Oh hey, that's me... well hello Install Base! Long-time lurker, first time poster. Thanks for welcoming me in, and for the great group of questions. I'll be back around 8AM Pacific to get rolling. Unfortunately for me, Ahmad set the bar pretty high with his Industry Q&A thread. So, I'll go get wired up on some caffeine and let's see what happens. Video Games!

Hi everyone, Congrats to Install Base on its third anniversary and thank you to the team for inviting me to do this Q&A. I was not expecting over 50 questions! I will do my best to answer as many as i can but please understand that i may not be able to answer all the questions or provide lengthy answers. I will also answer these questions across multiple posts, as it's difficult to answer everything in one go. Please feel free to respond to my answers and I'll try and join the discussion when I can! Ok, here we go: That's Zhuge news for InstallBase 1. Popular wisdom is that PlayStation is the leading console manufacturer/platform in MENA. Nintendo however cited the Mario movie as beneficial to expand and raise awareness in regions outside their 3 major areas (JP, NA, EU), and PC gaming is experiencing stable growth wordwide. Do the MENA markets in 2024 still look like "PlayStation-land"? 2. PS5 Pro is launching at a very high price and the next Nintendo platform is also expected to see a price increase over the current most expensive Switch model (the OLED). Do you expect the price increase to be a limiting factor in MENA for both hardware manufacturers in the future? 1. The PlayStation brand is still the market leader in terms of console market share. In fact, nearly 8 in 10 console gamers in the region have owned or played on a PlayStation console before. PlayStation was the first console brand to truly establish itself in the region and start fully localizing games into Arabic. Nintendo, which did not have an official presence in the region, recently partnered with a new distributor in Saudi Arabia which could see them increase share in the region. 2. Pricing will always be an issue for console platforms in a world where smartphones are ubiquitous, but there is demand for HD games that can only be played on console or PC. The GCC in particular is home to gamers with high disposable income + a growing entertainment sector, which is why consoles have done well there traditionally. The wider MENA region may be less accepting of increased hardware pricing. Great initiative! Questions: 1) Which is the main challenge and on the other hand the main opportuinity working in China for videogame development? Funding initiatives, domestic audience potentially huge, censorship... 2) Which is more likely to happen: Wukong-like exploding success to drive foreigner (Japanese, US, EU...) big publishers chasing Chinese market or big foreigner (Japanese, US, EU...) big publisher pouching Chinese talents and teams to develop "their own" games, still aimed primarily at their classic / domestic markets? 1. The main challenge in China is always going to come down to regulations, but increased competition and rising user acquisition costs are other notable points. Opportunities include the large domestic market, advanced development infrastructure at a relatively low cost, government subsidies and a large talent pool. 2. This is a difficult one to answer as both are likely and already happening. Foreign games have found success in China before, but Wukong represents evolving consumer preferences in terms of increased willingness to pay for premium singleplayer games. Therefore, we fully expect foreign game developers to explore this segment. At the same time, Chinese game development teams already play a large role when it comes to adapting global IP for smartphones, and we expect this role to evolve over time as well. Thanks for the Q&A Two questions regarding MENA region , 1- Recently Microsoft is doing actions that shows signs they they will leave the region regarding Xbox Console distribution and support in the region , Are the numbers really that awful for Xbox in the region that justifies that action , or the numbers doesn't Justify those actions and its just one of those Microsoft moments 2- It seems Saudi Arabia Public Investment was in Gaming Investment spree and building Internal Companies to produce AAA Games, they took shares in Companies and actually acquire a company like SNK and the rumored $2B Partnership with Embracer plus the intention to spend IIRC $18B as investments in gaming including an investment in a Major Company , but it has been a very long time since we heard anything from SPI gaming wise , either in Investments or in Producing games , we only heard about the eSports World Cup gaming wise , So do you think there is a shift in priorities happened or its just a temporary silence ? 2. It’s a bit of both. The current global gaming downturn has led to many companies re-evaluating their strategies, but at the same time Savvy and the PIF see this as a long term play. The acquisition of Scopely has been a huge success thanks to Monopoly Go and the Esports World Cup was a huge undertaking in and of itself. Savvy is still building out its gaming business and their CEO recently stated they have a major acquisition planned for 2025. They still have a budget to spend! Thank you so much for doing this! I grew up in the Middle East in the 90s/00s, and at that time gaming was dominated by the second-hand market. Less so in the wealthier Gulf countries, but much more so in Egypt and other North African countries where I lived. The most popular/important console that you and your friends talked about and likely used was whatever used to be popular in Europe/Japan a generation or two ago. How do you approach measuring and analyzing this market, if at all? 1. Niko Partners tracks the MENA market all year round to stay on top of trends. We conduct research and analysis through both qualitative and quantitative methods to build our market models, 5-year forecast, and gamer behavior profiles. This includes a survey of gamers in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt, as well as interviews with executives, daily desk research, focus groups, data from our partners and more. Thanks for the Q&A Do you think Nintendo needs to focus more on expanding their business into other Asian markets in the future? 