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The analysis to find the Switch 2 release date
(and this particular edition might give a hint)
So, one of the burning question in the gaming world over the past years has been about the Nintendo Switch successor, and when it will release. Honestly I don't know either, but I believe we can deduce from Nintendo's strategy over the past years, which timeframe they will be targetting.
First of all, I run an analysis on the big games Nintendo released over the past years. I took the bigger releases, those that are strategically placed for each fiscal years, whereas other releases can be most easily shuffled around to fill up the release schedule.
The idea was to see, that for these 10m+ sellers from established franchises, whether there were patterns:
Each franchise/sub-franchise has its own color schemes and I used MC weekly naming scheme.
Let's talk of the obvious first:
There's a clear pattern on Week 46 with 4 Pokémon releases. Only Arceus released at a different time.
Mario Party games all release on October, which is also confirmed by Jamboree, but not at the same week.
The new Mario games are also October releases
Both Splatoon games are Summer releases and 3 might have targetted the same splot than S2 before the XC3 swap.
Therefore, we can argue that some franchises have their preferred spots.
There's also another concentration on Week 17 but only 2 releases can easily be a coincidence, unless...
Week 17 or Golden Week, was chosen for 3 big releases
Indeed, one of the most recent development for Nintendo in terms of handling their big releases is that they release limited hardware two weeks before. We saw that with games like Pokémon, Splatoon 3 or Tears of the Kingdom.
Therefore, if Tears of the Kingdom released on May 12th, it was because of the start of Golden Week two weeks before!
Unconvinced that Nintendo would take Golden Week into account to set the release date of a worlwide hit like Tears of the Kingdom?
Well, the Zelda OLED launched like all Nintendo related things on Friday,April 28th ... at the exception of Japan where it launched on a Saturday, the 29th, which coincided with the start of Golden Week!
The Nintendo Switch – OLED Model - The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom Edition will be available on April 29th, 2023, at a manufacturer's suggested retail price of 38,980 yen (including tax) *
https://www.nintendo.co.jp/corporate/release/en/2023/230328.html
To conclude !
Well, I think we can all agree that Nintendo has placed their key titles around 3 prefered spots over the Switch era (Golden Week, October for Mario and Week 46 for Pokémon). In opposition with the last two spots, the first one was used by different franchises which means that it is not a franchise-specific spot whereas we can argue it for October and Week 46.
Given the reports about Nintendo carefully planning their Switch 2 launch, they are probably using one of the spot they are confortable with.
Therefore, I genuinely believe Switch 2 has a good chance of being launched on 2025's Golden Week. Using Tears of the Kingdom as an example, it might even mean a Tuesday launch in Japan.
So what do you think? Am I unto something? Will Nintendo chose that window for its next console?
Switch 2 most likely won't release before 2025, how can Nintendo maintain momentum until then?
With recent reports of the Switch 2 releasing in March 2025 at the earliest (Nikkei), semi-confirmed by Nintendo's forecast (an aggressive 13.5m for Switch 1 during the FY) and communication in early May (Switch 2 news this FY but not at the June Direct), it is the time to follow up the first thread on Switch's transition and momentum.
https://www.installbaseforum.com/forums/threads/nintendo-is-going-into-next-gen-with-a-lot-of-momentum-and-still-several-cards-to-play.2249/
This is the second part of a bigger series. Today we will try to answer the following question : how can Nintendo maintain the brand's momentum when most of their workforce is focused on making games for the successor ?
General context
The current FY has been forecasted with a small decrease for Nintendo Switch sales, from 15.7M to 13.5M (-14%). This is a challenging forecast, especially since no game of the Zelda/Mario/Pokémon caliber has been announced yet. Tears of the Kingdom was a big driver of Switch sales last FY. This is paving the way for the Switch to eventually surpass the PS2 (160M) as the best-selling console of all-times.
On a broader view, 2024 is a challenging year for the industry, marked by struggling publishers with rounds and rounds of layoffs whereas Xbox is fighting to find its own identity and reigniting interest on the brand. Playstation 5 is nonetheless doing good to great but the FY will not be a busy one for PS Studio in terms of output and hardware declines are expected by Sony despite the rumored launch of a new model (PS5 Pro).
Lastly, Grand Theft Auto VI has recently been set for a Fall 2025 release and won't disrupt the current FY.
In this context, there are ways for Nintendo to keep momentum around their IPs and Switch brand :
Games, obviously
Audiovisual / mobile content
Bundles, price promotions ... and a new revision ?
