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82.523.607 units of PSP were produced between November 2004 and September 2014

Evilms said:
This video is for PS4 PS3 and Vita only, it might be useful for those who want to know more about the Vita.

But ZhugeEx's analysis of the PS2 is far more relevant than other theories, what he says makes sense.

We know that the PS2 was 155.1 on March 31, 2012.

For the following year Sony announced 16.5 million (combining PS3+PS2), the year before it was 13.9 for PS3 and 4.1 for PS2.

Sony mentioned in its reports a significant drop for the PS3 in that year, and didn't comment on the PS2.

Let's say the PS2 stagnated at worst, so that's 4.1 as in 2012. That leaves 12.4 for the PS3 in the best-case scenario.


155.1+4.1 = 159.2 at least
Click to expand...
Agreed I definitely learned more about Vita. ZhugeEx's analysis relies on an assumption, so it's no better than your's or mine. I mean you are implying a dying console which just sold 4.1 million the year prior some how sold more or even stagnated being a year older and missing an entire quarter due to it being disconitued that very year? ZhugeEx made that assumption due to Sony not mentioning the PS2 in a blurb where Sony says the "primary" reason for the decline is due to our current consoles. Sony literally mentioned PS3, PSP, and Vita. I'm not sure why you would expect Sony to mention their recently completely discontinued console, which was also missing a quarter of sales as a "primary" reason for declining sales. Not being mentioned as a primary reason doesn't mean it also wasn't in decline. It's decline can't be significant or even contribute much to the overall decline because its a dead console and was literally discontinued that very fiscal year.

Edit: Also Sony didn't say the PS3's unit sales decreased significantly, they were describing a significant decrease in revenue. Sony only mentioned the unit sales for PS3 were down but never said significantly. So really all the PS3 has to be is lower than that 13.9 from the year prior. If it was 13.8 for example, that leaves 2.7 million for PS2. This is why we can't just take ZhugeEX's ananlysis and just believe it because people can interpret data very differently. I'll repeat that blurb with significant was not describing the PS3's unit sales, so the PS3 was down but to what degeree we don't know. So really the range should start at 157.8 million atleast for PS2 but have no cap due to us not knowing the degree of the PS3's unit sales decline.
 
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Evilms said:
This video is for PS4 PS3 and Vita only, it might be useful for those who want to know more about the Vita.

But ZhugeEx's analysis of the PS2 is far more relevant than other theories, what he says makes sense.

We know that the PS2 was 155.1 on March 31, 2012.

For the following year Sony announced 16.5 million (combining PS3+PS2), the year before it was 13.9 for PS3 and 4.1 for PS2.

Sony mentioned in its reports a significant drop for the PS3 in that year, and didn't comment on the PS2.

Let's say the PS2 stagnated at worst, so that's 4.1 as in 2012. That leaves 12.4 for the PS3 in the best-case scenario.


155.1+4.1 = 159.2 at least
Click to expand...
PS2 was discontinued before the end of it's next FY. 4.1m wouldn't be flat from the previous year, it'd be an increase as it's only 3 quarters.
 
The PS2 had an above-average longevity: 4.1 million is not unrealistic.
Many tend to forget emerging markets, where it sold enormously, especially at the end of its life and even beyond.
 
Evilms said:
The PS2 had an above-average longevity: 4.1 million is not unrealistic.
Many tend to forget emerging markets, where it sold enormously, especially at the end of its life and even beyond.
Click to expand...
4.1m in 9 months in 2012 kinda is unrealistic. Japan sales in that window were a whopping 44k.
 
fiendcode said:
4.1m in 9 months in 2012 kinda is unrealistic. Japan sales in that window were a whopping 44k.
Click to expand...

Not especially in 9 months.

Because do you think its sales stopped the day Sony announced the end of its production for January 2013? Of course not.
Just because NPD stopped tracking sales in the U.S. and that was the end of it in Japan doesn't mean it wasn't selling elsewhere! The console continued to sell in other markets, especially in emerging countries, where it was a late arrival, a point not to be overlooked.
 
I have 170 million copies of software sold for the Vita.
I don’t know….maybe the range between 15 and 17 millions is plausible.
 
Evilms said:
Not especially in 9 months.