1. Yes. This generation has shown that there is a notable market for the Switch in markets such as China and South Korea. Nintendo has certainly increased their presence in the region recently, but there is still some way to go if they want to solidify their presence there and reach more emerging markets. Thanks for the Q&A 1- Do you have information about game/game consoles sales in Türkiye?(import and official) (outside of mobile sector) 2- Are there any multiplayer game that you actively play? 1. Unfortunately, Niko Partners does not cover Türkiye at this point in time. However, we are always looking to add additional markets to our coverage! 2. I’ve always preferred singleplayer games myself but I do play a few multiplayer games from time to time, primarily in the sports and racing genres such as Rocket League or Mario Kart. I also try out a number of multiplayer games because of my job, but I rarely stick with them outside of viral hits like Among Us and Fall Guys which I end up returning to when I need to play something fun. 1-- In general, how does the market split look like in Asia and MENA (regional or example countries) for Nintendo, Sony, Microsoft, Steam (excluding mobile), or maybe console/PC? 2-- How did you become famous? 1. At a high level, Asia & MENA are very much mobile first with mobile games generating $58 billion in player spending in 2023, accounting for 68% of total revenue. PC is $22 billion, or 26%, while console is 6.1%. However, we note that the console figure does not include SEA, so it’s slightly undercounted. China also does a lot of the heavy lifting for mobile and PC. It’s no secret that Nintendo dominates in Japan, but the console also does very well in Singapore, South Korea and China. PlayStation dominates most other markets in the regions. While Steam is also the leader in terms of PC game distribution, Asia also has a large client-based PC game market. 2. I’m not sure if I’d classify myself as famous, haha. But I can certainly expand on how I entered the games industry. The short story is that I’ve always been a gamer since I was young, but did not consider it as a career choice at that time. I originally worked as an analyst in the telecommunications industry (was in sales prior to that) and started applying what I learned there to the games industry. I regularly posted on gaming forums, started a blog, and took an interest in Asian markets due to the growth there. I’m not entirely sure how this next part happened but in 2016 I was able to make a name for myself after writing about the China games market, which was not covered much in English at the time. This led to three market research companies in the games industry reaching out to me within a 3-month period to see if I would join them and I ended up joining Niko Partners in August 2016. Hi Daniel. 1- Do you see a new traditional portable system (handheld) as something viable for mass market for the big three (MS, Nintendo, Sony)? 2- Please tell your favorite games and consoles. 1. Potentially. However, any device would need to act as a companion device to an existing ecosystem, rather than have a standalone development environment and require dedicated games to be developed for it. This is why the Steam Deck and Nintendo Switch Lite have been successful. 2. This is a bit of a cliché at this point but my favorite game series is Dynasty Warriors. Outside of that I’ve always been into action-adventure style games whether it be Assassin’s Creed, The Legend of Zelda, Uncharted etc… That being said, as per one of my earlier answers, I’ll generally play games in a variety of genres. The PS2 will always be special to me. But the PS4 and Switch were also great! Excellent! 1: Hi Daniel, can you expound a bit about the PC storefronts in the Chinese market? Exactly what is the market size for WeGame vs Steam locally, are there other major Chinese storefronts and what is the market size for Chinese consumers using VPN and foreign stores? 2: As a fellow Koei Tecmo fan, I'm very interested in the performance for their console/PC games in Asia outside Japan. In particular their long running historical SLGs like Sangokushi and Nobunaga but also if there's a notable audience for Musou, Atelier and other newer action, rpg and otome brands? 1. Steam is the #1 PC game distribution in China. Nearly 80% of PC gamers in China that purchase premium games use the platform. WeGame is smaller when it comes to premium PC game distribution, but it’s also the platform that Tencent uses to distribute its F2P titles, which contributes to the 300m+ registered users and 80m+ MAU. Steam, like other PC storefronts, is accessible without a VPN in China. Various PC game community apps such as HeyBox and Sonkwo have also built large userbases by selling Steam keys. 2. I don't have a comment on this right now but might follow up later. 1) Analysts in South Korea have stated that consoles were having a big moment in the country since the COVID lockdowns (Switch in particular, but a rising tide has raised all boats, even if not in equal measure), stating that SK gamers were looking for richer experiences, but in post-lockdown, is there an indication that sales momentum has maintained itself for consoles relative to each device’s respective ages at market and that part of the market will continue to grow, or has the return of the PC bang diminished their presence in the market in a way that will see a decline in future hardware cycles? 2) Netease’s acquisition and studio creation pattern has given me the impression that they are preparing to become a global publisher of console games, from their own developers as well as other Chinese studios. Is that also a fair assessment of their ambitions in your professional opinion and might you have information that validates such a corporate initiative from them? 1. Console growth has certainly declined since the lockdown years, which can partially be attributed to the age of the current consoles on the market. That being said, we’ve seen an increase in multi-platform gamers in South Korea, with 58% of gamers now playing on more than one device. While this is primarily driven by gamers playing on both PC and mobile, the rise of console gaming has also been a contributor. 