[Aldora Intelligence] PS5 61.7M, XBS 28.3M shipments (end of June 2024)

enpleinjour

Member
Enthusiast
Pronouns
He/Him
b6d1ad86-0969-41fd-bb9d-4104fe7be34d.png




Aldora Intelligence is headed by Joost, those may be familiar with the Professor's prior company, SuperData, as well as contributing recently in the Valve/Wolfire case with a 500 page pdf on the videogame market (unfortunately most of it redacted due to having private Valve/console data).

Since it lines up with PS Q reports, this is shipment.
Generally lines up with my estimates:
I had XBS shipment at ~26M end of 2023, so current shipment around 28.5-29M
Ampere meanwhile had 27.1M sold at the end of 2023, so quite a bit higher.
 
Given that Xbox focus on power never seems to work out, just like Nintendo home consoles couldn't compete before either, i wonder why they never tried the Nintendo route, ignore specs and try to innovate gaming in other ways like the Wii motion controls, or DS split screen, that kind of stuff saved Nintendo from the likes of gamecube.
 
Another interesting graph
The_Wall_Street_Journal_-_Xbox_Lost_the_Console_War._Now_Its_Redefining_Gaming._WSJ_The_Economics_Of_yuZtbsSrdwo_-_987x555_-_1m02s.png
Looking at that graph it seems to contradict all that ''PC is stealing every console user away'', i mean spending on consoles and PC seem to be basically equally rising, with console spending even going ahead of PC in more recent years. So yes it seems to confirm that PC killing consoles is a gaming forum myth.
 
Given that Xbox focus on power never seems to work out, just like Nintendo home consoles couldn't compete before either, i wonder why they never tried the Nintendo route, ignore specs and try to innovate gaming in other ways like the Wii motion controls, or DS split screen, that kind of stuff saved Nintendo from the likes of gamecube.
They should do it next-gen. Focus on a U$399,90 price point and put the best tech you can do on it, breaking even. Avoid the U$600~U$700 trend.
 
b6d1ad86-0969-41fd-bb9d-4104fe7be34d.png






Since it lines up with PS Q reports, this is shipment.
Generally lines up with my estimates:
I had XBS shipment at ~26M end of 2023, so current shipment around 28.5-29M
Ampere meanwhile had 27.1M sold at the end of 2023, so quite a bit higher.

yeah, "my estimates" were also similar, we had a conversation about it with Welfare and others in a thread, it seems that our estimates were the correct ones
 
Given that Xbox focus on power never seems to work out, just like Nintendo home consoles couldn't compete before either, i wonder why they never tried the Nintendo route, ignore specs and try to innovate gaming in other ways like the Wii motion controls, or DS split screen, that kind of stuff saved Nintendo from the likes of gamecube.
Competing with Sony on console specs and price with Sony is easier than competing on software with Nintendo for Microsoft.

Wii and Kinect were both successful, but after that only Nintendo recovered with Switch. Microsoft tried something different with both Xbox One (all-in-one entertainment system) and Xbox Series (S and X) + Gamepass with the results we know.
 
Another interesting graph
The_Wall_Street_Journal_-_Xbox_Lost_the_Console_War._Now_Its_Redefining_Gaming._WSJ_The_Economics_Of_yuZtbsSrdwo_-_987x555_-_1m02s.png
There is some weird stuff in the post-pandemic period. We haven't had much evidence of PC collapsing, especially with Steam hitting higher concurrent users. Mobile wasn't negatively affected the pandemic, only the post pandemic period and SensorTower data has the US and China start recovering in 2023 so the drop should negligible. Meanwhile, the console market seems to show much higher growth than what was seen in 2023. There were a few big games and the PS5 did get huge shipments but, 2022 wasn't small either, just had some PS5 shortages.
 
yeah, "my estimates" were also similar, we had a conversation about it with Welfare and others in a thread, it seems that our estimates were the correct ones
These are just their estimates, which are very wrong on Xbox 360. It objectively did not ship only 900K after June 2014.

Just saying, XB1 and XBS would be much higher if that were the case. Cool that Aldora shared this, but it's not definitive.

I'm not even sure why XBX is 24.7M. We know it was 24.0M December 2005 and XBX did not ship more units after that.
 
