Media Create Prediction League : July 2022 [RESULTS !]
- Thread starter Lelouch0612
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- Predictions
You’re telling me the first month I forget about is Xenoblade’s release month?!
Time to change that Last Hope into No Hope for U lol.
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Ok now I was bamboozled by the fact that MH Rise + Sunbreak Set was stealthily out of stock on Amazon (post-launch orders would only ship from July 20 onwards) 
Gotta check everything...
Gotta check everything...
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Install Base median predictions
Here are the median predictions for July (min <> max):
[NSW] Live A Live (3 days) - 68.938 (42.000 <> 100.000)
[NSW+PS4] Digimon Survive (4 days) - 45.617 (27.000 <> 74.000)
[NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (3 days) - 149.888 (95.000 <> 250.000)
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (28 days) - 75.500 (29.999 <> 270.000)
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 252.055 (213.500 <> 311.000)
The most bull-ish predictor of the month is @YuriCastro, expecting no less than 833.030 units sold across all predictions.
The most bear-ish predictor of the month is @kamaitachi, expecting only 526.000 units sold across all predictions.
@mjw's predictions are closest to the median (in terms of %).
@YuriCastro's predictions are farthest away from the median.
[NSW] Live A Live (3 days) - 68.938 (42.000 <> 100.000)
[NSW+PS4] Digimon Survive (4 days) - 45.617 (27.000 <> 74.000)
[NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (3 days) - 149.888 (95.000 <> 250.000)
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (28 days) - 75.500 (29.999 <> 270.000)
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 252.055 (213.500 <> 311.000)
The most bull-ish predictor of the month is @YuriCastro, expecting no less than 833.030 units sold across all predictions.
The most bear-ish predictor of the month is @kamaitachi, expecting only 526.000 units sold across all predictions.
@mjw's predictions are closest to the median (in terms of %).
@YuriCastro's predictions are farthest away from the median.
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For now
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (14 days) - 73.077
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (2 weeks) - 127.920
MHR+Sunbreak is doing much better than expected.
If NSW hardware stays stable, the median should be right on point.
If NSW hardware stays stable, the median should be right on point.
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For now:
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (21 days) - 95.948
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (3 weeks) - 197.294
[NSW] Live A Live (3 days) - 71.137
Welp. Live A Live slay me for good
And then Rise /Sunbreak bury me for good
And then Rise /Sunbreak bury me for good
Am I missing something or is there a mistake with the number of days for Live-A-Live? It already released and there is still a week left, so it should be 10 days and not 3, or not?
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Famitsu numbers only are the ones tracked during the first three days
Ah, thanks!
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- #68
August predictions are now open !
www.installbaseforum.com
Media Create Prediction League : August 2022 [CLOSED]
Hello everyone ! While we are still waiting on the final results of June, it is already time to open the July edition of the Prediction League ! We are aiming to host this prediction contest every month, when the release schedule allows it. The rules are simple, you can make and edit your...
www.installbaseforum.com
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See, it opened higher than Survive
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- #70
You were spot onSee, it opened higher than Survive
The Results
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- #71
Live A Live
The Install Base consensus was very close on this, less than 2.500 units off the mark. The numbers of data points we got regarding Asano games in recent memory probably helped to fine tune the expectations.
Congrats to @MysticGon with their excellent 72.000 prediction, closely followed by @YuriCastro at #2 and @mjw / @Yeshua both tied at #3. All of them were below 2% of error margin ! (+ @PillFencer at #5).
Digimon Survive
The Install Base consensus was a fair bit too high on this, arounf 9.500 units off the mark. The game's performance on PS4 was probably softer than expected, given the recent history of the franchise in the ecosystem.
Congrats to @Multiverse and @Nocturnal both tied at #1 with their 35.000 prediction, they were closely followed by @VengefulMagus at #3. All of them were below 5% of error margin !
Xenoblade Chronicles 3
The Install Base consensus was too high for Xenoblade, more than 35.000 units off the mark. The good preorders trend on Comg couple with the very unusual conditions surrounding the release (no CE tracked, digital being so attractive) misled people. It is also possible that the retail launch was even below Nintendo/retailers expectations given the sell-through and what we mentionned.
Congrats to @brutaka3 with their excellent 110.000 prediction, closely followed by @MysticGon at #2 and @Chris1964 a bit farther away at #3. All of them were below 10% of error margin ! (with the first two under 5%).
Monster Hunter Sunbreak Set (2nd month)
The Install Base consensus was too low for Sunbreak, more than 35.000 units off the mark. The underwhelming launch at retail last month didn't give much confidence about the game's second month. However the legs were excellent and it already doubled its launch sales.