2. I would agree with this assessment. NetEase has traditionally excelled when it comes to PC MMO games and mobile game development, which has helped them become the #2 games publisher in China. As growth has slowed in China, many domestic companies have turned to the overseas market. Initial overseas expansion was on mobile, given their expertise on this platform, but more recently on PC and console. Chinese game developers are very aware that PC and console are very large platforms overseas and they’ve moved to support console game development through acquiring overseas console game devs and improving internal development capabilities. I have two questions if he can answer them: 1. If I can ask about platform holder strategies, then can you comment on Sony's grander strategy involving games for Switch and Switch 2, with games like Lego Horizon Adventures and now Freedom Wars Remastered on the way, are you aware of others on the way, and how much and how far we can expect Sony to go with this? Can I add Microsoft's version to this as well? They've been quiet on the Nintendo front since Grounded and Pentiment, with both Hi-Fi Rush and Sea of Thieves skipping Switch, and naturally Indiana Jones also skipping Switch. I would personally hope MS have more for Switch on the horizon, like say... the rumored Blue Dragon remaster? 2. How have Switch sales been compared to PlayStation 4/5 versions of games, specifically from Japan? There's clearly a lot of selling power of Switch ports of games since we still see lots of late ports like the recent Guilty Gear Strive and just earlier Ace Combat 7. I'm curious about your observation of sales data, particularly what's not immediately public, like what you may know of western sales and the like. Bonus question: ... how do you pronounce Zhuge? XD 1. The short answer is that Sony and Microsoft are increasingly responding to the reality of a console install base that hasn’t expanded from prior generations, both in terms of absolute sales and demographics. Its why console platform holders have focused on maximizing spending per user on their own platforms, whether through increased subscription pricing, premium hardware or $70 games. It’s also why they are exploring live services, PC, mobile and Switch in order to expand their audience, increase revenue, and drive higher profit margins. 2. I don't have a comment on this right now, but might follow up later. 3. Here’s a video for it: Ok, these are the answers I've been able to write today. I'll post more tomorrow and try and answer all of them by Wednesday! Do let me know if you would like me to expand on any of the above.

Brief introduction The Tales series is a JRPG series owned, developed and published by Bandai-Namco that started in 1995 on SFC with Tales of Phantasia, its main feature was to support a real time battle system on a separate plane which also allows multiplayer, pretty similar to a fighting game, unlike other JRPG who mostly used turn based battle systems. It remained a series staple for a long time, called “Linear Motion Battle System” due to the characters sticking to a single linear line to move at first (almost all 2D titles up to Hearts), then evolving to multiple lines (Rebirth, Tempest), 3D with as many lines as there are enemies (Symphonia), enabling free movement but with limitations (Abyss, Vesperia, Graces), free movement without any limitation but still linear movement as default (Xillia, Zestiria) until Berseria where complete free movement became the default moveset, a design choice that was kept on… Tales of Arise. Otherwise the series sticked to what made classical JRPG at the end of the XXth century Plenty of area and dungeons to explore A colourful cast of playable characters designed by famous mangaka (Kosuke Fujishima, Mutsumi Inomata mainly) featured in multiple animation cutscenes made by Studio IG first and then Ufotable An opening cinematic with a jpop song A lengthy scenario often dealing with religion, racism, ecology and various moral dilemma with notable amount of side quests Soundtrack composed by the renowned Motoi Sakuraba* (Valkyrie Profile, Golden Sun, Baten Kaitos, Dark Souls…) etc. While there are around** 17 main titles released in approximately 25 years, almost each entry is entirely separate from the others as they all are different stories with different characters set up in different worlds, like Final Fantasy or Dragon Quest they only share a common “backbone” described before and various common gimmicks such as items used, secondary NPC, the cooking system, victory quotes, skit dialogues, vague common mythology references, cameo battles, each character having one/multiple super attack, some gameplay systems like the signature move 魔神剣 / Majinken / Demon Fang, characters from different episodes do happen to meet on crossover titles up to this day (1 2 3 4) As such every new entry is mostly a clean slate, recognizable by its name and strong visual identity that made it stand out amongst others titles released at the same period Development process Historically the development process at the inception of the series wasn’t a smooth affair at all, developed by Wolfteam, a subsidiary of Telenet Japan, Tales of Phantasia wasn’t intended to be the first episode of a series at all, it was also scheduled one year earlier than its original release and was to be named Tale Phantasia. However due to strong disagreements between the developers and Telenet Japan, the game went through notable shifts in development and ended up pitched to different publishers, including Enix, before being picked up by Namco whose conditions ended up delaying the game release by a year as well as being the cause of the departure of a big part of the Wolfteam staff that left to create Tri-Ace (which went on to create Star Ocean, a brother game of sort to Tales of Phantasia). From there on though, it’s a bit easier to follow : Wolfteam