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2024 STEAM Concurrent Players(CCU) Official Watch Thread

Where will Black Myth Wukong's land in terms of launch CCU numbers?

  • Total voters
    31
  • Poll closed .
Reader mode
Joseki said:
I was looking at the CCU of the Metaphor demo and I was surprised by 2 things:
Peak CCU is around 14:00 UTC.
It peaked within 24h of launch on thursday, not on the weekend.

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but I would imagine the time of the peak CCU indicate a majority of the players coming from asia. I also suspect the peak being on D1 and not on the weekend means the demo was mostly tried by an already engaged audience.
Click to expand...
FFXVI, Visions of Mana, and Romancing Saga 2's demos all appear to have played out like this (Peaked on day 1 irrespective of when it launched) I dunno, maybe demos (or just JRPG demos? I'm not really sure what to compare it to) just play out like this.

And the Asia thing makes sense, no? There's not exactly a huge amount of Playstations in China - where else are they going to play that?
 
I don’t even know what I think would be “good” for Starfield. 50k?

I don’t expect it to look great on the sales chart because so many people already bought this thing back at launch.
 
reksveks said:
Cheers, I am looking at MSFS which is obviously very far out of the top 20 re wishlist although the page is very recent iirc.
Click to expand...

You had to pick pick a title not even within the Top 500, I can't really give any insights 😅
That's just too far down the totem pole and also too new for any trajectory analysis compared to, let say, MSFS 2020.

Joseki said:
I was looking at the CCU of the Metaphor demo and I was surprised by 2 things:
Peak CCU is around 14:00 UTC.
It peaked within 24h of launch on thursday, not on the weekend.

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but I would imagine the time of the peak CCU indicate a majority of the players coming from asia. I also suspect the peak being on D1 and not on the weekend means the demo was mostly tried by an already engaged audience.
Click to expand...

@Bold, that's the JRPG crowd for you. There's nothing atypical on how the Metaphor Demo performed in terms of CCU. Almost all of them that I can remember peak on Day 1.

As for JRPG releases in general, like 98%+ of them peak in Asia.
The two biggest timezones for JRPGs are Asia and NA.
Actually one of the few rare genres where NA punches above its weight compared to the more PC centric EU.


master94ga said:
Today we have the release of Starfield first expansion, I'm very curios both about the game that the increase in CCU.
Click to expand...

Anno said:
I don’t even know what I think would be “good” for Starfield. 50k?

I don’t expect it to look great on the sales chart because so many people already bought this thing back at launch.
Click to expand...

We could get ballpark idea by looking at Fallout 4's trajectory.

Peak CCU of 472,962 at launch in November 2015.
First major DLC(Far Harbor) released on Thursday May 19 2016 and peaked at on Sunday May 22 at 74,234.

Considering the lower ceiling for Starfield on Steam and the fact that the reception for the game is worse than Fallout 4's... I don't expect much. This also comes out on a Monday rather than the usual Thursday, which generally hampers a higher weekend peak.

50K would probably be quite good in that respect, don't even know if it'll get there tbh.
 
Evilnemesis8 said:
You had to pick pick a title not even within the Top 500, I can't really give any insights 😅
That's just too far down the totem pole and also too new for any trajectory analysis compared to, let say, MSFS 2020.



@Bold, that's the JRPG crowd for you. There's nothing atypical on how the Metaphor Demo performed in terms of CCU. Almost all of them that I can remember peak on Day 1.

As for JRPG releases in general, like 98%+ of them peak in Asia.
The two biggest timezones for JRPGs are Asia and NA.
Actually one of the few rare genres where NA punches above its weight compared to the more PC centric EU.






We could get ballpark idea by looking at Fallout 4's trajectory.

Peak CCU of 472,962 at launch in November 2015.
First major DLC(Far Harbor) released on Thursday May 19 2016 and peaked at on Sunday May 22 at 74,234.

Considering the lower ceiling for Starfield on Steam and the fact that the reception for the game is worse than Fallout 4's... I don't expect much. This also comes out on a Monday rather than the usual Thursday, which generally hampers a higher weekend peak.

50K would probably be quite good in that respect, don't even know if it'll get there tbh.
Click to expand...
FFXVI and Persona 3 Reload have more reviews in english that in Chinese, didnt both peak in NA timezone?
 
