UPDATED: How much will Xenoblade Chronicles 3 sell? POST-REVEAL POLL

[roseandcigaret]

Difficult to say but if it is really a direct sequel to both XC1 and XC2 it's gonna be hard for it to exceed XC2 by much if at all.

this. I like the Chronicles games a lot but the fantastical world and artstyle doesn't attract a wide spectrum of audience when you compare it to more realistic RPGs or, say, something like Zelda

I think ideally the story would not be connected to 2, or it will indeed greatly limit who is interested

 

[Tokuiten]

this. I like the Chronicles games a lot but the fantastical world and artstyle doesn't attract a wide spectrum of audience when you compare it to more realistic RPGs or, say, something like Zelda

I think ideally the story would not be connected to 2, or it will indeed greatly limit who is interested

Zelda is a 30 yo famous franchise. So that aside: Do you have any facts to back up that statement or is it just your opinion?

I can't help but be curious about such statements, because I repeatedly showed that Xenoblade 2's artstyle is the most popular artstyle in the world of anime, 95% of all modern anime share a similar look. That's why using this as an argument AGAINST better sales just sounds weird to my ears.

Hard disagree on the "fantastical world" argument, though. Monolith Soft's world designs are their #1 strength and the reason for their success, hence why Nintendo brought them to help with BotW.

 

[Luke88]

I wanna be optimistic so I said between 3M and 4M but I think it'll stick around the 3M mark.

 

[Uniomni]

I suspect it will perform similarly to Xenoblade Chronicles 2 unless it's a drastically different type of game. Bear in mind that Xeno 2 was an early Switch game (holidays 2017 I believe) so that probably actually aided it a bit because there was less software competition at the time

I would guess 2 or 3 million although if the setting is interesting or the style a bit different maybe it could surprise and do better. Xenoblade CHronicles 2 has that heavily JRPG anime style which typically seems to create a ceiling on the audience

This is my exact same thinking.

Could you imagine the art direction of something like Triangle Strategy, but cell shaded 3d?
Adding in something like a Grandia inspired battle system?

The visual customization aspect of XB should definitely be kept though.

If Nintendo gave me that I'd buy 4 copies, completely serious and gift three of them to different people.

 

[Uniomni]

Zelda is a 30 yo famous franchise. So that aside: Do you have any facts to back up that statement or is it just your opinion?

I can't help but be curious about such statements, because I repeatedly showed that Xenoblade 2's artstyle is the most popular artstyle in the world of anime, 95% of all modern anime share a similar look. That's why using this as an argument AGAINST better sales just sounds weird to my ears.

Hard disagree on the "fantastical world" argument, though. Monolith Soft's world designs are their #1 strength and the reason for their success, hence why Nintendo brought them to help with BotW.

To your second point, it's not a silent crowd that complains about the current trends of anime.
The wedding dress/lingerie waifu school of design is slathered with impracticality and is largely derided by those not enamored with the tastes of the day.
A huge thread on Resetera referencing laughable character design tells us that for many, it's off-putting.
Armor so divorced from reality that it'd take a miracle to move in?
Pauldrons the size of bowling balls?

Imagine AOT but with the trends of the day in place....lol..

Form over function caps the sales potential, is the point.

 

[Marukoban]

This is my exact same thinking.

Could you imagine the art direction of something like Triangle Strategy, but cell shaded 3d?
Adding in something like a Grandia inspired battle system?

The visual customization aspect of XB should definitely be kept though.

If Nintendo gave me that I'd buy 4 copies, completely serious and gift three of them to different people.

If want to change so much, why even bother call it Xenoblade lol
Might as well create a new series. However, whether what you’d like to see resonates with wider audience or not, remains to be seen.

Regarding complaint on ERA, that forum is a small echo chamber, that does not represent wider gaming audience. It’s also not a coincidence that you don’t see so many “art discussion” about Xenoblade 2 elsewhere

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

I don't think a change in art direction necessarily warrants a change in franchise.

Big open area's to explore with XB2s combat system is the core of xenoblade, not the way it looks. Especially when XB2s character models were all over the place, they even had guest artists like Nomura make some designs.

 

[Uniomni]

If want to change so much, why even bother call it Xenoblade lol
Might as well create a new series. However, whether what you’d like to see resonates with wider audience or not, remains to be seen.

Regarding complaint on ERA, that forum is a small echo chamber, that does not represent wider gaming audience. It’s also not a coincidence that you don’t see so many “art discussion” about Xenoblade 2 elsewhere

I can't recall if I said it here but I've definitely said it elsewhere....
I'd rather they do a new ip with more refined tendencies than another Xenoblade game.
I sincerely don't even know why they insisted on the name or Xenosaga connection, as that series held virtually zero mindshare in the overall market when Xenoblade first released.

Let it be a new ground up series, and if it explodes in comparison to past XB efforts, then maybe see about having a sequel on the Switch successor, for it's second year.
Have a trailer for the successor launch, and aim for an early spring 2024 or 25 launch.

So you don't see the silly(imo) costume design decisions as something to avoid? Huh, how about that....

 

[Uniomni]

I don't think a change in art direction necessarily warrants a change in franchise.

Big open area's to explore with XB2s combat system is the core of xenoblade, not the way it looks. Especially when XB2s character models were all over the place, they even had guest artists like Nomura make some designs.

That combat system is nightmare fuel to me.
It's the Tales of Abyss phonic/lophonics lore gibberish in battle system form.

That definitely needs a breaking, reforging, trimming and leanly hewing.

 

[Tokuiten]

To your second point, it's not a silent crowd that complains about the current trends of anime.
The wedding dress/lingerie waifu school of design is slathered with impracticality and is largely derided by those not enamored with the tastes of the day.
A huge thread on Resetera referencing laughable character design tells us that for many, it's off-putting.
Armor so divorced from reality that it'd take a miracle to move in?
Pauldrons the size of bowling balls?

Imagine AOT but with the trends of the day in place....lol..

Form over function caps the sales potential, is the point.

But that's what many of those Xenoblade 2-"critics" refuse to accept: The majority of those who likes anime-styled jrpgs and played Xenoblade 2, liked the game. And liked it because of the designs. This is absolutely a Resetera-bubble thing that is not supported by fan communites anywhere else on the internet. And saying "largely derided by those not enarmored with the tastes of the day", well, yes, non-anime fans won't like Xenoblade 2, but they aren't the target audience to begin with.