Potential Nintendo Switch games
When it comes to the upcoming Switch release schedule, let's resume the facts:
There are 3 Switch games dated, all between May and July (Paper Mario, LM2 HD and NES WC)
There are two other Switch games announced, Metroid Prime 4 (TBD) and Pokémon Legends Z-A (2025)
Nintendo's president announced the company would be holding a Nintendo Direct in June, its first of the year.
Given the upcoming launch of the successor and Nintendo's current output, it seems like there is a clear pattern of what games they deem fit to release at this point of the Switch lifecycle. The games are mostly externally developped, not graphic intensive showcase/not laser focused on the core audience, and are mostly remakes.
Let's think of their options in that context:
Tomodachi Life (3DS, 2013)
Probably the IP with the highest potential that still didn't make its way on the Switch. It has been more than a decade since the release of Tomodachi Life. It was a top 10 best-selling game on 3DS with over 6,7M units sold. The audience is there and has been expanded with the smashing success of Animal Crossing: New Horizons. It could be a great Holiday release.
Another big IP missing a new game on Switch is Donkey Kong. There have been multiple reports of Nintendo trying to find a home for the big Ape, with little success. It seems like they have taken things in their own hands with EPD Tokyo (the usual 3D Mario team) recruiting for a 2D game. The franchise will also be on the spotlight this year with the opening of dedicated section in Nintendo's World, Nintendo's own amusement park. Coul be another great Holiday release.
Metroid Prime 4 is a tricky question since it doesn't fit the profile of games mentioned before. Some could argue that it could be a great cross-gen release and it will ultimately depend on what Nintendo has in store for the Switch 2 launch. Still, the game has been rebooted in Late 2018 (with an official announcement in January 2019) and should be very close to completion. Metroid Prime 1 HD also showed how good the game could look on Switch 1 too.
(Examples of some previous Switch remakes/remasters)
Lastly, they could release more remakes/remasters as those can be easily outsourced and developped more quickly than full blown games. They are multiple options on the table :
Fire Emblem Remake, as Shadow of Valentia was a 2017 release.
Zelda remasters like Wind Waker and Twilight Princess which are amongst the few games that were not ported from the WiiU
Metroid Prime 2 & 3 ? In case MP4 isn't for this year.
Bandai Namco is working on a Nintendo remake, is it the right time for it ?
Remasters/remakes of dormant franchises like Star Fox, Golden Sun or F-Zero ?
Pokémon Remakes ? 2024 looks to be another off year for the franchise, or is it ?
These remasters/remakes don't have the same level of potential, ranging from 1m to 15m but could provide a nice swan song for the Switch.
Audiovisual / mobile content
Nintendo also have the option to rely on mobile (like in in 2016 with the GO craze) to keep its brand power up during the transition. As such we can mention the upcoming Pokémon TCG mobile release that should generate excitement and millions of downloads.
Pokémon Pocket, 2024
Still, GO isn't something you can expect to replicate and it seems like Nintendo has other plans. Indeed, in the recent financial briefing, and following the acquisition of Nintendo Pictures, they admitted to be working on audiovisual content beyond the theatrical releases. Could be expect a show or any kind of content to be released this year based on Nintendo IPs ? There are countless examples of big boosts following such releases (Witcher, Mario, TLOU, Fallout...).
Bundles, price promotions ... and a new revision ?
This year we will need to implement various initiatives to sell the forecasted number ofNintendo Switch. During last year's holiday season, we sold hardware bundled with software, and we also conveyed the appeal of having multiple units of Nintendo Switch in a household. We plan to implement various initiatives to approach 13.5 million units of sales in the current fiscal year as well.
Nintendo, May 10th 2024, Q&A
The 13.5m forecast for the Switch this FY is challenging and Nintendo mentioned how it could reach that number. One of the key strategy is to increase the number of Switch per households by catering to families and kids. How could they convince people that didn't jump in yet ?
By lowering the entry barrier
Offering a new value proposition
There are multiple ways Nintendo could try to lower the entry barrier. The thing to keep in mind is that you don't want to devalue your product when the successor is near, Switch maintained its launch price in Japan/US for so long after all. Therefore, they use of bundles and temporary price cuts (during the Holidays) could be the way to go. Options like a definitive price cut and/or a Select line doesn't make much sense before the successor release (after is another topic altogether).
It is a me, the Mario Kart Bundle ! Edition 8 ?
Lastly, Nintendo will want to speak to this audience today and after the successor's release, which will probably be too pricey initially for kids and most families. In the past, this has often translated to the release of a cheaper revision at the tail end of the system life :
The new Nintendo 2DS XL launched to replace the n3DS models as a cheaper alternative, scrapping the 3D in the process
A new revision definitely could help Nintendo to reach its target while expanding its audience to families and kids. If the strategy is to increase the number of Switch per household is it going to build on the main model (like the 3DS) or the cheaper one ? Is 2024 the right timing for a revision or is better for after the Switch 2 launch ?