Last edited:
There is some weird stuff in the post-pandemic period. We haven't had much evidence of PC collapsing, especially with Steam hitting higher concurrent users. Mobile wasn't negatively affected the pandemic, only the post pandemic period and SensorTower data has the US and China start recovering in 2023 so the drop should negligible. Meanwhile, the console market seems to show much higher growth than what was seen in 2023. There were a few big games and the PS5 did get huge shipments but, 2022 wasn't small either, just had some PS5 shortages.
Keep in mind, this is about spending. Steam is all about users buying games on steep discount, so of course that will mean that console spending is very competitive when its compared to money spent on PC gaming. I mean Switch which has a user base of over 100 million has tons of games that still cost full price 7 years after release, that will of course lead to console spending being very competitive compared to say Steam spending.
 
Looking at that graph it seems to contradict all that ''PC is stealing every console user away'', i mean spending on consoles and PC seem to be basically equally rising, with console spending even going ahead of PC in more recent years. So yes it seems to confirm that PC killing consoles is a gaming forum myth.

Yes, the data never supported that. Both Newzoo and Aldora have it very differently:

Global-games-market-revenues-in-2023-per-segment.png

Screenshot_2024-09-17_at_18.15.23.png


There is some weird stuff in the post-pandemic period. We haven't had much evidence of PC collapsing, especially with Steam hitting higher concurrent users. Mobile wasn't negatively affected the pandemic, only the post pandemic period and SensorTower data has the US and China start recovering in 2023 so the drop should negligible. Meanwhile, the console market seems to show much higher growth than what was seen in 2023. There were a few big games and the PS5 did get huge shipments but, 2022 wasn't small either, just had some PS5 shortages.

PC gaming hardware sales collapsed and Steam CCU does not reflect actual in game spend like that.
Circana recently put out a report that showed PC gaming declining.

Capture_decran_2024-09-17_a_15.32.51.png
 
Given that Xbox focus on power never seems to work out, just like Nintendo home consoles couldn't compete before either, i wonder why they never tried the Nintendo route, ignore specs and try to innovate gaming in other ways like the Wii motion controls, or DS split screen, that kind of stuff saved Nintendo from the likes of gamecube.
I think this generation has been their attempt to branch out from just trying to be the most powerful console. They've wanted to take that coveted spot of "the Netflix of gaming" for basically this entire generation, with affordable options like the Series S available. It just hasn't worked out for them since their attempt at building a library of strong first-party exclusives to make the service more compelling has been pretty dire. And in the end, I think the hard truth is that a large chunk of users just aren't interested in that idea.
 
Last edited:
Yes, the data never supported that. Both Newzoo and Aldora have it very differently:

Global-games-market-revenues-in-2023-per-segment.png

Screenshot_2024-09-17_at_18.15.23.png




PC gaming hardware sales collapsed and Steam CCU does not reflect actual in game spend like that.
Circana recently put out a report that showed PC gaming declining.

Capture_decran_2024-09-17_a_15.32.51.png
The Aldora graph you have there is an estimated projection for 2024 rather than the 2023 data you have from the Newzoo report
There's reasonable chance that the PC hardware market dropped but, I'm not sure if that translated a ~10% drop year-over-year for the wider PC market. The Circana data only shows a 4% drop (and that's just for the US) and the NewZoo report shows a 5% rise. Even that Aldora forecast is showing a 4.2% growth for the game market (exceeding the console market growth) that feels like it would be ridiculous off a massive drop.
 
I think the inherent weakness of PC game spending is the unwillingness from its users to pay full money for games, it will always make consoles a more lucrative market, 100 million Switch users that pay full price for Breath of the wild still after 7 years, compared to people spending 10$ on a RE remake on Steam?
 
Honestly kind of expected worse for XBOX.
it's kind of hard to do worse than that, after all the initiatives and investments that microsoft has made for xsx/xss. Otherwise we would be talking about a disaster on the levels of WiiU.
 
Last edited:
These are just their estimates, which are very wrong on Xbox 360. It objectively did not ship only 900K after June 2014.

Just saying, XB1 and XBS would be much higher if that were the case. Cool that Aldora shared this, but it's not definitive.