That is what makes these debates so frustrating: A small bubble being convinced that its believes are shared by the majority of the game's audience. That's just not true. Whether it's on Reddit, gamefaqs, Youtubers, discord communities, etc., the vast majority of people who played Xenoblade 2 liked its designs. Have you seen how popular Genshin Impact is?

I understand and, of course, accept that some people didn't like these designs. But we're talking about sales here and if you want to make a claim that a game that targets anime-fans hurts its sales because of anime-designs, then you'll have to bring a better argument. "It'd sell better if it didn't look like anime" is not a good argument, because that would be an entirely different game with an entirely different audience. Just to make this clear: It'd be very interesting to see a sales data study that shows how anime-designs hurt Xenoblade 2. But again, if the argument is "most people don't like anime, therefore different designs would make Xenoblade 2 sell better" , that's a duh-argument. The Xeno-games want to be anime, it's what Takahashi Tetsuya loves.

 

[rAndom]

It's funny how 4 years in and Xenoblade 2 discussions always get derailed like this, no matter what the original topic is.

At the end of the day, sales-wise and popularity-wise, Xenoblade 2 is Monolithsoft's best yet (discounting games that they assisted like BOTW of course). Whatever your personal feelings about the game are, those are the facts.

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

That combat system is nightmare fuel to me.
It's the Tales of Abyss phonic/lophonics lore gibberish in battle system form.

That definitely needs a breaking, reforging, trimming and leanly hewing.

Yeah, i really like it but im a veteran jrpg player and it took 20 hours for the combat to click.

 

[Uniomni]

But that's what many of those Xenoblade 2-"critics" refuse to accept: The majority of those who likes anime-styled jrpgs and played Xenoblade 2, liked the game. And liked it because of the designs. This is absolutely a Resetera-bubble thing that is not supported by fan communites anywhere else on the internet. And saying "largely derided by those not enarmored with the tastes of the day", well, yes, non-anime fans won't like Xenoblade 2, but they aren't the target audience to begin with.

That is what makes these debates so frustrating: A small bubble being convinced that its believes are shared by the majority of the game's audience. That's just not true. Whether it's on Reddit, gamefaqs, Youtubers, discord communities, etc., the vast majority of people who played Xenoblade 2 liked its designs. Have you seen how popular Genshin Impact is?

I understand and, of course, accept that some people didn't like these designs. But we're talking about sales here and if you want to make a claim that a game that targets anime-fans hurts its sales because of anime-designs, then you'll have to bring a better argument. "It'd sell better if it didn't look like anime" is not a good argument, because that would be an entirely different game with an entirely different audience. Just to make this clear: It'd be very interesting to see a sales data study that shows how anime-designs hurt Xenoblade 2. But again, if the argument is "most people don't like anime, therefore different designs would make Xenoblade 2 sell better" , that's a duh-argument. The Xeno-games want to be anime, it's what Takahashi Tetsuya loves.

I never said Xenoblade shouldn't look like anime. My critique comes from it embracing the hallmarks of current bad anime design.
I referenced Re:Fantasy and Triangle Strategy in two different posts, which both are clearly anime/manga evoking.
Costume design where it's women rocking lingerie with pointless plates and straps is my beef.
Costume design where it's guys rocking literal Frigidaire Stoves with nonsensical straps and belts is my issue..
I never knew pushback would be received for asking for better art from multimillion dollar productions.
It's just needful of imo a better grade of art design.

In my first post in this thread, I said my thoughts on the sales potential and why.
I also said what I think could possibly see a return of lapsed jrpg players and potentially raise the ceiling towards the sales cap.
I maintain that position.

Maybe me and those who feel similar are a small minority of people, but if MonolithSoft were to put out another project that doesn't mirror Xenoblade, maybe we can see if the audience is there for it.
All I know is that right now, should it be more not to my tastes art design and obtuse battle systems, I'm personally not buying.

 

[Marukoban]

I don't think a change in art direction necessarily warrants a change in franchise.

Big open area's to explore with XB2s combat system is the core of xenoblade, not the way it looks. Especially when XB2s character models were all over the place, they even had guest artists like Nomura make some designs.

Well he also wants a new combat system …

I never said Xenoblade shouldn't look like anime. My critique comes from it embracing the hallmarks of current bad anime design.
I referenced Re:Fantasy and Triangle Strategy in two different posts, which both are clearly anime/manga evoking.
Costume design where it's women rocking lingerie with pointless plates and straps is my beef.
Costume design where it's guys rocking literal Frigidaire Stoves with nonsensical straps and belts is my issue..
I never knew pushback would be received for asking for better art from multimillion dollar productions.
It's just needful of imo a better grade of art design.

In my first post in this thread, I said my thoughts on the sales potential and why.
I also said what I think could possibly see a return of lapsed jrpg players and potentially raise the ceiling towards the sales cap.
I maintain that position.

Maybe me and those who feel similar are a small minority of people, but if MonolithSoft were to put out another project that doesn't mirror Xenoblade, maybe we can see if the audience is there for it.
All I know is that right now, should it be more not to my tastes art design and obtuse battle systems, I'm personally not buying.

But you see, you’re conflating your and small population of ERA’s tastes with wider audience. Should I also tell Activision to change COD just because I don’t like it? Or EA with FIFA? At some point people need to accept that not all games are for them and it’s ok to skip some games not up your alley.

For the record I don’t think the art style in Xenoblade 1 vs X vs 2 mattered that much to their sales. It’s just so ridiculous to see people think by going another style, the series would’ve suddenly gained 1-2 million more sales.

Triangle Strategy is also unlikely to sell more than Xenoblade 2. SRPG is a harder sell.
While I dont think this will affect its sales, Triangle Strategy’s art direction is not really in line with popular anime trend. If it’s released as an anime, it will be almost be likely a failure.

Don’t know much about Re:Fantasy. Don’t think we have heard or seen much about it. So it doesn’t make sense to speculate about it.

 

[roseandcigaret]

Zelda is a 30 yo famous franchise. So that aside: Do you have any facts to back up that statement or is it just your opinion?

I can't help but be curious about such statements, because I repeatedly showed that Xenoblade 2's artstyle is the most popular artstyle in the world of anime, 95% of all modern anime share a similar look. That's why using this as an argument AGAINST better sales just sounds weird to my ears.

