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What is the true sales potential of Pokémon Legends: Arceus ?

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I live in a mid size city in Brazil (Sao Paulo state) and I happen to know the manager of a local eletronic store, he told me he sold over 200 copies of the game in two days. According to him, the only game that came closer to that was TLOU2 with around 150 copies sold during the weekend.
 
I believe Pokemon Legends has the highest peak Twitch viewership of any Nintendo game ever, comfortably exceeding the peak Twitch viewership of any Smash Bros tournaments (one of which which held the previous peak Twitch viewership record for a Nintendo game).
 
Guaraná said:
I live in a mid size city in Brazil (Sao Paulo state) and I happen to know the manager of a local eletronic store, he told me he sold over 200 copies of the game in two days. According to him, the only game that came closer to that was TLOU2 with around 150 copies sold during the weekend.
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Pokémon bigger than TLOU confirmed.

/s
 
Kano said:
Peak was 477k yesterday btw.
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versus
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These numbers, my word.

We might be dealing with the possibility that Pokemon has become such a massive franchise that Sword and Shield - which broke records and became the best selling mainline Pokemon since Generation 2 - might've indeed suffered more than we thought from a good chunk of the hardcore audience refusing to buy it, yet it was nowhere near enough to stop the train from rolling.

I know the hardcore audience is merely a vocal minority, but for a series as huge as Pokemon, a vocal minority may very well comprise of millions of people.
 
Kano said:
Peak was 477k yesterday btw.
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versus
jOtu6c5.png
3FED3X7.png
HtOc0z3.png
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The collapse of Pokémon XD

Edit: looking at this post, it seems like I’m referring to Pokémon Coliseum XD the game, but no I’m referring to Sword and Shield and the others. Their viewership is so low and Legends gobbled it up.
 
Joxer said:
Which will sell more: Pokemon Legends: Arceus or Horizon Forbidden West?

Which will sell more: BOTW2 or God Of War Ragnarok?

Which will sell more: Kirby and the Forgotten Land or Elden Ring?
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Good old days
 
Koni said:
These numbers, my word.

We might be dealing with the possibility that Pokemon has become such a massive franchise that Sword and Shield - which broke records and became the best selling mainline Pokemon since Generation 2 - might've indeed suffered more than we thought from a good chunk of the hardcore audience refusing to buy it, yet it was nowhere near enough to stop the train from rolling.

I know the hardcore audience is merely a vocal minority, but for a series as huge as Pokemon, a vocal minority may very well comprise of millions of people.
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That's actually a very interesting thought that I'll support.

The argument against all the SwSh-critics has always been "but look at how well SwSh sold. You're wrong!". If Arceus now actually manages to sell comfortable above SwSh, say 5-10 million LTD more, then that argument would retroactively lose a lot of legitimacy. Of course, it could also be that Arceus would simply be that much more popular per se. But your approach holds some truth: For a franchise as massive as Pokemon, SwSh's supposedly great numbers might not have been that great actually.
 
storres said:
Pokémon bigger than TLOU confirmed.

/s
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PlayStation brand in Brazil today is so strong that anything getting close to its sales would already be awesome.
TLOUS2 was localized to Brazilian Portuguese, had a regional price, and was heavily advertised (even during soccer games). Nintendo doesn't even have an official hardware presence here.
 
Releasing outside the western holiday window seems like a golden move, I think we are looking biggest pokemon launch in history and a double dip in november 2022
 
Remember that while we love big openings, Nintendo is all about the legs. I'm sure they are extra happy with SWSH. It will no doubt come close to Red and Blue when it's all said and done.
 
Guaraná said:
PlayStation brand in Brazil today is so strong that anything getting close to its sales would already be awesome.
TLOUS2 was localized to Brazilian Portuguese, had a regional price, and was heavily advertised (even during soccer games). Nintendo doesn't even have an official hardware presence here.
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Wait, didn't they launch Switch in Brazil in September 2020?
 
jman2050 said:
That's a pretty big absurdity on its face that's not really supported by anything, Arceus performance aside.
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Why? Like, I'm not saying it's actually the case. I'm only entertaining the possibility. If SwSh would have actually sold 10+ mio more had the game be of better quality, that's something that could be true for one of the most massive franchises in the world. Imagine a world where GTA5 was a significantly worse game than it is. Imagine that in that world it sold 50 mio units. Great, right? But in our real world where GTA5 is the great game it is, it sold vastly above 100 mio units.

