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So, one of the burning question in the gaming world over the past years has been about the Nintendo Switch successor, and when it will release. Honestly I don't know either, but I believe we can deduce from Nintendo's strategy over the past years, which timeframe they will be targetting.

First of all, I run an analysis on the big games Nintendo released over the past years. I took the bigger releases, those that are strategically placed for each fiscal years, whereas other releases can be most easily shuffled around to fill up the release schedule.

The idea was to see, that for these 10m+ sellers from established franchises, whether there were patterns:



Each franchise/sub-franchise has its own color schemes and I used MC weekly naming scheme.

Let's talk of the obvious first:

• There's a clear pattern on Week 46 with 4 Pokémon releases. Only Arceus released at a different time.
• Mario Party games all release on October, which is also confirmed by Jamboree, but not at the same week.
• The new Mario games are also October releases
• Both Splatoon games are Summer releases and 3 might have targetted the same splot than S2 before the XC3 swap.
• Therefore, we can argue that some franchises have their preferred spots.

There's also another concentration on Week 17 but only 2 releases can easily be a coincidence, unless...

Week 17 or Golden Week, was chosen for 3 big releases

Indeed, one of the most recent development for Nintendo in terms of handling their big releases is that they release limited hardware two weeks before. We saw that with games like Pokémon, Splatoon 3 or Tears of the Kingdom.

Therefore, if Tears of the Kingdom released on May 12th, it was because of the start of Golden Week two weeks before!

Unconvinced that Nintendo would take Golden Week into account to set the release date of a worlwide hit like Tears of the Kingdom?

Well, the Zelda OLED launched like all Nintendo related things on Friday,April 28th ... at the exception of Japan where it launched on a Saturday, the 29th, which coincided with the start of Golden Week!

The Nintendo Switch – OLED Model - The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom Edition will be available on April 29th, 2023, at a manufacturer's suggested retail price of 38,980 yen (including tax) *

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To conclude !

Well, I think we can all agree that Nintendo has placed their key titles around 3 prefered spots over the Switch era (Golden Week, October for Mario and Week 46 for Pokémon). In opposition with the last two spots, the first one was used by different franchises which means that it is not a franchise-specific spot whereas we can argue it for October and Week 46.

Given the reports about Nintendo carefully planning their Switch 2 launch, they are probably using one of the spot they are confortable with.

Therefore, I genuinely believe Switch 2 has a good chance of being launched on 2025's Golden Week. Using Tears of the Kingdom as an example, it might even mean a Tuesday launch in Japan.

So what do you think? Am I unto something? Will Nintendo chose that window for its next console?

Projected U.S. spending on video game hardware, content and accessories totaled $4.6B in June 2024, falling 5% when compared to a year ago. First half spending grew 1% compared to the first half of 2023, reaching $27.3B.

*Mobile spending provided by Sensor Tower

*Mobile spending provided by Sensor Tower
June video game hardware spending fell 37% when compared to a year ago, to $287M, and finished 1H 2024 31% lower vs.YA. During the first half of 2024 Switch hardware spending was 48% lower than YA, while PlayStation 5 declined by 28%, and Xbox Series fell 18%.

PlayStation 5 again led the month’s hardware market in unit and dollar sales. Nintendo Switch once again finished 2nd in unit sales, while Xbox Series ranked 2nd in dollars. These same rankings were reflected across 2024’s total first half.
Elden Ring was the best-selling video game of June 2024, returning to the top spot on the best-selling titles chart for the first time since it led the market during the May 2022 period. Sales of Elden Ring were boosted by the release of the Shadow of the Erdtree expansion.

The release of the Kingdom Hearts Integrum Masterpiece collection on Steam helped it reach 3rd on the June 2024 best-selling titles chart. It previously had been available only on Switch via Cloud.

The Elder Scrolls: Online jumped from 198th in May to 18th in June helped by the launch of The Elder Scrolls Online: Gold Road, while Street Fighter 6 finished at #20 in June after placing 72nd on the May chart driven in part by promotional pricing.

PS5 slightly edged out Steam as the lead platform for Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance.
Sensor Tower: Top 10 mobile games by U.S. consumer spend in June and rank change vs May: MONOPOLY GO!, Royal Match, Roblox, Candy Crush Saga, Last War: Survival, Whiteout Survival (+1), Coin Master (-1), Brawl Stars (+1), Township (-1) and Pokémon GO (+4).

“The year over year trend continues, with US mobile gaming spending up 12% comparing June 2024 to June 2023, though spend is down 3% over May 2024,” said Samuel Aune of Sensor Tower. “The rankings for the top five remain unchanged month over month."

"Although its rank didn't change, Roblox saw a 15% increase in revenue month over month... driven by a UA campaign spiking downloads 22% and active users," said Aune. "Also, Pokémon GO saw a 22% increase in revenue month over month coinciding with its 8th anniversary event."
June spending on Accessories fell 7% when compared to a year ago, to $204M. Growth in the Remote Play Device segment (PlayStation Portal) was offset by a 9% drop in Gamepads.