Hard disagree on the "fantastical world" argument, though. Monolith Soft's world designs are their #1 strength and the reason for their success, hence why Nintendo brought them to help with BotW.

sales back up what I've said. Name one 'anime looking' JRPG that sells more than 5M WW? and by anime I mean the characters and the conventions. Pyra does look like a stereotype (not that it bothers me particularly), the plot, cutscenes, and companions also follow popular anime motifs.

also, you're seriously suggesting that it is "opinion" that anime/JRPG artstyles typically limit sales? I personally love things like Fire Emblem and Megami Tensei and Xenoblade Chronicles, but it's quite obvious Medieval settings and more realistic art (say, Skyrim or even something like Dragon's Dogma) are much more widely appealing to a broad audience. outside of Dragon Quest the top selling games in more of an anime RPG style is, what, Persona at like 3 or 4 million?

for goodness sake, Xenoblade 2 has had huge criticism and discussion regarding some of its model and artstyle decisions. This is quite clear. There is a stigma. and it's really beyond even just provocative art that may limit it- the game also has a relatively deep strategy/skill level (organizing your party, setting up combos) and there's also the fact that the general gaming population is not that aware of the IP.

as far as Zelda- Breath of the Wild has been helped arguably because it looks more Western (and has a huge install base behind it). overall Xenoblade's artstyle compared with other JRPGs is not the issue, but rather comparing it with Western RPGs it may look less attractive to casual gamers

 

[roseandcigaret]

If want to change so much, why even bother call it Xenoblade lol
Might as well create a new series. However, whether what you’d like to see resonates with wider audience or not, remains to be seen.

Regarding complaint on ERA, that forum is a small echo chamber, that does not represent wider gaming audience. It’s also not a coincidence that you don’t see so many “art discussion” about Xenoblade 2 elsewhere

that's not true though.
their specific complaints about revealing outfits on characters or sexualization may indeed by limited overall

but the general contention about a game like Xenoblade (or Persona or Fire Emblem or anything really in that sort of regard) by the broad gaming public is certainly an assumption that they heavily lean into manga/dating sims/JRPG tropes. And controversial art certainly lends to that.

I personally like Xenoblade and find it quite different from some of the other JRPGs, and I don't particularly want it to dramatically change- I just think it's clear that if the series were to stay roughly the same as it is now, the sales will not grow that much.

 

[ILikeFeet]

anime is more a state of mind

 

[roseandcigaret]

I can't recall if I said it here but I've definitely said it elsewhere....
I'd rather they do a new ip with more refined tendencies than another Xenoblade game.
I sincerely don't even know why they insisted on the name or Xenosaga connection, as that series held virtually zero mindshare in the overall market when Xenoblade first released.

Let it be a new ground up series, and if it explodes in comparison to past XB efforts, then maybe see about having a sequel on the Switch successor, for it's second year.
Have a trailer for the successor launch, and aim for an early spring 2024 or 25 launch.

So you don't see the silly(imo) costume design decisions as something to avoid? Huh, how about that....

I actually think this is a really good point
The Xenosaga games on the Playstation 2 sold abysmally. Renowned and cult classics, but terrible sales. Even Xenogears didn't perform that well on the PS1.
Then Xenoblade Chronicles on the Wii was ridiculously limited on release and almost didn't even get released outside of Japan afaik

I too think Monolift Soft would probably have more success with a new IP that has more of its own identity

 

[roseandcigaret]

But that's what many of those Xenoblade 2-"critics" refuse to accept: The majority of those who likes anime-styled jrpgs and played Xenoblade 2, liked the game. And liked it because of the designs. This is absolutely a Resetera-bubble thing that is not supported by fan communites anywhere else on the internet. And saying "largely derided by those not enarmored with the tastes of the day", well, yes, non-anime fans won't like Xenoblade 2, but they aren't the target audience to begin with.

That is what makes these debates so frustrating: A small bubble being convinced that its believes are shared by the majority of the game's audience. That's just not true. Whether it's on Reddit, gamefaqs, Youtubers, discord communities, etc., the vast majority of people who played Xenoblade 2 liked its designs. Have you seen how popular Genshin Impact is?

I understand and, of course, accept that some people didn't like these designs. But we're talking about sales here and if you want to make a claim that a game that targets anime-fans hurts its sales because of anime-designs, then you'll have to bring a better argument. "It'd sell better if it didn't look like anime" is not a good argument, because that would be an entirely different game with an entirely different audience. Just to make this clear: It'd be very interesting to see a sales data study that shows how anime-designs hurt Xenoblade 2. But again, if the argument is "most people don't like anime, therefore different designs would make Xenoblade 2 sell better" , that's a duh-argument. The Xeno-games want to be anime, it's what Takahashi Tetsuya loves.

Xenogears sold poorly. Xenosaga 1-3 sold poorly. Xenoblade Chronicles 1 was very limited released on the Wii. Chronicles X did terribly but that was probably solely due to the Wii U. Xenoblade Chronicles 2 seems to have sold much better than those, yes, but it is a big game and I am skeptical if Nintendo is thrilled with its sales outside of the fact that it was an extremely useful release for the early Switch days

Xenoblade Chronicles Definitive Edition for the Switch also does not appear to have lit the sales charts on fire.

just on the topic of potential Xenoblade Chronicles 3 sales- there isn't really anything suggesting that a 3rd entry will magically do much better than the second, at least if it is extremely similar to 2.

so when discussing potential sales I think it's natural to cough up to the reality that the IP, as it is, is likely limited in sales potential. Is that due to the genre, art, gameplay? difficult to say. So some might argue Monolith Soft should be able to try something new (JRPG or otherwise).

lastly, Genshin Impact is huge in Asia because it is a mobile game. poor comparison

 

[Marukoban]

sales back up what I've said. Name one 'anime looking' JRPG that sells more than 5M WW?

Pokemon, Dragon Ball Xenoverse, Dragon Quest of the top of my head.
Besides, there are more than just art style that differentiates between "JRPG" and "WRPG".
Trying to put it all on art is just being shortsighted.
Otherwise Dark Souls would've sold as well as Skyrim, Diablo.

that's not true though.
their specific complaints about revealing outfits on characters or sexualization may indeed by limited overall

but the general contention about a game like Xenoblade (or Persona or Fire Emblem or anything really in that sort of regard) by the broad gaming public is certainly an assumption that they heavily lean into manga/dating sims/JRPG tropes. And controversial art certainly lends to that.

