Ampere Analysis - Games console hardware as of June 2022 : PS5 21 mil., XS 13.8 mil.

[Salesman]

Economic conditions prompt Sony to increase the price of PS5 across a range of markets

Sony has increased the recommended retail price of the PS5 in 45 markets globally

www.ampereanalysis.com

Console gamers are used to a gradual decrease in hardware costs over the lifecycle of a console, but the unprecedented global economic environment has led Sony to increase the recommended retail price of both models of the PS5 across a wide number of sales territories globally with immediate effect. The US price will remain unchanged.

According to Ampere Analysis data, by the end of June 2022, Sony had sold through 21 million PS5s worldwide compared to Microsoft’s Xbox Series consoles at 13.8 million.

Rest of the article is a about PS5 price increase, as this threas exists

Sony: PS5 price to increase in select markets due to global economic environment, including high inflation rates (UP: SEA price increases)

https://blog.playstation.com/2022/08/25/ps5-price-to-increase-in-select-markets-due-to-global-economic-environment-including-high-inflation-rates/ The new RRPs below are effective immediately unless otherwise noted.* Europe PS5 with Ultra HD Blu-ray disc drive – €549.99 PS5 Digital Edition –...

www.installbaseforum.com

His twitter comments about it

 

[The Hunter]

Well, given the shortage problems that PS5 has had, that did not allow Sony to produce the number of consoles they had planned, and given the fact that Microsoft sells a console for 299 that has practically always been available since launch, these are unexpected results for me
I didn't expect that despite this factors, PS5 to have this much of advantage at this time.
I mean, it's a ratio of Little over 1.5 : 1.
I would say it's a quite considerable gap.
Without PS5's stock issues we would definitely have been 2:1 or close to 2:1, based on the results of Ampere and the Sony's previous forecasts.
It seems that in the last months the gap has widened, if I'm not mistaken before the difference was 5 million, now it's 7. The increase in PS5 stock over the last few months is starting to pay off.

 

[enpleinjour]

What was the closest comparison to last gen?
PS4 at 20M and XB1 at 11-12M?

Also people should really check second hand markets to see what the market (albeit fragmented) is selling PS5. Seeing sales of $620.

Ampere expects no change in PS5's 18M forecast.

 

[Bernd Lauert]

For Xbox, this is roughly 3m lower than what other analysts (like Zhuge and Welfare) are saying. Who is right?

 

[The Hunter]

For Xbox, this is roughly 3m lower than what other analysts (like Zhuge and Welfare) are saying. Who is right?

It would be easier if Xbox gave sales data, unfortunately it does not. In any case, Ampere is a respectable company that has always provided realistic sales data.

 

[enpleinjour]

For Xbox, this is roughly 3m lower than what other analysts (like Zhuge and Welfare) are saying. Who is right?

Ampere has access to NPD and EU data, and their figures are sell in not shipped.

 

[reksveks]

I think most of the gaming revenue forecasts are still on the high side, Ampere forecasted a -1.2 decline in 2022.

https://www.ampereanalysis.com/press/release/dl/global-games-market-forecast-to-decline-in-2022#:~:text=London%2C%205thJuly%202022%3AThe%20latest%20outlook%20from%20Ampere%20Analysis,market%20performance%20in%202021%20%28%2B5%25%2C%20%24191bn%29%2C%20the%20sector

US SW via NPD is down 9% (would need to close to 10% growth get back to -1.2%)
US HW via NPD is down 10% (would need to 6.4% growth to get back to 1.2%)

I think 10% growth in SW is going to be a stretch personally. Obviously this is just one market. I could try and do something similar to EU/UK but with unit numbers.

Accessories HW UK YTD - down 37% units
Console HW UK YTD - down 37% units
SW UK YTD - down 6% units

Accessories HW EU* YTD - down 6% units
Console HW EU* YTD - down 33% units
SW EU* YTD - down 6% units

* normal market exclusions apply and also excluding jan and april cause i dont have 2021 data

 

[SoonyXboneUhh]

What was the closest comparison to last gen?
PS4 at 20M and XB1 at 11-12M?

