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Avatar Bet Thread: will The Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom sell over or under 5 million in 2024?

Will Echoes of Wisdom sell over or under 5 million units in calendar year 2024?

  • Total voters
    94
  • Poll closed .
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Jimmy Joe

Jimmy Joe

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The Echoes of Wisdom Avatar Bet Thread


THE CONCEPT​

You know, betting monopoly money is fine and all. It's what the betting league is for.

But what if you bet your pride?

What if you bet your face?

Welcome, my friends, to Install Base's first major community avatar bet thread!

In this thread we will be making a wager as to how much The Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom will sell as of the end of the calendar year 2024. Will it be over 5 million, or under 5 million? That's a really high number for a top-down Zelda! It'd undoubtedly end up the best-selling single SKU of a top-down Zelda so far!

SOME BACKGROUND​

Originally this thread was going to be about launch quarter sales, but at the suggestion of @Lelouch0612 it has been expanded to include everything through the end of 2024.

Here is some important context to help you make your bet

Link's Awakening

Link's Awakening is the most comparable release to Echoes of Wisdom. It has a similar art-style, have very close launch dates, and they are both top-down Zelda games. Now, Echoes of Wisdom is a brand-new game (some argue it's a spin-off, even!) and Link's Awakening is a remake, so they aren't perfectly comparable, but a little bit of context never hurt anybody.

In its opening quarter, consisting of 11 days, Link's Awakening sold 3.13 million units:

The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening Remake's first quarter sales. 3.13 million total, with 350 thousand in Japan and 2.78 million in the rest of the world.


At the end of the year in 2019, with another quarter, Link's Awakening sold an additional 1.06 million units to finish at 4.19:

The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening Remake's sales through the end of 2019. 4.19 million total, with 420 thousand in Japan and 3.77 million in the rest of the world.


So if Echoes of Wisdom finished at 5 million units at the end of year, it will be ahead of Link's Awakening by 810,000 units! Yowza!

However, there's a good argument to be made that Echoes of Wisdom won't do that, and that argument is...

The Sequel Problem

It is a common belief that sequels in the Zelda series, on the same console, tend to sell less than their immediate predecessors. And, indeed, the numbers seem to bear that out (all numbers taken from @Celine 's excellent thread, found here)

The Legend of Zelda sold 6.51m units lifetime, while Adventure of Link sold 4.38
Ocarina of Time sold 7.60m, while Majora's Mask sold 3.36
Twilight Princess (Wii) sold 7.50m, while Skyward Sword (Wii) sold 3.67m
Breath of the Wild has sold 32.05m, while Tears of the Kingdom has sold 20.80m
The combined sales of Link's Awakening on the Game Boy are 6.05m, while the combined sales of the Oracle duology are 3.99m

As the Switch version of Link's Awakening sits at a cozy 6.63 million units sold as of June 2023, observant readers (and bettors) will note that if Echoes of Wisdom sells 5 million in its first calendar year, it will very likely be the first new title to outsell its predecessor on the same system. An unprecedented success! Can it do it? Is it even possible? Sequels like Tears of the Kingdom tend to be much more front-loaded, but if Echoes of Wisdom is doomed to sell less than Link's Awakening long-term, would that even matter?


THE STAKES​

The stakes are simple. If you lose the bet, you will have to use an avatar for 100 days, which is the length of time from Echoes of Wisdom's announcement until its release.

The pictures below are my suggested avatars, but can be replaced if anyone wants to make something nicer/funnier/generally better-looking.

If the "Under 5 Million" bettors lose:

Serious-looking Zelda from Echoes of Wisdom with a banner that reads HATER


If the "Over 5 Million" bettors lose:

Serious-looking Zelda from Echoes of Wisdom with a banner that reads FANATIC


In the exceedingly unlikely case that the game sells exactly 5 million units, rounded to the nearest ten thousand in Nintendo's supplementary material for their nine-month ended Dec 31 financial report, everyone loses and everyone wears their respective avatar.


HOW TO PARTICIPATE​

I've included four options in the thread poll. If you want to register your prediction without betting your avatar, please select one of the first two choices with the word "Coward" in brackets. If you wish to participate in the avatar bet, choose one of the second pair of choices with the words "Avatar Bet" in brackets. You can only choose one, and can't change your vote, so pick carefully!

If you wish to override your choice, or don't want to vote in the poll but still want to participate, please post your intentions in the thread!


WHEN AND HOW THE BET IS SETTLED​

Nintendo usually posts their nine-month reports near the end of January or the beginning of February. At that time, we will surely know whether Echoes of Wisdom has failed or succeeded in this arbitrary metric. So, the bet will be settled in one of two cases:

1. When Nintendo's 9-month report ending on December 31, 2024 is posted.
2. If Echoes of Wisdom sells over 5 million units in the 6-month report for the period ending on September 30, 2024, we will call the bet early.


HAPPY BETTING
​
And that's it! Let's shake on it.
 