I personally like Xenoblade and find it quite different from some of the other JRPGs, and I don't particularly want it to dramatically change- I just think it's clear that if the series were to stay roughly the same as it is now, the sales will not grow that much.

There's nothing to prove this, so I don't get why this needs to be repeated every month in ERA and now here as well.

 

[MysticGon]

The series leans into a lot of anime tropes. I want it to do 5 million+ but it can understandably put a lot of people off.

 

[Torie]

As long as it doesn't have the Stranger of Paradise flair, it sure sells very well.

Japan Sales FW: 220k
Japan Sales LTD: 600k (digital + physical)
Worldwide LTD: 3.0M

 

[ika]

It's funny how 4 years in and Xenoblade 2 discussions always get derailed like this, no matter what the original topic is.

At the end of the day, sales-wise and popularity-wise, Xenoblade 2 is Monolithsoft's best yet (discounting games that they assisted like BOTW of course). Whatever your personal feelings about the game are, those are the facts.

I secretly wished that once far away from the old site, here on Install Base and on Famiboards we'd get a better environment for a non-toxic Xeno community or at the very least we'd keep the discussion about "problematic issues, bad bad Sawano, Monster Hunter killer, oh no anime, the faces!, niche sales, etc" in its own threads and not derailing every other one, but it seems it carried over somewhat...

I had to put many people on ignore to keep an on-topic read on the old site, but it was not ideal as some of those people would make nice contributions about other subjects, so I hope I won't have to start over...

 

[roseandcigaret]

Pokemon, Dragon Ball Xenoverse, Dragon Quest of the top of my head.
Besides, there are more than just art style that differentiates between "JRPG" and "WRPG".
Trying to put it all on art is just being shortsighted.
Otherwise Dark Souls would've sold as well as Skyrim, Diablo.



There's nothing to prove this, so I don't get why this needs to be repeated every month in ERA and now here as well.

Pokemon is a kids adventure series (I mean all ages, really) (the animated show, card game, etc.). Dragon Quest is arguably literally the exception to the rule

the only reason it's being repeated is because some people are being ignorant about why some (like myself) expect Xenoblade Chronicles 3 to sell very similarly to 2 if it remains the same style/presentation/etc. And the large reason it's niche is the style.

this isn't necessarily a good or bad thing, just the reality of the Xenoblade series. There are indeed plenty of people who would see Pyra and freaking Tora and never give it a chance.

Something dramatic probably would have to change for it to break beyond a couple million in sales

 

[GrndMagus]

Pokemon, Dragon Ball Xenoverse, Dragon Quest of the top of my head.
Besides, there are more than just art style that differentiates between "JRPG" and "WRPG".
Trying to put it all on art is just being shortsighted.
Otherwise Dark Souls would've sold as well as Skyrim, Diablo.

Pokemon is special, so there's no sense comparing anything else to it. The Dragon Ball games are all licensed games attached to a genuinely legendary, beloved, and iconic bestselling manga and anime series, so comparisons to it are likewise tough. Dragon Quest isn't popular outside Japan; it is niche. It typically struggled to break a million units in the west, which it did thrice (the original, thanks to Nintendo giving tons of copies away, VIII, as Square had the good sense to bundle the highly desirable Final Fantasy XII demo with it, and IX, when the DS was white hot.) More recently, XII is closing in on two million units sold outside Japan, but that took well over three years worth of time, ports to every platform under the sun, huge price cuts, and an S re-release. I'd argue the art style (Toriyama or no) and turn based combat hurt it.

I wouldn't put it all on art, no, but art is a big part of it. Two other things that hurt JRPGs in general are turn-based combat, rather than action, and a linear story, rather than open world.

Dark Souls is a bad example, as the third installment has sold over ten million units, as of March 2020, with most of that coming from outside Japan. It has action combat, and a non-anime art style. Monster Hunter World is another example of a Japanese game that broke out big, selling over twenty million, combining the original game and the Master edition. It has action combat and a non-anime art style.

 

[roseandcigaret]

I secretly wished that once far away from the old site, here on Install Base and on Famiboards we'd get a better environment for a non-toxic Xeno community or at the very least we'd keep the discussion about "problematic issues, bad bad Sawano, Monster Hunter killer, oh no anime, the faces!, niche sales, etc" in its own threads and not derailing every other one, but it seems it carried over somewhat...

I had to put many people on ignore to keep an on-topic read on the old site, but it was not ideal as some of those people would make nice contributions about other subjects, so I hope I won't have to start over...

I don't quite understand this sentiment- discussion on why a franchise might sell poorly or well seems useful

I personally quite like the Xenoblade Chronicles games and have both 1 and 2 on the Switch. I also personally like JRPGs. but I do recognize that this series sales may be limited if it doesn't experiment a bit with mixing things up, whether with gameplay or presentation. I also recognize that these are big projects. Xenoblade Chronicles 2 is a massive game. I'm not entirely sure if Nintendo will be happy with the franchise sales if, say, Chronicles 3 were to perform the same as 2 did. Something like Fire Emblem seems to perform similarly in sales, and clearly Fire Emblem is a smaller scale game than Xenoblade. That's a concern

which partially makes me wonder if Monolith Soft would need to shake up the Xenoblade formula or try a new IP to achieve a breakout hit.

obvs Nintendo does need a variety of software for its console as well though, so maybe they are less concerned with sales for a title like this and instead use it to pull in a certain demographic of users

 

[storres]

Xenoblade DE doing 1.4 million( I believe that was the last number) it's good. The game was the third release it got. And it grew a lot from the other releases as well. I think that XC3 will do 2.5 to 3 million.

 

[GrndMagus]

Xenoblade DE doing 1.4 million( I believe that was the last number) it's good. The game was the third release it got. And it grew a lot from the other releases as well. I think that XC3 will do 2.5 to 3 million.

Good point about it being the third re-release. After the original, there was the digital release on Wii U, the new 3DS port, and now this. Each of the first three releases were flawed in some way (late in NA & GS exclusive when it arrived, then digital only and confined to Wii U, and lastly, a new 3DS game that wouldn't play on older 3DS or 2DS systems, which made up the vast majority of the install base), but they all happened, and spanned three different systems, two generations, and both handheld and home consoles, so the fact it could still sell another 1.52 million units (as of March 2021) is legitimately impressive.