Xbox One was approaching 10m (shipped) in November 2014.
PS4 officially sold through 20.2m as of 1st March 2015.

Add 7 months of sales for Xbox One and 4 months for PS5
PS4 at 22-23M and Xbox One 11-12M

 

[The Hunter]

What was the closest comparison to last gen?
PS4 at 20M and XB1 at 11-12M?

Also people should really check second hand markets to see what the market (albeit fragmented) is selling PS5. Seeing sales of $620.

Ampere expects no change in PS5's 18M forecast.

I think PS4 was at around 23-24 m, and Xbox One at 11- 12 m console sold to consumers in June 2015.
And it should be considered that PS4 certainly did not have the stock problems of PS5 and also was launched at 100 euros less than Xbox one.
All the opposite of this generation where stock problems persist and Xbox launched two variants, SX launched at the same price as PS5, and SS launched at 299 euros.

 

[Salesman]

For Xbox, this is roughly 3m lower than what other analysts (like Zhuge and Welfare) are saying. Who is right?

Maybe is now 15-16 mil. But 13.8 is as of June 2022

As Zhuge said this on this forum a while ago :

Ampere has access to NPD, GSD and Media Create last I checked, so they're able to create estimates with integrity.

 

[The Hunter]

Maybe is now 15-16 mil. But 13.8 is as of June 2022

As Zhuge said this on this forum a while ago :

From what I remember Ampere calculates data in terms of consoles sold to consumers and not distributed.

If Xbox sold 13.8 million consoles as of June 2022, I think it should be close to 15 million consoles sold as of August 2022. Probably with consoles shipped it is close to 16.

PS5, on the other hand, now should be around 23 consoles sold to consumers, and close to 24 million consoles shipped as today.

 

[allan-bh]

For Xbox, this is roughly 3m lower than what other analysts (like Zhuge and Welfare) are saying. Who is right?

Both are fair estimates of shipments and sell through.

The gap between ship and sold for Xbox Series is bigger because Series S isn't in short supply.

 

[enpleinjour]

Both are fair estimates of shipments and sell through.

The gap between ship and sold for Xbox Series is bigger because Series S isn't in short supply.

Ampere has actual access to NPD, GFK and Media Create products. Do the other two have such access?

 

[Salesman]

Ampere has actual access to NPD, GFK and Media Create products. Do the other two have such access?

I dunno about Zhuge, but Welfare surely doesn't

 

[fiendcode]

I dunno about Zhuge, but Welfare surely doesn't

I'd bet Zhuge does, even though Niko Partners specializes in Asia, ME and Africa. Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo are clients of theirs (as are a ton of other gaming co.s).

 

[Salesman]

I'd bet Zhuge does, even though Niko Partners specializes in Asia

That's why i've said i dunno about Zhuge

 

[EnergyDrink]

Is Ampere Analysis trustworthy or more like vgchartz?

Ampere has actual access to NPD, GFK and Media Create products. Do the other two have such access?

Many people have access to some NPD/GFK data but made wrong predictions.

 

[enpleinjour]

Is Ampere Analysis trustworthy or more like vgchartz?


Many people have access to some NPD/GFK data but made wrong predictions.

Like who?
NPD, GFK, MC offer such a large amount of the total marketshare that it's hard to see their predictions be wildly off.

 

[Salesman]

Is Ampere Analysis trustworthy or more like vgchartz?

This is the 4th thread about Ampere's analysis here. Otherwise threads wouldn't allowed here

 

[The Hunter]

Is Ampere Analysis trustworthy or more like vgchartz?

Nope, Ampere Analysis is absolutely trustworthy.

 

[MegaXZero]

Ampere is not vgchartz, but that doesn't mean they are the end all be all. They are estimating worldwide sales and are bound to not be spot on. There will be some amount of error.

