Ampere Analysis - Games console hardware as of June 2022 : PS5 21 mil., XS 13.8 mil.

[fiendcode]

Welfare can have a methodology on his own, but it is not close to a access NPD, GSD and Media Create data in any single way. Of course i will take their data with more credibility.

Welfare's giving sell-in estimates. Those don't even contradict Ampere so I'm not sure why you're doing this credibility ranking?

If we take your credibility argument to it's logical conclusion though, Nintendo has greater access to data and resources than Ampere, thus they must also be more credible. And since Ampere was credibly too low on Switch then, who's to say they can't be on Xbox? That's the thing about estimates...

 

[kirby007]

Hello PHR,
I understand wanting to validate your own business but an estimate is still an estimate. Don't become Patcher 2.0

 

[Salesman]

Welfare's giving sell-in estimates. Those don't even contradict Ampere so I'm not sure why you're doing this credibility ranking?

Because you are trying to discredit Ampere for no good reason

If we take your credibility argument to it's logical conclusion though, Nintendo has greater access to data and resources than Ampere, thus they must be more credible. And since Ampere was credibly too low on Switch then, who's to say they can't be on Xbox? That's the thing about estimates...

Of course console manufacturers knows more. Ampere wasn't credibly to low on NSW sales like you have said That's a stretch by you and a attempt to discredit them. They've missed Nintendo Switch numbers by barely 1% last ime. Arguing over 1% is fucked up. Anyone here should be satisfied if we get that much RELIABLE data by 3rd party analyst. Btw. Piere is a member here too

 

[fiendcode]

Because you are trying to discredit Ampere for no good reason

Literally where?

Of course console manufacturers knows more. Ampere wasn't credibly to low on NSW sales. That's a stretch by you and a attempt to discredit them. They've missed Nintendo Switch numbers by barely 1% last ime. Arguing over 1% is fucked up

Barely 1% best case. Remember that's the lower bound, it could be up to almost 4%. These aren't big percentages anyway though and I wasn't discrediting them, I was just bringing your own argument to it's logical conclusion. Credibility doesn't work one way.

Hello PHR, I understand wanting to validate your own business but an estimate is still an estimate. Don't become Patcher 2.0

PHR actually has an account here, lol. He's not Salesman.

 

[Welfare]

I'm not a mod but I think the discussion over validity over these estimates should stop.

Nintendo, Sony, Microsoft would be the most accurate source for sell through estimates of consoles. You should take their estimates as near fact.

You then have firms like Ampere which have access to a lot of the same data that the above do, but not everything. A massive number of countries can be tracked by the likes of NPD, GFK, and Media Create, but not every region has accurate tracking like that. Estimates based off direct access to a ton of countries can be accurate to a point, but further extrapolation can be messy.

Ampere should be in the ball park of where every console is. A ball park is also big. Allow for some wiggle room from third party firms.

 

[Salesman]

Literally where?

Posts above??

Barely 1% best case. Remember that's the lower bound, it could be up to almost 4%.

Even 4% is awesome. It shouldn't be questioned at all if they are tracking biggest markets and missed their estimates by a little. We have a NPD threads here every damn month and NPD covers around 95% of US market. Calling out Ampere then is a hypocrisy

 

[fiendcode]

Posts above??

Which ones.

Even 4% is awesome. It shouldn't be questioned at all if they are tracking biggest markets and missed their estimates by a little. We have a NPD threads here every damn month and NPD covers around 95% of US market. Calling out Ampere then is a hypocrisy

Let me clarify this, I'm not calling out Ampere. I said they were credible, their sources were credible, their numbers were sound and estimates aren't a perfect science.

My point with the logic exercise was to show taking a hardline stance on any of this is pretty fruitless. Because dismissing Welfare out of hand on the grounds you are, you'd also have to dismiss Ampere. These are just estimates after all, don't take any of them as gospel.

 

[Salesman]

I'm not calling out Ampere. I said they were credible, their sources were credible, their numbers were sound and estimates aren't a perfect science.