The PS5 Dual Sense Wireless Controller Midnight Black was June’s best-selling accessory, while PlayStation Portal led accessories in dollar sales across 2024’s first half.
* Digital sales not included
^ Digital sales on Nintendo and Xbox platforms not included
* Digital sales not included
** Apr-Jun Digital sale not included
^ Digital sales on Nintendo and Xbox platforms not included

* Digital sales not included
*Includes Call of Duty: Warzone 2.0, Call of Duty: Modern Warfare II, and Call of Duty: Modern Warfare III activity
*Includes Call of Duty: Warzone 2.0, Call of Duty: Modern Warfare II, and Call of Duty: Modern Warfare III activity

Rankings
Units: PS5 > NSW > XBS
Revenue: PS5 > XBS > NSW

Updates
PS5 Units - Digital Edition = 40% of June sales, 36% YTD
XBS Units - Series X = 54% of June sales, 54% YTD

Thanks Mat Piscatella!

NPD Archives

With recent reports of the Switch 2 releasing in March 2025 at the earliest (Nikkei), semi-confirmed by Nintendo's forecast (an aggressive 13.5m for Switch 1 during the FY) and communication in early May (Switch 2 news this FY but not at the June Direct), it is the time to follow up the first thread on Switch's transition and momentum.


This is the second part of a bigger series. Today we will try to answer the following question : how can Nintendo maintain the brand's momentum when most of their workforce is focused on making games for the successor ?

General context

The current FY has been forecasted with a small decrease for Nintendo Switch sales, from 15.7M to 13.5M (-14%). This is a challenging forecast, especially since no game of the Zelda/Mario/Pokémon caliber has been announced yet. Tears of the Kingdom was a big driver of Switch sales last FY. This is paving the way for the Switch to eventually surpass the PS2 (160M) as the best-selling console of all-times.

On a broader view, 2024 is a challenging year for the industry, marked by struggling publishers with rounds and rounds of layoffs whereas Xbox is fighting to find its own identity and reigniting interest on the brand. Playstation 5 is nonetheless doing good to great but the FY will not be a busy one for PS Studio in terms of output and hardware declines are expected by Sony despite the rumored launch of a new model (PS5 Pro).

Lastly, Grand Theft Auto VI has recently been set for a Fall 2025 release and won't disrupt the current FY.

In this context, there are ways for Nintendo to keep momentum around their IPs and Switch brand :

1. Games, obviously
2. Audiovisual / mobile content
3. Bundles, price promotions ... and a new revision ?

Potential Nintendo Switch games

When it comes to the upcoming Switch release schedule, let's resume the facts:

• There are 3 Switch games dated, all between May and July (Paper Mario, LM2 HD and NES WC)
• There are two other Switch games announced, Metroid Prime 4 (TBD) and Pokémon Legends Z-A (2025)
• Nintendo's president announced the company would be holding a Nintendo Direct in June, its first of the year.

Given the upcoming launch of the successor and Nintendo's current output, it seems like there is a clear pattern of what games they deem fit to release at this point of the Switch lifecycle. The games are mostly externally developped, not graphic intensive showcase/not laser focused on the core audience, and are mostly remakes.

Let's think of their options in that context:



Probably the IP with the highest potential that still didn't make its way on the Switch. It has been more than a decade since the release of Tomodachi Life. It was a top 10 best-selling game on 3DS with over 6,7M units sold. The audience is there and has been expanded with the smashing success of Animal Crossing: New Horizons. It could be a great Holiday release.



Another big IP missing a new game on Switch is Donkey Kong. There have been multiple reports of Nintendo trying to find a home for the big Ape, with little success. It seems like they have taken things in their own hands with EPD Tokyo (the usual 3D Mario team) recruiting for a 2D game. The franchise will also be on the spotlight this year with the opening of dedicated section in Nintendo's World, Nintendo's own amusement park. Coul be another great Holiday release.

Metroid Prime 4 is a tricky question since it doesn't fit the profile of games mentioned before. Some could argue that it could be a great cross-gen release and it will ultimately depend on what Nintendo has in store for the Switch 2 launch. Still, the game has been rebooted in Late 2018 (with an official announcement in January 2019) and should be very close to completion. Metroid Prime 1 HD also showed how good the game could look on Switch 1 too.


Lastly, they could release more remakes/remasters as those can be easily outsourced and developped more quickly than full blown games. They are multiple options on the table :

• Fire Emblem Remake, as Shadow of Valentia was a 2017 release.​
• Zelda remasters like Wind Waker and Twilight Princess which are amongst the few games that were not ported from the WiiU​
• Metroid Prime 2 & 3 ? In case MP4 isn't for this year.​
• Bandai Namco is working on a Nintendo remake, is it the right time for it ?​
• Remasters/remakes of dormant franchises like Star Fox, Golden Sun or F-Zero ?​
• Pokémon Remakes ? 2024 looks to be another off year for the franchise, or is it ?​

These remasters/remakes don't have the same level of potential, ranging from 1m to 15m but could provide a nice swan song for the Switch.