Game quality is not always directly tied to a game's success, but it is tied to a game's WoM, and that can significantly change a game's sales potential. SwSh had got massive criticism in the weeks leading up to its launch and still isn't talked about all too fondly amongst enthusiast gamers. It's impossible to say as of now, but what @Koni said could hold some truth. I'd say let's wait for Arceus' numbers.
 
How about saving the reverse dooming of SwSh until after we actually have sales data? lol

PLA might have a big opening but it will probably be more frontloaded than SwSh. It will be no easy feat at all to sell more than the 25M SwSh is going to end at. I'm personally not expecting it just yet, but I do think the game will do over 18M.
 
Tokuiten said:
Why? Like, I'm not saying it's actually the case. I'm only entertaining the possibility. If SwSh would have actually sold 10+ mio more had the game be of better quality, that's something that could be true for one of the most massive franchises in the world. Imagine a world where GTA5 was a significantly worse game than it is. Imagine that in that world it sold 50 mio units. Great, right? But in our real world where GTA5 is the great game it is, it sold vastly above 100 mio units.

Game quality is not always directly tied to a game's success, but it is tied to a game's WoM, and that can significantly change a game's sales potential. SwSh had got massive criticism in the weeks leading up to its launch and still isn't talked about all too fondly amongst enthusiast gamers. It's impossible to say as of now, but what @Koni said could hold some truth. I'd say let's wait for Arceus' numbers.
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Do I have to explain why saying "Sw/Sh selling 25 million+ might actually be bad because it should've sold 35 million if only it weren't so bad, and a completely different type of game that has nothing to do with Sw/Sh may prove it" is an incredibly absurd statement?
 
jman2050 said:
Do I have to explain why saying "Sw/Sh selling 25 million+ might actually be bad because it should've sold 35 million if only it weren't so bad, and a completely different type of game that has nothing to do with Sw/Sh may prove it" is an incredibly absurd statement?
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Yes
 
storres said:
www.thegamer.com

FIFA 22's Physical Launch Sales Are Down More Than 35% vs. Last Year

No, it isn't because everyone has been busy playing eFootball.
www.thegamer.com www.thegamer.com

Sales are down. Sword and Shield are sales are up compared to others in the series.
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From 2021 European Market Report:
"FIFA 22 was the biggest video game across Europe last year, selling almost double second place. EA's hit football game is 17% up over the previous year's title, FIFA 21 (for the comparable period)." The original post was specifically talking about Legacy Edition (Nintendo Switch version), though.
 
storres said:
A game that sells 25 million is in no way bad. A bad product doesn't sell. No matter the name behind it.
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Tokuiten never said it was bad, they just raised that maybe 25~30 millions isn't the ceiling for Pokemon (the biggest media franchise in the world).

But I agree with Kano that they're jumping the gun here. People are super sensitive about this topic and it will just end up in the usual toxicity, unfortunately.

Only a data driven discussion has any chance of not ending like that, so it's better to at least wait until we do have Arceus data.
 
Oh god, I feel like I opened up Pandora’s Box way too early. Definitely should’ve waited till we got actual hard sales numbers in hindsight. There may honestly be room for an actual debate here, but we need numbers first, both in the short term and in the long term. I didn’t mean for this to get potentially toxic. I was only observing how much of a juggernaut Pokémon is, haha.
 
finally sinking my teeth into the game itself and it really is lovely! seeing the massive response for it and just all the love surrounding it, i'm totally going 180 on my early prediction for this. 20+mill in the first year is a lock!
 
Koni said:
These numbers, my word.

We might be dealing with the possibility that Pokemon has become such a massive franchise that Sword and Shield - which broke records and became the best selling mainline Pokemon since Generation 2 - might've indeed suffered more than we thought from a good chunk of the hardcore audience refusing to buy it, yet it was nowhere near enough to stop the train from rolling.

I know the hardcore audience is merely a vocal minority, but for a series as huge as Pokemon, a vocal minority may very well comprise of millions of people.
Click to expand...
Tokuiten said:
That's actually a very interesting thought that I'll support.

The argument against all the SwSh-critics has always been "but look at how well SwSh sold. You're wrong!". If Arceus now actually manages to sell comfortable above SwSh, say 5-10 million LTD more, then that argument would retroactively lose a lot of legitimacy. Of course, it could also be that Arceus would simply be that much more popular per se. But your approach holds some truth: For a franchise as massive as Pokemon, SwSh's supposedly great numbers might not have been that great actually.
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I really doubt this would be the case, and the latter post specifically is ridiculous. Spinning a massive success into a "failure" with conspiracy theory level reasoning. Let's first wait to see if Legends even manages to outsell SwSh, but even if it does, it'd much likelier be because it expanded the audience (getting picked up by lapsed fans, casual fans, people who aren't traditionally fans in the first place but hear open world Pokémon, etc.) than because "millions" of people refused to buy SwSh.
 