Neither is NPDs and no one is questioning NPDs data.

My point with the logic exercise was to show taking a hardline stance on any of this is pretty fruitless. Because dismissing Welfare out of hand on the grounds you are, you'd also have to dismiss Ampere. These are just estimates after all, don't take any of them as gospel

You are putting basically in the same basket Welfare estimates and Ampere's estimates. It shouldn't be equalled at all. In any single way. "Ampere's said these numbers are that, but Welfares numbers were few millions more before" Just damn no.

Which ones.

Literally posts above otherwise this conversation wouldn't be continued

 

[HFbob]

Edit

 

[kirby007]

makes perfect sense with my math tbh :
1. ps4 outsold the xone 2:1 ( thanks MS )
2. the series isn't as big of a flop as the xone
3. wafersupply in 2020 resulting in a ratio of about 3:2
4. 20 mil ps5 by june (20:18)x19= 21m by july 1st ( thanks Sony )
5. PS5 numbers times 0,66 = 13.8

fuck i'll toss in the next one already : PS5 has sold 31m while the Series X/S sells 20 million
and the timeframe will be about a month after Sony announces 30 mil

 

[fiendcode]

Neither is NPDs and no one is questioning NPDs data.

What? Stop goalposting.

You are putting basically in the same basket Welfare estimates and Ampere's estimates. It shouldn't be equalled at all. In any single way. "Ampere's said these numbers are that, but Welfares numbers were few millions more before" Just damn no.

They're both estimates, so what? Welfare uses publicly available data and is open with his methodology, I don't see any reason to discredit that. It's also sound.

Literally posts above otherwise this conversation wouldn't be continued

Literally post them. Prove your accusation.

 

[enpleinjour]

Welfare can have a methodology on his own, but it is not close to have a access to NPD, GSD and Media Create data in any single way. It is not even close. Of course i will take their data with more credibility or anyone else.

Anyone would. A firm having access to 85%+ of actual sell in data is going to be more accurate than us who has at best 50-60%.

Even 4% is awesome. It shouldn't be questioned at all if they are tracking biggest markets and missed their estimates by a little. We have a NPD threads here every damn month and NPD covers around 95% of US market. Calling out Ampere then is a hypocrisy

Don't you know that one time where VGchartz got it right, therefore since VGchartz is in a similar range to NPD, NPD is no longer a trustworthy source

 

[Salesman]

Literally post them. Prove your accusation.

From this and onwards. It literally questioning Ampere's reliability over 1% missed data and it starts from here and onwards

Ampere Analysis - Games console hardware as of June 2022 : PS5 21 mil., XS 13.8 mil.

https://www.ampereanalysis.com/insight/economic-conditions-prompt-sony-to-increase-the-price-of-ps5-across-a-range-of-markets Console gamers are used to a gradual decrease in hardware costs over the lifecycle of a console, but the unprecedented global economic environment has led Sony to...

www.installbaseforum.com

What? Stop goalposting.

It is not a goalposting. NPD are also eastimates and they don't cover 100% of US market and no one is questioning them about their estimates.

They're both estimates, so what? Welfare uses publicly available data and is open with his methodology, I don't see any reason to discredit that. It's also sound

Compared to VG Chartz yes, it shouldn't be discredit. You can put VGchartz and Welfare in the same basket. After all, they are following each other on Twitter. Compared to Ampere's, it should. It is not even close.

 

[TrunksWD]

Anyone would. A firm having access to 85%+ of actual sell in data is going to be more accurate than us who has at best 50-60%.



Don't you know that one time where VGchartz got it right, therefore since VGchartz is in a similar range to NPD, NPD is no longer a trustworthy source

I am going to jump in here as the one who now does the VGChartz estimates. Our estimates are just that and are based on publicly available data, historical data (Ie. how much sales have been up/down YoY in recent weeks/months and comparing how sales have been to a predecessor - PS5 vs PS4 and XS vs X1), and retail availability when it comes to the PS5 and Xbox Series X. As more data becomes available I make adjustments to make our estimates more accurate. I try to be as open as possible about the fact the figures are just estimates based on a limited amount of data.

