• A small post regarding transcribing source, especially twitter. Please make sure to read the thread here.

  • 🥳🎂 Install Base celebrates its 2nd anniversary ! 🎂🥳

    Thanks everyone, and the best is yet to come ! Check out the details here!

  • 📰A Sales Story | E12 | Cities: Skylines📰

    Check out the 12th edition of A Sales Story | E12 | Cities: Skylines at the page here!

Assassin's Creed Mirage Sales Prediction Thread

How many copies lifetime for Mirage?

  • Total voters
    23
  • Poll closed .
Josh5890

Josh5890

Member
Former lurker
Pronouns
He/him
images

Next week, Ubisoft will release the next game in the very successful Assassin's Creed franchise. While there has been DLC updates to Valhalla and smaller updates to older titles, this is the longest stretch that the franchise has gone without a new title since its inception in 2007. This game is meant to be a return to the formula that the older games were known for. So the question is how well can this sell? A look at the more recent titles, 10m is the baseline for most titles.
Positives-
  • Game is launching at a lower price point of $50 USD
  • It is cross-gen with PS4/Xbox One
  • As mentioned, fans have waited three years for a new entry
  • Previews have been favorable.
Negatives-
  • October is extremely loaded for new releases
  • While no other game has been dated, there are several Assassin's Creed titles in development by Ubisoft. Depending on the next release, the legs for Mirage could be cut short.
  • The "return to formula" could be a turn off for fans of the newer entries.
 
That's actually a pretty great question.

The game looks great but has a more self-contained scope than previous AC games which might detract a big chunk of the audience. I don't expect the marketing to be as bombastic either.

Safe estimate is 3m this quarter I would say.
 
It's very hard to tell how this will sell without reviews talking about how ambitious the game is. Ubisoft says it's 20-30 hours long, but if this is just full of repetitive art assets and repetitive mission design because it's a budget release, I don't expect it to sell very well relative to the IP.
 
It's a hard time to release games, the extreme amount of high-quality releases in the last 4 months has destroyed people's game time. Rarely have I seen people so swamped with games.

I know plenty of people who play constantly but are nowhere near when it comes to finishing all the games they want to play. Me included. People are still playing Starfield, Lies of P, and Baldur's Gate and their backlog is full.

A lot of people are gonna hold Mirage off til the holiday.

Valhalla was a weird one, it was highly successful but soured people on Creed with it's excessive bloat, and while this is a return to the classic formula, I find it hard to read the room when it comes to Assassins's Creed hype levels right now.
 
ILikeFeet said:
definitely under 6M. the series got an explosion of sales by changing to an open world rpg. going back will hurt the game a bit. probably in the 4M sales at most
Click to expand...

There's DOZENS OF US who are happy about the slimmer more "stealth focused" experience.
We're all going to show up like Keaton fans did for The Flash. You best believe it! 🤣

I think lifetime sales depend on if AC RED truly hits the the fall/holiday 2024 internal release date that's been said by Tom Henderson.
Having a new fully fledged giant AC game in pretty much the most requested setting for an AC game of all time(Feudal Japan) might just come and saw off those legs from under Mirage.



Gimmick said:
It's a hard time to release games, the extreme amount of high-quality releases in the last 4 months has destroyed people's game time. Rarely have I seen people so swamped with games.

Valhalla was a weird one, it was highly successful but soured people on Creed with it's excessive bloat, and while this is a return to the classic formula, I find it hard to read the room when it comes to Assassins's Creed hype levels right now.
Click to expand...

Honestly, the shorter playtime might help a bit with the way the year is going.
If this was another Odyssey and especially Valhalla, people might just wait when they have less downtime to play another 80+ hours game.
Ironically this game might be a palate cleanser from all the giant games, which feels weird to say considering the trajectory of AC as a franchise in recent times.

But yeah, Mirage is a weird game, it's supposed to be a much shorter game in a series that has gotten more "bloated" from Origins--->Odyssey--->Valhalla and now this new standalone game makes a 180.

I agree with you, it's hard to get a real read on the general audience's interest for this game.
 
I am going high on this one, I think there's a good appetite for what AC offers and it hasn't been around in quite some time. With good marketing and a good game, they can make some big numbers.
 
I have no idea but I really, really want this to be a big success (as long as it's good if course) because I want this to be the direction of the series and not Odyssey/ Valhalla.

They really should spin those games off and drop the assassin's creed name from them.

It's a very busy time of year for games which won't help and lower scope games just don't tell to sell as well, for some reason loads of people love these bloated empty open worlds. I hope it can reach over 10mil given Unity managed that.
 
The other thing about this game is that all of the rest of AC Valhalla's DLC was very coolly received so I'm curious to see if this one managed to break through and change enough from Valhalla.
 
It's coming in a very busy season, but it's targeting almost every platform and brings a nice change towards the RPG AC formula. I'm guessing 4M this quarter and around 10+M LTD.
 
ILikeFeet said:
definitely under 6M. the series got an explosion of sales by changing to an open world rpg. going back will hurt the game a bit. probably in the 4M sales at most
Click to expand...
Mirage is still open-world, just not a big grind RPG.

With Ubisoft discounts sure to come into play, there is no way Mirage sells below 6M.
 
This is going to be a very Metacritic-dependent game due to its smaller scope and also its setting. If it's 75-85 Metacritic it will do well (6-7 million) because AC is big but it may perceived as a minor entry with a more niche setting that the mainstream gamer passes on. But if it's closer to 90 Metacritic that's when we're looking at 10 million plus.

The game looks great. Just not sure the setting and scope are as sales-conducive as Valhalla, Unity, Odyssey, Syndicate, and Origins.
 
A little update from Ubisoft on Mirage:



No hard numbers and the dreaded "players" makes it's appearance once again. But considering that the game is only on Ubisoft+ which I don't think has a very big subscriber base this seems pretty good considering that this game was almost assuredly much cheaper to make compared to Origins/Odyssey.
 
Seems like it's off to a good start.

And those are some hilariously useless statistics but at least the players are not savages who wouldn't stop to pet the street cat!
 
Vena said:
Seems like it's off to a good start.

And those are some hilariously useless statistics but at least the players are not savages who wouldn't stop to pet the street cat!
Click to expand...

Honestly, unless there's a tutorialized prompt for it early in the game I would not be surprised if a lot of players just never knew they could do it.
There's been a shocking bias from developers in allowing people to pet the dog vs pet the cat in games.

Justice for cats!
 
Evilnemesis8 said:
A little update from Ubisoft on Mirage:



No hard numbers and the dreaded "players" makes it's appearance once again. But considering that the game is only on Ubisoft+ which I don't think has a very big subscriber base this seems pretty good considering that this game was almost assuredly much cheaper to make compared to Origins/Odyssey.
Click to expand...

the sales similar to Odyssey and Origins put it in the 10M ballpark on the long run since both games exceeded that milestone. imho a great result given this is now an alternative branch to the bigger OW AC games that is much cheaper to make.
 
www.gamesindustry.biz

Ubisoft's H1 sees a 14% revenue bump

Ubisoft released its first-half earnings report today, posting revenue growth, which the firm attributed to its latest …
www.gamesindustry.biz www.gamesindustry.biz

The firm highlighted series record unit sales for the racer, while it said that Mirage has had a solid launch with user numbers in line with Assassin's Creed Origins and Assassin's Creed Odyssey.
Click to expand...

So for now, it seems like the game is on pace for ~10m in sales, if compared to Origins and Odyssey

Edit: and I see it was already mentioned above this post lol
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom