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August 2023 NPD/Circana (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Wednesday, September 13 [RESULTS IN]

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NEW RULES + EXPLANATION
Because Michael Pachter of Wedbush Securities decided to stop subscribing to NPD last year, access to retail NPD appears to have been massively limited. Whether that's due to firms getting NPD through Pachter or agreeing with him that NPD data is worthless without digital sales (only video game companies that are on the digital board have access), leaks of hardware numbers might've dried up.

Fear not! I have a plan to remedy this set back so that this game can live on spirit. We will be transitioning away from predicting hardware units by console and instead be predicting Total Video Game Hardware Revenue and Order Of Consoles.

Every month NPD releases hardware revenue along with which console was in first place. We can always ask Mat Piscatella for the #2 console if he doesn't initially provide it.

How This Will Work
Predict how much revenue will be generated by Hardware for the given month as such

Good/Bad Formatting
Code:
Good                Bad
[REV] 405M          [REV] 400.5 million
[REV] 405,000,000   [REV] 405.000.000
[REV] 405000000     [REV] - 405000000

Then: Predict the order of each console FOR REVENUE as such

1. [NSW]
2. [PS5]
3. [XBS]

THE ABOVE IS IMPORTANT

The above is how you rank each console in terms of REVENUE. If you put NSW at 1., you are predicting NSW will be #1 in revenue.

Points
Hardware Revenue will be 50 points and follows how the hardware unit points work.

50 points * (percentage of correct revenue for hardware); anything over 100% difference = 0 points.

Correct Order would be the following in points.

If #1 correct = 18
If #2 correct = 10
If #3 correct = 7

If All Three correct = 15


That would be a total of 50 points to earn from console placements.

100 points in total to earn a month from the above two, plus bonus points for finishing in the Top 10 of hardware revenue.

#1 - 17 points
#2 - 13 points
#3 - 11 points
#4 - 9 points
#5 - 7 points
#6 - 5 points
#7 - 4 points
#8 - 3 points
#9 - 2 points
#10 - 1 point

Tradition Is Dead?
Not exactly. You will still put numbers down as if the game never changed. This will be your Unit ranking. Because I don't know if/when numbers will be made available again, there's always the potential they pop up again. If that happens, I want all of us to still make predictions as we have in the past.

RECAP
The 1.2.3. placements are how you will be ranking each platform for revenue. So if it's revealed PS5 was #1 in revenue and you had PS5 as 1., you get points for that.

The "traditional" predictions for unit sales will be separate to that. You can put whatever number you want there. You could have PS5 as 1. for revenue, but say you aren't sure about units and want to hedge your bets on Xbox being the actual unit lead. Example prediction below:

1. [PS5] 200K
2. [XBS] 300K
3. [NSW] 100K

This user has PS5 winning revenue, but Xbox for units. This is a valid prediction. How points are calculated are still the same 50 points assigned, but like this.

Each ranking still has the same value, If #1 correct = 18, If #2 correct = 10, If #3 correct = 7. If the revenue and unit results have the same placements, then nothing changes.

If revenue and unit placements/results are different, then points will be halved. Take the above example and we'll say the actual results are PS5 > XBS > NSW in both revenue and units.

The above predictor would get 9 points for predicting PS5 on top of revenue, but not the full 18 due to the unit placement. They would get 5 points for XBS for the same reason as PS5, then 7 points for NSW.

There are also bonus points for If All Three correct = 15. In this user's case, they'd only get 7.5 points as they got the correct revenue order, but not units.

In total they'd have 28.5 / 50 points.



ITT, predict for the NPD August 2023 retail period (July 30, 2023 - August 26, 2023) for U.S. hardware REVENUE and UNIT placements.

What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined by the National Retail Federation (find calendar links here).
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales followers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations. (Only used for Hardware Units)
Why are there still predictions when official NPD numbers are not released?:
Despite not receiving numbers from NPD directly since 2010, we have always found ways of obtaining them, whether through official company PR or leaks. These threads are also a place for the community to discuss the upcoming releases and current state of the US market as well as potential impacts in the future. In the end, it's for fun!

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EST on Wednesday, September 13. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: July 30, 2023 - August 26, 2023 (4 weeks, July was 4 weeks)
NPD Results Release: Thursday, September 14 @ 9 a.m. EST? (PR + thread posted Friday, September 15 around 9 a.m EST)

Format:

[REV]

1. [NSW] XXX
2. [PS5] XXX
3. [XBS] XXX

Note: Combined totals for multi-SKUs. e.g. PS5 physical and digital edition total go under PS5. Xbox Series X and Xbox Series S total goes under XBS.