Damage2 said:
FFXVI and Persona 3 Reload have more reviews in english that in Chinese, didnt both peak in NA timezone?
Click to expand...

FFXVI launch peak and current daily peak is at the usual UTC 14~ Asia peak.

I do believe that Persona 3 Reload's launch peak was NA by like 100-200~ or so.
I seem recall them trading blows the whole weekend. But yes, that's one of the titles I had in my mind when I said 98% of JRPGs peak during Asia time.

English reviews dominate for most titles on Steam, even for titles which peak in Asia.
That's just because there's English speaking countries across the globe and English as the language being used for people's Steam account for many people being fluent in English but still not their first tongue.

Outliers like Persona 5 Royal and Granblue Fantasy: Relink are just outliers where China shows up in a big way.

-----

Slight tangent here... But my first language is French but I had parents who both spoke English at a very high level(with one being bilingual) so I picked up a few things as a young child.
Then I was bathed in the fire of Vocab/Grammar Hell back during the Diablo 2 days when I was like 9-10 years old.

You can be sure that being corrected with an * each time I misused Than/Then and Your/You're by an annoying English NA kid pushed me to learn quickly because I wasn't going to take that disrespect, no sir!

Thanks for the duel, and ez gg no re though :ROFLMAO:
Those were the days...
 
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Evilnemesis8 said:
Slight tangent here... But my first language is French but I had parents who both spoke English at a very high level(with one being bilingual) so I picked up a few things as a young child.
Then I was bathed in the fire of Vocab/Grammar Hell back during the Diablo 2 days when I was like 9-10 years old.

You can be sure that being corrected with an * each time I misused Than/Then and Your/You're by an annoying English NA kid pushed me to learn quickly because I wasn't going to take that disrespect, no sir!

Thanks for the duel, and ez gg no re though :ROFLMAO:
Those were the days...
Click to expand...

That's funny because I see native speakers mess that(and it's/its) up more than non-native people lol.

Edit: And don't get me started on could of/should of/would of
 
Guarabyra said:
That's funny because I see native speakers mess that(and it's/its) up more than non-native people lol.

Edit: And don't get me started on could of/should of/would of
Click to expand...

Of course, but there's a reason for that. We were out there getting bullied as kids 😭

allan-bh said:
I'm curious to see the peak for Starfield tonight.
Click to expand...

I mean, we're pretty much right there, last few updates are even going down.
The game daily peak is around 19:30~
That low of a number is in line with the general vibe when it comes to Bethesda/Starfield.

Currently...
Starfield(with its first major Expansion release including lots of new features/bug fixes) - 21,689
Skyrim Special Edition - 23,283
Fallout 4 - 15,838
 
orith34 said:
November also has Football Manager, which could reach 100k CCU (last ones are 80-90K), specially if it doesn't release on Gamepass day 1 (hope it doesn't happen tho ^^)

And Path Of Exile 2 which i hope it does massive numbers, i could see it reaching 400-500k users with some advertising, or more.
Click to expand...
The new FM is switching engines to Unity and Sega are hyping it as the biggest evolution in the series for a decade+.
However it looks to be coming in very hot. Half of the announcements so far seem to be about missing features in this version, and with less than 2 months to go there's no in-match screenshots that I've seen.
Launch CCU will probably be good but I can see this having poor legs if it's indeed not ready.
 
Realm of Ink new CCU record - 5,234


Starfield daily CCU peak(Day 1 of new Expansion) - 21,792
Steam rating of 50% with 224 reviews.

BGS is cooked lads.


-----


Damage2 said:
What do we think Persona 5 Royal ended up selling on Steam? The game have more that 81k reviews after two years.
Click to expand...

Conservative estimates would probably something along the lines of 1.25M~ copies.
But also, I think saying "ended up selling" is a bit premature.
This game is not done selling, it has proven to be quite a leggy product at discount prices.
We haven't even seen the real deep discounts of 70/75/80 percent discounts either.

I'm sure this game will continue to sale for years to come. Maybe SEGA will grace us with some new numbers at some later date again for individual games and stop bundling stuff up to obfuscate numbers.

Damage2 said:
Just to have an idea of what Metaphor can reach
Click to expand...