 

[enpleinjour]

From my estimates on PS4/XB1 at similar levels:

• PS4 - 22.3M , end of Mar 2015
• XB1
  • NPD (end of Dec 2014) = 6.18M
  • GFK UK (end of Dec 2014) = 1.47M
  • EU (end of Dec 2014) = 1.35M
  • Canada (end of Dec 2014) = 0.45M
    • EU/Canada from, https://www.resetera.com/threads/hardware-and-software-sales-2019-in-many-countries.277262/
  • Total = 9.45M
  • This is 90%+ of the addressable market for XB so we can say 9.5-10M sold
  • Shipped is estimated at 10.5-11M
• PS4 = 19.9M shipped (end of Dec 2014)
• XB1 ~ 10.5-11M shipped (end of Dec 2014)
• Assuming similar hardware ratios:
  • PS4 = 22.3M shipped (end of Mar 2015)
  • XB1 = 11.8M-12.3M shipped (end of Mar 2015)

 

[Welfare]

Ampere is reliable in that it has access to reports from trackers like NPD, GFK, and the like.

Those trackers do not cover every market like South America for example. Even a nation like India relies on retailers reporting to journalists, not an actual nation wide sales tracker.

I've always been open about how I estimate Xbox sales. Taking the hardware revenue each quarter and working out a split based on public reports, numbers, and eye balling those if needed.

I've actually slightly lowered my estimate down to 16.2M shipped as of last quarter while looking through everything again.

I will say though that due to Phil Spencer confirming Xbox Series was the fastest selling Xbox after the holiday 2021 season there's very little if any doubt to me that firmly puts XBS above 11.0M as a base, 12.0 being more likely. I've gone over it in other threads before but very quickly, the Xbox One US LTD was 6.2M at the end of 2014. Even assuming an even worse US to worldwide ratio than launch (despite launching in dozens of new regions) the absolute bare minimum sell through would be 10M. Factor in unsold units on shelves, warehouses, and still in transit, you can rack up an additional million units or more. PS4 had 1.7M unsold units at the end of 2014, Xbox having ~1M or more makes sense. Of course, a more typical skew of US:WW would be for Xbox is somewhere in the 55-60%, not +60%. This would put Xbox One sell through somewhere between 10.3M and 11.2M.

I err to the higher end of XB1 sell through at the end of 2014 due to the launch in dozens of new regions, and personally think the bare minimum for both XB1 shipments and therefore XBS shipments at the end of 2021 should be 12.0M.

 

[Bodokoh]

Nope, Ampere Analysis is absolutely trustworthy.

But not totally accurate like their previous estimated.

Nintendo "Above 100 million units sold-through numbers for Nintendo Switch"

Ampere "Below 100 million units for Nintendo Switch"

Lol.

 

[The Hunter]

But not totally accurate like their previous estimated.

Nintendo "Above 100 million units sold-through numbers for Nintendo Switch"

Ampere "Below 100 million units for Nintendo Switch"

Lol.

When they did say that?

 

[Salesman]

But not totally accurate like their previous estimated.

Nintendo "Above 100 million units sold-through numbers for Nintendo Switch"

Ampere "Below 100 million units for Nintendo Switch"

Lol.

When they did say that?

Ampere said basically 100 mil Switches sold through as of Dec. 2021, but rest of 3 mil. in transit, warehouses.

Ampere Analysis - Games console hardware 2021 : PS5 - 17 mil, XSX - 10.5 mil, NSW - 99.9 mil

Console sell-through volume increased 2% year-on-year to 48 million units Sales volume of games consoles to consumers increased in 2021 driven by newly released devices from all three manufacturers, but volume growth was significantly hampered by weak availability of Sony PlayStation 5...

www.installbaseforum.com

Anyway, doesn't Nintendo announce shipped numbers im their fiscal reports, just like Sony is doing?? There is no need to discredit Ampere if someone don't like their numbers.

 

[The Hunter]

Ampere said basically 100 mil Switches sold through as of Dec. 2021, but rest of 3 mil. in transit, warehouses.