Good/Bad Formatting
Code:
Good                Bad
[REV] 405M          [REV] 400.5 million
[REV] 405,000,000   [REV] 405.000.000
[REV] 405000000     [REV] - 405000000

Code:
Good              Bad
[XBS] 1200K       [XBS] 1.2 million
[XBS] 1,200,000   [XBS] 1.200.000
[XBS] 1200000     [XBS] - 1200000

Potential hardware impacting events in August:
PS5 $50 price cut August 6 - 19, 14 days [2 weeks] / PS5 $449, MW2 $489, FF16 $509, GOW $509
Madden 24 (PS5, XBS) - August 15, 12 days [2 weeks]

Video Game Hardware Prices
Switch: $199/$299/$349/$359 (Lite/Regular/OLED/Zelda)
Xbox Series: $299/$499 (S/X) | $559 (X Forza Bundle/X Diablo 4 Bundle)
PS5: $399/$499 | $459/$559 (Digital/Regular) | (Digital GOW/Regular FF16/Regular MW2) | PS5 $449, MW2 $489, FF16 $509, GOW $509

Older Hardware, ROG Ally, Logitech G Cloud, Arcade cabinets: ???

Recent History of August Hardware Revenue
image.png


August 2022 Units
NSW: ???
PS5: 341K
XBS: 251K

July 2023 Rankings
Units: 1) PS5 2) Switch 3) XBS
Dollars: 1) PS5 2) Switch 3) XBS

July 2022 NPD thread
August 2022 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 
[REV] 315M

1. [PS5] 330K
2. [XBS] 195K
3. [NSW] 220K
 
Last edited:
I was ready to throw all my starfield hot takes into this prediction, then realized is for August and starfield came out yesterday!,,,,, Boring!

[REV] 300M

1. [PS5] 310K
2. [NSW] 230K
3. [XBS] 190K
 
Damn, I did some furious editing and moved XBS back to 3rd for units.

Shoulda kept my last edit.
 
Install Base Prediction Average
REV: 325.33M (Standard deviation = 18M)

PS5: 357K (Standard deviation = 36K)
NSW: 235K (Standard deviation = 21K)
XBS: 196K (Standard deviation = 13K)

NPD Prediction Results - August 2023

Revenue

Result: $328M
PlaceUserRevenue Difference
1Maluigi2,000,000
2Limabean012,000,000
3Lelouch06122,000,000
4awng7823,000,000
5Xevross3,000,000
6m0512935,000,000
7Myriotes7,000,000
8GaiusBaltar257,000,000
9derby_4408,000,000
10The Hunter8,000,000
11BTB1238,000,000
12Astral_lion028,000,000
13Welfare13,000,000
14Malden16,000,000
15Fatih_65620,000,000
16Kenka22,000,000
17Astrogamer26,000,000
18NobsPlaystation28,000,000
19Mcbel28,000,000
20jroc7432,000,000
21Avitsky42,000,000

Congrats to @Maluigi @Limabean01 and @Lelouch0612 ! We were very close to the actual result. 5/21 (24%) and 6/21 (29%) were within 1% and 2% of the actual result. 14/21 (67%) were within 5% and 20/21 (95%) were within 10%.

Points
Code:
August 2023                      Overall 2023    (7/8)   
1.  Lelouch0612     84.70        BTB123            681.51
2.  Limabean01      84.70        Xevross           678.18
3.  Maluigi         84.70        GaiusBaltar25     671.30
4.  m051293         80.74        awng782           667.31
5.  BTB123          77.28        Fatih_656         642.04
6.  The Hunter      77.28        jroc74            634.82
7.  awng782         76.54        Astral_lion02     631.62
8.  Xevross         76.54        Malden            627.93
9.  Welfare         74.52        Welfare           623.24
10. Fatih_656       73.45        NobsPlaystation   611.78
11. Mcbel           72.23        Astrogamer        608.41
12. GaiusBaltar25   70.93        The Hunter        585.66
13. Myriotes        70.93        m051293           555.24
14. Astral_lion02   68.78        Kenka             546.65
15. derby_440       68.78        Myriotes          544.08
16. Malden          65.56        The_Liquid_Laser  424.49
17. Kenka           64.65        Ystad             347.93
18. Astrogamer      64.04        SSN               339.61
19. NobsPlaystation 63.73        Limabean01        274.14
20. jroc74          63.12        Avitsky           267.23
21. Avitsky         61.60        derby_440         259.59
22.                              Maluigi           216.69
23.                              POE               210.57
24.                              Lelouch0612       174.89
25.                              Flakster99        158.74
26.                              Anthony_The_Ghost 109.98
27.                              Bodokoh           108.26
28                               Quinton           106.26
29.                              Cobalt            103.35
30.                              Vena               98.22
31.                              Banjokazooie1992   97.49
32.                              Pavolink           97.36
33.                              BoktaiFan          96.26
34.                              Whats a Gyme       96.26
35.                              LOCK               94.38
36.                              gtj1982            73.47
37.                              Mcbel              72.23
38.                              menx64             21.00

Congratulations to @Lelouch0612 @Limabean01 and @Maluigi !
 