became a dedicated team that made Tales of titles Until 2003 where Namco became the majority owner of the studio and officially renamed it “Tales studio” Namco then became the sole owner a few years later And chose to merge the Tales Studio with its main Bandai Namco Studios in 2012 ending up nearly 15y of a rather strong independence for the team making Tales of games Finally a last (recent) development that we learned about is how Bandai Namco Studios itself is structured in multiple sub studios with Tales of being the prerogative of Studio 3 (alongside IP such as Blue Protocol, Idolm@ster or Scarlet Nexus) how long that structure has been there is unclear but it likely emerged in the last few years and doesn’t necessary mean any developer from one Bandai Namco Studio wouldn’t be able to move to another one. It should be also be noted that for a decade or so Namco tried to diversify the IP and studio output, making unofficially two Tales team within the Tales studio, one lead by historical figures and unofficially named “Team Destiny” (which made all 2D titles as well as Tales of Graces) and another called “Team Symphonia” lead by Namco game designers (which made Symphonia, Abyss and Vesperia), the two teams having their own identity : Fujishima’s character design for Team Symphonia, Inomata’s for Team Destiny, 2D games for Team Destiny, 3D for Team Symphonia and having their own strong points (battle gameplay for Team Destiny, story and writing for team Symphonia***) Two main titles were also made almost entirely outside the Tales studio : Tales of Legendia from an internal team at Namco and Tales of Innocence from regular external partner Alfa System. It all ended up with Tales of Xillia in the late 2000's where only a single team remained to make Tales of titles once again. Release strategies and sales While the series initially had its debut on Super Famicom in late 1995 in Japan only, the reception sales wise wasn’t anything special, selling somewhere above 200 000 copies. But like most other third parties in Japan back then, Namco commissioned a second entry for the series due to release on PS1 in late 1997 : Tales of Destiny which mostly followed in its predecessor footsteps by retaining what made the core identity of Tales of Phantasia. And it was a resounding success as the game got close to 1M lifetime in Japan only which is still to this day the best selling title in the country, thanks to North American (1999) and Asian releases it also crossed the 1M threshold but worldwide sales were a footnote in the overall picture. Following that PS1 and PS2 got almost all following entries : first a japanese exclusive extended port of Tales of Phantasia (1998) got near 700 000 copies, then Tales of Eternia (2000) ended up around there as well with a North American release (2001)**** pushing its numbers by 100-200k, Tales of Destiny 2 (2002) followed on PS2 selling around 800 000 copies in Japan and close to 1M with its Asian SKU (with full Korean localization) and then came Tales of Symphonia (2003). By most accounts it was a peculiar title : First full 3D game in the series First Tales of title not being directed by Wolfteam veterans (but instead a former Tekken/Soulcalibur developer : Yoshito Higuchi) First time character designer Kosuke Fujishima returned after Tales of Phantasia And… a game planned as a GC exclusive. The same way Nintendo lost a fair amount of third party support during the transition from SFC to N64, it tried to build back up a lot of it going from N64 to GC, this is an entirely different story (whose most famous episode is the Capcom Five) so we won’t go into too much details but Tales of Symphonia was really treated as well as a first party title could on the console and that involved a console bundle, most likely financial incentives and, above all, a full localization/publishing/marketing effort led by Nintendo outside Japan. As Namco publishing arm was rather weak in NA and non existing in other regions it meant that for a good part of the world Tales of Symphonia was the first experience many would get of the series (a lingering effect that is still felt to this day… although getting smaller as time passed) and that’s what led to the foundations of the western audience of the IP. The match between Tales of and the GC ended up as pretty mixed overall, while western sales exploded due to the strong push of Nintendo (somewhere between 600 000 and 700 000 copies), japanese sales turned out to be lackluster, barely surpassing 300 000 copies sold when at the same time, as we saw before, PS1 and PS2 titles were selling double to triple that amount. Still, with more than 1M copies sold worldwide it was still remarkable numbers and it remained the best selling entry outside Japan, by far, for more than a decade after that. Nevertheless Namco first concern was its home market, and Symphonia GC proved to be an anomaly that they quickly course corrected with a PS2 port (2004) that got around 400 000 copies followed by further games on the Sony console with Tales of Rebirth (2004) 600 000 copies, the weird experiment that was Tales of Legendia (2005) at 350 000 sales, Tales of the Abyss (2005) 700 000 copies too and finally Tales of Destiny Remake (2006) 400 000 copies. Of all these games only Tales of Legendia & Tales of the Abyss left Japan and were released in North America (2006), both had negligible sales (<100 000) and the latter only at a budget price late into the PS2 lifecycle, 2D games back then being considered as unappealing for western audiences all 2D titles in the series stayed as Japan exclusive after Tales of Eternia on PS1 in 2001 (minus an EMEA only release for the PSP port of… Tales of Eternia (2006)) This is where things started getting confusing as far as support went for the Tales series. First, due to a strong push for japanese support by Microsoft, the first HD title Tales of Vesperia (2008) ended up an Xbox 360 exclusive with near simultaneous JP+NA release (EMEA being left in a limbo for a year as Namco was in the process of buying Atari's publishing arm for these markets). It was one of the best selling title on the console in Japan***** but