 

[Lelouch0612]

Since the topic is brought up again, I will reiterate that Ampere has access to enough data and ressources to make reliable estimates of global sell-through.

Don't take the figure as reliable to the dot tho and that's why publishers usually refer to sell-through number as "more than X million", giving a lower range, problably within the error margin.

 

[fiendcode]

From this and onwards. It literally questioning Ampere's reliability over 1% missed data and it starts from here and onwards

Ampere Analysis - Games console hardware as of June 2022 : PS5 21 mil., XS 13.8 mil.

https://www.ampereanalysis.com/insight/economic-conditions-prompt-sony-to-increase-the-price-of-ps5-across-a-range-of-markets Console gamers are used to a gradual decrease in hardware costs over the lifecycle of a console, but the unprecedented global economic environment has led Sony to...

www.installbaseforum.com

What? That link doesn't even go to my post, lol.

It is not a goalposting. NPD are also eastimates and they don't cover 100% of US market and no one is questioning them about their estimates.

Okay, but what's this even have to do what me saying Ampere's legit? Like I'm having some difficulty connecting these dots, inserting NPD and their direct market coverage is bizarre?

Compared to VG Chartz yes, it shouldn't be discredit. You can put VGchartz and Welfare in the same basket. After all, they are following each other on Twitter. Compared to Ampere's, it should. It is not even close.

You're inserting VGC too. And your crusade against Welfare is getting weird here.

 

[Salesman]

What? That link doesn't even go to my post, lol.

Never said it was started from your post

Compared to VG Chartz yes, it shouldn't be discredit. You can put VGchartz and Welfare in the same basket. After all, they are following each other on Twitter. Compared to Ampere's, it should. It is not even close

Same as members here said Welfares XS numbers were few millions above and asked who is right then. :/

Okay, but what's this even have to do what me saying Ampere's legit? Like I'm having some difficulty connecting these dots, inserting NPD and their direct market coverage is bizarre?

It is not a bizarre. NPD has a margin of error for around 5%. No one is complain about it an NPD threads are opened every month. Ampere had margin of error of 1% NSW worldwide numbers in previous reports and it is questioned. That's bizzare

 

[fiendcode]

Never said it was started from your post

You said I was trying to discredit Ampere for no good reason. I asked you where. Pointing to someone else's post isn't helping your case here.

Same as members here said Welfares XS numbers were few millions above and asked who is right then. :/

What?

 

[Welfare]

.Compared to VG Chartz yes, it shouldn't be discredit. You can put VGchartz and Welfare in the same basket. After all, they are following each other on Twitter. Compared to Ampere's, it should. It is not even close.

Your not the first to mention this Twitter "connection" with Chartz but I don't get why it's brought up.

Mat from NPD follows me as well. Who we follow means nothing as there isn't a collaboration going on.

 

[Salesman]

What?

You said I was trying to discredit Ampere for no good reason. I asked you where. Pointing to someone else's post isn't helping your case here

??? This is discrediting. Questioning margin of error of 1% is damn dumb. And it wasn't couple of million sell through. It was very, very close.

Ampere undershot Switch sales a few times. They weren't far off really but it was starting to feel like a pattern of continually coming in a couple million under Nintendo's sell-through (NOT sell-in) figures. Hopefully they've adjusted their models since.

Your not the first to mention this Twitter "connection" with Chartz but I don't get why it's brought up.

Because D'Angelo tweeted you before how he wasn't far off vs. your estimates. :/ Who is right then?? That is funny to me. Like he thinks that you are reliable as someone here said that too. Think that Mat Piscatella would say the same to you on Twitter, that his NPD data are close to your estimates??