To conclude, it does seem like 2024 is going to be a big transition year for Nintendo, and as such needs to be managed well to keep interest around the brand and its ecosystem high while we wait for the Switch 2. However, the competion struggles and the overall 2024 release schedule is giving them enough air to exist. The upcoming June Direct will shed the light on their plans for 2024 and will tell how easily their upcoming games will generate sales and hype without taking away from what could be Switch 2 launch window games. They have ways beyond games to deliver (2016 was a great example of that between the 3DS, Go and the NES Mini) so it will be interesting to see how things will unfold.
In light of all that, how do you think Nintendo is going to balance things out between the need to keep the momentum going and the will to push as hard as possible the Switch successor ?
Akira Toriyama passed away... let's share our appreciation for his legendary work
The world is still under the shock after the news of Toriyama's passing broke yesterday. His cultural impact and significance cannot be put into words, and I won't risk it.
Still, looking at the various messages of love, and thankfulness, both within and outside of Install Base, I thought we could take a time to reflect and show our appreciation.
As you may have noticed, and thanks to the incredibly talented @P.Scoop, we designed a new logo to show IB's love of Toriyama's work, which shaped all the industries we are following here : gaming, mangas and BO. As a result, I know he meant a lot for our members.
So, through his work, what did Toriyama bring to your life ? Is there any memories you would like to share ?
Personally, there are so many memories from my childhood (reading the mangas in my bed until late into the night, watching the movies at a friend's house, buying Dragon Quest VIII because it came from Toriyama and loving the game...) but also after that, through the DQ franchise, the DB Super arc and the hype final with Jiren, the Broly movie in theater and so much more.
I think I managed to spread that love around too, with friends falling in love with Dragon Quest Builders, my fiancé discovering Dragon Quest XI and the charismatic designs he made. It is pretty easy tho, given how much his work is heartwarming in many ways.
What else, can I say that he didn't draw better ?
Nintendo is going into next gen with a lot of momentum... and still several cards to play
As we slowly go into 2024 and a new era for Nintendo with the expected arrival of its next platform, it is the perfect time to sit and think about Nintendo's current position in the gaming landscape.
Exceptional momentum
2023 was supposed to be a pivotal year for Nintendo. It is the year that marked the company's expansion in Movies, with its most iconic brand, and the launch of the much anticipated sequel of Breath of the Wild.
So on the one hand, you had a big unknown despite Mario and Illumination's pedigree. On the other hand, you had one of your master cards, the follow-up to a breakthrough hard to dissociate to the Switch success story itself.
April: From Mister Videogame to Mister Movie?
The Super Mario Movie project was in the works for several years. As you well know, Nintendo's first foray into the movie scene was a failure. It pushed the company to pull the plug on that initiative and encouraged them to keep a tighter leesh on their IPs.
When their partnership with Illumination was announced, it both raised financial hopes and concerns. The studio was famous for both its BO successes (The Minions, Despicable Me...) and its critical shortcomings.
Saying that the anticipation and apprehension was high before the first trailer of the movie would be an understatement. It eventually happened through a dedicated Direct (a great symbol of the synergies between Nintendo's gaming culture and its movie initiatives).
I could go on and on about the Movie's roaring success but it is a topic for another day. What's certain is that the movie grossed $1.3B worldwide, and expanded Nintendo/Mario reach beyond what gaming can offer.
It was the first punch, in April, that would put Nintendo's business into an exceptional shape during that quarter and generate ton of momentum.
May: Tears of the Kingdom
Breath of the Wild was a breakthrough for The Legend of Zelda series, far exceeding previous entries. During the 6+ years gap, it continued to sell steadily from less than 3m units in its launch quarter to more than 10 times that amount.
Expectations were high for its direct sequel, Tears of the Kingdom, as fans waited impatiently for years as Nintendo slowly revealed more detail on the latest entry.
(Credits to Peleo, numbers by the end of 2022)
However, there were some questions too, the novelty factor faded away and the Switch was just entering its 7th year on the market by showing more and more signs of its aging hardware. How important Tears of the Kingdom would really be for Nintendo ?
It didn't take much time for the answer to come, from the launch of a special OLED edition, to the actual launch and Nintendo's official PR only two weeks passed by.