Because do you think its sales stopped the day Sony announced the end of its production for January 2013? Of course not.
Just because NPD stopped tracking sales in the U.S. and that was the end of it in Japan doesn't mean it wasn't selling elsewhere! The console continued to sell in other markets, especially in emerging countries, where it was a late arrival, a point not to be overlooked.
Click to expand...
Sony reports shipped figures, so yes of course the console continued to sell in other markets but those are consoles Sony already shipped/sold. What ever date Sony annouced the end of PS2 production would be the final consoles sold/shipped. This is the figure we are looking for because a console can't sell more than it shipped. What ever PS2 were sold after that date are just consoles Sony already shipped/sold so they would already be accounted for. So yes you are arguing the PS2 somehow sold more in its final year of 9 months because PS2 was apparently discontinued in Japan in December 2012 and elsewhere in January 2013, than the PS2 did a year prior where it was a year younger and had the full 12 months in the fiscal year (the 4.1 million).

Regardless we have more information now including a cap of Sony saying they sold 525 million consoles as of August 2018, a hard figure for PS1, PS4 (as of July 22, 2018), and now PSP. PS3 has a very accurate figure so that leaves Vita and PS2. The higher Vita, the lower PS2 and vice versa. We have no reason to just run with ZhugeEX's assumption based off a blurb not including a dead console as the "primary" reason for why unit sales are down.
 
Phenom08 said:
Agreed I definitely learned more about Vita. ZhugeEx's analysis relies on an assumption, so it's no better than your's or mine. I mean you are implying a dying console which just sold 4.1 million the year prior some how sold more or even stagnated being a year older and missing an entire quarter due to it being disconitued that very year? ZhugeEx made that assumption due to Sony not mentioning the PS2 in a blurb where Sony says the "primary" reason for the decline is due to our current consoles. Sony literally mentioned PS3, PSP, and Vita. I'm not sure why you would expect Sony to mention their recently completely discontinued console, which was also missing a quarter of sales as a "primary" reason for declining sales. Not being mentioned as a primary reason doesn't mean it also wasn't in decline. It's decline can't be significant or even contribute much to the overall decline because its a dead console and was literally discontinued that very fiscal year.

Edit: Also Sony didn't say the PS3's unit sales decreased significantly, they were describing a significant decrease in revenue. Sony only mentioned the unit sales for PS3 were down but never said significantly. So really all the PS3 has to be is lower than that 13.9 from the year prior. If it was 13.8 for example, that leaves 2.7 million for PS2. This is why we can't just take ZhugeEX's ananlysis and just believe it because people can interpret data very differently. I'll repeat that blurb with significant was not describing the PS3's unit sales, so the PS3 was down but to what degeree we don't know. So really the range should start at 157.8 million atleast for PS2 but have no cap due to us not knowing the degree of the PS3's unit sales decline.
Click to expand...
Yeah, this makes sense especially if you consider the PS2 below 160M theory because no PR.

I feel we will finally know the answer for PS2 final HW numbers when Switch HW are at 155M at some point in 2025 (more reporters will ask Sony about it, maybe).
 
Eddy said:
Yeah, this makes sense especially if you consider the PS2 below 160M theory because no PR.

I feel we will finally know the answer for PS2 final HW numbers when Switch HW are at 155M at some point in 2025 (more reporters will ask Sony about it, maybe).
Click to expand...
Sony will have zero interest in disclose PS2 sales unless Switch shipments stop and PS2 remains ahead.
 
An old IGN interview with Shawn Layden from 2014.

Discussing an experience he had recently in Tokyo, in which he was given one of the last 30 PSPs ever manufactured as a present (there are 82 million PSPs in the wild), Layden suggested that because Vita hasn't followed PSP's "hockey stick" sales spike, many people assume it's in trouble. PSP, he said, was a "slow burn" over time that brought it to that number following its spike early on.
Click to expand...

sea.ign.com

Vita Sales Are Picking Up Thanks to PS4 Remote Play

SCEA President and CEO talks about the present and future of Sony's handheld.
sea.ign.com sea.ign.com
 
Good performance from the PSP, which is often called a sales failure. It wasn’t a failure, it was just up against an absolute beast.

That was a great time to be into portables, with the innovation of the DS and the hitherto unprecedented power in a handheld which the PSP offered.
 
Roger Rabbit said:
Good performance from the PSP, which is often called a sales failure. It wasn’t a failure, it was just up against an absolute beast.