Ampere Analysis - Games console hardware 2021 : PS5 - 17 mil, XSX - 10.5 mil, NSW - 99.9 mil

Console sell-through volume increased 2% year-on-year to 48 million units Sales volume of games consoles to consumers increased in 2021 driven by newly released devices from all three manufacturers, but volume growth was significantly hampered by weak availability of Sony PlayStation 5...

www.installbaseforum.com

Anyway, doesn't Nintendo announce shipped numbers im their fiscal reports, just like Sony is doing?? There is no need to discredit Ampere if someone don't like their numbers.

Yep, Nintendo announce shipped numbers in their fiscal report.

 

[Bodokoh]

Yep, Nintendo announce shipped numbers in their fiscal report.

Ampere said basically 100 mil Switches sold through as of Dec. 2021, but rest of 3 mil. in transit, warehouses.

Ampere Analysis - Games console hardware 2021 : PS5 - 17 mil, XSX - 10.5 mil, NSW - 99.9 mil

Console sell-through volume increased 2% year-on-year to 48 million units Sales volume of games consoles to consumers increased in 2021 driven by newly released devices from all three manufacturers, but volume growth was significantly hampered by weak availability of Sony PlayStation 5...

www.installbaseforum.com

Anyway, doesn't Nintendo announce shipped numbers im their fiscal reports, just like Sony is doing?? There is no need to discredit Ampere if someone don't like their numbers.

As of December 31, 2021 from Nintendo's earnings report.

Shipped-103.54M.
Sold-through->100M.

 

[fiendcode]

Ampere undershot Switch sales a few times. They weren't far off really but it was starting to feel like a pattern of continually coming in a couple million under Nintendo's sell-through (NOT sell-in) figures. Hopefully they've adjusted their models since.

 

[enpleinjour]

As of December 31, 2021 from Nintendo's earnings report.

Shipped-103.54M.
Sold-through->100M.

This is hardly the slight you think it is.
Ironically, this shows Ampere's accuracy, a <1% error margin is amazing lol

 

[Astral_lion02]

Ampere undershot Switch sales a few times. They weren't far off really but it was starting to feel like a pattern of continually coming in a couple million under Nintendo's sell-through (NOT sell-in) figures. Hopefully they've adjusted their models since.

Nintendo sell-through is not more reliable than Ampere.

Nintendo use GFK/NPD/Media Create but for untracked country that's only an internal estimate with some errors margins.

Same as Ampere.

 

[enpleinjour]

Ampere is reliable in that it has access to reports from trackers like NPD, GFK, and the like.

Those trackers do not cover every market like South America for example. Even a nation like India relies on retailers reporting to journalists, not an actual nation wide sales tracker.

I've always been open about how I estimate Xbox sales. Taking the hardware revenue each quarter and working out a split based on public reports, numbers, and eye balling those if needed.

I've actually slightly lowered my estimate down to 16.2M shipped as of last quarter while looking through everything again.

I will say though that due to Phil Spencer confirming Xbox Series was the fastest selling Xbox after the holiday 2021 season there's very little if any doubt to me that firmly puts XBS above 11.0M as a base, 12.0 being more likely. I've gone over it in other threads before but very quickly, the Xbox One US LTD was 6.2M at the end of 2014. Even assuming an even worse US to worldwide ratio than launch (despite launching in dozens of new regions) the absolute bare minimum sell through would be 10M. Factor in unsold units on shelves, warehouses, and still in transit, you can rack up an additional million units or more. PS4 had 1.7M unsold units at the end of 2014, Xbox having ~1M or more makes sense. Of course, a more typical skew of US:WW would be for Xbox is somewhere in the 55-60%, not +60%. This would put Xbox One sell through somewhere between 10.3M and 11.2M.

I err to the higher end of XB1 sell through at the end of 2014 due to the launch in dozens of new regions, and personally think the bare minimum for both XB1 shipments and therefore XBS shipments at the end of 2021 should be 12.0M.

Ampere has access to US, UK, EU and JP numbers. That represents 85%+ of Xbox's marketshare. Their numbers are going to quite accurate regardless since they cover so much of the market.

I also think the assumption of ratios being relatively constant is not accurate. There's a lot of change in the first year or so compared to later on.

