That's 5/5/10/5
Sony Q4 FY3/2023 Financial Results - HW: 6.3M (+215% YoY, FCT surpassed!) ; SW: 68M (-4% YoY) [Edit: Business meeting !]
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Finally,After next 2 quarters, we probably won't talk about residual demand anymore and we'll probably see where it should be, maybe,...
PS5 pro coming to bring back shortages
It is not. The amount of consoles shipped this quarter was humongeous and anyone with knowledge of past successes in the industry were rightfully skeptical when Sony announced their goals. Of course, anyone would have agreed with a prevision in the 5M to 5.5M range but Sony came up with something beyond that. And they topped that lofty goal by 100k.
Of course, any hardware number can be reached with channel stuffing. Sony could simply be stockpiling consoles in warehouses but that has a cost too which is why I assume they didn't abuse that 'tactics'.
Nintendo and Sony have different accounting methods. They cannot be compared.
I imagine it'll be this one because of Spider-Man 2 and the revision. Though I have my doubts they'll hit 25M but we'll see, I also didn't expect them to hit 19M this year...
That said if they launch a Pro version in 2024, together with a price cut for the regular model, maybe next year will be the peak. Edit: GTAVI might be next FY as well
I assume that's the intention when they launch the revision.
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I knew the next goal post would be "but muh overshipping". This is so predictable. I've explained it multiple times before how the sell through should also be close to 6M for the quarter but people just don't want to listen.
Don't worry if my estimations are correct, we should get the next sell through milestone by June.
Don't worry if my estimations are correct, we should get the next sell through milestone by June.
FFVII Rebirth should be another big one, assuming it can make the FY.
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Absolutely gigantic quarter, PS5 made up 3.9 million on PS4 and only trails by 1.8 million. Sony forecast a massive 25 million for the current FY which is 5 million more than PS4's FY 2016/17 so they expect PS5 to be around 3 million above PS4 by this time next year.
PS5 had the best 2nd full fiscal year of any Playstation console and if they can hit their target in FY3 it will be another record for a Playstation console and will only be behind DS which had a 30.31 million FY3.
* Q4 remaining, forecast to ship 18 million
PS5 had the best 2nd full fiscal year of any Playstation console and if they can hit their target in FY3 it will be another record for a Playstation console and will only be behind DS which had a 30.31 million FY3.
* Q4 remaining, forecast to ship 18 million
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From modiz on Era:
According to Sony projections they should be launching 5 GAAS until March 2024, though I think that seems unlikely at this point since they also planned to release 2 GAAS until March 2023 and that didn't happen.
According to Sony projections they should be launching 5 GAAS until March 2024, though I think that seems unlikely at this point since they also planned to release 2 GAAS until March 2023 and that didn't happen.
What astonished me about the bet was that it was a 9x payout (e.g. bet 100 and end up with 1000, a +900 gain) which is like those days when the bookie is absolutely wasted. To think with such a massive payout and much, much better than a 1-in-9 chance that nearly everyone would be on one side of the bet, but bafflingly almost half the betters decided to take absolutely terrible odds for an even worse potential payout.
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The potential gains were similar, it is just that the wager cap was way higher on the "high-odds" event.
So the "cap" for the two sides wasn't even? A lot of people may have lost even more than 100 points? That just makes it even more baffling since you are risking much more if that is the case.
No, it's the biggest CY Q1 (January-March) ever. The Switch shipped 6.86M in CY Q3 2020. I think the DS also shipped more than 6.3M several times in different Q2s and Q3s.
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Bungie cost $3.7B and the USD has strengthened against all currencies
Operating income decreased 96.1 billion yen year-on-year to 250.0 billion yen. This significant decrease was primarily due to an increase in costs, mainly for game software development and expenses associated with acquisitions completed in the current fiscal year including Bungie, Inc.*, in addition to the impact of the above-mentioned decrease in sales of non-first-party titles. This decrease in operating income was partially offset by the impact of the above-mentioned increase in sales of first-party titles as well as a decrease in losses from hardware. During the current fiscal year, there was a 32.4 billion yen negative impact from foreign exchange rate fluctuations.