Tears of the Kingdom managed the extremely difficult feat of matching BotW's critical reception, set a record for launch sales for Nintendo during one of the calmest month of the year (most records were set in the Holidays previously) and of boosting hardware more than 6 years after its launch:
Zelda significantly raised the Switch baseline, defying cyclical decline
Switch sales rose worldwide during the quarter, to reach a very strong 3.91M units during Mario & Zelda launch quarter, a 12% growth YoY and simply the biggest outside of the Covid boost in 2020/2021. It puts Nintendo into a very comfortable position to reach their 15M forecast for the whole fiscal year since already 26% of the target is reached.
Even if it utlimately slowed down, at least on the hardware front, the momentum is very strong for an ecosystem that old and the reveal (+ now launch) of Super Mario Wonder confirmed that Nintendo would ride this wave throughout the Holiday season. They are therefore ending 2023 in a very favorable position.
So, with 2-3 significant launches in 2023, did Nintendo blow off their load and is going into 2024 empty handed ?
A remake of Paper Mario: The Thousand Year Door was Nintendo's biggest announcement during September 2023's Nintendo Direct
We are currently mostly in the dark on the pipeline front. Games are key to have a successful hardware transition, it was abundantely clear for the Switch itself, so what could Nintendo really be preparing for its next console launch window ?
2017-2024: Waiting for Mario
It might sound ludicrous, given the amount of Mario related content we got since April 2023, between the movie, a new 2D Mario, a new Peach subseries coming this March, and a meaty slate of remakes. However, there's Mario and Mario, and for Nintendo, two Mario subseries are treated very specially. Those two Mario subseries have been mostly dormant since 2017, at the exception of new (but mainly outsourced) content between 2021 and 2023.
For waiting right ? (excerpt of the final Mario Kart 8 Deluxe Booster Pass credit scene, November 2023)
Mario Kart and 3D Mario have been two of the biggest cards of Nintendo's playbook:
The Mario Kart franchise has hit incredibly massive mainstream appeal ever since its shift to 3D. However, ever since the DS/Wii, the franchise reached new heights, being the best-selling games on every Nintendo platform ever since (3DS, WiiU, Switch).
For 3D Mario, the return to the sandbox formula combined with the Switch's incredible success has put the subseries to a new level. Trailers of Super Mario Odyssey remain, to this point, the most watched for a Nintendo game (55M for the reveal trailer, 41M for the E3 one in Nintendo of America YT account).
Those two massive assets for Nintendo, among the top 5 of best-selling Switch games with 57m units sold for Mario Kart and 27m for Odyssey (as of September 2023), are however pretty much dormant every since. The studios behind these games have not released a new console game since June 2017 (ARMS from the MK team) and October 2017 (Odyssey, from EPD Tokyo). There have been some work done tho, as mentioned before.
They are two of the cards, on Nintendo's sleeves, to deliver a smooth and exciting transition. For Mario Kart, the anticipation is even grander since 8 initially launched in 2014.
2023 : Pivotal year for big Western IPs ?
Funnily enough, it is partially when the Switch entered its last years (and with PS5/Xbox gaining momentum) that the signs for upcoming and meaningful Western 3rd party support were the clearest.
The latest FIFA entry, called EA FC 24, has been moved to the Frostbite engine after years of Legacy support (since 2019)
Hogwarts Legacy, 2023's highest selling game, has been released on Switch despite initially being PS5/XB/PC only, a clear sign of the effort invested in order to make the port happen. Sales of the game on Switch have been extremely strong since its launch.
As the ABK acquisition closed this year, it is now confirmed that Call of Duty will make its grand return on Nintendo console(s) next year after a decade+ of nothing.
While the reasons behind each of these Switch ports are different, it does position the upcoming platform into a very favorable position. They won't get everything, but they'll get the games that matter the most for mainstream audiences (with GaaS support being also strong). The only remaining member of the holy trifeca, which carried the PS/Xbox since the PS3/X360 era, is Grand Theft Auto. Its presence or absence will have an impact for 2025 sales and beyond.
GTA VI is a big question mark, with a 2025 release date, it is ideally placed to generate momentum for a new console, only a dream ?
A few risks
Risk of delay - while the mometum is very strong for a console that old, the Switch still slowed down significantly this Holiday season despite the release of Super Mario Bros. Wonder. If the successor slips to 2025 (because software isn't ready for instance), then 2024 might be a big struggle.
Pricing - The Nintendo Switch released in 2017 at 299$/330€/32.980Y but since then, there has been a big inflation happening and the OLED (which is a bit more expensive) is still the model with the lower margins. An increase is therefore expected, at the risk of cutting a part of Nintendo's audience. The low Yen might also make the jump higher in Japan, which would threathen domestic sales (on which several 1st/3rd party franchises on Switch relied on). The way they'll handle the Switch after its successor launches will be a key aspect to make the smooth transition they are looking for.
