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What is the true sales potential of Pokémon Legends: Arceus ?

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.. and please only talk about leaks with spoiler tags 🙏
 
Looking at the leaks feels like cheating a bit lol, I won't change my vote, but I definitely feel very optimistic about Arceus now, I think this game is gonna be crazy.

All those new forms and some of the story stuff I think will give this game really good WOM and it will blow up on Social Media and that will really boost it, potentially near or even beyond Sword and Shield.
 
I’m gonna change my prediction to 20 million or above btw

Also I’m gonna spend a lot of time wondering what the fuck TPCi’s problem is
 
Phantom Thief said:
Imagine if they used that massive hoard of Pokémon money to actually market this game. The leaks are making it clear just how much they dropped the ball on that.
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I guess we'll know pretty soon if they took the good path or not. There are other examples of games that showed so little in their marketing cycle to their benefit (Breath of the Wild for instance).

The vocal Pokémon community on the web is very whiny and would cherry-pick either way. Starving the marketing cycle of info and letting the game speak for itself might be a valid strategy, we'll see.
 
Phantom Thief said:
Imagine if they used that massive hoard of Pokémon money to actually market this game. The leaks are making it clear just how much they dropped the ball on that.
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Idk, I think the mystery and craziness fuel viral marketing and social media engagement and could boost the game.

The reactions to all the new forms and the time travel will likely be all over the place, the leaks are already spreading life wildfire on Twitter and reddit
 
Lelouch0612 said:
I guess we'll know pretty soon if they took the good path or not. There are other examples of games that showed so little in their marketing cycle to their benefit (Breath of the Wild for instance).

The vocal Pokémon community on the web is very whiny and would cherry-pick either way. Starving the marketing cycle of info and letting the game speak for itself might be a valid strategy, we'll see.
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BotW had 6.5 hours of footage shown off ahead of launch lol. It’s not really comparable here. I’m not even asking for them to have shown the bigger and more comprehensive changes, but there’s so much smaller QoL and mechanical stuff people have been begging for for years that they finally got around to with Legends and then chose to… not even acknowledge it, hell they barely acknowledged the game itself in their marketing.

Who knows, maybe starving people for info and keeping expectations lowered is something they might have consciously leaned into with PLA, to me it just seems bizarre.

TheSilentWombat said:
Idk, I think the mystery and craziness fuel viral marketing and social media engagement and could boost the game.

The reactions to all the new forms and the time travel will likely be all over the place, the leaks are already spreading life wildfire on Twitter and reddit
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The story and the gameplay changes are going to give it a wild viral tail, yes
 
Watched some of the leaks. I caved and just pre-ordered the game.


I'm so weak, lol.
 
I said I wouldn't look at any spoilers too lol, but I could not resist. Breath of the Wild 2 will be torture when that inevitably leaks, but I would encourage you to stay strong, cause seeing this stuff play out in the games is gonna be crazy if you can survive another 9 days.
 
I’ll do my patented strategy. Which is not make an estimation and when I see sales figure go “seems about right” and move on…


In reality I’m just not sure.
 
Lelouch0612 said:
You guys are making it very hard to not click on those Spoilers.
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Stay strong.. Pray to Arceus for Strength.

And don't open Twitter ever. I already got hit by a picture of every single new mon/form though I was lightning quick to scroll so didn't see anything long enough for it to register as more then vague colors and shapes that didn't really register as anything.
 
Hey all, my first post on the boards! This thread is exactly what I need to get hyped without actually seeing spoilers. It feels like cheating now but I'll say 20 million. It's got 11 months to get there! Edit: based on the poll about 2022 :p
 
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Celeste said:
Hey all, my first post on the boards! This thread is exactly what I need to get hyped without actually seeing spoilers. It feels like cheating now but I'll say 20 million. It's got 11 months to get there!
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More than that, since I assume Gen 9 (or whatever the next game turns out to be) is Holiday 2023
 
Phantom Thief said:
Don’t do it!


Did you see the leaks? Asking because I remember having a conversation with you about the state of Pokémon games a bit ago!
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Yeah I've seen them, I wasn't expecting them to be hiding so much about this game, I thought it was potentially going to be a bit naff and that's why they had nothing to show. In the past I've talked about how I'm disappointed with Sword & Shield and the direction of the mainline franchise, this game could be exactly what was needed and it seemed that way since it was announced but they've never shown enough officially for it to look like it would deliver on its potential.

I'm still waiting for reviews to see how it'll all fit together before I buy but fans are really gonna lap this up.
 
Xevross said:
Yeah I've seen them, I wasn't expecting them to be hiding so much about this game, I thought it was potentially going to be a bit naff and that's why they had nothing to show. In the past I've talked about how I'm disappointed with Sword & Shield and the direction of the mainline franchise, this game could be exactly what was needed and it seemed that way since it was announced but they've never shown enough officially for it to look like it would deliver on its potential.

I'm still waiting for reviews to see how it'll all fit together before I buy but fans are really gonna lap this up.
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Yes, I agree! I always thought this game was conceptually everything Pokemon fans have ever wanted, and I was hoping it would live up to that to at least some degree, I just didn't expect them to be going so in lol.