Congrats to @Abzeronow with their excellent 110.000 prediction, followed by @Rellik at #2 and @Kenka at #3. All of them were below 10% of error margin ! (with the first two under 5%).
Nintendo Switch Hardware monthly sales
The Install Base consensus was a bit too conservative for the Switch, around 20.000 units off the mark. The good health of the platform coupled with a strong new release allowed it to reach high levels of sales, even in its 6th Summer.
Congrats to @mjw and @Malden with their excellent 270.000 prediction, merely 1 unit away there is @Ystad who rounds up the podium. The error margin on this one was 0,2% (!) for all of them.
The Install Base consensus was very close on this, less than 2.500 units off the mark. The numbers of data points we got regarding Asano games in recent memory probably helped to fine tune the expectations.
Congrats to @MysticGon with their excellent 72.000 prediction, closely followed by @YuriCastro at #2 and @mjw / @Yeshua both tied at #3. All of them were below 2% of error margin ! (+ @PillFencer at #5).
Digimon Survive
The Install Base consensus was a fair bit too high on this, arounf 9.500 units off the mark. The game's performance on PS4 was probably softer than expected, given the recent history of the franchise in the ecosystem.
Congrats to @Multiverse and @Nocturnal both tied at #1 with their 35.000 prediction, they were closely followed by @VengefulMagus at #3. All of them were below 5% of error margin !
Xenoblade Chronicles 3
The Install Base consensus was too high for Xenoblade, more than 35.000 units off the mark. The good preorders trend on Comg couple with the very unusual conditions surrounding the release (no CE tracked, digital being so attractive) misled people. It is also possible that the retail launch was even below Nintendo/retailers expectations given the sell-through and what we mentionned.
Congrats to @brutaka3 with their excellent 110.000 prediction, closely followed by @MysticGon at #2 and @Chris1964 a bit farther away at #3. All of them were below 10% of error margin ! (with the first two under 5%).
Monster Hunter Sunbreak Set (2nd month)
The Install Base consensus was too low for Sunbreak, more than 35.000 units off the mark. The underwhelming launch at retail last month didn't give much confidence about the game's second month. However the legs were excellent and it already doubled its launch sales.
Congrats to @Abzeronow with their excellent 110.000 prediction, followed by @Rellik at #2 and @Kenka at #3. All of them were below 10% of error margin ! (with the first two under 5%).
Nintendo Switch Hardware monthly sales
The Install Base consensus was a bit too conservative for the Switch, around 20.000 units off the mark. The good health of the platform coupled with a strong new release allowed it to reach high levels of sales, even in its 6th Summer.
Congrats to @mjw and @Malden with their excellent 270.000 prediction, merely 1 unit away there is @Ystad who rounds up the podium. The error margin on this one was 0,2% (!) for all of them.
July chart
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- #72
Congrats to the top predictors ! @Multiverse at #1, @Chris1964 at #2 and @Ryng™ at #3 !! It was a tough month with some underperformers and overperforms so congrats.
For the others, there is still the opportunity to do better (or worse) with August
Media Create Prediction League : August 2022 [CLOSED]
Hello everyone ! While we are still waiting on the final results of June, it is already time to open the July edition of the Prediction League ! We are aiming to host this prediction contest every month, when the release schedule allows it. The rules are simple, you can make and edit your...
www.installbaseforum.com
Predictions are closing in less than 12h now
Yeah, basically my XC3 prediction sank me too. Fairly close on everything else but being 80k off on XC3 sent me down the ranks
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Yeah, I had the highest XB3 prediction. Nice that I was right on Sunbreak's legs though.
Was spot on with Xenoblade 3, but overestimated Digimon, that feels like a joke.
Xenoblade 2 is my favourite Switch game (alongside Gnosia), but all the signs were there. Would have been glad getting it wrong though. And I still think the untracked sales is where Xenoblade 3 will surprise (almost) everyone.
Well well well. Just as I said, the lack of SE is a huge factor.
If it wasn't for Digimon, I could have landed much higher on the list. Should've paid more attention to other members' pessimism on the game's performance.
Nice, just above the median line for me!
Congrats to the top predictors ! @Multiverse at #1, @Chris1964 at #2 and @Ryng™ at #3 !! It was a tough month with some underperformers and overperforms so congrats.
For the others, there is still the opportunity to do better (or worse) with August
Media Create Prediction League : August 2022 [CLOSED]
Hello everyone ! While we are still waiting on the final results of June, it is already time to open the July edition of the Prediction League ! We are aiming to host this prediction contest every month, when the release schedule allows it. The rules are simple, you can make and edit your...
Predictions are closing in less than 12h now
Although I forgot doing the August one lol.