No new Zelda game for a while - Tears of the Kindgom released in 2023 with a 6 years gap with Breath of the Wild. This is one of Nintendo's biggest assets both comercially and critically, putting the franchise in the league of other huge hardware movers. This also fills a big hole in Nintendo's library, with very few open world games coming from 3rd party publishers (those don't usually scale down well on lower powered devices). So when will the new open air Zelda release ? Probably not before 2028, and that's with Aonuma confirming that no DLC will release for Tears.
To conclude, it does seem like Nintendo is potentially in a very good position to launch a new platform in 2024. 2023 is ending on a high note for the firm, which closed the year at the highest market cap of its whole history. Confidence is high but I'd like to take this occasions to ask you, in your opinion, how Nintendo could ensure the best transition possible, and how could it solve the risks I mentioned and/or the ones you have in mind ?
2024 will be a very exciting year for that very reason, speculating and ultimately knowing Nintendo's grand plan for a very important "smooth transition".
A Sales Story | E12 | Cities: Skylines
An inventive, original game is released into the world by a creative and highly-motivated studio. Through critical acclaim and gradual word of mouth, said game proceeds to become a hit franchise, eventually inspiring spin-offs, copycats, and heralding an entirely new genre. But some of these franchises lose their way leaving a hole in the industry. Recognizing the opportunity to fill this hole, an enterprising team of independent developers begins work on its own game, intended as a spiritual successor to capture the magic of the original.
It's a tale as old as video games themselves, and is also the story of SimCity and Cities: Skylines.
For those unaware, Cities: Skylines is by far the most popular city-building game ever to have existed. It has held this record since 2015, and no other game in the genre has ever come close to matching its sales. However, for Cities: Skylines to exist in the first place, it required the rise and fall of SimCity, one of the most unique and influential franchises in the history of video games.
The Birth and Death of SimCity
Released in 1989, SimCity was a city-building game developed by game designer Will Wright at Maxis. It began as a level editor for another game he was working on and it grew into a city-builder and created our modern understanding of the genre. Despite doubts about its potential, SimCity became a huge commercial and critical success. The first game sold extremely well on both PC and console selling a total of 1.98 million on the SNES, with 900,000 of those sales coming from Japan.
An image of the original SimCity showing what would be iconic features such as the zoning system and traffic management.
Over the next decade, the franchise continued to receive games that built upon the success of the first, with SimCity 2000 released in 1993, selling 3.4 million copies. SimCity 3000 was released a few years later in 1999 and sold 5 million units, with SimCity 4 following in 2003. But after that the franchise took an extended leave of absence, and outside of a handful of spin-offs and smaller games for other platforms, a period of quiet ensued for SimCity.
In 2012, after nearly a decade of silence, it was leaked and then announced that Maxis Emeryville was developing a new game titled simply "SimCity". The game was presented as a return to form, and an E3 2012 gameplay trailer that showed off actual footage was generally well received. But, some noted a curious feature that was being advertised: SimCity was going to be an online game and require a persistent Internet connection to play. This led to concerns about access to the game and how the online DRM mechanism might impact the user experience. For its part, Maxis assured fans and industry watchers that the online component was necessary for the game to function, and attempted to assuage concerns.
SimCity with its modern UI and visuals, as well as its small map, which would be a major complaint about the game.
This new SimCity launched in March 2013, despite concerns over the stability of Maxis's servers, in what would become one of the most infamous online launch disasters in the history of video games. So overloaded were the servers for the title that media publications couldn’t even access the game to review it. And once they could, SimCity's systems and design were heavily criticized, leading to a firestorm that would torpedo any chance of success. The game continued to limp along, with post-launch support fixing some of its issues, and received one last update in 2014, which finally added an option to play offline. Unfortunately, this was too little too late, and while SimCity did end up managing to sell 2 million units over the course of its life, this was far below the franchise's prior heights and Maxis Emeryville was shut down in 2015.
However, just a week after Maxis Emeryville was shut down, an entirely new city-building game was released into the world—one that would rise from the ashes of SimCity to achieve what it had failed to do and it began in the most unlikely of places.
The Road to Cities: Skylines
Colossal Order is a Finnish studio that was relatively unknown in the early 2000s. The company was founded in 2009, largely by mobile game developers, and began development on its first game, Cities in Motion. Colossal's early projects were smaller-scale games focused specifically on designing transportation systems within a city. While they contained some of the features that define city-building games, they weren't nearly as complex as a feature-complete city-builder.