 

[Lord Azrael]

I actually think this is a really good point
The Xenosaga games on the Playstation 2 sold abysmally. Renowned and cult classics, but terrible sales. Even Xenogears didn't perform that well on the PS1.
Then Xenoblade Chronicles on the Wii was ridiculously limited on release and almost didn't even get released outside of Japan afaik

I too think Monolift Soft would probably have more success with a new IP that has more of its own identity

Barely anyone knows what Xenosaga is, I doubt anyone who wanted to try Xenoblade skipped out on it because they thought it was connected. It's not like Xenoblade was called Xenosaga 4 or something

 

[GrndMagus]

Barely anyone knows what Xenosaga is, I doubt anyone who wanted to try Xenoblade skipped out on it because they thought it was connected. It's not like Xenoblade was called Xenosaga 4 or something

I don't think it's a matter of skipping it. I think rose is saying that the problem is that Monolith naming a game Xeno-anything imposes certain fan expectations on that game, whilst not boosting the game's sales at all (since Xenogears and Xenosaga aren't popular enough to boost anything.) I'm not sure I agree with the former; The metaseries does seem to have enough flexibility to change a great deal (completely new settings, traditional turn based on a seperate battle screen, to real-time battles with enemies you see wandering the environment that play out in the same setting you run around and explore in, with you still controlling your character), though I definitely agree that Xenosaga and Xenogears existing, and the similarity of the name, didn't help sales of Xenoblade much at all.

Spoiler

Incidentally, Xenoblade was originally meant to be called Monado: Beginning of the World.

 

[storres]

Good point about it being the third re-release. After the original, there was the digital release on Wii U, the new 3DS port, and now this. Each of the first three releases were flawed in some way (late in NA & GS exclusive when it arrived, then digital only and confined to Wii U, and lastly, a new 3DS game that wouldn't play on older 3DS or 2DS systems, which made up the vast majority of the install base), but they all happened, and spanned three different systems, two generations, and both handheld and home consoles, so the fact it could still sell another 1.52 million units (as of March 2021) is legitimately impressive.

Yeah, that's even better for a game that's on their third release

 

[Gotdatmoney]

I secretly wished that once far away from the old site, here on Install Base and on Famiboards we'd get a better environment for a non-toxic Xeno community or at the very least we'd keep the discussion about "problematic issues, bad bad Sawano, Monster Hunter killer, oh no anime, the faces!, niche sales, etc" in its own threads and not derailing every other one, but it seems it carried over somewhat...

I had to put many people on ignore to keep an on-topic read on the old site, but it was not ideal as some of those people would make nice contributions about other subjects, so I hope I won't have to start over...

I enjoy Xenoblade as much as the next person but if we're going to talk about how the series will perform and potentially grow you can't really divorce what the game is and the direction they take the sequel from that. There is just a handful of games that have decidedly anime styles that (not even going to talk about other elements) that can really break 3 million.

Our last update of Fire Emblem Three Houses was ~3 million or so and that's a series that had a notably bigger explosion in popularity over a longer list of games with notably less controversy in its designs. While the ceiling is higher for Xenoblade just based on the type of games they are (assuming they make some changes of course) but you'd still be targeting 50% growth for a genre that generally struggles to pass 2 million units let alone 3.

It doesn't need to become the Xenoblade 2 deep critique thread but yeah, to some extent you need to talk about what the game is and isn't if you want to predict where it's future may head and how to grow it. Nothing in this thread is really wildly controversial.

this. I like the Chronicles games a lot but the fantastical world and artstyle doesn't attract a wide spectrum of audience when you compare it to more realistic RPGs or, say, something like Zelda

I think ideally the story would not be connected to 2, or it will indeed greatly limit who is interested

The world design and environmental art of the Xenoblade games is probably the biggest reason why the series is big and has consistently performed better in the West relative to Japan.

Connection to XC2 wouldn't be wildly limiting. We see lots of direct sequels perform fine and increase audience. Really depends more on what they do with the world and what they market. There is lots of silly stuff in XC2 but it still doubled it's first month sales while basically never going to a tire fire discount strategy. There are a handful of JRPGs that can do that. XC2 is not poison by any means. Just have to be careful about what they focus on from it.

But in terms of predicting sales, well, I need to see the game before I can really make a call.

 

[Arynio]

Xenoblade DE doing 1.4 million( I believe that was the last number) it's good. The game was the third release it got. And it grew a lot from the other releases as well. I think that XC3 will do 2.5 to 3 million.

So pretty much the same as or maybe even below XC2's LT sales?

I'm noticing that most people are seeing the ~2M figure for XC2 in the OP and are taking it as the final lifetime sales on which predictions for XC3 are being based, and that's bogus. To lead to better-informed sales discussion I would suggest the OP to clarify that XC2 was at 2.05M back in June 2020 and has kept selling really well in digital storefronts ever since, and that the game is likely to keep selling for a long time, particularly as promotion for XC3 starts.

 

[Tokuiten]

Xenoblade Chronicles 2 seems to have sold much better than those, yes, but it is a big game and I am skeptical if Nintendo is thrilled with its sales outside of the fact that it was an extremely useful release for the early Switch days

Xenoblade 2 didn't have a huge budget (made by 40 staff internally, rest was outsourced) and it became a 2+ mio seller in a genre that has trouble breaking just 1 mio. Nintendo was and is thrilled.

As for the rest of your postings, I find them decidedly bizarre. Your argument is so hyper-capitalistic that I cannot follow it. "Games shouldn't have anime designs, because anime limits its sales appeal." Even if that was true (it's not, massively popular anime exist), it'd mean giving up any creative vision and just building a game by elements that happen to sell better. That's such an awful, scary thought-process. Imagine DaVinci showd the Mona Lisa to someone and was told 'hm, it's ok, but you should put a hat on her head, hats are popular, the painting will sell for a higher price that way.'.

Yours is such a total sell-out philosophy that I have to accept as a valid point, but that I personally don't want to explore. Sacrificing the core of one's creative vision for maximizing sales is, imo, a very toxic attitude that is at fault for things like horse armor dlc, mtx and nfts. Please don't take any of what I wrote as a personal attack, I just fundamentally disagree with your thought pattern.