I haven't won a single month and outside the top 10 for half of them and yet I'm first for the year. Damn I'm lucky.

Why does the Overall 2023 ranking not include this month's points?
 
Install Base Prediction Average
REV: 325.33M (Standard deviation = 18M)

PS5: 357K (Standard deviation = 36K)
NSW: 235K (Standard deviation = 21K)
XBS: 196K (Standard deviation = 13K)

NPD Prediction Results - August 2023

Revenue

Result: $328M
PlaceUserRevenue Difference
1Maluigi2,000,000
2Limabean012,000,000
3Lelouch06122,000,000
4awng7823,000,000
5Xevross3,000,000
6m0512935,000,000
7Myriotes7,000,000
8GaiusBaltar257,000,000
9derby_4408,000,000
10The Hunter8,000,000
11BTB1238,000,000
12Astral_lion028,000,000
13Welfare13,000,000
14Malden16,000,000
15Fatih_65620,000,000
16Kenka22,000,000
17Astrogamer26,000,000
18NobsPlaystation28,000,000
19Mcbel28,000,000
20jroc7432,000,000
21Avitsky42,000,000

Congrats to @Maluigi @Limabean01 and @Lelouch0612 ! We were very close to the actual result. 5/21 (24%) and 6/21 (29%) were within 1% and 2% of the actual result. 14/21 (67%) were within 5% and 20/21 (95%) were within 10%.

Points
Code:
August 2023                      Overall 2023    (7/8)  
1.  Lelouch0612     84.70        BTB123            681.51
2.  Limabean01      84.70        Xevross           678.18
3.  Maluigi         84.70        GaiusBaltar25     671.30
4.  m051293         80.74        awng782           667.31
5.  BTB123          77.28        Fatih_656         642.04
6.  The Hunter      77.28        jroc74            634.82
7.  awng782         76.54        Astral_lion02     631.62
8.  Xevross         76.54        Malden            627.93
9.  Welfare         74.52        Welfare           623.24
10. Fatih_656       73.45        NobsPlaystation   611.78
11. Mcbel           72.23        Astrogamer        608.41
12. GaiusBaltar25   70.93        The Hunter        585.66
13. Myriotes        70.93        m051293           555.24
14. Astral_lion02   68.78        Kenka             546.65
15. derby_440       68.78        Myriotes          544.08
16. Malden          65.56        The_Liquid_Laser  424.49
17. Kenka           64.65        Ystad             347.93
18. Astrogamer      64.04        SSN               339.61
19. NobsPlaystation 63.73        Limabean01        274.14
20. jroc74          63.12        Avitsky           267.23
21. Avitsky         61.60        derby_440         259.59
22.                              Maluigi           216.69
23.                              POE               210.57
24.                              Lelouch0612       174.89
25.                              Flakster99        158.74
26.                              Anthony_The_Ghost 109.98
27.                              Bodokoh           108.26
28                               Quinton           106.26
29.                              Cobalt            103.35
30.                              Vena               98.22
31.                              Banjokazooie1992   97.49
32.                              Pavolink           97.36
33.                              BoktaiFan          96.26
34.                              Whats a Gyme       96.26
35.                              LOCK               94.38
36.                              gtj1982            73.47
37.                              Mcbel              72.23
38.                              menx64             21.00

Congratulations to @Lelouch0612 @Limabean01 and @Maluigi !
I was never this close. 😱
 
I haven't won a single month and outside the top 10 for half of them and yet I'm first for the year. Damn I'm lucky.

Why does the Overall 2023 ranking not include this month's points?
You have done very well this year besides this month and June, you've scored 90 points or more each month. And June was 89 points.

After 6 months, the lowest point month isn't counted to the total ranking. After 9 months, the two lowest scores aren't counted.
 
You have done very well this year besides this month and June, you've scored 90 points or more each month. And June was 89 points.

After 6 months, the lowest point month isn't counted to the total ranking. After 9 months, the two lowest scores aren't counted.
Why is that?
 
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