While developing Cities in Motion, Colossal Order required a publisher and ended up partnering with Paradox Interactive, a company best known for grand strategy games. Paradox was still a small company, with their newest game being Victoria II, and Crusader Kings II coming out in 2012 between the two Cities in Motion games. Around this time Paradox had begun to expand its publishing business and would publish other successful games like Mount & Blade and Magicka. The Cities in Motion games fit well into Paradox's catalog as another PC game built around strategy and simulation, and while the first Cities in Motion didn’t have a particularly notable launch in 2011, peaking at only 1,170 users on Steam and a Metacritic score of 70, the small team and modest development budget meant that it was enough for a sequel to be greenlit.
Cities in Motion 2 fared slightly better with 1,783 peak concurrent users and a 72 on Metacritic, but this modest growth compelled Colossal Order to aim higher with its next project. This is where the story of SimCity intersects with Colossal Order's.
Just a month before Cities in Motion 2, the 2013 SimCity released, and its failure sunk the franchise, leaving a significant hole in the market for a new city-builder to take its place. In an interview, the CEO of Colossal Order, Mariina Hallikainen, discussed how the studio had wanted to make a city-builder previously, but that Paradox Interactive had been concerned about having to compete with the juggernaut that was SimCity. As luck would have it, after SimCity's failure, Paradox did see the potential to address a gap in the market, and Cities: Skylines was greenlit for development.
Launching Cities: Skylines
After a year of development, Cities: Skylines was revealed in August 2014 with a trailer at Gamescom that showed off a game similar to SimCity but advertised a major change in the ability to play offline—a clear swipe at the competition. The trailer amassed an impressive 629,000 views on Paradox’s YouTube channel—more than the trailer for Europa Universalis IV and far more than any trailer for Cities in Motion.
This screenshot shows Cities: Skylines' strong similarities to SimCity as well as one of its defining new features, districts.
Cities: Skylines also benefited from effective marketing on Paradox Interactive's part. The publisher had grown a fair bit since its early days, and the success of Crusader Kings II and Europa Universalis IV would work to the advantage of Cities: Skylines. (As an aside, both Crusader Kings II and Europa Universalis IV would also establish the famous—and sometimes infamous—DLC model that Paradox is now known for and which would later be applied to Cities: Skylines).
Following its release in March 2015, Cities: Skylines was an immediate smash hit. It peaked at 60,386 users on Steam and sold 250,00 units on its first day on the market; a new record for Paradox Interactive. Sales only continued to grow, doubling to 500,000 by the end of the week and doubling again to one million a month after release, making it by far the fastest-selling game that Paradox has ever published.
Cities: Skylines far outdid Colossal Order's previous games on Steam.
Strong reviews contributed to these incredible numbers, with the game receiving an 85 on Metacritic and an excellent user reception. Cities: Skylines was praised for being a true successor to SimCity while also bringing new ideas to the table. The game also had a strong impact on Paradox’s financials with them reporting a 241% increase in revenue and 442% increase in profits in 2015, and Cities: Skylines being credited as a major contributor to that increase. Such jaw-dropping numbers seem to have contributed to Paradox’s decision to go public in 2016 as in their IPO brochure they featured a graph demonstrating just how much they had grown in the past year, in part due to Cities: Skylines, and these remarkable results were only just getting started as Colossal Order continued to work on additional content.
Paradox’s financials show the dramatic impact of Cities: Skylines.
Long-Term Sales and Support
Since this was a game published by Paradox Interactive, the launch was just the beginning. Over the following years, Cities: Skylines would continue to receive numerous pieces of DLC that added meaningful new content to the game, including new features, mechanics, objects, and more. Mod support played a role in its success, too, with user mods featuring everything from original assets to major overhauls of the game's traffic system, keeping a passionate community engaged and happy. After an already impressive launch, both official and unofficial improvements and additions to Cities: Skylines helped the game maintain strong momentum, resulting in it selling 2 million units by the end of its first year on the market, surpassing the SimCity reboot, and eventually growing to 3.5 million units by its second anniversary in 2017. These numbers put it far above Paradox’s other successful games at the time with other games not even coming close. Despite being released a year earlier Europa Universalis IV had only sold 1 million copies by its third anniversary with Crusader Kings II taking two years to reach the 1 million milestone. Even newer games like Stellaris and Crusader Kings III needed 4 and 3 years respectively to reach 3 million copies, which was still far slower than Cities: Skylines.
Cities: Skylines and all its major expansion packs (the dozens of smaller cosmetic DLC are not pictured).