 

[Tokuiten]

So pretty much the same as or maybe even below XC2's LT sales?

I'm noticing that most people are seeing the ~2M figure for XC2 in the OP and are taking it as the final lifetime sales on which predictions for XC3 are being based, and that's bogus. To lead to better-informed sales discussion I would suggest the OP to clarify that XC2 was at 2.05M back in June 2020 and has kept selling really well in digital storefronts ever since, and that the game is likely to keep selling for a long time, particularly as promotion for XC3 starts.

Added your posting as a threadmark if that's ok

 

[Abzeronow]

this. I like the Chronicles games a lot but the fantastical world and artstyle doesn't attract a wide spectrum of audience when you compare it to more realistic RPGs or, say, something like Zelda

I think ideally the story would not be connected to 2, or it will indeed greatly limit who is interested

I'm going to need you to explain what you mean by "more realistic"? Do you mean more in line with real world physics, biology and what not? Do you mean by tone meaning the characters seem more naturalistic (i.e characters you'd expect from an Emile Zola novel)? Or is that a way of saying more in line with western RPGs? Zelda is a 35 year old series that has gone through many evolutions. Do you mean an action RPG with a focus on dungeons and puzzle solving or do you mean an action RPG that's non-linear and with an open world?

To your second point, it's not a silent crowd that complains about the current trends of anime.
The wedding dress/lingerie waifu school of design is slathered with impracticality and is largely derided by those not enamored with the tastes of the day.
A huge thread on Resetera referencing laughable character design tells us that for many, it's off-putting.
Armor so divorced from reality that it'd take a miracle to move in?
Pauldrons the size of bowling balls?

Imagine AOT but with the trends of the day in place....lol..

Form over function caps the sales potential, is the point.

*takes a deep breath*
OK. I'm going to preface this that I'm a complete outsider to Xenoblade and haven't played any of the games yet although I have Xenoblade Chronicles DE on my backlog. I might buy Xenoblade 2 eventually but my only exposure to it so far have been the armor drops in Breath of the Wild. I didn't buy Xenoblade 2 initially because the trailer to it reminded me of Guilty Crown in the worst ways. (Guilty Crown was a 2011 trainwreck of an anime)

Yes, there is what I think is acknowledged as a vocal minority that is very deeply critical about the general trends of the many ecchi anime that populate late night slots and that cater to a particular male audience. But we should remember that anime is a medium and there are many different kinds of anime that appeal to different audiences. Yuri on Ice appeals to a much different audience than Re:Zero. However, we also should seriously take those concerns and criticisms about ecchi anime because this forum aims to be more than a boys club.

Impractical armor design is certainly a pervasive problem and is not limited to anime inspired works. Tetsuya Nomura loves extremely impractical designs and I suspect working with Nomura rubbed off on Tetsuya Takahashi a little bit. Takahashi's wife, Soraya Saga, was one of the guest artists that designed Blades for Xenoblade 2 and she probably also had experience working alongside Nomura. Another designer in Xenoblade 2 was Kunihiko Tanaka, who among other things was a character designer for an anime OVA called Key, the Medal Idol. The main designer for Xenoblade 2 was of course Matsatsugu Saito, who was a character designer on the anime film Expelled from Paradise among other things.

I do remember reading through some things in Resetera and I remember reacting to their overly broad disdain for anything "anime" which again could mean anything from Studio Ghibli inspired to inspired by truly great abstract work like Kyousogiga (Rie Matsumoto is a genius, her work is awesome!) to your run of the mill uninspired ecchi dreck (looking at you, Infinite Stratos, you're my guilty pleasure but the critics are right about it) to great josei anime (chihayafuru). However, I think there is merit to the criticisms that the sexualization of the characters overshadows the deeper story of the characters themselves and that is a shame.

I disagree with the point that "form over function caps the sales potential". Final Fantasy XV which had been criticized for being very much "form over function" (as well as having some character design criticisms at the old old place) has sold 9.8 million worldwide.

As for what form Xenoblade Chronicles 3 takes, I suspect the character designs for it will probably be different from XB2 other than what characters from XB2 that would appear in it. Takahashi may take more cues from anime (like the many isekai anime that seem very popular at the moment) or maybe Monolith Soft will try to do something that appeals more to Western aesthetic tastes. I suspect that next year will reveal a lot more about what direction a XB3 would take.

 

[storres]

So pretty much the same as or maybe even below XC2's LT sales?

I'm noticing that most people are seeing the ~2M figure for XC2 in the OP and are taking it as the final lifetime sales on which predictions for XC3 are being based, and that's bogus. To lead to better-informed sales discussion I would suggest the OP to clarify that XC2 was at 2.05M back in June 2020 and has kept selling really well in digital storefronts ever since, and that the game is likely to keep selling for a long time, particularly as promotion for XC3 starts.

I think that the series will grow a bit or just stay constant with 2.

 

[Tokuiten]

I think that the series will grow a bit or just stay constant with 2.

Fair prediction, very possible. I wonder what Nintendo's reaction would be if Xenoblade 3 sales stagnated like that and only barely break 2 mio like Xenoblade 2. More investment for Xenoblade 4 in an attempt to reach more growth? Less investment because internal sales goals aren't met? Or no change because a 2 mio selling jrpg-franchise is good enough?

 

[Uniomni]

I'm going to need you to explain what you mean by "more realistic"? Do you mean more in line with real world physics, biology and what not? Do you mean by tone meaning the characters seem more naturalistic (i.e characters you'd expect from an Emile Zola novel)? Or is that a way of saying more in line with western RPGs? Zelda is a 35 year old series that has gone through many evolutions. Do you mean an action RPG with a focus on dungeons and puzzle solving or do you mean an action RPG that's non-linear and with an open world?



*takes a deep breath*
OK. I'm going to preface this that I'm a complete outsider to Xenoblade and haven't played any of the games yet although I have Xenoblade Chronicles DE on my backlog. I might buy Xenoblade 2 eventually but my only exposure to it so far have been the armor drops in Breath of the Wild. I didn't buy Xenoblade 2 initially because the trailer to it reminded me of Guilty Crown in the worst ways. (Guilty Crown was a 2011 trainwreck of an anime)

Yes, there is what I think is acknowledged as a vocal minority that is very deeply critical about the general trends of the many ecchi anime that populate late night slots and that cater to a particular male audience. But we should remember that anime is a medium and there are many different kinds of anime that appeal to different audiences. Yuri on Ice appeals to a much different audience than Re:Zero. However, we also should seriously take those concerns and criticisms about ecchi anime because this forum aims to be more than a boys club.