That's an impossible question to answer really.

WoM
Reviews
Possible Demo Fixes

These 3 big pillars plus some little other factors could make the sales trajectory of this title be completely different, I don't have a magic ball, but my estimations probably went up a bit(like 3k-5k~) from the 25-35k estimates I said around last week based on the CCU peak for the demo.
That's a lot of players willing to check things out for a new game not related to an IP.
 
Evilnemesis8 said:
Realm of Ink new CCU record - 5,234


Starfield daily CCU peak(Day 1 of new Expansion) - 21,792
Steam rating of 50% with 224 reviews.

BGS is cooked lads.


-----




Conservative estimates would probably something along the lines of 1.25M~ copies.
But also, I think saying "ended up selling" is a bit premature.
This game is not done selling, it has proven to be quite a leggy product at discount prices.
We haven't even seen the real deep discounts of 70/75/80 percent discounts either.

I'm sure this game will continue to sale for years to come. Maybe SEGA will grace us with some new numbers at some later date again for individual games and stop bundling stuff up to obfuscate numbers.



That's an impossible question to answer really.

WoM
Reviews
Possible Demo Fixes

These 3 big pillars plus some little other factors could make the sales trajectory of this title be completely different, I don't have a magic ball, but my estimations probably went up a bit(like 3k-5k~) from the 25-35k estimates I said around last week based on the CCU peak for the demo.
That's a lot of players willing to check things out for a new game not related to an IP.
Click to expand...
Yeah, i know.

"Ended up selling" is just my english being terrible :X

The game have great legs for a JRPG, it will end up being a 10M seller like FFXV in a few years and when they announce Persona 6 It will receive another boost.

I would love to see Metaphor reaching Granblue numbers, but it looks like its not possible, even if its a 93-95 on Metacritic.
 
I forgot demos have reviews now. To be honest, for as much as I’ve heard about how bad the Metaphor demo’s performance is the review score isn’t so bad. Might just be one of those games people power through because they like it enough (hopefully SEGA just gets it fixed)
 
Weekly Global Top Sellers for the week of September 24th to October 1st

  1. EA Sports FC 25
  2. Counter-Strike 2
  3. Throne and Liberty
  4. Steam Deck
  5. Monster Hunter Wilds(Preorders)
  6. Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2
  7. Once Human
  8. Crusader Kings III(Discount + new DLC)
  9. Black Myth: Wukong
  10. DRAGON BALL: Sparking! ZERO
  11. Cyberpunk 2077
  12. PUBG
  13. The Forever Winter
  14. The Tiny Glade
  15. TCG Card Shop Simulator
  16. DotA 2
  17. Crusader Kings III: The Road of Power(DLC)
  18. Apex Legends
  19. Naraka: Bladepoint
  20. Witchfire

-----

DRAGON BALL: Sparking! ZERO

Global Top Sellers Placements:

August 20th to 27th - #87
August 27th to Sept 3rd - #85
Sept 3rd to Sept 10th - #54
Sept 10th to Sept 17th - #34
Sept 17th to Sept 24th - #18

Sept 24th to Oct 1st - #10

Again, all signs point to DB: Sparking! Zero being a very big hit.
The game is currently #3 on the global top sellers list and was around #5-8 in the two-ish days.

Last Saturday things looked like this:

Australia - #12
Brazil - #11
Canada - #10
China - #99
France - #7
Germany - #13
Italy - #3
Japan - #12
South Korea - #100
Netherlands - #12
Spain - #3
Switzerland - #18
Thailand - #4
UK - #10
US - #5

Now:

Australia - #3(+9)
Brazil - 3(+8)
Canada - 6(+4)
China - #52(+47)
France - #3(+4)
Germany - #5(+8)
Italy - #2(+1)
Japan - #3(+9)
South Korea - #20(+80)
Netherlands - #4(+9)
Spain - #4(-1)
Switzerland - #12(+6)
Thailand - #2(+2)
UK - #7(+3)
US - #2(+3) (Only behind the Steam Deck)

Pretty good growth all around, I'm sure that now the game is in more markets considering we're getting closer to release, but I wanted to keep my original crop of games. I will probably do a full rundown of all markets as we get closer to release, probably the day before the early access starts.
Reminder that there is an early access for this game starting 3 days starting October 8, 2024, at 00:00 CEST.