The game also received console ports from Tantalus around this time with an Xbox One version released in April 2017 and a PlayStation 4 and Switch version following a year later. While the console versions appear to have had minimal impact on sales (the next milestone announced was 5 million units on PC alone and 6 million units on all platforms a year after), Cities: Skylines eventually grew to sales of an astonishing 12 million units sold across all platforms in 2022, which puts it far ahead of any other city-builder. An especially remarkable feat if you pause to consider the relatively small development team and the amount of DLC that has been purchased.
Cities: Skylines sales milestones, showing its incredible consistency in sales over time.
Conclusion
Games that try to follow in the footsteps of a more popular and established franchise often fail, but Cities: Skylines is one of a handful of exceptions where an "imitator" has far surpassed the original.
Ironically, the success of Cities: Skylines is now what would make it difficult for SimCity to ever attempt a meaningful comeback, due to just how dominant it has become in the market. Even more interesting is the fact that in March 2023, Paradox Interactive announced Paralives, a life-sim game not unlike The Sims, which itself spun out of SimCity back in the day. The announcement was also accompanied by the reveal of Cities: Skylines II, a game that saw its debut in October and, despite a rough launch, enjoyed an all-time peak of 104,697 concurrent users on Steam cemented the future of the franchise for many more years to come.
Astro Bot's UK sales (physical-only so far) aren't huge. Opening week is about a third lower than 2021's Ratchet & Clank: Rift Apart, but I expect a longer sales tail for Astro. It's certainly sold more copies in the UK in just 2 days than Concord sold worldwide
Thanks to DisturbedSwan, @mazi , @Lelouch0612 , @DarkDetective , @acezam , @FonSerra, @CaVaYeRo, @Necroxid, @sebbbbe, @Joxer, @MarcoP90, @Astral_lion02 and everyone else for their helpful contribution! Weekly Charts: The PAL Charts Aggregator for Sep, Oct, Nov & Dec 2023 |
Ladies and gentlemen and more, welcome to a new iteration of the PlayStation Store charts weekly threads.
As usual, I need to preface that while I can manage to be the thread opener for now, due to my other duties here on the forum as well as other circumstances I cannot guarantee that I will be able to be the main person handling these threads continuously. Still, since this is still a new initiative for the forum, I wanted to provide a starting guidance and framework for the users who will decide that they want to take over the threads in the future.
Speaking of which, *AHEM* (higher pitch, to get a reaction)
We are looking for people for the PS Store threads! More specifically:
- one main user who will handle the creation of the threads
- more users who are eager to contribute with the PS Store rankings from different countries
The call for volunteers is also more properly posted in the official topic for building Install Base; if you're eager to give your contribution and you think you're able to do so, don't hesitate to get in touch with the moderation team, including me!
And now, time for the rest of the OP's content. This time the starting infos and details will be under spoiler since from now on I'll also use the OP for the rankings / links to the previous weeks' threads.
STARTING INFOS AND DETAILS
Where can I find the charts that are posted in these threads?
a small window menu will open and you need to click on the "Buy games" tab.
This will bring you to the web page of the PlayStation Store. Now, click on the "Browse" tab right at the top of the page.
And thanks to this, you're now looking at the "Best Selling" ranking; this is the default option of the page. To check the "Most Downloaded" ranking instead, just use the Sort filter and click on the Most Downloaded tab.
Which charts will be posted?
As you might've guessed from the previous explanation, the two kinds of charts that we're aiming to watch closely are the Best Selling chart and the Most Downloaded chart; the former features games ordered by Revenue, while the latter is ordered by Downloads. More specifically, we're going to focus on the first page of each ranking (therefore, the respective Top 24 games). These charts capture revenue, sales and downloads across both PlayStation 4 and PlayStation 5 combined; this means that for games such as MLB The Show 24, available on both, its placement on the rankings will be the sum of its performances across the two systems.
While the intent of these threads is to focus on PS4 + PS5 charts, separate rankings for both are also available on the same PS Store page: just check towards the bottom on the page, in the "See more" section. Once you click on either the PS4 Games or PS5 Games tabs, you'll be redirected to a list of games that by default is ordered by Release Date; on there, just use the Sort filter to change the order into the two aforementioned options.
Important: Both rankings are characterised by specific caveats that need to be taken into account for having a better understanding of them
The Best Selling ranking includes the revenue coming from DLCs and MTXs alongisde full purchases (as highlighted by the likes of Fortnite and Genshin Impact being as high as they are)
The Most Downloaded ranking includes both downloads of games that are part of the PlayStation Plus catalog, as well as - going by experience - demos.
Additional infos on the charts
Contrary to other rankings, such as the Amazon best-selling charts and the current eShop charts, that are updated multiple times per day, the PlayStation Store rankings are refreshed only once every 24 hours.