I'm not even sure why XBX is 24.7M. We know it was 24.0M December 2005 and XBX did not ship more units after that.
of course these are their estimates, but it is a reputable company cited by the wall street journal. I honestly give more credit to them than to my own or other users' estimates
 
Are we sure OG Xbox was discountinued in 2005 and not 2007 ?
We have NPD data for 2006. It's just a straight line down after December 2005. It's indicative of no more shipments after 2005

MonthSales
Nov-05​
202,000​
Dec-05​
420,000​
Jan-06​
94,000​
Feb-06​
93,000​
Mar-06​
88,000​
Apr-06​
41,000​
May-06​
31,000​
Jun-06​
29,000​
Jul-06​
17,000​
Aug-06​
14,000​
Sep-06​
8,000​
Oct-06​
6,000​
Nov-06​
4,000​
Dec-06​
5,000​
of course these are their estimates, but it is a reputable company cited by the wall street journal. I honestly give more credit to them than to my own or other users' estimates
Nearly every agency used as a source by a big reporter can be described this way. IDG is the same, Ampere was used by Financial Times. This one data point doesn't point to anyone's estimates being right or wrong especially when IDG points to ~27-28M Xbox's end of 2023 and Ampere were expecting ~27M sold through end of 2023.

Again, "reputation" doesn't excuse the blatantly incorrect Xbox 360 number. It doesn't line up at all with the public information we have direct from Microsoft. It also makes me curious how they arrived to XB1 being 57.9M. That looks to be just them taking the old +79M number and giving XB1 ~58M, in which case Aldora thinks the +21M for XBS was shipments.

In fact, using that assumption I would have XBS around 28.5M right now. 🤔
 
The analysis is missing a key component - Nintendo Switch and how it specifically has impacted sales.

I would argue that its success has been at the expense of the console growth, which is why the HD twins look same or worse.

Also, did they just add 5 million to PS2 again? I swear that sales number keeps going up every time I see it.
 
b6d1ad86-0969-41fd-bb9d-4104fe7be34d.png




Aldora Intelligence is headed by Joost, those may be familiar with the Professor's prior company, SuperData, as well as contributing recently in the Valve/Wolfire case with a 500 page pdf on the videogame market (unfortunately most of it redacted due to having private Valve/console data).

Since it lines up with PS Q reports, this is shipment.
Generally lines up with my estimates:
I had XBS shipment at ~26M end of 2023, so current shipment around 28.5-29M
Ampere meanwhile had 27.1M sold at the end of 2023, so quite a bit higher.

The completely unforced collapse after 360 is insane. All they had to do is stick some AMD parts in a box and sell it in more countries and they would have been fine, it was Sony who had to adapt their business model coming out of that generation. Instead they cleared the deck of the people responsible for 360's success and turned it into a vehicle for various pet interests in the rest of Microsoft's business.
Given that Xbox focus on power never seems to work out, just like Nintendo home consoles couldn't compete before either, i wonder why they never tried the Nintendo route, ignore specs and try to innovate gaming in other ways like the Wii motion controls, or DS split screen, that kind of stuff saved Nintendo from the likes of gamecube.
Microsoft only entered the industry out of paranoia that computing was going to shift to the living room, and it's Sony rather than Nintendo who spoke rhetorically in the PS2/PS3 era about e.g. integrating Playstation into other electronics, pushing their proprietary media formats, allowing Linux installation, etc. All of which would have alarmed Microsoft.

Part of the reason they destroyed the Xbox business with XB1 was from doing a hard pivot to media/apps because they saw AppleTV/Chromecast/mobile streaming etc as the next competitor moving into this space. I don't think they'll ever primarily target Nintendo because Nintendo are only interested in running a videogame business, not establishing media/computing standards that would sidestep Windows.

At the end of the day if you look at where they stood at the end of the 360 generation there is absolutely nothing to suggest there is no room for a viable competitor to Playstation, it's just that Microsoft threw it away with awful decisions. Personally I think it's completely superfluous to have 2 companies offering 99% similar content on 99% similar hardware, and ask studios to basically support both Betamax and VHS forever, but we're seeing already with PS5Pro how Sony behave when they feel they have no direct competitor.

I'd also note that Microsoft had this entire 20 year period of trying to succeed in the living room yet made barely any contribution to improving the Windows experience on TVs. The reason they're now desperately trying to prop up Windows in the PC handheld market lately isn't because of Nintendo, but because Valve have caught them sleeping and have created a nightmare scenario for them - PC games detached from Windows.

