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Biggest Pokémon launches in the UK [Now with Scarlet/Violet]

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Bruno MB said:
Anything below Sword / Shield will be disappointing.

Sun / Moon is most likely untouchable, no Nintendo game at retail will ever come close to touching it.
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I would not say it,digital has been growing during the last years,so it is possible to sell less at retail.
 
I'm surprised at some of the really high predictions in here. I'm still thinking its going to be right around Sword/Shield numbers {~190k). Anything 200k+ would be excellent.
 
Aside from the big rise in digital sales over the last few years, recent Switch titles have had kinda mixed retail launch sales in the UK. Curious if the same will happen to Pokemon to some extent, or if it being Pokemon will override that.

BTW both Pokemon SKUs are currently sitting above God of War Ragnarok on Amazon UK. Scarlet is #1, even above the PS Store gift cards.
 
Xevross said:
I'm surprised at some of the really high predictions in here. I'm still thinking its going to be right around Sword/Shield numbers {~190k). Anything 200k+ would be excellent.
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I think S/V should open higher than Sw/Sh almost everywhere, and with a significant margin.

The UK, however, I am uncertain about because Sword/Shield was based on the region and the overall Switch software softness these past months here.
 
Lelouch0612 said:
I think S/V should open higher than Sw/Sh almost everywhere, and with a significant margin.

The UK, however, I am uncertain about because Sword/Shield was based on the region and the overall Switch software softness these past months here.
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That's part of the reason yeah. I think there will be growth over Sw/Sh but most of it will be digital. Sw/Sh was already pretty huge in the UK, which is why I think matching the physical sales of that would still be very good. I will be very pleasantly surprised if it does blast past the ~190-200k mark (or maybe unpleasantly if this one turns out to be another dud of a game).
 
BTB123 said:
He should've specified that it's the second biggest Pokémon launch only with physical. Including digital if it's over 220k physical it should clearly be way higher than Sun/Moon at 290k.
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Nintendo and digital is a very volatile yo guess, specially in the UK.
 
storres said:
Nintendo and digital is a very volatile yo guess, specially in the UK.
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Dring said he heard Splatoon 3 had way above 30% digital. Pokémon would only need 24% digital to top Sun/Moon and that asumes it's just barely above Fifa, which it doesn't seem to be.

Why would Pokémon have a digital share way below 30%? Even lower than Mario + Rabbids. I thought UK was specifically the country with higher digital, especially for games with such big multiplayer components.
 
BTB123 said:
Dring said he heard Splatoon 3 had way above 30% digital. Pokémon would only need 24% digital to top Sun/Moon and that asumes it's just barely above Fifa, which it doesn't seem to be.

Why would Pokémon have a digital share way below 30%? Even lower than Mario + Rabbids. I thought UK was specifically the country with higher digital, especially for games with such big multiplayer components.
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It's indeed barely above FIFA, 4% more
 
Necroxid said:
So if I did the math right, SV launch sales should be 228k, with double pack counted as one. Also SwSh comparison doesn't line up with the others
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MegaXZero said:
Unless I'm screwing up the math I can't square all three comparative percentages with what we have in the OP. Someone should ask him if double pack counts as 1 or 2 copies
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Only SwSh comparison seems off, FIFA, BDSP and Arceus ones all line up to about 228k copies sold at launch. Double pack counted 6%, so total launch sales with DP counted as two is about 241k
 
MegaXZero said:
Which happens to be about 36% up from the doublepack as 1 number for SwSh in the OP. Curious.
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Yeah I was about to add it but it seems too odd, comparing a DP = 1 with a DP = 2 when all other comparisons are based on a DP = 1 it's too weird
 
Necroxid said:
Only SwSh comparison seems off, FIFA, BDSP and Arceus ones all line up to about 228k copies sold at launch. Double pack counted 6%, so total launch sales with DP counted as two is about 241k
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Going off of PLA I got 224k, going off of Sw/Sh I got 240k. I assume he meant BDSP, not the original D/P. So going off of that I got 222k. None of them work together.
Edit: I rounded all numbers down.
 
If we count the Double Pack as one copy sold and use the Pokemon numbers provided from the OP, here are the range of estimates for Scarlet/Violet's launch:
  • 25% bigger than Sword/Shield: ~177K × 1.25 = ~221K
  • 70% bigger than Brilliant Diamond/Shining Pearl: ~131K × 1.70 = 223K
  • 56% bigger than Legends Arceus : ~144K × 1.56 = ~224K
  • 4% bigger than FIFA 23: ~220K × 1.04 = ~229K
So 221K < Scarlet/Violet < 229K

If we count the Double Pack as two copies sold, then it's 236K < Scarlet/Violet < 243K
 
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Do we know, is the Sun Moon number with double pack as 1 or 2?

Edit: or maybe there was no double pack
 
Could it be that we had sword/ shield wrong? If it was 177k with double pack counted as 2, then ~163k with it counted as 1, that gives about the same number for S/V as the other two pokemon comparisons ~222k.

Either way, that's a massive launch.
 
Xevross said:
Could it be that we had sword/ shield wrong? If it was 177k with double pack counted as 2, then ~163k with it counted as 1, that gives about the same number for S/V as the other two pokemon comparisons ~222k.

Either way, that's a massive launch.
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Hmm that's quite a possibility. We have to dig up where the Sw/Sh double pack info comes from.

EDIT:

As @Bruno MB smartly pointed out, it is possible that the double pack is missing from the Sw/Sh total.

If that's the case, then the total would be 222.000 units, for each of the comparisons.
 
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Update with Scarlet/Violet

Biggest UK Pokémon Mainline Game Launches​


POKEMONUK.png
 
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Nice to get the correction from Chris. So now we know, 25% bigger than Sw/Sh is closer to expected but still a really great result.
 
Pooroomoo said:
Are we more certain of the SW/SH launch number (~177k) than the FIFA23 launch number (~220K)?
(FIFA number + 4% = ~228k)
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I think there's a much bigger error in the FIFA number yeah. The three Pokémon comparisons point to 222-224k so I'd put it at 223k.
 
Xevross said:
I think there's a much bigger error in the FIFA number yeah. The three Pokémon comparisons point to 222-224k so I'd put it at 223k.
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Yeah, the FIFA 23 sales estimate is based on the percentage change from FIFA 22's sales estimate, which itself is based on the percentage change from FIFA 21, which itself is based on FIFA 20, and so on and so forth. The error will compound over the years.
 
Pretty much expected exactly this, lower physical than Sun and Moon but definitely higher with digital
 
Big number for Poke in UK there. Anything open world is like goldmine for gaming nowadays huh
 
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