I would once again like to reiterate: the avatars in question aren't locked in stone, and if anyone wants to make something better then feel free.

I'll also register myself as believing that Echoes of Wisdom will sell north of 5 million by the end of 2024. I'm ready for this game to outsell Link's Awakening and utterly wreck the Zelda Sequel Theory, or at least add a caveat that Link's Awakening doesn't count because it's a remake.
 
Just for the record, anyone can post here

You're not committing to the bet unless you say you do or vote in that option

I know some of y'all got thoughts on how the game will go, so feel free to argue about it
 
I'm just going to point out it's technically possible for Echoes of Wisdom to clear 5m for the year and still fall short of Link's Awakening lifetime (I don't think this will happen though).
 
Aostia82 said:
Results will be based on Nintendo financial report, so I'm assuming distributed + digital, correct?
Click to expand...

Yes. As Lelouch suggested, part of the reason the bet covers two quarters instead of one is to decrease the effect of any potential over-shipping at launch

But if the first quarter ships over five million units, well, those copies will eventually sell

Joseki said:
@Jimmy Joe can you also make a winning avatar? Maybe make Zelda smile by putting her mouth upside down.
Click to expand...

Now to be clear, no, I'm not going to make "winner avatars" part of the bet, because people generally don't want to change their avatars

But if you do want to, you can definitely feel free to use these in the case that you win!

Ax9O1aL.png

cwRa9eC.png
 
Obviously betting on over 5M

I see no reason why it should suffer from being a sequel when it's not a sequel
 
I don't think it will cross 5 million, sign me up for the avatar bet.

I think Link's Awakening had some unique circumstances, being a beloved Gameboy title. I don't see the same hype for this one. Peach Showtime disappointed me a little, and I have no idea what sort of appeal games like this have right now when the Switch is so old.

I expect around 2.5 million in the first week and then landing on around 3.5 million at the end of the year.
 
I could see it crossing 5 million eventually, but for 2024 that seems a little steep. I'd be happy to be proven wrong, though!
 
Over 5 million avatar bet for me.
I don't think the sequel fatigue will affect this game, since it isn't LA's sequel. It has the same art style admittedly, but it rides on the hype of being the first LoZ game with a playable Zelda, and its gameplay seems to be a well balanced mixture of classic top-down Zelda and creative BoTW design.
 
This is the first new 2D Zelda game in 9 years (Triforce Heroes wasn't particularly well received) and the first single player focused one in 11 years.
While it has a similar artstyle as Link's Awakening it clearly sets itself apart and is significantly bigger and more ambitious.
 
I voted in the coward position, but I would like to publicly and officially rescind that, I'll go in on this and make it an avatar bet for 5mil+.
 
I only wear Slime Knight, so I will do the bet for 5M, but call me a coward.
 
Ten days remain until Echoes of Wisdom launches

Excitement for the game seems to be building at a steady rate; not out of sync with any major launch, either positive or negative

How're we all feeling about our bets? If you want to change your vote, there are just over six days remaining as of this post
 
Would like to be wrong, but don't think this one passes 5m in that period. I've never and will never involve myself in an avatar bet though so I voted that way.
 
Milannoir said:
I don't think the sequel fatigue will affect this game, since it isn't LA's sequel. It has the same art style admittedly, but it rides on the hype of being the first LoZ game with a playable Zelda, and its gameplay seems to be a well balanced mixture of classic top-down Zelda and creative BoTW design.
Click to expand...
I agree. Not only is this game not a sequel to LA, LAHD was itself a remake of an almost 30-year-old game designed to be played on a system that had 8 KB (kilobytes) of RAM to work with.

Sure, they gave it a fresh face, smoother screen transitions, and some nice QOL of features, but beyond those cosmetic touch-ups it's still essentially the same 10-hour GameBoy game it was in 1993 (and they asked the full standard 60 skrilla for it, too). Its potential audience was always limited to mostly only retro gamers and Zelda diehards.

Echoes is a brand new game that's much more a spiritual successor to Wild/Tears in its open world design, seems like it'll be at least 2-3 times as long as to play LA, and plays like a modern game with a degree of interactive detail that's unprecedented among previous Zelda "handheld" titles - there's a quest log! you can ride horses! you have different outfits and accessories! you can make smoothies from any ingredient combination your heart desires! you can climb over and walk on top of the trees that served as walls in LAHD! you can jump into water from any nearby point on land, instead of needing to find a designated water entry point!

The casual audience that made Wild/Tears best sellers but had no interest in LAHD didn't skip LAHD because of the art style, which is the only thing it shares with Echoes. They skipped it because they weren't Zelda or retro gaming enthusiasts, and if they were aware of its existence at all, they lost interest upon learning that it was a faithful near 1:1 remake of a 1993 GameBoy game that they never played and most likely weren't even alive for.

From what I can see in my corner of the internet, I think a lot of that same casual audience is excited for Echoes, and they aren't in any way thinking of it as a sequel to LAHD that I can see.
 
Voted Under 5 million units.

