Don't forget Pokemon Home integration in the future.
What is the true sales potential of Pokémon Legends: Arceus ?
- Thread starter Lelouch0612
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Yeah, that's the one downside from having an expansion pass instead of a third version. I guess we'll have to wait a few years to see if Gen 9 will get DLCs.
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- #53
GEO, big Japanese retailer, seems bullish on it :
"This week, Pokemon Brilliant Diamond / Shining Pearl dominates 1st to 3rd place. It is a big favourite title of the year-end sales season and sales are almost the same as Pokemon Sword / Shield that released two years ago, which was expected and we are paying attention to the number of sales in the future. Pokemon Legends: Arceus is scheduled to go on sale in January next year and expectations for this title are even higher"
I don't think we'll ever be going back to a third version. maybe they'll change up how the DLC will be from the SS Expansion pass, but a separate sku like the old third versions? that's passé
Ok, my expectations just went up a notch. In any case Arceus will be huge.
Now this is a thread I've been waiting to see. I don't have any specific predictions because it feels like there are a lot of currently unknown factors (What will the game's reception be like? Will the game have DLC? When is the next mainline game after Legends planned to release?). I think this is going to be an interesting subject to follow.
Let's Go, Pikachu and Let's Go, Eevee are at 14 million. Sword and Shield are at 23 million. My minimum for Arceus is 16 million...my maximum, 21 million.
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I think people that play Pokemon multiplayer are a very small minority compared to the people that just play the single player mode and are finished with the game afterwards.
I have to wonder how word-of-mouth and long-term sales will be affected as more and more people begin to realize (upon playing the game) that it's not Pokémon's take on a seamless open world, where you can "go anywhere" and feel like you actually live in that world, with a bunch of systems and sub-systems dynamically interacting with one another (a la Breath of the Wild, Xenoblade X, Elden Ring etc.)
I suppose it's hard to say, because even with sectioned-off areas that you visit within a mission-based structure, they could still be large enough to scratch that itch. SMT5 isn't an open-world game, but it's so far beyond anything that has come before in terms of exploration that it definitely feels wide and sandbox-y. And given that it's such a major leap forward for Pokémon in general, I could see a lot of people taking a chance on Legends purely out of curiosity if nothing else.
I thought long and hard about what to vote for in the poll and...I just don't know. I have a hard time envisioning a world where this sells less than the 3DS games, just because it's being marketed as an open-world Pokémon game on the Nintendo Switch. That's an enticing prospect.
So, I guess we're saying at least 16 million and above? Especially considering that trading is still in the game, even if multiplayer isn't.
I suppose it's hard to say, because even with sectioned-off areas that you visit within a mission-based structure, they could still be large enough to scratch that itch. SMT5 isn't an open-world game, but it's so far beyond anything that has come before in terms of exploration that it definitely feels wide and sandbox-y. And given that it's such a major leap forward for Pokémon in general, I could see a lot of people taking a chance on Legends purely out of curiosity if nothing else.
I thought long and hard about what to vote for in the poll and...I just don't know. I have a hard time envisioning a world where this sells less than the 3DS games, just because it's being marketed as an open-world Pokémon game on the Nintendo Switch. That's an enticing prospect.
So, I guess we're saying at least 16 million and above? Especially considering that trading is still in the game, even if multiplayer isn't.
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Really hard to predict. I went with 12-15 million but I wouldn't be surprised at more or less. I think the biggest question is will it retain the usual pokemon audience, add a new audience, lose a bit of the traditional audience or some combination of the three? This is the first spinoff that for the mosst part is at least retaining most of the original gameplay so comparing to spinoffs (whether you consider it one or mainline) isn't going to help here. I think there's also still a bit of confusion on how it plays from a story point aside from that it's mission based.
Personally speaking I'm excited about it because it is different from usual pokemon and I'm not that attached to the Pokemon formula.
Personally speaking I'm excited about it because it is different from usual pokemon and I'm not that attached to the Pokemon formula.
I'm curious how many people are voting for lifetime sales instead of 2022, particularly because the thread title don't really match the poll title. An extra 2m or so in the remaining years will more than likely make a difference to your choice.
Anyways I'm in the camp that this is a title that will do good enough but sales absolutely won't explode as I believe GF simply didn't do enough. I assume this engine is truly meant for a part of Gen 9's gameplay, which GF just decided to take advantage of by making a game fully around it for extra money while learning and continuing to enhance it for Gen 9.
Anyways I'm in the camp that this is a title that will do good enough but sales absolutely won't explode as I believe GF simply didn't do enough. I assume this engine is truly meant for a part of Gen 9's gameplay, which GF just decided to take advantage of by making a game fully around it for extra money while learning and continuing to enhance it for Gen 9.