due to a limited install base it only meant somewhere above 200 000 copies which was nowhere near enough for the series especially as the western release fell short of Symphonia success only reaching around 300 000 sales. At the same time spin off were still being released on PS2, PSP, while DS got main entries with Tales of Innocence (2007) / Tales of Hearts (2008), both selling 300 000 copies, and Wii was supported too with a spin-off sequel of Tales of Symphonia, Ratatroskr no Kishi/Dawn of the New World (2008), 250 000, and a completely original new title Tales of Graces (2009) at… 250 000 as well. If you followed things well thus far (which isn’t an easy task by all means, so let me praise you if so) you would notice that almost all of those later numbers are clearly lower than what the series was used to on PS1 and PS2. It was made worse by nearly all of them staying in Japan as well, except the Symphonia sequel which sold respectably in others markets, around 300 000, mostly riding on its predecessor popularity in western countries. Namco then did the same thing that they did with Tales of Symphonia : recoup the costs by porting it to a more desirable hardware owned by their audience in Japan, that is to say the PS3. Tales of Vesperia (2009) was first, it started stronger than on X360 and kept selling for years eventually surpassing 520 000 copies, it never left Japan. Tales of Graces F (2010) came next, with the same outcome, ending up north of 400 000 copies, it had a, at first unplanned, rather late western release (2012) whose sales numbers are assumed to be in the usual 300 000 range And came the turn of the first PS3 exclusive title, the grand return of Tales of in its home turf to celebrate the series 15th anniversary. Featuring: For the first time the collaboration of its two main character designers A switch to Ufotable for its animated cutscenes following the studio growing popularity and its lauded anime adaptation of Tales of Symphonia (coincidentally, Haruo Sotozaki’s directorial debut before he, and others, worked on… Demon’s Slayer) Dual protagonists with separate storylines (reminiscent of what was done with Tales of Destiny’s Director's Cut) and more… Tales of Xillia (2011) had an explosive debut sales wise with ~500 000 copies sold first week****** before it petered off a bit, barely surpassing 700 000 copies in the end due to a middling reception, an overall lack of content, visually being unimpressive for a PS3 exclusive, the beginning of the end for the series multiplayer feature and a battle system that lacked “punch” coming after the super fast and stylish Tales of Graces. Still, it was an incredible return to form for the series in Japan, back to where it was on PS2, the late (2013) worldwide localization didn’t set the charts on fire as much but sold in the same ballpark most previous attempts did, north of 400 000 copies, final shipment numbers seemingly ending up at 1.33M making it the best selling title worldwide to date. Only one year later the game received a direct sequel, Tales of Xillia 2 (2012), an incredibly fast turnaround for a new entry due to its heavy reuse of assets and systems from its predecessor, it also featured a fair amount of new contents originally planned for the first game, plenty of improvements left and right and especially for the battle system (possibly due to the presence of Tales of Graces battle designer, Tatsuro Udo) but being a direct sequel to a slightly unpopular entry released so quickly meant that expectations and potential were lower, it ended up north of 450 000 copies in Japan and sales outside Japan (2014) were also lower, due to being a sequel but also the series hitting some kind of saturation with 3 titles in a 1 year span (Xillia, the Symphonia remasters and Xillia 2), data are getting less accurate but it sold notably less than Xillia, less than Graces F and WW shipment numbers didn’t reach 1M It took a bit more than two years for a full new entry to come to PS3 once again, with Tales of Zestiria (2015) this time celebrating the series 20th anniversary. It was pegged as the IP first foray into an “open world” design of sort with wider area and seamless transitions between exploration and battles. Due to fan requests, on top of the collaboration between multiple character designers continuing, the soundtrack also featured both Motooi Sakuraba and Go Shiina's works, the latter who was linked to Tales through Tales of Legendia mostly but who gained popularity due to its unusual sounding themes on God Eater and others Bandai-Namco IP featuring vocals like Idolm@ster. Remember how things went a bit wrong between expectations and reality for Tales of Xillia? For Zestiria it was worse, much much worse. While its opening week was decent, close to Xillia 2, for a title coming at the tail end of PS3 lifecycle, its sales absolutely cratered beyond anything the series ever knew before, merely selling 50 to 60 000 copies after a 340 000 opening week. Why is that? A complete clash between ambition and execution: The “open worldish” aspect was oversold (and mostly consisted of wide empty area that took a while to traverse) The seamless transition lead to multiple technical and gameplay problems like framerate being cut to an unstable 30fps in battle, a first for the series whose main appeal was its dynamic battle system and a locked 60fps The camera was catastrophically bad frequently due to that seamless aspects and poorly adapted level design, sometimes being stuck into the wall or background elements with the player barely seeing a thing Multiplayer was even more an afterthought than before, its core gameplay mechanic, character fusion, entirely removing control from a potential player... If you add a, japanese centric, huge controversy surrounding the identity of the main female protagonist and confusing marketing with the aforementioned characters which lead to a voice actress doing an extreme form of apology with a public dogeza in front of a crowd and, more likely than not, the series producer to leave Bandai-Namco*******, a “collaboration” of composers that was really about each one of them working on their end and