In markets where the game is #2-#3~ that's usually because of EA FC 25 and Throne and Liberty and/or Counter-Strike 2.

There's a few markets where this is not the case.
Japan has the Sword Art Online Daydream game as #1 and Monster Hunter Wilds pre-orders still at #2.
Thailand also has Sword Art Online Daydream as #1. The IP must be popular over there?

Anno said:
I forgot demos have reviews now. To be honest, for as much as I’ve heard about how bad the Metaphor demo’s performance is the review score isn’t so bad. Might just be one of those games people power through because they like it enough (hopefully SEGA just gets it fixed)
Click to expand...

Performance issues is kind of whatever for a JRPG that's turn based, it's not that big of a deal.
Plus it's not that it runs absolutely horribly for everyone, just that it should run much better considering what we're seeing on the screen.
 
It didn't take long, we have a 100k+ CCU game for October.
Throne and Liberty just unlocked outside of the paid early access an about an hour ago is currently at 277,786 CCU.

Edit: Not that were was any surprise, it had already hit 50k+ when people had to pay.
 
A "Steam Native" update for Grounded removes Microsoft account requirements. Still remains a requirement for cross-play. Interesting (and cool!) to see, especially since it's an active service game and very positively reviewed (90%) so they're not doing it under duress.
 
Throne and Liberty Day 1 CCU record(official release date) - 326,377
That puts the game at #33 all time on Steam.

I'll be removing Dread Dawn from my list. People feel hoodwinked about what they're getting with the game and it is currently at 39% Steam rating with 353 reviews. During the early hours, it was in the 20-25 percent range.
The game peaked at 1,526 at 5~ UTC, so you know people just kept away as they saw things unfold.
Looks like Project Zomboid will remain the only sandbox survival zombie game of note on the market.
 
Destiny 2 Overall: 9/30-10/01 367.83k

Wow first Destiny 2 player count with a 3 handle I can remember! Trends continue to not look great. maybe people will not really notice new content until mid 2025 with the proposed expansion. at it's healthy times d2 was at 800-1m in off peak and ~1.5 at expansions.

i'm sure bungie ongoing costs are greatly reduced with the layoffs and transfers, the question is how low the player count can go and still support the new baseline. what kind of revenue are they getting? The game has a culture of being against mtx, maybe they are selling the $20 ad hoc dungeon pack with a new dungeon launching on oct 11 (included with the deluxe $100 TFS pack, or whatever, so, limited buyers perhaps)? Overall I cant think of much revenue, The Final Shape isn't selling much. New players are likely few. and still a long up to 9 months til the next major content.

it goes from bad to worse at sony live service.
 
Steam Hardware Survey - September 2024

OS
  • Windows 10 64 bit - 48.66% (+1.57%)
  • Windows 11 64 bit - 47.69% (-1.48%)

  • Win10 reclaims the throne. only one reason for that...

  • "SteamOS Holo" 64 bit - 39.20% (-1.28%)
  • "Arch Linux" 64 bit - 8.66% (+0.44%)
  • Freedesktop SDK 23.08 (Flatpak runtime) 64 bit - 6.03% (-0.20%)
  • Ubuntu 24.04.1 LTS 64 bit - 4.03% (+4.03%)
  • Linux Mint 22 64 bit - 3.73% (+0.75%)
  • Ubuntu Core 22 64 bit - 3.30% (+0.33%)
  • "Manjaro Linux" 64 bit - 3.04% (+0.09%)
  • Linux Mint 21.3 64 bit - 2.72% (-0.87%)
  • Other - 29.27% (+6.69%)

CPU
  • Intel - 67.38% (+0.69%)
  • AMD - 32.57% (-0.69%)

GPU
  • NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4060 - 4.58% (+1.17%)
  • NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4060 Ti - 3.66% (+0.76%)
  • NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4070 - 2.91% (+0.39%)
  • NVIDIA GeForce RTX 3060 - 5.86% (+0.35%)
  • NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4070 SUPER - 1.47% (+0.35%)
  • NVIDIA GeForce RTX T10-8 - 0.21% (+0.21%)
  • NVIDIA GeForce RTX 3070 - 3.31% (+0.16%)
  • AMD Radeon 780M Graphics - 0.16% (+0.16%)
  • NVIDIA GeForce RTX 2060 - 3.30% (+0.16%)
  • NVIDIA GeForce RTX 3060 Ti - 3.57% (+0.14%)