For instance when MS announced 10M XB1 "shortly" shipped, XB1's sell through in the US was around 5-6M, meaning around 6-7M shipped (which might be underselling it as shipped inventory is bigger during the holidays). That would represent 60-70% of the total.

There's not too much difference between estimates though, around 1M or so, and with RotW being unknown changing it from 10% of sales to 15% of sales would produce that 1M margin error.

 

[Salesman]

Ampere undershot Switch sales a few times. They weren't far off really but it was starting to feel like a pattern of continually coming in a couple million under Nintendo's sell-through (NOT sell-in) figures. Hopefully they've adjusted their models since.

Undershot NSW sales by barely 1%. :/. Also, this time they didn't estimate NSW sales

 

[Bodokoh]

This is hardly the slight you think it is.
Ironically, this shows Ampere's accuracy, a <1% error margin is amazing lol

Normal people without NPD and other trackers data - Nintendo Switch sell-through numbers are above 100 million units thanks to Nintendo data.
VGchartz - Estimated above 100 million units at the end of December 2021.
Ampere - Nintendo Switch sell-through numbers are below 100 million units.

Even with superior information and sales data, they still got it wrong lol. Even VGchartz got it right.

 

[fiendcode]

Nintendo sell-through is not more reliable than Ampere.

Nintendo use GFK/NPD/Media Create but for untracked country that's only an internal estimate with some errors margins.

Same as Ampere.

Nintendo gets channel checks directly from retailers and distributors in those untracked markets, not to mention their own direct sales which aren't reported (or even estimated by trackers) even in major markets like the US or Japan. They absolutely have access to more raw data than Ampere or anyone else, their estimates are the gold standard.

 

[BTB123]

Nintendo gets channel checks directly from retailers and distributors in those untracked markets, not to mention their own direct sales which aren't reported (or even estimated by trackers) even in major markets like the US or Japan. They absolutely have access to more raw data than Ampere or anyone else, their estimates are the gold standard.

They also have data on how many Switches are being used.

 

[enpleinjour]

Normal people without NPD and other trackers data - Nintendo Switch sell-through numbers are above 100 million units thanks to Nintendo data.
VGchartz - Estimated above 100 million units at the end of December 2021.
Ampere - Nintendo Switch sell-through numbers are below 100 million units.

Even with superior information and sales data, they still got it wrong lol. Even VGchartz got it right.

Imagine complaining about a <1% error margin lol

 

[Bodokoh]

Literally every thing you say here is within a 1% margin lol

How can there be a 1% margin when Nintendo already stated the sell-through numbers?
Armchair analysists and VGchartz got it right, while Ampere, despite Nintendo's earnings report, failed to estimate correctly.

 

[fiendcode]

Nintendo's figures are lower bound too. So it's always "over X million" sell-through.

Undershot NSW sales by barely 1%. :/. Also, this time they didn't estimate NSW sales

I'm sure they did but it's behind the paywall this time. Like I said, their estimates are good but it's also worth noting both times we've had them since IB formed they came in below Nintendo's lower bound (89.7m vs 90m+, 99.9m vs 100m+) and this during periods of regional supply constraints for Switch/OLED.

They also apparently weren't aware Nintendo even sometimes gave sell-through IR figures in their previous report, we pointed it out for them.

 

[Welfare]

Ampere has access to US, UK, EU and JP numbers. That represents 85%+ of Xbox's marketshare. Their numbers are going to quite accurate regardless since they cover so much of the market.

I also think the assumption of ratios being relatively constant is not accurate. There's a lot of change in the first year or so compared to later on.

For instance when MS announced 10M XB1 "shortly" shipped, XB1's sell through in the US was around 5-6M, meaning around 6-7M shipped (which might be underselling it as shipped inventory is bigger during the holidays). That would represent 60-70% of the total.

There's not too much difference between estimates though, around 1M or so, and with RotW being unknown changing it from 10% of sales to 15% of sales would produce that 1M margin error.