As of right now, there isn't complete certainty about the trailing period the rankings are based on. By empirical observation, one week could be a good guess, but these threads may also become a good opportunity to get full clarity on this.
Recommendation: if you want to post the picture of the full Top 24s and if you're a Google Chrome user, lower your zoom on the page down to 67%; that should make you able to capture it in its entirety at a decent size for readability.
01./03. Call of Duty (Activision Blizzard)
02./07. NBA 2K25 (Take Two) [Pre-release]
03./02. Fortnite (Epic Games)
04./01. Black Myth: Wukong (Game Sciente Interactive Technology Co., Ltd.)
05./06. Star Wars Outlaws (Ubisoft)
06./04. EA Sports Madden NFL 25 (EA Sports)
07./05. EA SPORTS College Football 25 (EA Sports)
08./21. Genshin Impact (Hoyoverse)
09./08. Roblox (Roblox Corporation)
10./19. Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine II (Focus Entertainment) [Pre-release]
10./11. Valorant (Riot Games)
12./09. Grand Theft Auto V - PlayStation 5 - (Rockstar Games)
13./18. The First Descendant (Nexon)
14./12. NBA 2K24 (2K Games) [included with PlayStation Plus]
15./13. Minecraft (Mojang)
16./16. Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Siege (Ubisoft)
17./00. Dead by Daylight (Starbreeze Publishing AB) [included with PlayStation Plus]
18./11. EA Sports FC 24 (EA Sports) [included with EA Play]
19./15. EA Sports FC 25 (EA Sports) [Pre-release]
20./14. Overwatch 2 (Activision Blizzard)
21./00. Astro Bot (Sony Interactive Entertainment) [Pre-release]
22./00. Hogwarts Legacy (WB Games)
23./00. Visions of Mana (Square Enix)
24./22. Elden Ring (Bandai Namco Entertainment)
Most Downloaded (by downloads)
01./01. Fortnite (Epic Games)
02./02. Call of Duty (Activision Blizzard)
03./03. EA Sports Madden NFL 25 (EA Sports)
04./04. Black Myth: Wukong (Game Sciente Interactive Technology Co., Ltd.)
05./06. Cult of the Lamb (Devolver Digital) [included with PlayStation Plus]
06./05. EA SPORTS College Football 25 (EA Sports)
07./07. Destiny 2 (Bungie)
08./11. War Thunder (Gaijin Distribution)
09./12. Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Siege (Ubisoft)
10./08. Battlefield 2042 (Electronic Arts) [included with EA Play]
11./09. Enlisted (Gaijin Distribution KFT)
12./00. Star Wars Outlaws (Ubisoft)
13./10. Police Simulator Patrol Officers (astragon Entertainment GmbH) [included with PlayStation Plus]
14./15. The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition - (CD Projekt Red)
15./21. Overwatch 2 (Activision Blizzard)
16./00. SMITE 2 Alpha (Hi-Rez Studio)
17./18. Wild Hearts (Electronic Arts) [included with PlayStation Plus]
18./00. Multiversus (WB Games)
19./13. Fall Guys (Epic Games)
20./00. Dead by Daylight (Starbreeze Publishing AB) [included with PlayStation Plus]
21./00. The Crew Motorfest (Ubisoft)
22./16. WWE 2K24 (Take Two)
23./00. Risk of Rain 2 (Gearbox Publishing)
24./22. Diablo IV (Activision Blizzard)
We don't have digital data yet. And this is just the UK. But... it was a weak launch for Star Wars Outlaws at UK retail. Launch sales are 55% lower than what Star Wars Jedi: Survivor did. It was 15% bigger than Ubisoft Massive's last game, Avatar: Frontiers of Pandora (GfK data)
We're almost back to normal with the UK Charts following a few delays recently, and this week marks the debut of Ubisoft's divisive Star Wars Outlaws, which managed to beat the competition and claim the top spot.
By comparison, Emio - The Smiling Man: Famicom Detective Club hasn't made much of an impact upon its debut, settling in at number 22 behind the likes of Mad Max and Bluey: The Videogame. Were we expecting it to storm to the top given its niche appeal..? No, of course not. This is about what we had anticipated from the game's initial performance.
Thanks to DisturbedSwan, @mazi , @Lelouch0612 , @DarkDetective , @acezam , @FonSerra, @CaVaYeRo, @Necroxid, @sebbbbe, @Joxer, @MarcoP90, @Astral_lion02 and everyone else for their helpful contribution! Weekly Charts: The PAL Charts Aggregator for Sep, Oct, Nov & Dec 2023 |
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