Shiina providing 14 spectacular tracks in its own CD for the OST (the third that is) that didn’t blend with Sakuraba’s at all You end up with an unfinished messy product that not only underperforms but also risks damaging your IP reputation long term. The irony however is that Zestiria was a big moment for the series worldwide, not due to the game itself but due to timing and platform strategy as it was the first time Tales of adopted a day 1 multiplatform release of sort outside Japan. The game debuted on PS3, as you’d expect, but also got a decent up port on PS4 and a satisfying Steam release for the series platform debut. Following an often noticed pattern of “First game of a series on Steam getting explosive sales” it was a big performer in both Europe and North America, official Bandai-Namco sales numbers at the end of 2020 putting it as the best selling title for the former at 481 000 sales and best selling single release of the series for the latter at 600.000 sales bringing its total WW number somewhere between 1.5M and 1.7M mark in 2020 (including the 400 000 copies of the PS3 SKU in Japan and later 20 000 copies of PS4 SKU + every sales it got in Asia and other regions, making it for a time the best selling Tales of worldwide) 18 months later came Tales of Berseria (2016) on PS3/PS4, its job was simple : fix everything that went wrong with Zestiria and build on what worked in its systems and lore. The extra development time it got compared to Xillia 2 allowed the game to feel much more “unique”, something necessary for what was story wise a distant 1000y prequel of Zestiria. It built back up some good will, had cross promotion with the currently airing Tales of Zestiria the X anime with a special Berseria episode and both game and anime featuring an opening by popular group Flow, they removed the seamless transition between exploration and battles, allowing 60fps gameplay once again, and featured an “anti hero” type of story that resonated well overall with the audience which meant that despite disappointing first week numbers in Japan, ~250 000, it was able to finish close to 400 000 copies sold in the end. Its fate in others markets was similar to Zestiria, an added Steam SKU, better reviews (79 to 72 for Zestiria on metacritic) meant that it mirrored Zestiria sales outcome, only being slightly behind in total worldwide sales in 2020 before, thanks to digital discounts, reaching 2M in September 2021 (while no further data was given for Zestiria it’s unlikely that it didn’t reach 2M at some point too), officially the first single release of a Tales of to do so, a milestone that was soon gonna be surpassed but that's another story, another tales to write down about... In blue the Original SKU sales in Japan, in red sales of late ports in Japan (not inc remasters), in yellow sales outside Japan By order of appearance for each color besides yellow (sales outside Japan again) : SFC, PS1, PS2, GC, DS, X360, PS3, Wii, PS4 Despite some hiccups here and there you can clearly see the long term trend of sales in the country The numbers mainly reflect which entry was localized and in which context, naturally Symphonia and Zestiria stand out ------------------------------------------------------------- Notes/Bibliography of sort * Shinji Tamura/Hibiki Aoyama was co-composer for a few titles up to Tales of Vesperia, his works included famous battle themes such as Fighting of the Spirit, Fatalize or Fury Sparks, in Tales of the Abyss a couple tracks were also done by Motoo Fujiwara, leader of music group Bump of Chicken, like Meaning of Birth or Finish the Promise, finally Tales of Innocence soundtrack was made by Kazuhiro Nakamura and Tales of Legendia by Go Shiina. ** The exact number is up to debate, as it’s not clear whether the full blown remake of Tales of Destiny on PS2 should count, or whether Tales of the Tempest is a main title (it was, until it wasn’t, and recently was reconsidered as being one…) and the status of others various others games that used to be considered as escort titles before. To be clear these 17 include, by order of release in Japan : Phantasia, Destiny, Eternia, Destiny 2, Symphonia, Rebirth, Legendia, Abyss, Innocence, Vesperia, Hearts, Graces, Xillia, Xillia 2, Zestiria, Berseria and Arise *** Ironically though the scenario often had to be “protected” by her writer Takumi Miyajima and producer Makoto Yoshizumi against the will of a notable part of the development staff **** The game was also called Tales of Destiny II in order to show clear continuity despite not being related to Tales of Destiny story wise at all ***** Only below Blue Dragon and marginally beaten afterwards by a long old rival : Star Ocean IV and long after by the MMO Monster Hunter Frontier as well as the long tail of Ace Combat 6 due to its budget reprints ****** At the time its FW was awfully close to another major JRPG released close to it two months later, Final Fantasy XIII-2, from a series considered to be clearly one or two steps above Tales of sales wise ******* Hideo Baba that is, he tried to bounce back at Square-Enix with his own studio that closed less than 2y after being established and, while never made official, he supposedly went on to work as executive producer of the rather unsuccessful Sakura Kakumei at Delightworks afterwards. As for Tales of Zestiria it should be added that Alisha being “sidelined” of sort was even directly addressed and changed in the anime adaptation Tales of Zestiria the X by having Alisha and Rose being of equal importance (1 - 2 - 3) Disclaimer : - All sales numbers are rounded up, for simplicity sake but also because some of them aren’t as accurate on top of never being made public. Still all of them were retrieved through trackers (Famitsu, Media Create in Japan, NPD GFK for other markets) official shipment numbers from the publisher (10M milestone of the series from Namco that detailed every SKU, milestones for a couple titles) or CESA. - Spin off titles (like the World subseries), remasters (Symphonia, Vesperia...), handheld late ports (Eternia, Destiny 2 & Rebirth PSP, Abyss 3DS) or... Reimagined entries (Innocence and Hearts on Vita) aren't discussed there because the focus was on the series main entries. Tales of Destiny Remake is a particular case as well but I chose not to mention it either, data for it is available so feel free to ask if curious - Some of those numbers sometimes also contradict each other a bit so accuracy isn’t 100%, it’s still more than good enough and the margin of error is slim enough that nothing would change the tone or analysis made towards the series sales numbers https://blog.tales-ch.jp/?_ga=2.9430581.1644708003.1560127813-96726022.1544788796&paged=10 Tales of blog Source for Studio 3 headcount https://www.bandainamcostudios.com/recruit/career/interview/12235

