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This thread is for predictions of U.S. Hardware sales as reported by Circana (or estimations thereof where no public data is available) for the entire 2025 retail year (January 5, 2025 - January 3, 2026).
What is Circana?: Circana is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the Circana hardware sales will be for the most recent month. Circana months are defined by the National Retail Federation (find calendar links here).
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales followers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations. (Only used for Hardware Units)
Why are there still predictions when official Circana numbers are not released?: Despite not receiving numbers from Circana directly since 2010, we have always found ways of obtaining them, whether through official company PR or leaks. These threads are also a place for the community to discuss the upcoming releases and current state of the US market as well as potential impacts in the future. In the end, it's for fun!
Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EST on Thursday, February 20. (Day before the January 2025 NPD release) Format use is absolutely required.
Do not use decimal points or "m"/"million" in your predictions. If you predict over 1 million for a system, you can use 1000K or more to get to your prediction. Be careful to use the appropriate number of place values so you don't over or understate your predictions by a factor of 10. People who have such outliers will be disqualified.
You will also be predicting the revenue ranking winner, which will be denoted by the 1., 2., or 3. placements.
Format to use for predictions
1. [NSW]
2. [PS5]
3. [XBS]
4. [NS2]
Good
1. [NS2] 4500K
2. [PS5] 4500000
3. [XBS] 4,500,000
Bad
[XBS] 4.500.000
[XBS] 4.5 million
[XBS] 4.5m
[XBS] - 4.5 m
XBS - 4 million
2024 Results
Officially undetermined as of now, but a decent maximum for all three consoles.
1. [PS5] <6.0M
2. [NSW] <3.2M
3. [XBS] <2.8M
2023 Results
Officially undetermined as of now, but a decent maximum for all three consoles.
1. [PS5] <6.8M
2. [NSW] <4.8M
3. [XBS] <3.8M
2022 Results
1. [PS5] 5660K
2. [NSW] 5820K
3. [XBS] 4480K
2021 Results
2020 Results
2019 Results
Potentially significant sales-related events for 2025
(No guarantee these'll all happen. Also, this list is not meant to be comprehensive.)
[NS2] release window, pricing, 3D Mario, Pokemon Gen 10, GTA VI (?)
[NSW] Price drops
[PS5] Price drops, GTA VI
[XSX] Price drops, GTA VI
NPD Prediction Thread Archive
What is Circana?: Circana is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the Circana hardware sales will be for the most recent month. Circana months are defined by the National Retail Federation (find calendar links here).
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales followers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations. (Only used for Hardware Units)
Why are there still predictions when official Circana numbers are not released?: Despite not receiving numbers from Circana directly since 2010, we have always found ways of obtaining them, whether through official company PR or leaks. These threads are also a place for the community to discuss the upcoming releases and current state of the US market as well as potential impacts in the future. In the end, it's for fun!
Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EST on Thursday, February 20. (Day before the January 2025 NPD release) Format use is absolutely required.
Do not use decimal points or "m"/"million" in your predictions. If you predict over 1 million for a system, you can use 1000K or more to get to your prediction. Be careful to use the appropriate number of place values so you don't over or understate your predictions by a factor of 10. People who have such outliers will be disqualified.
You will also be predicting the revenue ranking winner, which will be denoted by the 1., 2., or 3. placements.
Format to use for predictions
1. [NSW]
2. [PS5]
3. [XBS]
4. [NS2]
Good
1. [NS2] 4500K
2. [PS5] 4500000
3. [XBS] 4,500,000
Bad
[XBS] 4.500.000
[XBS] 4.5 million
[XBS] 4.5m
[XBS] - 4.5 m
XBS - 4 million
2024 Results
Officially undetermined as of now, but a decent maximum for all three consoles.
1. [PS5] <6.0M
2. [NSW] <3.2M
3. [XBS] <2.8M
2023 Results
Officially undetermined as of now, but a decent maximum for all three consoles.
1. [PS5] <6.8M
2. [NSW] <4.8M
3. [XBS] <3.8M
2022 Results
1. [PS5] 5660K
2. [NSW] 5820K
3. [XBS] 4480K
2021 Results
2020 Results
2019 Results
Potentially significant sales-related events for 2025
(No guarantee these'll all happen. Also, this list is not meant to be comprehensive.)
[NS2] release window, pricing, 3D Mario, Pokemon Gen 10, GTA VI (?)
[NSW] Price drops
[PS5] Price drops, GTA VI
[XSX] Price drops, GTA VI
NPD Prediction Thread Archive
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