Will776 said:
What's the biggest Q1/Jan launch? i think Pokemon is taking it.
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Q1 have other games like Elden Ring and Horizon with Nintendo also launching Kirby, but tome at this point sounds like impossible to any game beat PLA sales
 
Lord Azrael said:
I really doubt this would be the case, and the latter post specifically is ridiculous. Spinning a massive success into a "failure" with conspiracy theory level reasoning. Let's first wait to see if Legends even manages to outsell SwSh, but even if it does, it'd much likelier be because it expanded the audience (getting picked up by lapsed fans, casual fans, people who aren't traditionally fans in the first place but hear open world Pokémon, etc.) than because "millions" of people refused to buy SwSh.
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I didn't say "failure".

The situation COULD be like what a lot of (western) 3rd-parties are doing by ignoring the Switch: The product sells "enough" to be technically a success. But how much more successful could it have been, IF!
 
Tokuiten said:
I didn't say "failure".

The situation COULD be like what a lot of (western) 3rd-parties are doing by ignoring the Switch: The product sells "enough" to be technically a success. But how much more successful could it have been, IF!
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honestly, I don't think much. what evidence is there that "better graphics = better sales"? because a lot of "better graphics" comes with a lot of other "betters". better looking presentation, better gameplay, better market, etc. trying to isolate better graphics in sales discussion is rather difficult. it's actually more easy to prove that graphics don't do much to move the needle
 
I might be about to make a fool of myself but, is it possible for Arceus to be the best-selling single SKU of 2022 in the US given it's January launch? Does that go to Call of Duty all the time or is it a contestable achievement for high profile exclusives?
 
IF SwSh ends up selling 30m copies and PLA sells 35m copies i still don't see how you can spin that as a "failure" for SwSh.
It would rather imply GF/TPC did everything wrong after Gen1 and finally got back their original audience with SwSh and expanded it with PLA (BotW and MH audience).

I wouldn't argue that but i understand that reasoning more than blaming SwSh.
 
ILikeFeet said:
honestly, I don't think much. what evidence is there that "better graphics = better sales"? because a lot of "better graphics" comes with a lot of other "betters". better looking presentation, better gameplay, better market, etc. trying to isolate better graphics in sales discussion is rather difficult. it's actually more easy to prove that graphics don't do much to move the needle
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I'm super confused where you took 'graphics' from my postings.

Simar said:
IF SwSh ends up selling 30m copies and PLA sells 35m copies i still don't see how you can spin that as a "failure" for SwSh.
It would rather imply GF/TPC did everything wrong after Gen1 and finally got back their original audience with SwSh and expanded it with PLA (BotW and MH audience).

I wouldn't argue that but i understand that reasoning more than blaming SwSh.
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Where is anyone 'spinning' SwSh as 'failure'?
 
Anecdotal, but 96 people on my friends list have played the game this weekend. I'm going to go out on a limb and say this game is going to do fine.
 
Tokuiten said:
Where is anyone 'spinning' SwSh as 'failure'?
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To clarify: failure wasn't supposed to be a quote but it was certainly implied in the previous arguments.
GTAV selling 50m copies without context is great. GTAV selling only 50m copies "in our world" would be a failure (tho hard to prove in a WHAT IF example).

If PLA sells more copies it won't be because SwSh quality stopped millions of people from buying pokemon games. It's actually the opposite: The great WoM of SwSh expanded the audience by millions and PLA might do that again.
 
Luke88 said:
I might be about to make a fool of myself but, is it possible for Arceus to be the best-selling single SKU of 2022 in the US given it's January launch? Does that go to Call of Duty all the time or is it a contestable achievement for high profile exclusives?
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No chance. Pokémon is stronger in Europe and Japan, Call of Duty is stronger in the US, Call of Duty is priced higher, this year's game is the sequel to the best-selling game in the series (Modern Warfare) and digital sales for Legends won't even be included though it doesn't change much in the end when compared to CoD. Even Animal Crossing: New Horizons didn't manage to do it and was behind 2 Call of Duty games (MW 2019 and BO Cold War).
 
If PLA sells more than shwield (correct spelling lol), then I’m taking that as a double win for the devs. Not only did shwield expand the audience from the 3ds mainline games, but they established another “pillar” that expands it even more. That to me means GEN9 will have an automatic higher base level.
 
On my friends on Switch, I have 41+ me tht started the game. That's impressive!
It went up by 1 as I wrote this. 42+me lol.
 
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