BG3 is still in a fairly niche subgenre. And its preorder numbers were built up through a years-long EA process. It's still far beyond anybody could have expected even two months ago.
 
fiendcode said:
5.2m seems... low? With 2.5m presold via EA and the CCU figures (800k+) I would've thought higher after 2 weeks?

For comparison this is potentially more than 1m less than Diablo IV did on just PC week one.
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Cyberpunk 2077 sold 7 million on steam first month. This sound about right for BG3.
 
fiendcode said:
5.2m seems... low? With 2.5m presold via EA and the CCU figures (800k+) I would've thought higher after 2 weeks?

For comparison this is potentially more than 1m less than Diablo IV did on just PC week one.
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2.5M presold via early access over several years. That doesn't have to lead to massive launch sales.
 
BTB123 said:
2.5M presold via early access over several years. That doesn't have to lead to massive launch sales.
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I guess I just expected higher given the CCUs and industry chatter around the game. Just doubling EA seemed a little deflating after we had people projecting much higher upthread.

supercommodore said:
Is that surprising? Diablo is a much bigger franchise with just as much of a PC-centric fanbase. The fact it is close to Diablo is impressive in and of itself.
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Diablo's probably not the best comparison given it's in a different subgenre (action vs turn based) but it's also not on Steam. Which is pretty much a sales death sentence unless you're apparently Blizzard or Minecraft.

This year's pretty big for CRPGs though, I'm super curious how Starfield compares now and obviously BG3 on console.

Remember_spinal said:
Wait, 5.2 million copies on one platform is underwhelming now? Lol
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Hey, I'm not the one who was comparing it to Elden Ring. ;)
 
fiendcode said:
5.2m seems... low? With 2.5m presold via EA and the CCU figures (800k+) I would've thought higher after 2 weeks?

For comparison this is potentially more than 1m less than Diablo IV did on just PC week one.
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Diablo is one of the biggest IPs in gaming, BG is...not.
 
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