That was a great time to be into portables, with the innovation of the DS and the hitherto unprecedented power in a handheld which the PSP offered.
Click to expand...
I think some people see PSP as a relative failure because Sony had ambitious plans for the system beyond games but didn't work.

Also people believed that Sony had a real shot of dethrone Nintendo in portables (Playstation's power brand was enormous at the time with PS2) but in the end was trounced by the NDS.

But selling 82.5 million is objectively a great mark.
 
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We had a whole thread on the PS2 numbers. It shipped at least 3.2M in the fiscal year after March 2012 https://www.installbaseforum.com/fo...now-available-please-read-up-to-post-71.1365/

525.3M Total PlayStation's back in August 2018:
PS1: 102.49M
PS2: >158.3M
PS3: 87.4M
PSP: 82.5M
PS4: 81.2M
PSV: <13.4M

There, we finally have an accurate Vita total. At best it crawled to 14M.

And that's with the PS2 at an absolute bare minimum. The more accurate floor is 159M, which would leave Vita with less than 13M. So actually the battle with Wii U is still super close.
 
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Surprised no one remembers when Shawn posted this in 2020. I thought this conversation had already happened.

 
Welfare said:
We had a whole thread on the PS2 numbers. It shipped at least 3.2M in the fiscal year after March 2012 https://www.installbaseforum.com/fo...now-available-please-read-up-to-post-71.1365/

525.3M Total PlayStation's back in August 2018:
PS1: 102.49M
PS2: >158.3M
PS3: 87.4M
PSP: 82.5M
PS4: 81.2M
PSV: <13.4M

There, we finally have an accurate Vita total. At best it crawled to 14M.
Click to expand...
I couldn't find that thread to save my life yesterday. That's what I was looking for and was pushing back on the range given by Evilms. This also helps confirm Vita is very possibly outsold by WiiU despite what several people have stated.
 
Phenom08 said:
I couldn't find that thread to save my life yesterday. That's what I was looking for and was pushing back on the range given by Evilms. This also helps confirm Vita is very possibly outsold by WiiU despite what several people have stated.
Click to expand...
Yes aproximate number is so close to Wii U that it's now impossible to state what console outsold the other.

ZhugeEX said:
Surprised no one remembers when Shawn posted this in 2020. I thought this conversation had already happened.

Click to expand...

Never saw this post.

I fond impressive that almost no one on the internet mentioned this number untill now.
 
Roger Rabbit said:
Good performance from the PSP, which is often called a sales failure. It wasn’t a failure, it was just up against an absolute beast.
Click to expand...
The big issue for PSP is how much it’s sales dropped outside of Japan in the second half of life especially 2009 onwards. By the end of it’s life it was a dead console sales wise and imo that was a factor to Vita being a failure similar to Wii -> WiiU transition
 
Blue Monty said:
The big issue for PSP is how much it’s sales dropped outside of Japan in the second half of life especially 2009 onwards. By the end of it’s life it was a dead console sales wise and imo that was a factor to Vita being a failure similar to Wii -> WiiU transition
Click to expand...
The big problem was piracy tbh. Still moved a decent amount of software overall (331m+) but it was very front loaded. Early on PSP had a home console like attach ratio but by the end it was right back in the handheld ghetto.
 
Phenom08 said:
I couldn't find that thread to save my life yesterday. That's what I was looking for and was pushing back on the range given by Evilms. This also helps confirm Vita is very possibly outsold by WiiU despite what several people have stated.
Click to expand...
Sorry but if we take a closer look, there's a problem with the 3.2 million figure for the PS2 during FY2012.

Because we know that the PS3 ended up with 87.4 million LTD as at 31/03/2017

(PS3 annual sales)
  • FY2006 : 3.6
  • FY2007 : 9.1
  • FY2008 : 10.1
  • FY2009 : 13
  • FY2010 : 14.3
  • FY2011 : 13.9
  • FY2012 : 16.5 (PS3+PS2) / so PS3 = 13.3 if PS2 = 3.2
  • FY2013 : 7.1
2013 Q1 + Q2 = 1.1 + 2 = 3.1
2013 Q3 : 3.3 (October - December 2013)
2013 Q4 : 0.7 (January - March 2014)

cgRF3ki.jpg

Without Q3 and Q4 that's 80.4 million PS3s as at 30/09/2013 whereas Sony announced a total of 80 million as at 02/11/2013, so it's ahead of schedule and that leaves nothing for October which is impossible.

https://web.archive.org/web/20140210005326/http://scei.co.jp/corporate/release/131106_e.html
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-rel...ach-80-million-units-worldwide-230771611.html
  • FY2014: 3.1
  • FY2015 : ?
  • FY2016 : ?
In addition, PS3 shipments to Europe and Australia ended in March 2016, and to North America in October 2016.
The final end of production was May 29, 2017 in Japan, so after FY2016 (March 31, 2017).