(and this particular edition might give a hint) So, one of the burning question in the gaming world over the past years has been about the Nintendo Switch successor, and when it will release. Honestly I don't know either, but I believe we can deduce from Nintendo's strategy over the past years, which timeframe they will be targetting. First of all, I run an analysis on the big games Nintendo released over the past years. I took the bigger releases, those that are strategically placed for each fiscal years, whereas other releases can be most easily shuffled around to fill up the release schedule. The idea was to see, that for these 10m+ sellers from established franchises, whether there were patterns: Each franchise/sub-franchise has its own color schemes and I used MC weekly naming scheme. Let's talk of the obvious first: There's a clear pattern on Week 46 with 4 Pokémon releases. Only Arceus released at a different time. Mario Party games all release on October, which is also confirmed by Jamboree, but not at the same week. The new Mario games are also October releases Both Splatoon games are Summer releases and 3 might have targetted the same splot than S2 before the XC3 swap. Therefore, we can argue that some franchises have their preferred spots. There's also another concentration on Week 17 but only 2 releases can easily be a coincidence, unless... Week 17 or Golden Week, was chosen for 3 big releases Indeed, one of the most recent development for Nintendo in terms of handling their big releases is that they release limited hardware two weeks before. We saw that with games like Pokémon, Splatoon 3 or Tears of the Kingdom. Therefore, if Tears of the Kingdom released on May 12th, it was because of the start of Golden Week two weeks before! Unconvinced that Nintendo would take Golden Week into account to set the release date of a worlwide hit like Tears of the Kingdom? Well, the Zelda OLED launched like all Nintendo related things on Friday,April 28th ... at the exception of Japan where it launched on a Saturday, the 29th, which coincided with the start of Golden Week! The Nintendo Switch – OLED Model - The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom Edition will be available on April 29th, 2023, at a manufacturer's suggested retail price of 38,980 yen (including tax) * https://www.nintendo.co.jp/corporate/release/en/2023/230328.html To conclude ! Well, I think we can all agree that Nintendo has placed their key titles around 3 prefered spots over the Switch era (Golden Week, October for Mario and Week 46 for Pokémon). In opposition with the last two spots, the first one was used by different franchises which means that it is not a franchise-specific spot whereas we can argue it for October and Week 46. Given the reports about Nintendo carefully planning their Switch 2 launch, they are probably using one of the spot they are confortable with. Therefore, I genuinely believe Switch 2 has a good chance of being launched on 2025's Golden Week. Using Tears of the Kingdom as an example, it might even mean a Tuesday launch in Japan. So what do you think? Am I unto something? Will Nintendo chose that window for its next console?

With recent reports of the Switch 2 releasing in March 2025 at the earliest (Nikkei), semi-confirmed by Nintendo's forecast (an aggressive 13.5m for Switch 1 during the FY) and communication in early May (Switch 2 news this FY but not at the June Direct), it is the time to follow up the first thread on Switch's transition and momentum. https://www.installbaseforum.com/forums/threads/nintendo-is-going-into-next-gen-with-a-lot-of-momentum-and-still-several-cards-to-play.2249/ This is the second part of a bigger series. Today we will try to answer the following question : how can Nintendo maintain the brand's momentum when most of their workforce is focused on making games for the successor ? General context The current FY has been forecasted with a small decrease for Nintendo Switch sales, from 15.7M to 13.5M (-14%). This is a challenging forecast, especially since no game of the Zelda/Mario/Pokémon caliber has been announced yet. Tears of the Kingdom was a big driver of Switch sales last FY. This is paving the way for the Switch to eventually surpass the PS2 (160M) as the best-selling console of all-times. On a broader view, 2024 is a challenging year for the industry, marked by struggling publishers with rounds and rounds of layoffs whereas Xbox is fighting to find its own identity and reigniting interest on the brand. Playstation 5 is nonetheless doing good to great but the FY will not be a busy one for PS Studio in terms of output and hardware declines are expected by Sony despite the rumored launch of a new model (PS5 Pro). Lastly, Grand Theft Auto VI has recently been set for a Fall 2025 release and won't disrupt the current FY. In this context, there are ways for Nintendo to keep momentum around their IPs and Switch brand : Games, obviously Audiovisual / mobile content Bundles, price promotions ... and a new revision ? Potential Nintendo Switch games When it comes to the upcoming Switch release schedule, let's resume the facts: There are 3 Switch games dated, all between May and July (Paper Mario, LM2 HD and NES WC) There are two other Switch games announced, Metroid Prime 4 (TBD) and Pokémon Legends Z-A (2025) Nintendo's president announced the company would be holding a Nintendo Direct in June, its first of the year. Given the upcoming launch of the successor and Nintendo's current output, it seems like