US LTD as of November 2014 was 4.9M, a couple weeks after they announced near 10M shipments. Get rid of half of November's sales due to Black Friday (would be way more than just half but we'll be generous here and also ignore the week before) Xbox One would've been below 4.3M sold through as of that "near 10M" announcement.

Given October LTD was 3.66M, October itself sold 168K and XB1 sales tripled in November week 1 over October week 4, October week 4 Xbox actually outsold PS4 (that sold 297K that month) Xbox One would've been actually around 4.0M sold through when they announced "near 10M".

 

[Salesman]

lower bound (89.7m vs 90m+, 99.9m vs 100m

I mean, really? That is damn close to official. Worth noting that they aren't far of. Barely couple percentages. VGCHARTZ should be happy if they are missing it so close, but they are not so close

 

[fiendcode]

I mean, really? That is damn close to official. Worth noting that they aren't far of. Barely couple percentages. VGCHARTZ should be happy if they are missing it so close, but they are not so close

Chartz was about as close tbh and above the lower bound. If the Nintendo estimates were accurate then so was Chartz technically (and Ampere not).

Of course Chartz is made up bullshit and Ampere's not.

 

[Salesman]

If the Nintendo estimates were accurate then so was Chartz technically (and Ampere not).

Of course Chartz is

??? There was already a warnings before for discreting Ampere for no good reason. Also, last time Ampere missed NSW numbers by barely 1%, that's nothing

 

[fiendcode]

??? There was already a warnings before for discreting Ampere for no good reason. Also, last time Ampere missed NSW numbers by barely 1%, that's nothing

Read carefully, no one is discrediting Ampere. There were efforts in here to discredit the hard work Welfare does though, despite him being open and laying out his (sound) methodology. That's probably deserving of being actioned imo.

 

[Salesman]

Read carefully, no one is discrediting Ampere. There were efforts in here to discredit the hard work Welfare does though, despite him being open and laying out his (sound) methodology. That's probably deserving of being actioned imo.

Welfare doesn't have access to anything. That's a fact. Of course il will take Ampere's numbers over Welfares and that fact that must end up here. No further discussions.

 

[Welfare]

Read carefully, no one is discrediting Ampere. There were efforts in here to discredit the hard work Welfare does though, despite him being open and laying out his (sound) methodology. That's probably deserving of being actioned imo.

I'm fine with anyone wanting to critique me. I've never put myself on the level on firms like Ampere or something like IDC. I'm not selling my estimates or forecasts.

I will criticize IDC for their wonky estimates when there's data to back it up *cough*2015*cough* tho

No one has to take me seriously. I will defend myself but not to put myself ahead of anything. Merely clarification.

 

[fiendcode]

Welfare doesn't have access to anything. That's a fact. Of course il will take Ampere's numbers over Welfares and that fact that must end up here. No further discussions.

It's not one or the other though. Global estimates are tough and Ampere, Nintendo and yes, even Welfare are reliable and credible based on what we know of their sources and/or methodology. When you take one as gospel you're going invite this sort of back and forth.

 

[Welfare]

Welfare doesn't have access to anything. That's a fact. Of course il will take Ampere's numbers over Welfares and that fact that must end up here. No further discussions.

I've technically never given sell through estimates so I can't be compared to Ampere anyway

 

[HFbob]

No further discussions.

Lmao, are you a staff member? Let them do their job and stop trying to control discussion.

 

[Salesman]

Lmao, are you a staff member? Let them do their job and stop trying to control discussion.

Of course i am. :/ It is about discrediting Ampere by someone. They've missed NSW number last report by barely 1%. That's funny and sad to call out them for tiny mistake. You won't get a so close estimate by anyone

It's not one or the other though. Global estimates are tough and Ampere, Nintendo and yes, even Welfare are reliable and credible based on what we know of their sources and/or methodology. When you take one as gospel you're going invite this sort of back and forth.

Welfare can have a methodology on his own, but it is not close to have a access to NPD, GSD and Media Create data in any single way. It is not even close. Of course i will take their data with more credibility or anyone else.