80.4 + Q3 + Q4 + FY2014 ===> 80.4 + 3.3 + 0.7 + 3.1 = 87.5 million as at March 31, 2015 (excluding FY2015 and FY2016, bearing in mind that it's impossible for it to have had 0 sales during this period since Sony was still producing it).

In addition, Sony announced 87.4 million for March 31, 2017.

We can say that the 3.2 million for the PS2 (FY2012) is too low a figure and therefore it doesn't work with Sony's official data.

**************************************************************************************

On the other hand, if we use 4.1 million as a minimum for the PS2, that gives us :

FY2012: 16.5 (PS3+PS2) / so PS3 = 12.4 if PS2 = 4.1

Without Q3 and Q4 ===> 64 + 12.4 + 3.1 = 79.5 million at September 30, 2013, knowing that Sony has announced a total of 80 million at 02/11/2013, so that leaves 500K for October which is realistic.

Let's continue :

79.5 + Q3 + Q4 + FY2014 ===> 79.5 + 3.3 + 0.7 + 3.1 = 86.6 million at March 31, 2015 (excluding FY2015 and FY2016 when it was still produced by Sony) which leaves 800K for these last two years to finish at 87.4 million.

*************************************************************************************
So back to what I said ==> the PS2 : 155.1 + 4.1 = 159.2 LTD

Which proves that ZhugeEx's analysis is closer to reality, and that makes sense.
 
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Evilms said:
Sorry but if we take a closer look, there's a problem with the 3.2 million figure for the PS2 during FY2012.

Because we know that the PS3 ended up with 87.4 million LTD as at 31/03/2017

(PS3 annual sales)
  • FY2006 : 3.6
  • FY2007 : 9.1
  • FY2008 : 10.1
  • FY2009 : 13
  • FY2010 : 14.3
  • FY2011 : 13.9
  • FY2012 : 16.5 (PS3+PS2) / so PS3 = 13.3 if PS2 = 3.2
  • FY2013 : 7.1
2013 Q1 + Q2 = 1.1 + 2 = 3.1
2013 Q3 : 3.3 (October - December 2013)
2013 Q4 : 0.7 (January - March 2014)

cgRF3ki.jpg

Without Q3 and Q4 that's 80.4 million PS3s as at 30/09/2013 whereas Sony announced a total of 80 million as at 02/11/2013, so it's ahead of schedule and that leaves nothing for October which is impossible.

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-rel...ach-80-million-units-worldwide-230771611.html
  • FY2014: 3.1
  • FY2015 : ?
  • FY2016 : ?
In addition, PS3 shipments to Europe and Australia ended in March 2016, and to North America in October 2016.
The final end of production was May 29, 2017 in Japan, so after FY2016 (March 31, 2017).

80.4 + Q3 + Q4 + FY2014 ===> 80.4 + 3.3 + 0.7 + 3.1 = 87.5 million as at March 31, 2015 (excluding FY2015 and FY2016, bearing in mind that it's impossible for it to have had 0 sales during this period since Sony was still producing it).

In addition, Sony announced 87.4 million for March 31, 2017.

We can say that the 3.2 million for the PS2 (FY2012) is too low a figure and therefore it doesn't work with Sony's official data.

**************************************************************************************

On the other hand, if we use 4.1 million as a minimum for the PS2, that gives us :

FY2012: 16.5 (PS3+PS2) / so PS3 = 12.4 if PS2 = 4.1

Without Q3 and Q4 ===> 64 + 12.4 + 3.1 = 79.5 million at September 30, 2013, knowing that Sony has announced a total of 80 million at 02/11/2013, so that leaves 500K for October which is realistic.