Audiovisual / mobile content

Nintendo also have the option to rely on mobile (like in in 2016 with the GO craze) to keep its brand power up during the transition. As such we can mention the upcoming Pokémon TCG mobile release that should generate excitement and millions of downloads.



Still, GO isn't something you can expect to replicate and it seems like Nintendo has other plans. Indeed, in the recent financial briefing, and following the acquisition of Nintendo Pictures, they admitted to be working on audiovisual content beyond the theatrical releases. Could be expect a show or any kind of content to be released this year based on Nintendo IPs ? There are countless examples of big boosts following such releases (Witcher, Mario, TLOU, Fallout...).

Bundles, price promotions ... and a new revision ?

This year we will need to implement various initiatives to sell the forecasted number ofNintendo Switch. During last year's holiday season, we sold hardware bundled with software, and we also conveyed the appeal of having multiple units of Nintendo Switch in a household. We plan to implement various initiatives to approach 13.5 million units of sales in the current fiscal year as well.

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The 13.5m forecast for the Switch this FY is challenging and Nintendo mentioned how it could reach that number. One of the key strategy is to increase the number of Switch per households by catering to families and kids. How could they convince people that didn't jump in yet ?

• By lowering the entry barrier​
• Offering a new value proposition​

There are multiple ways Nintendo could try to lower the entry barrier. The thing to keep in mind is that you don't want to devalue your product when the successor is near, Switch maintained its launch price in Japan/US for so long after all. Therefore, they use of bundles and temporary price cuts (during the Holidays) could be the way to go. Options like a definitive price cut and/or a Select line doesn't make much sense before the successor release (after is another topic altogether).



Lastly, Nintendo will want to speak to this audience today and after the successor's release, which will probably be too pricey initially for kids and most families. In the past, this has often translated to the release of a cheaper revision at the tail end of the system life :



A new revision definitely could help Nintendo to reach its target while expanding its audience to families and kids. If the strategy is to increase the number of Switch per household is it going to build on the main model (like the 3DS) or the cheaper one ? Is 2024 the right timing for a revision or is better for after the Switch 2 launch ?

To conclude, it does seem like 2024 is going to be a big transition year for Nintendo, and as such needs to be managed well to keep interest around the brand and its ecosystem high while we wait for the Switch 2. However, the competion struggles and the overall 2024 release schedule is giving them enough air to exist. The upcoming June Direct will shed the light on their plans for 2024 and will tell how easily their upcoming games will generate sales and hype without taking away from what could be Switch 2 launch window games. They have ways beyond games to deliver (2016 was a great example of that between the 3DS, Go and the NES Mini) so it will be interesting to see how things will unfold.

In light of all that, how do you think Nintendo is going to balance things out between the need to keep the momentum going and the will to push as hard as possible the Switch successor ?

BREAKING: Sony Interactive Entertainment (PlayStation) will replace former boss Jim Ryan with two new CEOs: Hermen Hulst (CEO of studios) and Hideaki Nishino (CEO of platforms), both reporting to Chairman Hiroki Totoki, company says. Effective June 1.

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Hulst is CEO of the newly named Studio Business Group, which includes all of PlayStation’s first-party teams, plus covers the development of PlayStation IP onto other mediums, such as TV and film. Hulst was already head of PlayStation Studios. He was previously the co-founder of Horizon and Killzone developer Guerrilla Games, which was acquired by Sony in 2005.

"I am thrilled to lead the studio business group and continue to build on our success with PlayStation 5, while preparing for the future,” Hulst said in a statement. “The video game industry is one of the largest entertainment industries in the world and has been built on the marriage of content and technology, and I look forward to continuing to push the boundaries of play and entertainment.”

Hideaki Nishino will lead the Platform Business Group, which includes console hardware, technology, accessories, PlayStation Network and third-party relations (covering major publishers and indie studios). He was already SVP of Platform Experiences. He’s been part of the Sony business since 2006, holding numerous roles at Sony Network Entertainment, Sony Corporation and SIE.

"We will continue to connect players and creators through world-class products, services, and technology," Nishino said. "We always strive to grow our community even bigger with innovation in every area at Sony Interactive Entertainment.”

"I am honored to be appointed such an important role alongside Hermen. By working more closely together, we will be positioned to build incredible experiences for an ever-expanding audience now and in the future."

Both leaders will report to Sony Interactive Entertainment chairman Hiroki Totoki, who has been acting CEO of the division since Jim Ryan stepped down from the role at the end of March. Totoki is also president, COO and CFO of Sony Group Corporation. The latest changes will take effect from June 1st.

“Sony Interactive Entertainment is a dynamic and growing business that delivers incredible entertainment experiences through the connection of content and technology," Totoki said. "These two leaders will have clear responsibilities and will manage strategic direction to ensure the focus remains on deepening engagement with existing PlayStation users and expanding experiences to new audiences."

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