And I'll stake my confused-looking avatar on that!

Reasoning: I am not seeing much marketing buzz, and combined with this being a 2D entry and the Switch losing some market luster after such a mighty run, 5 million seems too bullish.

(That said, they will have a sale from me)
 


Well, all right. So it's closer to 57 hours remaining until the poll will close, at which time I will stop accepting new bets!

I will keep accepting manual vote changes for.... we'll say one week after poll closing
 
I'm late to announce this but you can consider betting formally CLOSED

If anyone is feeling scared about their bets, say so now, because on the 29th we'll be permanently locked in and your fate will be in Zelda's super-deformed hands
 
I would have been a bit more nervous about this, but the game is basically going to be THE holiday Switch title for this year (sorry, Brothership fans), which should dramatically improve its fortunes.
 
Jimmy Joe said:
I'm late to announce this but you can consider betting formally CLOSED

If anyone is feeling scared about their bets, say so now, because on the 29th we'll be permanently locked in and your fate will be in Zelda's super-deformed hands
Click to expand...

So harsh lol, game coming out in 3 days, let's hope reviews are good
 
Lelouch0612 said:
Could you have a final summary of everyone's bets?
Click to expand...
I most certainly will, never you fear! It'll make it a world easier to keep track of everyone and to @ all the losers on the Day of Fate, and to show which side is most cowardly
 
Pre-release Summary New
  • Index
    • Given the level of activity in this thread, and that reviews are starting to come out, it seems like it would be a perfectly good time to have a

    SUMMARY OF VOTES​

    First, a listing of all the votes, placed under spoiler tags to reduce the room they're going to take up while maintaining legibility!

    @sheep
    @Rogue Agent
    @saicho
    @Charamiwa
    @Jbone916
    @Uniomni
    @sixsilum
    @Sealife01
    @Spindy
    @Procheno
    @Liha
    @Smelly
    @Bad Contestant
    @SkyerIst
    @Maluigi
    @HAB
    @WaddleD123
    @Acriact
    @Mekanos
    @Bullexto
    @Chamozzarella
    @Corpe
    @BlueDragoon

    @hannibunny2411
    @Peleo
    @Xevross
    @Anihsarog
    @JC317
    @ItsOKAY
    @RennanNT
    @Nevermeltice
    @storres
    @Joxer
    @Futaba11037
    @Bufasa
    @Cubo
    @jman2050
    @TheSilentWombat
    @Undead Warrior
    @Banjokazooie1992
    @KtSlime
    @JustALurker
    @Aardappel
    @Paki33
    @ConJJ
    @Kmds
    @GuyWhoDoesn’tPost
    @retro
    @MOKU
    @Night
    @aSkyCookie
    @Lukitoo
    @Ruddlerstein
    @Agazorth
    @Jojo
    @Res Einlahtan

    @Aostia82
    @Linkmarco
    @uncleoptimus
    @balgajo
    @ESCK Swiss
    @Bernd Lauert
    @Earandilus
    @Rash78
    @Kirby
    @Nine
    @aegisx9
    @Gimmick
    @Trajan
    @Littleterritory

    @Lelouch0612
    @Tbone5189
    @Worldhopper Hoid
    @Jimmy Joe
    @Garlic
    @Joseki
    @Rouk'
    @Milannoir
    @Bodokoh
    @Eddy
    @Malden
    @romanithegreat
    @Seiez
    @BTB123
    @Pikachupwnage
    @JavelinR
    @Tamino
    @Thiefcoal
    @Jatinder5ingh
    @emiko
    @Digikiki
    @Terrell
    @SRB2kaiZ
    @daclynk

    Total votes per category:

    Under 5 Million (Coward): 23 (24.5%)
    Over 5 Million (Coward): 33 (35.1%)
    Under 5 Million (Avatar Bet): 14 (14.9%)
    Over 5 Million (Avatar Bet): 24 (25.5%)
    Total Participants: 94 (100%)

    Overall, the community is considerably more confident that the game will sell over 5 million units in 2024, with 60.6% of those polled affirming the higher end of expectations

    Coward Stats

    The total coward rate is 59.6%!
    Those who voted Under 5 Million have a coward rate of 62.2%!
    Those who voted Over 5 Million have a coward rate of 57.9%!

    By a very slim margin, people who believe the game will sell under 5 million are more cowardly. Is it a lack of surety? Is it a deeper sense of pride in expression? No one knows, because that wasn't in the rubric of the polling.

    This post will serve as the official compendium of bettors, and if anyone wants me to make any changes until about 96 hours from now, they will be reflected in this post.

    Reviews are coming in. We'll have official numbers out of Famitsu soon.

    See you all on the other side.
     
  • New
  • Index
    • MC of 86-87% should NOT hurt the sales of the game by a noticeable margin, because this score is still very good and 2D Zeldas usually have a lower MC than 3D iterations. If the game would have a score of 70% MC or something close to this range, then I could see it suffering from this. But 86% should not change the sales game here at all
     
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