Let's continue :

79.5 + Q3 + Q4 + FY2014 ===> 79.5 + 3.3 + 0.7 + 3.1 = 86.6 million at March 31, 2015 (excluding FY2015 and FY2016 when it was still produced by Sony) which leaves 800K for these last two years to finish at 87.4 million.

*************************************************************************************
So back to what I said ==> the PS2 : 155.1 + 4.1 = 159.2 LTD

Which proves that ZhugeEx's analysis is closer to reality, and that makes sense.
Click to expand...
Very good analysis, could you put this in the thread linked by Welfare (as long as it's not against the rules of course)? I want to look over this later but I do think it adds to that thread. I personally put the PS2 somewhere atleast 158 upto 160 but I do believe below 160 because Sony has a knack for bragging about major thresholds so above 160 million I think would have been bragged about.

@fiendcode, exactly that's what people aren't realizing. You can't argue for PS2 as high as possible while arguing for Vita as high as possible. Sony still gave us a total figure for them all. If PS2 is this close to 160, then Vita was outsold by WiiU. The problem I have is that people are making PS2 a moving target, it inches higher and higher.
 
Last edited:
Evilms said:
Sorry but if we take a closer look, there's a problem with the 3.2 million figure for the PS2 during FY2012.

Because we know that the PS3 ended up with 87.4 million LTD as at 31/03/2017

(PS3 annual sales)
  • FY2006 : 3.6
  • FY2007 : 9.1
  • FY2008 : 10.1
  • FY2009 : 13
  • FY2010 : 14.3
  • FY2011 : 13.9
  • FY2012 : 16.5 (PS3+PS2) / so PS3 = 13.3 if PS2 = 3.2
  • FY2013 : 7.1
2013 Q1 + Q2 = 1.1 + 2 = 3.1
2013 Q3 : 3.3 (October - December 2013)
2013 Q4 : 0.7 (January - March 2014)

cgRF3ki.jpg

Without Q3 and Q4 that's 80.4 million PS3s as at 30/09/2013 whereas Sony announced a total of 80 million as at 02/11/2013, so it's ahead of schedule and that leaves nothing for October which is impossible.

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-rel...ach-80-million-units-worldwide-230771611.html
  • FY2014: 3.1
  • FY2015 : ?
  • FY2016 : ?
In addition, PS3 shipments to Europe and Australia ended in March 2016, and to North America in October 2016.
The final end of production was May 29, 2017 in Japan, so after FY2016 (March 31, 2017).

80.4 + Q3 + Q4 + FY2014 ===> 80.4 + 3.3 + 0.7 + 3.1 = 87.5 million as at March 31, 2015 (excluding FY2015 and FY2016, bearing in mind that it's impossible for it to have had 0 sales during this period since Sony was still producing it).

In addition, Sony announced 87.4 million for March 31, 2017.

We can say that the 3.2 million for the PS2 (FY2012) is too low a figure and therefore it doesn't work with Sony's official data.

**************************************************************************************

On the other hand, if we use 4.1 million as a minimum for the PS2, that gives us :

FY2012: 16.5 (PS3+PS2) / so PS3 = 12.4 if PS2 = 4.1

Without Q3 and Q4 ===> 64 + 12.4 + 3.1 = 79.5 million at September 30, 2013, knowing that Sony has announced a total of 80 million at 02/11/2013, so that leaves 500K for October which is realistic.

Let's continue :

79.5 + Q3 + Q4 + FY2014 ===> 79.5 + 3.3 + 0.7 + 3.1 = 86.6 million at March 31, 2015 (excluding FY2015 and FY2016 when it was still produced by Sony) which leaves 800K for these last two years to finish at 87.4 million.

*************************************************************************************
So back to what I said ==> the PS2 : 155.1 + 4.1 = 159.2 LTD

Which proves that ZhugeEx's analysis is closer to reality, and that makes sense.
Click to expand...