 

[kirby007]

Are we actually making the point that someone not having the full dataset, can't make a reasonable estimate?
if so im out

 

[fiendcode]

??? This is discrediting. Questioning margin of error of 1% is damn dumb. And it wasn't couple of million sell through

That's not discrediting, that's just the reality of it. And it potentially is a couple million but yes, it also could've been less. I was just going off remembering them coming in low.

 

[MegaXZero]

??? This is discrediting. Questioning margin of error of 1% is damn dumb. And it wasn't couple of million sell through. It was very, very close.

This is no where close to wrongly discrediting them. It’s pointing out they continuously undershot the switch by a little, which they did.

 

[Salesman]

That's not discrediting, that's just the reality of it. And it potentially is a couple million but yes, it also could've been less. I was just going off remembering them coming in low.

It wasn't couple of millions sell through in previous estimates. Nintendo was very careful with wording. They've said over 100 mil. sold through, but 103 millions shipped. If it was 101 million sold through or over, they would say that in a report, but they didn't. Which means over 2 million was in transit/warehouses across the globe

It’s pointing out they continuously undershot the switch by a little,

By a little, yes, and calling it out them for that is dumb. :/ Anyway, we should be happy for 3rd party analyst who are giving us a global data with low margin of error.

 

[MegaXZero]

By a little, yes, and calling it out them for that is dumb. :/

You are allowed to use critical thinking and compare what an analyst says and what the publisher is saying. It isn’t dumb to point that out.

 

[fiendcode]

It wasn't couple of millions sell through in previous estimates. Nintendo was very careful with wording. They've said over 100 mil. sold through, but 103 millions shipped. If it was 101 million sold through or over, they would say that in a report, but they didn't. Which means over 2 million was in transit/warehouses across the globe



By a little, yes, and calling it out them for that is dumb. :/ Anyway, we should be happy for 3rd party analyst who are giving us a global data with low margin of error.

100m is just the lower bound, Nintendo didn't give a higher one. All you can really assume is between 100m and 103.54m technically. It's probably closer to 100m imo but it could also certainly be over 101m.

This also wasn't calling out. The larger point you keep missing is estimates aren't perfect, so don't get hung up on which ones are "right". They'll never be 100%, be it Ampere, NPD, Welfare or even Nintendo honestly.

 

[Salesman]

100m is just the lower bound, Nintendo didn't give a higher one. All you can really assume is between 100m and 103.54m technically. It's probably closer to 100m imo but it could also certainly be over 101m.

This also wasn't calling out. The larger point you keep missing is estimates aren't perfect, so don't get hung up on which ones are "right". They'll never be 100%, be it Ampere, NPD, Welfare or even Nintendo honestly.

If Nintendo was specific about shipped numbers, and also specific about aold through numbers. They would say that is closer to 101 mil or over 101 mil sold through if it was that. It is very simple. Also, just like Sony gave us specific sold through numbers for PS4.

 

[Welfare]

Because D'Angelo tweeted you before how he wasn't far off vs. your estimates. :/ Who is right then?? That is funny to me. Like he thinks that you are reliable as someone here said that too. Think that Mat Piscatella would say the same to you on Twitter, that his NPD data are close to your estimates??

I'm a little confused here so forgive me.

Trunks and I independently estimate console sales, he does sell through, I do Xbox shipments. Again, independent of each other, the sell through estimate he comes up with could potentially be in line with my shipment estimate.

He gave his methodology above which has a different base to work off than I do.

I wouldn't say either of us would claim to ever be "right" which might be the problem? If Xbox came out with numbers far lower than mine I wouldn't mind since 1. Holy shit they gave numbers and 2. There's no way I'm 100% right. I could be 1M off or exact. I won't know but I try to make sure how I come to these estimates are based in logic and actual data available to me. That doesn't mean I will be exactly accurate but if I'm open about how I get these estimates and others can agree with the logic, that's different than being reliable. More like, it's sound logic? To me what I do is a continuation of what we did on GAF which was argue and try to figure out the most logical conclusion to what Xbox One was selling with the info we had. If I provide enough evidence and reasoning for why my estimates are what they are, I guess I'm convincing people that my estimates are sound?

Mat definitely doesn't follow me for my Xbox estimates and I would be shocked if he ever commented on them. I brought him up because he's the NPD guy yet I would never claim, or see anyone claim, my estimates should be "right" because Mat follows me. In fact the only thing I've seen around Twitter follows is that Trunks and I follow each other so that means I'm "wrong".

 

[fiendcode]

If Nintendo was specific about shipped numbers, and also specific about aold through numbers. They would say that is closer to 101 mil or over 101 mil sold through if it was that. It is very simple. Also, just like Sony gave us specific sold through numbers for PS4.

Nintendo wasn't specific though, they gave their lower bound. They didn't name a specific number, just a lowest baseline that sales are almost certainly above. Again, estimates aren't exact and there are regulations on data given to investors. Even if Nintendo's estimates pointed to say 101.5m but their margin of error is even 1.5% that means they're telling investors just 100m+.

Sony's the same. And no, this isn't equivalent to sold-in, which is a specific number Nintendo or Sony have full access to (because they shipped them).

 

[Salesman]

Nintendo wasn't specific though, they gave their lower bound. They didn't name a specific number, just a lowest baseline that sales are almost certainly above

And if it was 101 mil. Sold through they would mentioned it in their reports. It is very basic in a fiscal reports. Even just to please investors.

 

[fiendcode]

And if it was 101 mil. Sold through they would mentioned it in their reports.

No, not if they had a 1% margin of error. 100m is the bottom of their margin.

 

[Salesman]

No, not if they had a 1% margin of error. 100m is the bottom of their margin.

I still stand by my comment. It is very basic in a fiscal reports. Even just to please investors. If it was above 102 million sold through, they would mentioned it. Higher is better for everyone

 

[Bodokoh]

And if it was 101 mil. Sold through they would mentioned it in their reports. It is very basic in a fiscal reports. Even just to please investors.

Stop using your imagination for sales report from Nintendo.

 

[Salesman]

Stop using your imagination for sales report from Nintendo.

It is pretty standard to report highest possible numbers publicly in fiscal reports, but OK.

 

[Lelouch0612]

Since the topic is brought up again, I will reiterate that Ampere has access to enough data and ressources to make reliable estimates of global sell-through.

Don't take the figure as reliable to the dot tho and that's why publishers usually refer to sell-through number as "more than X million", giving a lower range, problably within the error margin.

Since this attempt of soft-moderation didn't have any impact, it could only lead to a more stricter enforcement.

Hope it will put the thread on the right tracks.

 

[Welfare]

Just an update thanks to data from this thread here's what we can calculate.

Xbox Series CESA 2020 regions: 2,270,000
Ampere's 2020 Estimate: 2.8M

CESA regions = ~81% of Ampere

Xbox Series CESA 2021 regions: 5,620,000
Ampere's 2021 Estimate: 7.7M (LTD 10.5M)

CESA regions = ~73% of Ampere

China was a big launch in June 2021. Would also suggest regions not covered in CESA grew much more than traditional markets. South America would most likely be the biggest improvement.

Another comp

US 2020 compared to Ampere: 53%
US 2021 compared to Ampere: 48%
US 2022 (June) compared to Ampere: ~53%

 

[Jaum]

China was a big launch in June 2021. Would also suggest regions not covered in CESA grew much more than traditional markets. South America would most likely be the biggest improvement.

Just taking the chance to give some context on Brazil, from what I noticed, the stock patterns here follows US closely. In 2021 first half, Xbox was small and PS5 strong and this time it's the opposite, like US. PS5 is also getting more stock in the second half as it's getting in US.

From the Sony slides, considering here was below Spain for PS5 and Xbox it's trending closely with it, I'd say it's in the ~200k-250k range for it until that date. Info on other SA markets I won't have but considering here it's the biggest market for the region, putting another ~200k-250k for the other countries combined maybe it's a good estimate.