* 52.7 billion yen was recorded as expenses associated with acquisitions completed in the current fiscal year. For details regarding the acquisition of Bungie, Inc., please refer to pages F-21 and F-22
NOTE: sorry I don't understand how to post a picture with a good quality on IB.
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In other betting news, given the IDG estimates and the lack of mention of PSVR2 in the financial report, everyone predicting sub-1m won the bet 
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Biggest Q4 (Jan to Mar) quarter ever beating the 5.81 million set by DS in 2008.
All quarterly data up to FY9 from high selling consoles, taken from Nintendo and Sony's financial reports.
Note: The FY8, FY9 and lifetime total for PSP are not official, they are estimations.
Launch aligned quarterly sales from 100 million selling consoles
All quarterly data up to FY9 from high selling consoles, taken from Nintendo and Sony's financial reports.
Note: The FY8, FY9 and lifetime total for PSP are not official, they are estimations.
Launch aligned quarterly sales from 100 million selling consoles
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Although the numbers are probably higher than would have otherwise been if demand was met during the initial two years...6.3M is still absolutely massive and we know that software pipeline hasn't yet hit its stride so this all bides well for the PS5 in the long term.
Full game software unit sales went down from 70.5 million to 68 million (-3.5%), with first party unit sales falling even harder than that.
Despite that, their revenue from physical and digital sales combined went up by almost 10%, even though the digital unit ratio didn't change.
That just shows you the impact that a massive, full price, AAA release (Hogwarts Legacy) has! Looks like they can keep this momentum up for the rest of the year, too, between FFXVI and upcoming Sony's 1P lineup.
Despite that, their revenue from physical and digital sales combined went up by almost 10%, even though the digital unit ratio didn't change.
That just shows you the impact that a massive, full price, AAA release (Hogwarts Legacy) has! Looks like they can keep this momentum up for the rest of the year, too, between FFXVI and upcoming Sony's 1P lineup.
I witnessed a "soft relaunch" months ago and I think I was right: the new actual "free availability" of the hardware after years of shorgtages opened the gates tomany customers waiting for the item to be available
this, considering no hardwre revision and even a price increase in the vast majority (?) of the markets is a very strong result!
congrats to PS5!
I'm curious to see how the sales curve will appear, in a couple of years: COVID and consequent shortages really changed its "normal" pacing!
this, considering no hardwre revision and even a price increase in the vast majority (?) of the markets is a very strong result!
congrats to PS5!
I'm curious to see how the sales curve will appear, in a couple of years: COVID and consequent shortages really changed its "normal" pacing!
It's +1000 in Vegas odds, not +900, since your bet gets returned to you, too.
When people think something is a sure deal, they have a tendency to put money in without hedging appropriately.
Great numbers for how little compelling software there is.
Continues to prove modern PS/Xbox console sales are driven from mainstream consumers wanting a 'Fifa/Madden/COD/occasional Western AAA' box and not much more.
Continues to prove modern PS/Xbox console sales are driven from mainstream consumers wanting a 'Fifa/Madden/COD/occasional Western AAA' box and not much more.
...what exactly is your basis for "little compelling software"? Plenty of critically acclaimed games have come out recently.
What do you expect for this quarter? Q1 is usually bigger than Q4 but it’s hard to guess as last quarter was the first time PS5 was in supply. I think minimum 5M based on their FY23 forecast.
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With Spidey 2 they can afford a lot of shipments later in the year making up for a slower start, so anything 4M+ for this next quarter keeps the forecast on track. That being said especially with the FF16 bundle towards the end of the Q they're probably expecting ~5M.
Diablo, Star Wars, SF6 & Final Fantasy XVI all come out this quarter. Q2 will include Spider-Man 2 and presumably the new model launch.
I gotta say maybe my 125 million lifetime for PS5 might be too low. Sony expecting 25 million out the gate is crazy. 25 million puts only DS ahead launch aligned. So let's think about its potential future then. With 25 million in it's 3rd fiscal year, then 22 million in it's 4th, 19 in its 5th, 15 in its 6th. It might just hit 140+, that is far higher than anyone expected. Who knows what Sony has planned for it but I'm not sure if we aren't looking at another PS2 challenger. Wouldn't that be something, Switch and PS5 both aiming for PS2s crown.