Impractical armor design is certainly a pervasive problem and is not limited to anime inspired works. Tetsuya Nomura loves extremely impractical designs and I suspect working with Nomura rubbed off on Tetsuya Takahashi a little bit. Takahashi's wife, Soraya Saga, was one of the guest artists that designed Blades for Xenoblade 2 and she probably also had experience working alongside Nomura. Another designer in Xenoblade 2 was Kunihiko Tanaka, who among other things was a character designer for an anime OVA called Key, the Medal Idol. The main designer for Xenoblade 2 was of course Matsatsugu Saito, who was a character designer on the anime film Expelled from Paradise among other things.

I do remember reading through some things in Resetera and I remember reacting to their overly broad disdain for anything "anime" which again could mean anything from Studio Ghibli inspired to inspired by truly great abstract work like Kyousogiga (Rie Matsumoto is a genius, her work is awesome!) to your run of the mill uninspired ecchi dreck (looking at you, Infinite Stratos, you're my guilty pleasure but the critics are right about it) to great josei anime (chihayafuru). However, I think there is merit to the criticisms that the sexualization of the characters overshadows the deeper story of the characters themselves and that is a shame.

I disagree with the point that "form over function caps the sales potential". Final Fantasy XV which had been criticized for being very much "form over function" (as well as having some character design criticisms at the old old place) has sold 9.8 million worldwide.

As for what form Xenoblade Chronicles 3 takes, I suspect the character designs for it will probably be different from XB2 other than what characters from XB2 that would appear in it. Takahashi may take more cues from anime (like the many isekai anime that seem very popular at the moment) or maybe Monolith Soft will try to do something that appeals more to Western aesthetic tastes. I suspect that next year will reveal a lot more about what direction a XB3 would take.

I personally don't feel Zelda has western inspired art direction. It's very much east Asia in origin.
The main thing separating Zelda from the masses is unassailably pristine art direction.
Which is expected, as it's a legendary series and occupies a spot on videogame Mount Rushmore.
Nintendo isn't gonna let Link be out here looking like a fool.

 

[Uniomni]

Fair prediction, very possible. I wonder what Nintendo's reaction would be if Xenoblade 3 sales stagnated like that and only barely break 2 mio like Xenoblade 2. More investment for Xenoblade 4 in an attempt to reach more growth? Less investment because internal sales goals aren't met? Or no change because a 2 mio selling jrpg-franchise is good enough?

I would hope they'd build the studio up to the point of being able to develop two games simultaneously.
Then they can keep making Xenos for the audience that buys faithfully while also appealing to those who don't care for the Xenos by dropping a new series with differing game design sensibilities.
Maybe this series can break the ceiling on 5 million.

 

[Tokuiten]

I would hope they'd build the studio up to the point of being able to develop two games simultaneously.
Then they can keep making Xenos for the audience that buys faithfully while also appealing to those who don't care for the Xenos by dropping a new series with differing game design sensibilities.
Maybe this series can break the ceiling on 5 million.

Unless things have changed, Monolith Soft long since is developing multiple (big) games at once. Xenoblade X was made by Koh Kojima's team while Takahashi was busy with Xenoblade 2. Those are their two big internal dev teams. They then have a support team that's busy on Zelda and other 1st-party titles (Splatoon, Mario Kart, etc.). And then they have an asset-team that's busy creating materials for all their games. Whether that is stil the case is something we'll only find out once it's cleared up whether the new medieval ip shows up as an (almost finished) game or didn't materialize beyond the known recruitment website.

My hope is that we'll get Xenoblade 3 next year to grow the franchise on the Switch 1's massive install base and the new medieval up the year after, exclusively for Switch 2, to introduce a new franchise that makes use of the more powerful hardware and can gain popularity from there.

 

[VengefulMagus]

Added your posting as a threadmark if that's ok

I mean maybe he doesn't mind but it's hard to have a discussion in good faith if you start highlighting opinions that only fit your own.

 

[Uniomni]

Unless things have changed, Monolith Soft long since is developing multiple (big) games at once. Xenoblade X was made by Koh Kojima's team while Takahashi was busy with Xenoblade 2. Those are their two big internal dev teams. They then have a support team that's busy on Zelda and other 1st-party titles (Splatoon, Mario Kart, etc.). And then they have an asset-team that's busy creating materials for all their games. Whether that is stil the case is something we'll only find out once it's cleared up whether the new medieval ip shows up as an (almost finished) game or didn't materialize beyond the known recruitment website.

My hope is that we'll get Xenoblade 3 next year to grow the franchise on the Switch 1's massive install base and the new medieval up the year after, exclusively for Switch 2, to introduce a new franchise that makes use of the more powerful hardware and can gain popularity from there.

I'd happily take that hope myself.
End the Xenoblade trilogy on the Switch and cut loose with something different for the Switch successors launch.
Great way of splashing

 

[Tokuiten]

I mean maybe he doesn't mind but it's hard to have a discussion in good faith if you start highlighting opinions that only fit your own.

?

I threadmarked his posting because of the more detailed sales numbers for Xenoblade 2, because I only mentioned a rounded "2 million" in the OP. I'm sorry if you thought I did it for any other reason.

I'd happily take that hope myself.
End the Xenoblade trilogy on the Switch and cut loose with something different for the Switch successors launch.
Great way of splashing

Xenoblade isn't a trilogy, though. Takahashi in 2024: "Btw, the X in Xenoblade X didn't actually stand for Cross. It's a 10. Kthxbye." ;P

 

[VengefulMagus]

?

I threadmarked his posting because of the more detailed sales numbers for Xenoblade 2, because I only mentioned a rounded "2 million" in the OP. I'm sorry if you thought I did it for any other reason.

We don't have any real data that says Xenoblade 2 will reach 3 million. Let alone that a Xenoblade 3 would have to sell more than that to surpass it.

 

[Tokuiten]

We don't have any real data that says Xenoblade 2 will reach 3 million. Let alone that a Xenoblade 3 would have to sell more than that to surpass it.