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Seems highly likely, especially if they add alot more meaty stuff to it to really feel like a third version.
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It is interesting to see that some many people expect it to sell worse than Pokémon BD/SP.
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I think they’re too afraid that being more different than usual will be an obstacle. In reality it’s hard to believe they would even greenlight a project like this if they didn’t think it would sell more than an outsourced, almost 1:1 remake of an old DS title. It’s a big and expensive game to make
It could be that GF and TPC were at odds. GF wanted to do something different, TPC wanted something safe, so the compromise was to do both.
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What Game Freak thinks and what reality is don't necessarily match. They can't predict the future better than any of us here.
(Though I am one of the people that think Legends will outsell BDSP lol)
Game Freak doesn't answer to TPC, the other way around, actually
Gen 9 is likely already well in development, so the implementation of Legends-like elements would not be a reaction to the sales results of Legends. Nonetheless, I wouldn't be surprised to see it happen a bit further down the line.
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Legends might very well launch almost 2 full years before Gen 9. I am sure they'll be able to take some gameplay elements into the next game and/or tone them down/up depending on the reception.
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Sticking with 12-15 million for now but this month’s presumed marketing push is going to ultimately determine my opinions on this matter.
The word "potential" makes the estimates in here a little low. The sales potential of Pokemon of the Wild is off the charts.
It will probably fall well short of that though because things that look too good to be true on paper usually are.
Potentially, it could merge the BOTW and Pokemon audience in an absolute sales blockbuster in perhaps the most fully realised Pokemon game ever... but in reality the traditional Pokemon crowd will probably slightly veer away from it because of its different approach.
It will probably fall well short of that though because things that look too good to be true on paper usually are.
Potentially, it could merge the BOTW and Pokemon audience in an absolute sales blockbuster in perhaps the most fully realised Pokemon game ever... but in reality the traditional Pokemon crowd will probably slightly veer away from it because of its different approach.
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- #76
Big overview trailer.
I'll say this, it has been a while I didn't see Pokémon fans being looking forward that much to a game. Nice change of pace and curious to see the game's performance in the coming weeks/months.
No idea but I am wondering if it might be hot by the success of the remakes.
This looks much better than the previous trailers.
Got that last minute graphics boost.
I'm starting to get vibes like this will be seen as the dream Pokemon game
27 (TWENTY SEVEN) million lifetime.
Go big or go home.
27 (TWENTY SEVEN) million lifetime.
Go big or go home.
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Hopefully there will be a Pokémon Presents before launch. This Overview trailer showed (mostly?) old/known scenes..
I don't need more to buy the game and i kinda don't want to know much more but it still feels like they haven't shown much.
A 10-15min video of uncut exploring and presenting the/a gameplay loop would be great.
I don't need more to buy the game and i kinda don't want to know much more but it still feels like they haven't shown much.
A 10-15min video of uncut exploring and presenting the/a gameplay loop would be great.
This only works for the usual duo of games
Yes, but it also isn't the same kind of game as GF's others. Has a good deal of things going for and against it
Your broader point is absolutely correct, but I just wanted to point out that, in the six months between April 1st and October 1st 2021, LGPE sold 260k units (rising to 13.83M), and ORAS sold 70k (rising to 14.46M), meaning that it is not yet impossible for either game to clear 15M in its lifetime.
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LGPE released on Switch.
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I can see LGPE getting to 15m but i doubt ORAS will get there.
it will be marketed as the Breath of the Wild of Pokémon games and will sell about 20m
Pokemon is bigger than Zelda though... this is why I'm (probably being overly) bullish.
I would imagine this is the Pokemon game that Pokefans have dreamed of. It could be this years Animal Crossing (well not quite because that was more of a beneficiary of Covid).
absolutely agree that Pokémon is bigger than Zelda.
the difference is that Zelda is a highly praised cultural masterpiece that expands imagination to something bigger than the sum of its parts for to witness an experience beyond limits, and Pokémon is a highly addictive toy with nutri score E.
Graphics are better but the main thing will be the gameplay and the gameplay loop.
I am usually a bigger fan of Pokemon spinoff games then the mainline games so i am optimistic for this new entry.
I hope there will be a demo and mostly i hope the game will be fun to play with these new mechanics!
I am usually a bigger fan of Pokemon spinoff games then the mainline games so i am optimistic for this new entry.
I hope there will be a demo and mostly i hope the game will be fun to play with these new mechanics!
When was the last time there was a mainline pokemon demo?
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- #99
Before launch, Sun/Moon.
After launch, Let's Go.