I think the inherent weakness of PC game spending is the unwillingness from its users to pay full money for games, it will always make consoles a more lucrative market, 100 million Switch users that pay full price for Breath of the wild still after 7 years, compared to people spending 10$ on a RE remake on Steam?
Weakness? According to these charts it's been in the ballpark of all console spending combined for almost 10 years now. The "only buying cheap games" stuff is 2010 NeoGAF bunkum that's disproven by any observation of Steam's best sellers over the same 10 year period.
 
I think the inherent weakness of PC game spending is the unwillingness from its users to pay full money for games, it will always make consoles a more lucrative market, 100 million Switch users that pay full price for Breath of the wild still after 7 years, compared to people spending 10$ on a RE remake on Steam?
Let’s not do this platform warring thing about pc sale spending okay?
 
Again, "reputation" doesn't excuse the blatantly incorrect Xbox 360 number. It doesn't line up at all with the public information we have direct from Microsoft. It also makes me curious how they arrived to XB1 being 57.9M. That looks to be just them taking the old +79M number and giving XB1 ~58M, in which case Aldora thinks the +21M for XBS was shipments.

In fact, using that assumption I would have XBS around 28.5M right now. 🤔
What made a source trustworthy is how they get numbers IMO.

We known Ampere have acess to Media Create, GfK, NPD data.
So they have very accurate figures for something like 80% of the worldwide video game hardware market.
That alone mean Ampere estimates will be better than most others.
The issue is that Xbox LTD as of late 2023 from Ampere is currently unknown.

These Xbox numbers from Adora looks very much more guessing than anything.
 
IDG is the same, Ampere was used by Financial Times. This one data point doesn't point to anyone's estimates being right or wrong especially when IDG points to ~27-28M Xbox's end of 2023 and Ampere were expecting ~27M sold through end of 2023.

IDG depends on if 81M is Mar 2024 or Dec 2023, the former was once disclosed as 77M which has XBS somewhere around 25M.

The Aldora graph you have there is an estimated projection for 2024 rather than the 2023 data you have from the Newzoo report
There's reasonable chance that the PC hardware market dropped but, I'm not sure if that translated a ~10% drop year-over-year for the wider PC market. The Circana data only shows a 4% drop (and that's just for the US) and the NewZoo report shows a 5% rise. Even that Aldora forecast is showing a 4.2% growth for the game market (exceeding the console market growth) that feels like it would be ridiculous off a massive drop.

If US PC is down 4%, I'd imagine EU PC is down considerably more due to the weaker economy EU is facing. We had Germany PC gaming devices -17% and discrete cards -7% in 2023.


What made a source trustworthy is how they get numbers IMO.

We known Ampere have acess to Media Create, GfK, NPD data.
So they have very accurate figures for something like 80% of the worldwide video game hardware market.
That alone mean Ampere estimates will be better than most others.

These Xbox numbers from Adora looks very much more guessing than anything.

The person behind these estimates not only had access to the usual data sources but recently had access to private Valve, and other big publisher financial data, something not even IDG/Ampere can have access to.

The reason being is that he was commissioned for a report for the court on the Valve/Wolfire case.
 
IDG depends on if 81M is Mar 2024 or Dec 2023, the former was once disclosed as 77M which has XBS somewhere around 25M.
If it were 81M end of March 2024, XBS would be ~25M at that point, and would only be ~25.5M end of June. That would make a shipment LTD of 28.3M much more improbable.
 
Again, "reputation" doesn't excuse the blatantly incorrect Xbox 360 number. It doesn't line up at all with the public information we have direct from Microsoft. It also makes me curious how they arrived to XB1 being 57.9M. That looks to be just them taking the old +79M number and giving XB1 ~58M, in which case Aldora thinks the +21M for XBS was shipments.

In fact, using that assumption I would have XBS around 28.5M right now. 🤔
maybe they got it wrong or confused with xbox 360, but that doesn't mean everything else is wrong. Personally I always thought that this was the number of the Xboxes distributed, Maybe my estimate would have been 29 instead of 28,3, but it doesn't really change much
 
Last edited:
yeah they probably figured out to just 2x for xbox and 3x for ps npd to get global sales/shipments lol. because these are very close to that. so, close to accurate most likely. no estimation will be exact.