Hopefully it reviews appropriately well

Celeste said:
I agree! Was looking at the poll that says 2022 though haha
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Oh, d'oh. Totally lost track lol
 
BoktaiFan said:
This is why you never bet against pokemon lol
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Part of me knows that there's still a good chance I'll end up hating the game, but what I just saw ... it's these details that tell me there's more love and ambition in the game than previous trailers made me believe. And one "thing" is exactly what I always imagined my dream Pokemon-game to have, so I feel like I have to put my money where my mouth's at and support this. ;>
 
Tokuiten said:
Part of me knows that there's still a good chance I'll end up hating the game, but what I just saw ... it's these details that tell me there's more love and ambition in the game than previous trailers made me believe. And one "thing" is exactly what I always imagined my dream Pokemon-game to have, so I feel like I have to put my money where my mouth's at and support this. ;>
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I very curious where they go with gen 9 after this!

I feel like they are building foindations and we'll see how legends turns out but I've optimistic for the future of the franchise
 
I've looked at the leaks and I'm not excited about the game at first. I still say around 10-12 million units.
Lelouch0612 said:
The vocal Pokémon community on the web is very whiny and would cherry-pick either way.
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Honestly, the series needs a five-year break. Give the whole thing a reboot and cover other areas until then (TCG for example).
Lelouch0612 said:
You guys are making it very hard to not click on those Spoilers.
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You can also ask other staff members to do the moderating work. 😏
 
Poll results
  • Index
    • The poll is now close and here are the final results :

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  • Index
    • Lelouch0612 said:
    The poll is now close and here are the final results :

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    I feel like the pessimistic people are gonna be very wrong about Legends Arceus. This might end up one of the least accurate install base predictions so far, and I say that as someone who voted 15-18 million. People are way underestimating this game and its sales potential.
     
    Lelouch0612 said:
    The poll is now close and here are the final results :

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    Interesting, 60.2% believe it will do 15M or below and 39.8% believe it will do above 15M.

    11.9% believe that the game will perhaps get close or match SwSh (+20M title)

    While 23.8% believe it will be in the realm of the rereleases (Crystal, Emerald, Ultra Sun, etc.)

    And most notably, there are more people that believe it will do above 20M than there are those that think it’ll do better than past games but worse than Sword and Shield at 5.3%.

    Interesting dynamic!
     
    Abzeronow said:
    I think Arceus will do over 20 million lifetime WW. In 2022, I think it beats Let's Go by a healthy margin but doesn't quite get to Sword/Shield levels so 12-15 million that's closer to the 15 million part.
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    I probably would have revised upwards to 15-18 million. I think Arceus could do 30 million lifetime WW.
     
    The marketing (or lack thereof?) for the game has been kinda wack, like, surprisingly silent for a game coming out in a week. That along with the information we have been officially given (which seems to just repeat information we know already) + the overall reception pointed towards a not-as-hype performance, at least to me.

    However, now that I've seen the leaks and overall impressions of the gameplay and stuff, I probably would vote for a higher amount, like around 20m.
     
    Lelouch0612 said:
    The poll is now close and here are the final results :

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    Glad I upped my prediction to 15-18M and, just based on how people seem to be feeling about the leaks (that I haven't read myself), it could end on the higher end of this if not a little bit above.

    Kimbou said:
    The marketing (or lack thereof?) for the game has been kinda wack, like, surprisingly silent for a game coming out in a week. That along with the information we have been officially given (which seems to just repeat information we know already) + the overall reception pointed towards a not-as-hype performance, at least to me.

    However, now that I've seen the leaks and overall impressions of the gameplay and stuff, I probably would vote for a higher amount, at least 20m+.
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    I think we (as in, core gamers), put too much importance on reveals and trailers as part of the global marketing push. TPC is pushing Legends hard, just not through revealing a lot of the game. It has a ton of ads running, lots of billboards and big advertisment showcases.
     
    A big part of the marketing for this game will also be the WOM the game generates, and the fact they have left so many mysteries means this game will likely generate tons of discussions and interactions online which could further boost its sales. There will be so many youtube videos made about this game, it's gonna be crazy.
     
    I have a history of being way off-too high or too low. So I’m gonna say 12 million. I just get the sense that it’ll start extremely strong and but drop off very rapidly.
     
    Tbone5189 said:
    That would require bad WoM and this game won’t have that, judging what a lot of us that seen
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    I’m still sticking to it. 12 million is still a large number of copies. Cautiously pessimistic maybe, but I think the lack of multiplayer and players moving on will put the ceiling at the 12 million spot. Happy to be wrong though with the game winding up being revolutionary with BOTW single player legs.
     
    PianoMorgan said:
    I’m still sticking to it. 12 million is still a large number of copies. Cautiously pessimistic maybe, but I think the lack of multiplayer and players moving on will put the ceiling at the 12 million spot. Happy to be wrong though with the game winding up being revolutionary with BOTW single player legs.
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    It doesn't need to be revolutionary, but just has enough content to keep people coming back. Viral-ability helps a lot too, if it has that
     
    Just a random thought i had:
    Hopefully ILCA is working on a Platinum remake and Legends Arceus is very successful.
    That would make me hope for/expect a Legends Kyurem game by GF after Gen 9 + BW AND B2W2 Remakes by ILCA.
     
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