Phenom08 said:
Very good analysis, could you put this in the thread linked by Welfare (as long as it's not against the rules of course)? I want to look over this later but I do think it adds to that thread. I personally put the PS2 somewhere atleast 158 upto 160 but I do believe below 160 because Sony has a knack for bragging about major thresholds so above 160 million I think would have been bragged about.
Click to expand...
I went over that in my first post in that thread https://www.installbaseforum.com/fo...e-please-read-up-to-post-71.1365/#post-134830

Welfare said:
Sony reported PS2 shipped 155.1M as of March 2012 https://www.neogaf.com/threads/sony-q2-fy13-ps3-2-0-m.707013/
image.png


Sony reported PS3 shipped 63.9M as of March 2012 https://www.neogaf.com/threads/sony-q2-fy13-ps3-2-0-m.707013/
image.png


Sony combined PS2 and PS3 together as Computer Entertainment System and PSP + PSV as Portable Entertainment System for FY 2012 (April 2012 to March 2013) https://web.archive.org/web/2013092....co.jp/corporate/data/bizdata_hardware_e.html

image.png


PS2+PS3 shipped 16.5M for the 2012 FY https://web.archive.org/web/2013101....co.jp/corporate/data/bizdata_ces_sale_e.html

image.png


Sony announced PS3 surpassed 80M on November 2 2013 https://www.ign.com/articles/2013/11/06/ps3-sells-over-80-million-units-with-4332-games-released

Sony reported PS3 shipped 1.1M + 2.0M in Q2 + Q3 2013 https://www.neogaf.com/threads/sony-q2-fy13-ps3-2-0-m.707013/

Tally up 1.1M + 2.0M + 63.9M = 67M

PS3 cannot have passed 80M before November 2, 2013, meaning PS3's maximum shipment LTD as of September 2013 must be less than 80M.

79.9M - 67M = 12.9M as the absolute most PS3 could have shipped in FY 2012

16.5M - 12.9M = 3.6M left over for PS2

3.6M + 155.1M = 158.7M

Remember that is a minimum for PS2 as 12.9M is a maximum for PS3. Accounting for the month of October, using an average of 2.0M / 3 = 666,666 * 1.20 = 800K, that would mean 80M - 800K = 79.2M (2.0M is what PS3 shipped in Q3 2013, and the *1.2 is to account for ramp up in shipments for Q4)

79.2M - 67M = 12.2M

16.5M - 12.2M = 4.3M

4.3M + 155.1M = 159.4M a more reasonable minimum.
Click to expand...

3.2M was just the absolute bare minimum going by PS3 quarterly numbers and the final reported LTD.

159.4M is where I'd put PS2.
 
fiendcode said:
That means Vita sold just 12.49m then.
Click to expand...
AkwWldK.jpg


1/If we consider that Sony has sold all the units produced for the PSP

PS1 : 102.4
PS2 : 155 + 4.1 = 159.1
PSP : 82.5
PS3 : 87.4
PS4 : 81.2
---------------------------
Total : 512.6 ===> 525.3 - 512.6 = 12.7M for PSV as of 22/07/2018


2/If we consider that Sony has not sold all the units produced for the PSP (let's say we withdraw up to 500k, so as not to fall below the 82 million already announced in 2014)
https://www.ign.com/articles/2014/11/17/vita-sales-are-picking-up-thanks-to-ps4-remote-play

PS1 : 102.4
PS2 : 159.1
PSP : 82
PS3 : 87.4
PS4 : 81.2
---------------------------
Total : 512.1 ===> 525.3 - 512.1 = 13.2M for PSV as of 22/07/2018

The PSVITA was between 12.7 and 13.2 at this time according to this data.

How many did Sony produce between July 22, 2018 and March 1, 2019, the date on which production was ended?

I imagine it will remain a mystery, unless they decide one day to tell us.
 
Phenom08 said:
Very good analysis, could you put this in the thread linked by Welfare (as long as it's not against the rules of course)? I want to look over this later but I do think it adds to that thread. I personally put the PS2 somewhere atleast 158 upto 160 but I do believe below 160 because Sony has a knack for bragging about major thresholds so above 160 million I think would have been bragged about.

@fiendcode, exactly that's what people aren't realizing. You can't argue for PS2 as high as possible while arguing for Vita as high as possible. Sony still gave us a total figure for them all. If PS2 is this close to 160, then Vita was outsold by WiiU. The problem I have is that people are making PS2 a moving target, it inches higher and higher.
Click to expand...
https://web.archive.org/web/2017020...ntendo.co.jp/ir/en/sales/hard_soft/index.html
s7H2pIr.jpg


Wii U ended at 13.56 million LTD on December 31, 2016 (End of production January 31, 2017) :
  • If PSVita was at 12.7 on July 22, 2018 it would therefore be 0.87 short over the remaining 7 months to be ahead of Wii U, that's not much but has Sony produced almost 1 million Vita (between July 2018 and March 2019)? nobody knows.
  • Now if it were at 13.2 it would only be 0.37 over the remaining months to narrowly overtake it.
 