Their PS3/360 figures are likely incorrect as has been hashed out here a few times but it's controversial so lets not get into that. But it casts doubt for me on the accuracy of the rest of their numbers.

For PS Sony gives the WW numbers and I dont see a lot of point distinguishing between sold in and sold through TBH. For Xbox, 2X the NPD should be close.

These type of estimates are about as accurate as the sophisticated posters here could come up with, or probably even less.

interesting to see that mobile downturn. that is what i had thought. i believer Piscetalla was recently casting it as mobile to the moon and that doesnt agree with latest data.

console up pc down at the end of the graph there also seems at odds with prevailing wisdom, but i guess it could be some sort of ps5 stock blip?

Looking at that graph it seems to contradict all that ''PC is stealing every console user away'', i mean spending on consoles and PC seem to be basically equally rising, with console spending even going ahead of PC in more recent years. So yes it seems to confirm that PC killing consoles is a gaming forum myth.

ehh, if you blindly trust whoever made the graph. overall we do know at least in terms of console hardware sales, it's trending PlayStation down 5%, xbox down 10% or something like that this gen. that's pretty incontrovertible. compare ps5 sony reported worldwide sales to ps4 for hard data. not sure where switch would fit in, i tend to put Nintendo in a somewhat separate category. steam also occasionally sets new user records, although too be fair steam is not pc gaming. hardware also doesnt count software etc obviously though. including prior gen still in service etc.

if it's true thats interesting though.
Given that Xbox focus on power never seems to work out,

That seems odd to say given if we presume that Sony is the success here, theyre basically literally built on OMG LOOK AT TEH GFXXXXWTFBBQ (ON TEH SONY EXCLUSIVE)!!!! Going back many years ago to countless killzone spam gifs, Uncharted etc. Maybe Xbox should double down on power (or it would be more correct to say, begin stressing gfx might on their exclusives more, which they mostly have not done, exception maybe being forza). I'd say Sony is the one who has focused more on power. It just typically has worked out where their hardware has less, in theory. PS5 has done amazing holding up against XSX though in how actual games run, and I still am not sure how MS fubared a 52 to 36 CU advantage, even beyond the clocks leveling it out somewhat. Typical MS. If you look at 360, it's success was based on being as powerful as PS3 despite a year head start. Which is hard to do, so I guess Sony equally fubared that one lol.

If you say "focus on power" for this gen PS5 has gone toe to toe with XSX on actual games. So theres no real off paper power edge for us to get results about IMO. i keep waiting for xsx to show an advantage in newer more advanced games, and it keeps not happening. GTA 6 could be interesting, but if history is an indication PS5 will do fine, and it's too late anyway (ignoring the PS5 Pro impact)
 
Last edited:
Given that Xbox focus on power never seems to work out, just like Nintendo home consoles couldn't compete before either, i wonder why they never tried the Nintendo route, ignore specs and try to innovate gaming in other ways like the Wii motion controls, or DS split screen, that kind of stuff saved Nintendo from the likes of gamecube.
Microsoft is not an innovative or creative company. Their biggest and most innovative game which popularized multiplayer console gaming was acquired (Halo) rather than developed in-house. The other one Gears of War was from Epic.

Microsoft is in a difficult position right now. GamePass isn't growing enough to meet the investors expectations and their console business is in decline.
 
maybe they got it wrong or confused with xbox 360, but that doesn't mean everything else is wrong. Personally I always thought that this was the number of the Xboxes distributed, Maybe my estimate would have been 29 instead of 28,3, but it doesn't really change much
Xbox and Xbox 360 are incorrect to such a degree I wouldn't look at their XB1/XBS figures as anything more than another set of numbers. Throw it on the pile of varying Xbox numbers.

Microsoft would provide half year shipment updates for Xbox. We know Nvidia stopped sending chips in mid 2005, the final figure for Xbox was 24.0M end of 2005, and we have NPD showing a straight decline of sales in 2006 that backs up there being no additional shipments. 24.7M is a weird figure to say the least.

If you were to add that random 700K to Xbox 360 because of an error, there would still be no argument it's an impossible figure.

2 out 4 being wrong doesn't look good if you want the other two to be accurate, and like I mentioned above, it's likely Aldora just took the 79M figure from last year, put XB1 ~58M, and took the 21M XBS figure to be shipments as of June 2021.
 
it's kind of hard to do worse than that, after all the initiatives and investments that microsoft has made for xsx/xss. Otherwise we would be talking about a disaster on the levels of WiiU.