  • NVIDIA GeForce RTX 3050 - 2.69% (-0.11%)
  • NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4070 Ti - 1.18% (-0.11%)
  • NVIDIA GeForce GTX 1060 - 2.81% (-0.12%)
  • NVIDIA GeForce GTX 1050 Ti - 1.98% (-0.16%)
  • NVIDIA GeForce GTX 1660 Ti - 1.39% (-0.16%)
  • NVIDIA GeForce RTX 4060 Laptop GPU - 4.37% (-0.18%)
  • NVIDIA GeForce GTX 1660 SUPER - 1.94% (-0.22%)
  • NVIDIA GeForce GTX 1650 - 3.64% (-0.27%)
  • NVIDIA GeForce RTX 3060 Laptop GPU - 3.00% (-0.50%)
  • Other - 8.85% (-0.39%)

  • the 2060, 3060 (and ti), and 3070 going up would be unusual since they're not being made anymore, but they tend to correlate with China. same with the 4060, but that's a common gpu everywhere
  • the 780M is the only new gpu and the first new AMD gpu in a long-ass time
    • it's actually RDNA3, making it the second in the family to chart since they released in 2022

Languages
  • Simplified Chinese - 36.57% (+1.54%)
    English - 30.91% (-0.26%)
  • Russian - 8.32% (-0.17%)
  • Japanese - 2.19% (-0.45%)
  • Korean - 1.44% (-0.24%)

  • everything else grew or shrunk by less than 0.1 percentage points
  • china having the single largest growth again, and almost in lockstep with Windows 10
    • would also correlate with select gpu growth

 
Person said:
Lego Horizon Adventures preorders are now live, if you want to track its performance up to launch day.
Click to expand...
Will be interesting to see how this performs. The price is kinda high for the type of game to reach high numbers IMHO.

For now, it's not doing so hot:

lpbQg0I.png


I just find out about the pre-orders going live thanks to you.

The latest Lego Star Wars game managed these numbers:

jFQP4C2.png


Also, I think that you put one extra / on that link causing it to break.
 
I've removed Wizard of Legend 2 from the list, 50%~ Steam rating and only a peak CCU of 1,942 yesterday.
Both my indie picks severely under performed due to various reasons, unlucky.

But fear not! It's getting replaced by...
SWORD ART ONLINE Fractured Daydream it unlocked from Early Access late last night(EST time) and peaked at 11,509 today. The game has a 83% Steam rating with 606 reviews.

Until Dawn released about 2 hours ago is currently at 1,668.


-----

Also, I've not forgotten about the upcoming releases.

First, I will be doing a roundup of positions for DB: Sparking ZERO! daily starting from today.
The reason being we're 3 days away from the Early Access release date October 7th at 3PM PT/6 PM EST/00 CEST.
Considering the unlock time, I'll be doing that at 5PM EST.

I'll also be doing one for Silent Hill 2 later today(10PM~ EST) due to the early access unlocking in 1 day and 10 hours. Coincidentally, that gives the opportunity for the whole globe to see today's reviews of the game, so it's a perfect fit.

-----

Also, we should be seeing a new peak for TCG Card Shop Simulator as the daily peak keep increasing this week and today the game peaked at 38,639. That is very close to the all time peak set up last Sunday at 39,574.
 
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The impact of Starfield's expansion was poor. The game had a good amount of players on launch but legs were bad. Creation Kit and first DLC didn't changed it's fortune so that's it, no hope left.

The final move for Bethesda is the PS5 port to make some money and move on, Starfield project failed.
 