Evilms said:
AkwWldK.jpg


1/If we consider that Sony has sold all the units produced for the PSP

PS1 : 102.4
PS2 : 155 + 4.1 = 159.1
PSP : 82.5
PS3 : 87.4
PS4 : 81.2
---------------------------
Total : 512.6 ===> 525.3 - 512.6 = 12.7M for PSV as of 22/07/2018


2/If we consider that Sony has not sold all the units produced for the PSP (let's say we withdraw up to 500k, so as not to fall below the 82 million already announced in 2014)
https://www.ign.com/articles/2014/11/17/vita-sales-are-picking-up-thanks-to-ps4-remote-play

PS1 : 102.4
PS2 : 159.1
PSP : 82
PS3 : 87.4
PS4 : 81.2
---------------------------
Total : 512.1 ===> 525.3 - 512.1 = 13.2M for PSV as of 22/07/2018

The PSVITA was between 12.7 and 13.2 at this time according to this data.

How many did Sony produce between July 22, 2018 and March 1, 2019, the date on which production was ended?

I imagine it will remain a mystery, unless they decide one day to tell us.
Click to expand...

Why would we assume up to 523k+ PSP unsold by 2018? That's... kinda crazy, the system was selling in the single digits in Japan weekly by the end of 2014? Also Sony's figures here are rounding down PS1 (essentially handing Vita an extra 90k) plus your PS2 figure went down 100k for some reason (159.2 -> 159.1)?
Evilms said:
So back to what I said ==> the PS2 : 155.1 + 4.1 = 159.2 LTD

Which proves that ZhugeEx's analysis is closer to reality, and that makes sense.
Click to expand...
Using your numbers here plus the unrounded PS1 and PSP figures, Vita would be 12.49m.

525.30m PlayStation total
102.49m PS1
159.20m PS2
082.52m PSP
087.40m PS3 (more units should go here)
081.20m PS4

Vita hardware production ended overseas in 2015 or 2016 when it was recategorized as legacy hardware iirc. Japan/Asia ended in March 2019 alongside software production so probably not that many shipped after July 2018 given Famitsu sellthrough from July 23, 2018 until they stopped tracking at the start of 2020 was just ~90k.
 
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It's actually extremely doubtful Vita passed 13M. My PS2 estimate would put Vita at 12.3M with Evilms estimate at 12.5M, Japan was 48 or 47% of that and Japan sold only 82K after that point.

We literally have zero data nor reason to assume this near 50% market share declined and if anything, if hardware production really was halted years before 2018 overseas, this would suggest Vita sell through, therefore shipments, could not crack 13M.

I'd estimate Vita at ~12.45M LTD, being generous that outside of Asia was selling anything at that time.
 
fiendcode said:
Why would we assume up to 523k+ PSP unsold by 2018? That's... kinda crazy, the system was selling in the single digits in Japan weekly by the end of 2014? Also Sony's figures here are rounding down PS1 (essentially handing Vita an extra 90k) plus your PS2 figure went down 100k for some reason (159.2 -> 159.1)?


Vita hardware production ended overseas in 2015 or 2016 when it was recategorized as legacy hardware iirc. Japan/Asia ended in March 2019 alongside software production so probably not that many shipped after July 2018 given Famitsu sellthrough from July 23, 2018 until they stopped tracking at the start of 2020 was just ~90k.
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I used to use this from gaf

https://www.neogaf.com/threads/sony-q2-fy13-ps3-2-0-m.707013/

PS2 Unit Sales (Unit: Million)

HW Ap-Jn Jl-Sp Oc-Dc Ja-Mr FY LTD FY09 1.6 1.9 2.1 1.7 7.3 144.5 FY10 1.6 1.5 2.1 1.2 6.4 150.9 FY11 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.6 4.1 155.1 FY12 (PS2 + PS3) = 16.5 M

PlayStation 2 discontinued (January 2013)

but when I went to check on the Sony website I saw that it said just more than 155.0

after 155.1 or +155 it doesn't make much difference


I agree with you that the PSP sold very well. I thought I'd take off 500k if I ever considered that the 82.5 million produced include display models, consoles installed in kiosks in stores and trade shows, and consoles that have a production defect and are not put on sale.
So I prefer to keep the 2 probabilities.