It’s not hard to do worse than that. It has already passed the WiiU and the Gamecube and it will pass the N64.

The way people talk about it you would think it was WiiU numbers but its already more than double the WiiU.
 
Looking at that graph it seems to contradict all that ''PC is stealing every console user away'', i mean spending on consoles and PC seem to be basically equally rising, with console spending even going ahead of PC in more recent years. So yes it seems to confirm that PC killing consoles is a gaming forum myth.
probably didn't help that time where pc parts were spent on bitcoin mining and not gaming
 
Aren't those 360 numbers basically unchanged from June 2013? We know the XBox 360 sold much more than that, that's just when they stopped reporting numbers.

The PS numbers are basically just pulled from Sony's investor page, but other than those I'm not sure how accurate these Aldora Intelligence numbers are.
 
Is Aldora Intelligence the same as Aldora Interactive? Both reports are contradictory. I'm trying to find a recent report from Aldora Intelligence because I find it odd that last year’s console growth was similar to the year of the pandemic

Yes. The WSJ one is recent, while the report was earlier this year.

Would be interesting to know if Chinese market is accounted in those PC vs Console spending numbers (probably not).

Yes, China is included. PC would not be able to have such high revenue without China. China's PC revenue is something like $15B, so China being absent would be very noticeable.
 
The decline in the PC market, while significant, isn't entirely surprising. In regions like the EU, owning a high-performance PC can be prohibitively expensive. Gaming laptops, meanwhile, often fall short in either price or performance. With the anticipated releases of the Switch 2 and GTA VI, 2025 is shaping up to be a monumental year for consoles, further solidifying their dominance in the gaming industry.
 
Looking at their 360's estimation it puts all their numbers in check.

Anyway, Xbox Series based on all we have seems to be around 30 million, without oficial numbers is enough for a rough idea.
 
Aren't those 360 numbers basically unchanged from June 2013? We know the XBox 360 sold much more than that, that's just when they stopped reporting numbers.

The PS numbers are basically just pulled from Sony's investor page, but other than those I'm not sure how accurate these Aldora Intelligence numbers are.
The last official Xbox 360 numbers are 83.7M as of March 2014 and "over 84M" as of June 2014.

Looking at their 360's estimation it puts all their numbers in check.

Anyway, Xbox Series based on all we have seems to be around 30 million, without oficial numbers is enough for a rough idea.
Yes, evryone seams to agree on sales being around 30M (give or take few milions).
 
Yes. The WSJ one is recent, while the report was earlier this year.
The report on projected spending for this year is from last month (Aug 9), but it seems to only cover software, while the WSJ graphic supposedly includes hardware for PC and console (not for mobile). Thanks anyway.

The decline in the PC market, while significant, isn't entirely surprising. In regions like the EU, owning a high-performance PC can be prohibitively expensive. Gaming laptops, meanwhile, often fall short in either price or performance. With the anticipated releases of the Switch 2 and GTA VI, 2025 is shaping up to be a monumental year for consoles, further solidifying their dominance in the gaming industry.
Based on NVIDIA and AMD reports, I don't see that decline. Could it be coming from Intel? They are not specifying gaming revenew.

NVIDIA
Captura-de-pantalla-2024-09-18-093133.png%22 alt=%22Captura-de-pantalla-2024-09-18-093133


AMD
Captura-de-pantalla-2024-09-18-093155.png
 
So, the Xbox family sold something like this?
Xbox - 24 millions
Xbox 360 - 84 millions
Xbox one - 55 millions
Xbox series S/X - 30 millions

It’s that correct?
 
Looks like the XBS numbers aren't as grim as we initially thought?

Though you could make the case that the PS5 is finally at full throttle, and the gap might start widening at this point, especially since Microsoft will start releasing games as multiplatform now.
 
Looks like the XBS numbers aren't as grim as we initially thought?

Though you could make the case that the PS5 is finally at full throttle, and the gap might start widening at this point, especially since Microsoft will start releasing games as multiplatform now.

~30 million isn't catastrophic but it's pretty disappointing for a generation that started with the expectation of some improvement over Xbox One.
 
Back
Top Bottom