Last edited:
Dragon Ball: Sparking! ZERO global placements 3 days from Early Access
Done at 5:30~ PM EST

Global - #2

Australia - #2
Austria - #5
Belgium - #4
Brazil - #4
Canada - #3(#2 is Steam Deck)
China - #34
Czechia - #53
Denmark - #10
Finland - #9
France - #4
Germany - #7
Hong Kong - #13
Italy - #3
Japan - #4
South Korea - #18
Netherlands - #4
New Zealand - #5
Norway - #7
Poland - #14
Russia - #64
Singapore - #6
Spain - #3
Sweden - #19
Switzerland - #6
Taiwan - #6
Thailand - #4
Turkey - #11
UK - #5
US - #2(behind Counter-Strike 2)


As we can see, the game is continuing to climb. Although it's still not getting #1.
On that note, Counter-Strike 2 just received a huge cosmetics update on the 2nd, so much so that it got its own page on Steam:
store.steampowered.com

The Armory

Access to over a 100 new items including the all-new Weapon Charms.
store.steampowered.com store.steampowered.com

It's probably not that unlikely that DB would've gotten #1 currently had it not been for that.
Still, I'm sure the game will manage to get it as we get closer and closer to the EA release time(and further from CS2's newest update).

------

Person said:
First day peak of 2,572. Is that good for its wishlist/follower numbers?
Click to expand...

Looks a bit soft to me, the PSN/technical issues for the game is to blame, of course.
I don't imagine that the game will grow much during the weekend.

On that note, here's the page for SuperMassive Games' titles(they made the OG PS4 Until Dawn):
It's not too far away from those number. Tbh, I don't think this project was ever a good idea in terms of profitability.
 
How high do we think Silent Hill 2’s CCU peak will get? I feel like ~50k would be a pretty good performance. Not sure how much the game’s lack of availability in China will affect it though.
 
Silent Hill 2 global placements 24/48(?) hours~ before Early Access release(23:05 EST)
Kinda hard, no release release time revealed by Konami just yet.

Global - #7

Australia - #10
Austria - #9
Belgium - #35
Brazil - #21
China - N/A(Konami has region locked their games)
Canada - #6
Czechia - #10
Denmark - #17
Finland - #7
France - #17
Germany - #19
Hong Kong - #4
Italy - #7
Japan - #7(The Top 7(besides the two GaaS titles)over there is filled with them Japanese IPs, looky here)
South Korea - #33
Netherlands - #13
New Zealand - #14
Norway - #15
Poland - #15
Russia - N/A
Singapore - #14
Spain - #11
Sweden - #12
Switzerland - #9
Taiwan - #21
Thailand - #6
Turkey - #7
UK - #7
US - #5

Edit: Some errors fixed.
 
Evilnemesis8 said:
Silent Hill 2 global placements 24/48(?) hours~ before Early Access release(23:05 EST)
Kinda hard, no release release time revealed by Konami just yet.

Global - #7

Australia - #10
Austria - #9
Belgium - #35
Brazil - #21
China - N/A(Konami has region locked their games)
Canada - #6
Czechia - #10
Denmark - #17
Finland - #7
France - #17
Germany - #19
Hong Kong - #4
Italy - #7
Japan - #7(The Top 7(besides the two GaaS titles)over there is filled with them Japanese IPs, looky here)
South Korea - #33
Netherlands - #13
New Zealand - #14
Norway - #15
Poland - #15
Russia - N/A
Singapore - #14
Spain - #11
Sweden - #12
Switzerland - #9
Taiwan - #21
Thailand - #6
Turkey - #7
UK - #7
US - #5

Edit: Some errors fixed.
Click to expand...
What do you think? 50k peak at least?
 
allan-bh said:
The impact of Starfield's expansion was poor. The game had a good amount of players on launch but legs were bad. Creation Kit and first DLC didn't changed it's fortune so that's it, no hope left.

The final move for Bethesda is the PS5 port to make some money and move on, Starfield project failed.
Click to expand...
It sold quite well and has been always in very good position of the top played game pass games, I don't think it is considered a flop, not at all.
 
allan-bh said:
The impact of Starfield's expansion was poor. The game had a good amount of players on launch but legs were bad. Creation Kit and first DLC didn't changed it's fortune so that's it, no hope left.

The final move for Bethesda is the PS5 port to make some money and move on, Starfield project failed.
Click to expand...
Starfield is heavily skewed towards consoles (and I would not be surprised if on PC game pass app it also has a sizeable community). The main issue is that Starfield is suffering from a constant negative WoM because it is a game that is cool to hate now.
 
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