there is a clear pattern of what games they deem fit to release at this point of the Switch lifecycle. The games are mostly externally developped, not graphic intensive showcase/not laser focused on the core audience, and are mostly remakes. Let's think of their options in that context: Tomodachi Life (3DS, 2013) Probably the IP with the highest potential that still didn't make its way on the Switch. It has been more than a decade since the release of Tomodachi Life. It was a top 10 best-selling game on 3DS with over 6,7M units sold. The audience is there and has been expanded with the smashing success of Animal Crossing: New Horizons. It could be a great Holiday release. Another big IP missing a new game on Switch is Donkey Kong. There have been multiple reports of Nintendo trying to find a home for the big Ape, with little success. It seems like they have taken things in their own hands with EPD Tokyo (the usual 3D Mario team) recruiting for a 2D game. The franchise will also be on the spotlight this year with the opening of dedicated section in Nintendo's World, Nintendo's own amusement park. Coul be another great Holiday release. Metroid Prime 4 is a tricky question since it doesn't fit the profile of games mentioned before. Some could argue that it could be a great cross-gen release and it will ultimately depend on what Nintendo has in store for the Switch 2 launch. Still, the game has been rebooted in Late 2018 (with an official announcement in January 2019) and should be very close to completion. Metroid Prime 1 HD also showed how good the game could look on Switch 1 too. (Examples of some previous Switch remakes/remasters) Lastly, they could release more remakes/remasters as those can be easily outsourced and developped more quickly than full blown games. They are multiple options on the table : Fire Emblem Remake, as Shadow of Valentia was a 2017 release. Zelda remasters like Wind Waker and Twilight Princess which are amongst the few games that were not ported from the WiiU Metroid Prime 2 & 3 ? In case MP4 isn't for this year. Bandai Namco is working on a Nintendo remake, is it the right time for it ? Remasters/remakes of dormant franchises like Star Fox, Golden Sun or F-Zero ? Pokémon Remakes ? 2024 looks to be another off year for the franchise, or is it ? These remasters/remakes don't have the same level of potential, ranging from 1m to 15m but could provide a nice swan song for the Switch. Audiovisual / mobile content Nintendo also have the option to rely on mobile (like in in 2016 with the GO craze) to keep its brand power up during the transition. As such we can mention the upcoming Pokémon TCG mobile release that should generate excitement and millions of downloads. Pokémon Pocket, 2024 Still, GO isn't something you can expect to replicate and it seems like Nintendo has other plans. Indeed, in the recent financial briefing, and following the acquisition of Nintendo Pictures, they admitted to be working on audiovisual content beyond the theatrical releases. Could be expect a show or any kind of content to be released this year based on Nintendo IPs ? There are countless examples of big boosts following such releases (Witcher, Mario, TLOU, Fallout...). Bundles, price promotions ... and a new revision ? This year we will need to implement various initiatives to sell the forecasted number ofNintendo Switch. During last year's holiday season, we sold hardware bundled with software, and we also conveyed the appeal of having multiple units of Nintendo Switch in a household. We plan to implement various initiatives to approach 13.5 million units of sales in the current fiscal year as well. Nintendo, May 10th 2024, Q&A The 13.5m forecast for the Switch this FY is challenging and Nintendo mentioned how it could reach that number. One of the key strategy is to increase the number of Switch per households by catering to families and kids. How could they convince people that didn't jump in yet ? By lowering the entry barrier Offering a new value proposition There are multiple ways Nintendo could try to lower the entry barrier. The thing to keep in mind is that you don't want to devalue your product when the successor is near, Switch maintained its launch price in Japan/US for so long after all. Therefore, they use of bundles and temporary price cuts (during the Holidays) could be the way to go. Options like a definitive price cut and/or a Select line doesn't make much sense before the successor release (after is another topic altogether). It is a me, the Mario Kart Bundle ! Edition 8 ? Lastly, Nintendo will want to speak to this audience today and after the successor's release, which will probably be too pricey initially for kids and most families. In the past, this has often translated to the release of a cheaper revision at the tail end of the system life : The new Nintendo 2DS XL launched to replace the n3DS models as a cheaper alternative, scrapping the 3D in the process A new revision definitely could help Nintendo to reach its target while expanding its audience to families and kids. If the strategy is to increase the number of Switch per household is it going to build on the main model (like the 3DS) or the cheaper one ? Is 2024 the right timing for a revision or is better for after the Switch 2 launch ? To conclude, it does seem like 2024 is going to be a big transition year for Nintendo, and as such needs to be managed well to keep interest around the brand and its ecosystem high while we wait for the Switch 2. However, the competion struggles and the overall 2024 release schedule is giving them enough air to exist. The upcoming June Direct will shed the light on their plans for 2024 and will tell how easily their upcoming games will generate sales and hype without taking away from what could be Switch 2 launch window games. They have ways beyond games to deliver (2016 was a great example of that between the 3DS, Go and the NES Mini) so it will be interesting to see how things will unfold. In light of all that, how do you think Nintendo is going to balance things out between the need to keep the momentum going and the will to push as hard as possible the Switch successor ?