Vita hardware production ended overseas in 2015 or 2016 when it was recategorized as legacy hardware iirc. Japan/Asia ended in March 2019 alongside software production so probably not that many shipped after July 2018 given Famitsu sellthrough from July 23, 2018 until they stopped tracking at the start of 2020 was just ~90k.
Click to expand...

To be sure. we miss this details how much they produced between July 2018 and March 2019
 
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Evilms said:
I used to use this from gaf

https://www.neogaf.com/threads/sony-q2-fy13-ps3-2-0-m.707013/

PS2 Unit Sales (Unit: Million)

HW Ap-Jn Jl-Sp Oc-Dc Ja-Mr FY LTD FY09 1.6 1.9 2.1 1.7 7.3 144.5 FY10 1.6 1.5 2.1 1.2 6.4 150.9 FY11 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.6 4.1 155.1 FY12 (PS2 + PS3) = 16.5 M

PlayStation 2 discontinued (January 2013)

but when I went to check on the Sony website I saw that it said just more than 155.0

after 155.1 or +155 it doesn't make much difference


I agree with you that the PSP sold very well. I thought I'd take off 500k if I ever considered that the 82.5 million produced include display models, consoles installed in kiosks in stores and trade shows, and consoles that have a production defect and are not put on sale.
So I prefer to keep the 2 probabilities.
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500k is unrealistic for display or test units (you could probably just shave off the 23k+ and still be safe for that) and these might not even be included in the numbered production run. Factory defects certainly wouldn't be, those would be binned after testing.

Evilms said:
To be sure. we miss this details how much they produced between July 2018 and March 2019
Click to expand...
We can't say for sure but given the data we do have, we can say it's exceedingly unlikely to be much. 200k would be generous given the Japan sales.

I think it's relatively safe to say either Vita outsold Wii U or else PS2 sold more than 159m. But both really cannot be simultaneously true given the numbers we have.
 
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Welfare said:
I'd estimate Vita at ~12.45M LTD, being generous that outside of Asia was selling anything at that time.
Click to expand...

I've got Vita as ~12.28m for:

Shipments to March 2015
Japan sales LTD (Media Create)
Major European countries 2016 (CESA
(I note people saying Vita Shipments stopped in EU/NA 2015 but we have the numbers for these from CESA, also I remember there being a Phineas and Ferb bundle in November 2015, so they didn't stop before that)
USA + Canada 2016 (NPD)
In this post:

Kresnik said:
10.1m to March 2015 for Vita.

2,172,646 Vita sales in Japan Q2 2015 to end of tracking.

Some of the 10.1 will include shipped units so assuming about 2m in Japan after the March 2015 figure.

So about 12.1m for WW to March 2015 and LTD Japan.

Figures from the table posted earlier - 110k from major European countries I'm 2016, 70k NA.

So maybe 12.28m all factored in.

Needs another 1.3m for all the data that's missing in order to have sold more than WiiU. Q2-Q4 2015 data from anywhere except Japan, 2017 onwards for anywhere except Japan.

(Europe 2015 will be a proportion of 190k, NA 2015 will be a proportion of 310k. We know that it sold 2k in Taiwan in 2018 fwiw).

Honestly, it seems like it'd be pretty damn close. At least we have a new 'official' figure of 10.1m now and a good estimate of more than that (12.28m with some big gaps in the data)
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Throw in the 2k Taiwan 2018 to get 12.3m.

We know that 2015 Europe (after March) will be some proportion of 190k and 2015 NA will be some proportion of 310k (impossible to estimate how much but I'd imagine both will be >=50%).

Taking it at 40% (console was very much slowing down) and rounding down gives us about 70k and 120k.

So 12.49m but that last 0.19m is actual speculation.

But even not counting that, we'd be saying <0.15m for every other data point we're missing (Asia Q2 2015 to close minus Taiwan 2018 for example).

So I can't reconcile your 12.45m with the other data we've had access to.

But I will say I've probably gone from thinking Vita beat WiiU to being pretty skeptical that it actually did.

I'd guess we're looking at 13m as a cap rather than a floor.
 
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