Edit: The reason why this might be a potential PS2 challenger is because my predictions don't really include Sony doing anything. Price cuts and revisions would raise these figures.
Edit: The reason why this might be a potential PS2 challenger is because my predictions don't really include Sony doing anything. Price cuts and revisions would raise these figures.
Some interesting analysis here to counter-balance the positivity.
The delayed adoption of the PS5, which launched in late 2020 but has been limited by production challenges, is showing signs of hampering Sony’s ability to monetize the hardware through higher-margin software and subscriptions. Game sales in the latest quarter were down to 68 million units from 70.5 million in the same period a year earlier. The company reported operating profit of ¥128.5 billion.
“Sales of the hardware are increasing on par with Sony’s plan, but the momentum of software, the lucrative part of the game business, remains weak. This shows PlayStation users are not buying new games,” said Hideki Yasuda, an analyst at Toyo Securities.
SNIP
“On the software side, Sony has a lot of work to do,” said industry analyst Serkan Toto. “Everybody is waiting for PlayStation mobile and live-service games: Where are they?”
The delayed adoption of the PS5, which launched in late 2020 but has been limited by production challenges, is showing signs of hampering Sony’s ability to monetize the hardware through higher-margin software and subscriptions. Game sales in the latest quarter were down to 68 million units from 70.5 million in the same period a year earlier. The company reported operating profit of ¥128.5 billion.
“Sales of the hardware are increasing on par with Sony’s plan, but the momentum of software, the lucrative part of the game business, remains weak. This shows PlayStation users are not buying new games,” said Hideki Yasuda, an analyst at Toyo Securities.
SNIP
“On the software side, Sony has a lot of work to do,” said industry analyst Serkan Toto. “Everybody is waiting for PlayStation mobile and live-service games: Where are they?”
It’s more impressive since most 1st and 3rd party games have been cross-gen.
But it’s very very possible the trend will change this year when most developers will start making PS5 only games.
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Keep in mind that Sony is combining PS4 and PS5 software sales.
I do understand that, but the PS4 has been in decline from about 3-4 years now. And there are not too many PS5 only games. By March 2016, more than 90% of the PS4 catalog was PS4 only games (1st party) or PS4/Xbone (3rd party).
We are still in 2023 and a lot of developers are still doing cross-gen games.
When it comes to software I'm of the opinion that analysts were fooled by the COVID boost in 2020/2021 and that's why we saw the conversation revolving around Sony breaking the generational cycle. This is just a relative return to normalcy where software sales drop at the end of a lifecycle and take time to build in the next one.
Software revenue is significantly higher this FY though, despite the lower amount of units.
And the difference doesn't come from MTX, but mostly from physical/digital sales. People are buying less games but spending more money.
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A comparison to their only competitor might be interesting. If we just look at what Xbox defines as "Content & Services", Xbox is at roughly $3.1B for the quarter, while Playstation is at roughly $4.1B for the quarter. Considering that Xbox is viewed as a failure, while Playstation is viewed as a massive success, that gap isn't really big enough to reflect that. So I can see why Sony might be slightly disappointed with the software numbers, it feels like Playstation should have much higher software revenue.
Caveat: I wasn't sure what to do with the "others" section from Playstation's report. As I understand, that's accessories and probably PSVR2, but it might also include PC games? So the $4.1B might be a slight underestimate. The main point would still stand, imo.
4-5M, largely depending on how much PS5 sells in June since that's when a slate of big releases will launch (FFXVI, Diablo, SF6). April and May will definitely be slower months.
Makes sense since PS5 software is gradually accounting for a bigger share of overall PlayStation software sales while being more expensive than PS4 software.Software revenue is significantly higher this FY though, despite the lower amount of units.
And the difference doesn't come from MTX, but mostly from physical/digital sales. People are buying less games but spending more money.
Inflation also plays a pretty big role here.