This is what I threadmarked the posting for:

To lead to better-informed sales discussion I would suggest the OP to clarify that XC2 was at 2.05M back in June 2020

 

[VengefulMagus]

This is what I threadmarked the posting for:

Alright, I admit it was a bit of an oversight not to put that in the OP. I'll give you the benefit of the doubt. I apologize if I misunderstood your intentions.

 

[Lord Azrael]

So pretty much the same as or maybe even below XC2's LT sales?

I'm noticing that most people are seeing the ~2M figure for XC2 in the OP and are taking it as the final lifetime sales on which predictions for XC3 are being based, and that's bogus. To lead to better-informed sales discussion I would suggest the OP to clarify that XC2 was at 2.05M back in June 2020 and has kept selling really well in digital storefronts ever since, and that the game is likely to keep selling for a long time, particularly as promotion for XC3 starts.

I doubt it's much higher than that right now; I'd be shocked if it hit 2.5m yet. And I also don't think it's a surefire thing that 3's sales will pass 2, especially if it's a "direct" sequel.

 

[Tokuiten]

I doubt it's much higher than that right now; I'd be shocked if it hit 2.5m yet. And I also don't think it's a surefire thing that 3's sales will pass 2, especially if it's a "direct" sequel.

I just want to address that point: The rumor that Imran Kahn shared said that Xenoblade 3 takes place in the "far" future. Here's the exact quote:

"The ending of the trilogy takes place in the far-flung future with a few returning characters who have long-outlived their human counterparts from both Xenoblade Chronicles and Xenoblade Chronicles 2. This is why Coleman, who plays Melia, would be aware of a third game, as her character is returning and she more than likely has recorded voice acting for it."

Source: https://www.nintendolife.com/news/2021/08/xenoblade_chronicles_3_rumours_intensify

Of course, Xenoblade 3 will be a "direct" sequel to Xenoblade 2, but that doesn't mean that playing the first two games is required. I don't want to spoil Xenoblade 2, but a few specific characters returning, living unnaturally long, makes sense for the story, but it's more about what it opens up in terms of new plot threads, rather than continuing old threads. Example in spoiler:

Spoiler

The mentioned character Melia has no unfinished business in Xenoblade 1 nor Future Connected. Should she reappear in Xenoblade 3, it would be for a whole new adventure. The things that happened in Xenoblade 1 would simply be "lore" at that point, but you don't need to know all these details for enjoying Xenoblade 3 where they'd probably introduce her as a "High-Entia queen" that came from a place called Bionis and has some special connection with entities called "Telethias". That's if she's even that involved in the main cast.

As you can see, being a direct sequel doesn't necessarily mean that new players wouldn't know what's going on in the 3rd game. I could go into detail about why it's even easier to have Pyra/Mythra in Xenoblade 3 without confusing any new players, but I think most Xenoblade-fans understand that themselves without me typing it out.

Anyway, lots of words to say something simple: Xenoblade 3 being a direct sequel imo won't hurt the game at all thanks to the conclusive nature of each individual Xenoblade-entry.

 

[roseandcigaret]

Pokemon is special, so there's no sense comparing anything else to it. The Dragon Ball games are all licensed games attached to a genuinely legendary, beloved, and iconic bestselling manga and anime series, so comparisons to it are likewise tough. Dragon Quest isn't popular outside Japan; it is niche. It typically struggled to a million units in the west, which it did thrice (the original, thanks to Nintendo giving tons of copies away, VIII, as Square had the good sense to bundle the highly desirable Final Fantasy XII demo with it, and IX, when the DS was white hot.) More recently, XII is closing in on two million units sold outside Japan, but that took well over three years worth of time, ports to every platform under the sun, huge price cuts, and an S re-release. I'd argue the art style (Toriyama or no) and turn based combat hurt it.

I wouldn't put it all on art, no, but art is a big part of it. Two other things that hurt JRPGs in general are turn-based combat, rather than action, and a linear story, rather than open world.

Dark Souls is a bad example, as the third installment has sold over ten million units, as of March 2020, with most of that coming from outside Japan. It has action combat, and a non-anime art style. Monster Hunter World is another example of a Japanese game that broke out big, selling over twenty million, combining the original game and the Master edition. It has action combat and a non-anime art style.

Monster Hunter World is an interesting example just because of the willingness of Capcom to mix things up. Obviously hard to compare due to being a different genre and jumping over to different systems, but still

Xenoblade 2 didn't have a huge budget (made by 40 staff internally, rest was outsourced) and it became a 2+ mio seller in a genre that has trouble breaking just 1 mio. Nintendo was and is thrilled.

As for the rest of your postings, I find them decidedly bizarre. Your argument is so hyper-capitalistic that I cannot follow it. "Games shouldn't have anime designs, because anime limits its sales appeal." Even if that was true (it's not, massively popular anime exist), it'd mean giving up any creative vision and just building a game by elements that happen to sell better. That's such an awful, scary thought-process. Imagine DaVinci showd the Mona Lisa to someone and was told 'hm, it's ok, but you should put a hat on her head, hats are popular, the painting will sell for a higher price that way.'.

Yours is such a total sell-out philosophy that I have to accept as a valid point, but that I personally don't want to explore. Sacrificing the core of one's creative vision for maximizing sales is, imo, a very toxic attitude that is at fault for things like horse armor dlc, mtx and nfts. Please don't take any of what I wrote as a personal attack, I just fundamentally disagree with your thought pattern.

Nintendo outsources a massive amount of work, that doesn't mean Xenoblade 2 was a "small" project.

You are jumping to conclusions. I never said anime designs can't be used, I said that if certain anime tropes are heavily emphasized it will likely limit the sales of the next entry. I don't personally care if the games remain the same or deviate- I like Xenoblade 2. But it's clear some of the conventions based on anime will turn off a lot of new users. Hell, even a turn based system arguably does for some. Or a battle system that has a complicated set of options. There are a variety of factors and I don't think it's sacrilege to suggest that there may be ways that may make a Xenoblade 3 better sell.

The second part of your post is way off the rails, I never said that it's purely the art style, just a part of it. I like the art style. But as is, if it is a similar looking game, I would suspect Xenoblade 3 would perform close to 2. Of course we know nothing about Xenoblade 3 right now

For all we know there may be large departures from previous entries. Who knows. It wouldn't necessarily be a good or bad thing but I do think change is necessary sometimes to grab the eyes of new audiences, even if only small adjustments